The pricing may have caught MS by surprise, thus the lack of hard info for this "announcement" v. 2.0.
As for a second Showtime with a big screen iPod, I'd love for it to be planned, but why not announce now?! The resolution on the iTunesStore is there, the content is there, the screen tech and battery tech must be there - the only thing I can think of is that:
1. There is no planned videopod
2. The interface is so advanced that it can't be built yet.
I sure hope it is number 2, but I'm not confident in that yet.
The pricing may have caught MS by surprise, thus the lack of hard info for this "announcement" v. 2.0.
As for a second Showtime with a big screen iPod, I'd love for it to be planned, but why not announce now?! The resolution on the iTunesStore is there, the content is there, the screen tech and battery tech must be there - the only thing I can think of is that:
1. There is no planned videopod
2. The interface is so advanced that it can't be built yet.
I sure hope it is number 2, but I'm not confident in that yet.
I'm pretty much with you on this. Apple could be waiting for prices on the screen to come down. For all we know they are going to use an OLED, but it hasn't gone into production yet.
i'm hoping apple had two iPod announcements--the set they made sept 12, and another announcement or set of announcements re: a wide-screen iPod.
Rather than playing all their cards at once, they revealed a few.
this bluff prompted MS to reveal more about its Zune.
that allows apple to play its full hand and not be trumped by a later announcement. after all, we're all techies, and MS-or not, a bigger screen would be appealing to everyone who uses an iPod to view photos and vids, and the wireless feature will be fun to some.
this would put the strategic advantage back to apple. i hope that's the case. I can't see any reason the existing iPod couldn't harbor a larger screen oriented the other way instead. That change alone, it seems to me, would sustain iPod as the premiere device of its kind. it can be done. why not do it?
Hi, interesting points. The Sep 12 announcement was to consolidate it's lineup for the christmas buying season. iMacs are solidified, with Mac minis ready to rock dualcore at a good price. The iPod line was getting very stale, running about 9 months without an update and sales declined slightly in the past two quarters, IIRC. MacBooks, flying off the shelf. MacBook and MacBookPro just Yonahs will be fine going into the next three months. Merom iMac is sweet. MacPro - ready to kick some serious ass in Apple software suites, while waiting for the native Adobe/Macromedia software sometime March 2007-June 2007.
With the current Mac lineup, iPod lineup, dropped prices on cinema displays, and newly-injected energy into iTunes7 (hope they fix bugs in the next few months)!! things are looking great for the Oct-Dec 2006 quarter.
Now, this leaves Jan Macworld 2007 where there needs to be some interesting new stuff to keep sales going and kick off the start of 2007 on a good note. Updates here will be, iTV officially announced and shipping in Feb, updated MacBook to Merom, updated MacBookPro to Merom, some interesting other updates to the portables.
Then, here be the great opportunity for iPhone and also widescreen touch-based iPod Video (the "true" iPod video).
And, one more thing.
Setting such a stellar note in 2006, we *will* see some seriously interesting stuff come out of Cupertino in 2007 - albeit not at the breakneck pace of 2006, remember, I predict it will be a gradual, "sustaining" type of product release and consolidation through 2007, along with refinement and continual addition of content to iTunes Store. Mid-2007 iTunes7 can go 7.5 which will be based on a lot of feedback coming out of the "ReleaseCandidate2" style iTunes7.0.x.x
Whoa! Why did Apple introduce its movie store, and 640x480 video, without the widescreen iPod and without the iTV and without additional movie studios? Isn't that strange? Everyone thought that the movie store would come with at least one of the two. For Apple could've simply introed the iPod shuffle, new nanos, and updated iPod at the Paris MacWorld. There was no need to talk about or intro the movie store.
1. Is it because Amazon opened its store?
No, Apple announced Showtime before Amazon opened its store. So we believe Amazon opened because it knew Apple was opening its movie store (based on the invite picture). But if Apple had not announced Showtime, possibly Amazon would've waited some more.
2. So did Apple announce Showtime because it thought Amazon was ready? Did Apple have bad intelligence about what features and restrictions Amazon would have?
When CinemaNow and MovieLink introduced its stores, Apple did nothing. And I highly doubt Apple would not have known the studio restrictions placed on Amazon as they are probably the same restrictions the studios have been asking of Apple. So no.
3. Is it because Zune was coming? Did Apple try to focus everyone on movies so as to blunt the Zune message of sharing?
Maybe. And the iTV was to freeze the market?
4. Is it because Apple is trying to mislead MS into thinking that this is it for the iPod line for the Xmas season? Then MS intros the Zune at either the $299 or $399 price point (I've seen rumors that cover both), or now at the $249 price point to match the 30GB iPod. Upon which, Apple unleashes the widescreen iPod on Oct 23 (5th anniversary) at the currently empty price points of $299 and $399. Coupled with the fact that Apple has spent 11 months on the iPod to make a few power mgmt chip changes does lead to the conclusion that its focus has been elsewhere, namely, the widescreen iPod. But if it wasn't ready, Apple didn't have to say peep about the movie store. So the announcement of the movie store was to make it seem like there would be no more announcements on the iPod front. Possibly.
5. Is it because Apple could no longer wait to intro the iPod nano since the SanDisk Sansa 8GB was soon to ship? So it had to intro the nano. But it didn't have to intro the movie store or even the iPod update. Last year, it didn't do the iPod 5G until Oct. 11.
1. Apple does not usually play games with releases, pricing based on what others are doing. 90% of the time they are on their own schedule, 10% of that "intelligence gathering" is then factored into iSteve's vision.
2. Apple *cannot* introduce any other products for the Christmas season.
(A) This is it, people that buy in now will feel sorely cheated if newer products pop up just a month or two after they got their new stuff.
(B) Apple needs like I said above, backup and enough pipeline held back for Jan-March 2007. Particularly MacWorld January 2007.
3. Apple has spelt its vision clearly. Once more movies are available, along with the increasing release of TV shows, music videos, music, etc, but particularly *movies*, then the "true" widescreen video iPod will be really nice for the Jan-March 2007 quarter. Also iPhone then would be cool.
4. Apple needs to pace itself and not play guess-what guess-who guess-howmuch with other competitors. It has set its own pace clearly with the Mac lineup, and with the dominating iPod lineup. If Apple get's caught in races, eg. the catastrophic GHZ race, it risks getting caught with its pants down with regard to products that are not ready, or released to early, or ill-timed with seasonal buying patterns.
2. Apple *cannot* introduce any other products for the Christmas season.
(A) This is it, people that buy in now will feel sorely cheated if newer products pop up just a month or two after they got their new stuff.
(B) Apple needs like I said above, backup and enough pipeline held back for Jan-March 2007. Particularly MacWorld January 2007.
But last year they introed the nano in Sept, then followed with the iPod 5G in Oct. Some people felt cheated but there wasn't much of an outcry. So they've convinced you that there is nothing more coming before Xmas. But Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
If you haven't noticed, Apple has moved the iPod to a consumer schedule. Major refreshes in the fall for Xmas, minor intros in the spring (1GB nano this past year). The back-to-school Mac fills in nicely for the Jul-Sep quarter. The iTV, Leopard, and new Macs (matching new Intel chips) will bolster the Jan 2007 quarter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman
3. Apple has spelt its vision clearly. Once more movies are available, along with the increasing release of TV shows, music videos, music, etc, but particularly *movies*, then the "true" widescreen video iPod will be really nice for the Jan-March 2007 quarter. Also iPhone then would be cool.
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
640x480 looks great on my iBook G4 14" 933mhz - I just downloaded and watched ABC's Lost Preview thingy.
Also, movie studios will not allow anything less than 640x480 (what IS the real resolution?) if it is 16:9 then it's only 640x360 effective pixels.
Apple wants to start building momentum with movies now, and as more studios come on board, then BAM! widescreen 640x360 5" diagonal 16:9 "true" iPod Video. Macworld SF 2007.
But last year they introed the nano in Sept, then followed with the iPod 5G in Oct. Some people felt cheated but there wasn't much of an outcry. So they've convinced you that there is nothing more coming before Xmas. But Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
In that case that was separate iPod updates. Sep 12 was clearly a across-the-line iPod refresh, very very unlikely anything else before Macworld SF 2007.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005
If you haven't noticed, Apple has moved the iPod to a consumer schedule. Major refreshes in the fall for Xmas, minor intros in the spring (1GB nano this past year). The back-to-school Mac fills in nicely for the Jul-Sep quarter. The iTV, Leopard, and new Macs (matching new Intel chips) will bolster the Jan 2007 quarter.
Most certainly re: iPod schedule. This has cost them a bit in terms of slower iPod sales this year in the two calendar quarters before July-Sep 2006 or something like that. The iPod line was getting very stale. But Apple tweaking iPod to consumer schedule, yes. Agree with you in above paragraph except you are talking about MacBook for back-to-school Jul-Sep 2006. Also, new iMacs with new Intel chips (Merom) is for Oct-Dec quarter with follow through to Jan-Mar 2007 quarter. iTV, Leopard, "true" video iPod, maybe iPhone, certainly some new Macs(?) to carry through Jan 2007 an onwards....................
My main point is that Apple has done a stellar release of new Macs, iPods, and iTunes Store content in 2006. Alongside a full transition to Intel.
They better pace themselves, by letting Sep 16 2006 through to Jan 01 2007 sit as it is (changes mostly more movies to iTunes Store). Let people settle into the post back-to-school, Christmas season. Remember there is also a lot of demand to fill w.r.t. MacBooks and MacPro. And definitely new iPod nanos + iPod shuffle are teh sex for holiday gifts. Mac minis and iMacs holding the consumer line strongly.
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
It seems to me as though it isn't ready. I keep saying this, but no one is listening.
Apple may not have been able to wait any longer with the movie store.
If we are to believe that there are several new technologies involved, then there could easily be cost overruns, parts delays, design difficulties. We've been reading for several months that that is what is happening.
It's like the military, or the space program, except on a much smaller scale.
One question is what type of screen will it use? Exactly how big, and what shape will it be, is another. What will the resolution of said screen be?
What if the manufacturer is having problems with that screen?
What about the chips involved? We see that one of the chips in the Nano has an Apple logo, that means that Apple messed with it in some way. Are they having problems with some other chip?
If it will use a touch screen, are they having problems with that aspect?
Are they working on Bluetooth or WiFi and having problems with that as well?
How about battery life?
There could be software problems as well. We all know how that can go over schedule.
How about licensing issues? We don't know what Apple wants to do with this thing.
What if it, and the iTv are tied up together, and both are ready, but the licensing isn't coming together. MS hasn't finished their licensing deals either, and they've announced the product.
If Apple can't get some licensing it wants, some features of the products might have to be eliminated.
A lot of problems can be the cause. I don't see any reason why Apple would want to delay this if it is ready. It would be losing a lot of sales over the next few months. The time to release this product is now, or at most in another month or so. If they wait until Macworld, they lose both the sales of the season, and the buzz.
My main point is that Apple has done a stellar release of new Macs, iPods, and iTunes Store content in 2006. Alongside a full transition to Intel.
They better pace themselves, by letting Sep 16 2006 through to Jan 01 2007 sit as it is (changes mostly more movies to iTunes Store). Let people settle into the post back-to-school, Christmas season. Remember there is also a lot of demand to fill w.r.t. MacBooks and MacPro. And definitely new iPod nanos + iPod shuffle are teh sex for holiday gifts. Mac minis and iMacs holding the consumer line strongly.
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
well, I see some sense in that, though I think that we will see Merom in the laptop line before the year is out.
It could be that we haven't seen it yet because of the shortage of those chips. The laptops are the hottest selling lines. Apple may have felt that they could wait, and instead, use their alloctation for the iMac line, which isn't selling as well (at least, that's the word we get).
As far as other products go, this might be it. Though I would still like to see a new video iPod.
By the way, the other day I had asked if Apple was producing the new games for the iPods, and hoped that Apple would open the API's to developers. Apparently they have. The games are being developed by third parties. This gives me hope.
...as more studios come on board, then BAM! widescreen 640x360 5" diagonal 16:9 "true" iPod Video. Macworld SF 2007.
A 16:9 aspect, 5" diagonal screen would require increasing the present iPod's height 3/8" or so and its width around 1/4" (allowing for a slim bezel). But the present form factor could accommodate a 4" + diagonal 16:9 if it had virtual, touch-screen controls.
What's the sense of the people here: would you rather have 4.x", 16:9 screen in the present form factor (read potential compatibility with docks, speaker boxes, etc., or a larger screen and larger device? (Either way, new docks would also be sold to allow charging while viewing in the horizontal mode).
Play with the math. I'd be interested in seeing the forum's preference. Does anyone know how to set up one of those sites that can take and tally viewer votes? Or maybe that's already been done.
Oh, by the way, if my quick math's correct the Nano could accommodate a 2.8" diagonal 16:9 aspect screen in its present form factor; with a slightly smaller screen there'd even be room for a control wheel the size of the one on the new shuffle.
1. Apple does not usually play games with releases, pricing based on what others are doing. 90% of the time they are on their own schedule, 10% of that "intelligence gathering" is then factored into iSteve's vision.
Agreed.
But when you're a multi-billion dollar business confronting competition from MS, "pursuing clever strategy" is appropriate when "playing games" is not. I just wonder whether a partial release of apple's fall iPod plans might have been a ploy to gather a little more intelligence on MS' plans.
...Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
I'd like to see them but a search at the link you listed (for "Gartenberg") revealed only a 9/14 post on MS office and a 9/13 one on the Blu-Ray HDDV battle. And both were available only for purchase. Can you summarize what he said, or is there another route to summaries of that information?
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
Your posts are among the most thought-provoking and informed on the forum. Thanks. I'd like to see your take on this thought:
In part, apple's greatness is measured with the introduction of groundbreaking new products. In recent years, i'd say the landmark products have been the iMac and the iPod. The changes to both those products, i think everyone would agree, have been great but incremental or evolutionary.
So what are the new products? I think that's what everyone waits for each Expo, and each Special Event: for steve & co to give us something new, not just nanos with a different composition case and color, not just longer battery life, etc--as i say, those are great improvements, but not really new tools or toys, just improvements to tools or toys apple had already given us.
I'd grant iTV status as a new tool or toy. So well done, apple. I'm looking forward to using it. I think it'll become a part of my daily life, like the iPod family.
But what else might we expect or hope for from apple?
What NEW products would you like to see? For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated.
well, I see some sense in that, though I think that we will see Merom in the laptop line before the year is out.
Yes, this looks very possible to streamline Merom into MacBookPro at Photokina Sep 25th. Aperture update and MacBookPro updates (20-inch MacBookPro????) but looking like 70% chance IMHO along with new Aperture a Merom-updated MacBookPro. MacBooks can sit pretty going into Christmas season, they're selling those by the bucketloads and a Merom update to them at this stage would so not make sense.
Your posts are among the most thought-provoking and informed on the forum. Thanks.
Cool. That's when I'm not stuffing around being silly and stuff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtdunham
I'd like to see your take on this thought:
In part, apple's greatness is measured with the introduction of groundbreaking new products. In recent years, i'd say the landmark products have been the iMac and the iPod. The changes to both those products, i think everyone would agree, have been great but incremental or evolutionary.
So what are the new products? I think that's what everyone waits for each Expo, and each Special Event: for steve & co to give us something new, not just nanos with a different composition case and color, not just longer battery life, etc--as i say, those are great improvements, but not really new tools or toys, just improvements to tools or toys apple had already given us.
I'd grant iTV status as a new tool or toy. So well done, apple. I'm looking forward to using it. I think it'll become a part of my daily life, like the iPod family.
But what else might we expect or hope for from apple?
What NEW products would you like to see? For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated.
sunilraman, what's your take? and others here?
Yes. We've seen a progressive evolution from say the original iMac pre-2000 through to the Intel transition completed just recently. The thing is that our expectations have been jumbled around a bit, from the dissapointment of the PowerPC Ghz debacle through to the surprise of the iTunes Store.
It's hard to see things as "groundbreaking" piece-by-piece IMO because Apple has in and of itself, at this stage, 2006-2010, a groundbreaking vision.
This is mostly I feel because of the iPod: dominant marketshare and momentum has put Apple in a great position to execute on a more ambitious than imagined groundbreaking vision. The Intel transition would NOT be possible if iPods weren't the big thing. Look at it this way - you have one product line that generates a lot of revenue (admittedly lower % if you look at profit compared to profits from Mac sales), is a foothold both to the consumer electronics sphere and the personal computing sphere (iMac, switchers, etc.).
It's a matter of confidence, and this confidence is growing. Maybe in the past, Apple had to pull out some stellar stuff every now and then to keep themselves on the map and to command mindshare, almost guerilla-style (think about ThinkDifferent).
What we are looking at the next five years is a transition to a more sustainable model of executing gradually on THE groundbreaking vision. If you look at Steve's announcements, he may seem a little jaded, but it's more of pacing himself, to carry him through to 2010 while grooming a successor over the next 5-10 years. His tone has also changed, he speaks of "we think that's really great..." and "isn't that nice, we worked quite hard to get that just right..." --- the RDF is definitely still there but rather than a quick ecstatic hit of Kool Aid that fades once you walk outside Moscone Convention Center, the RDF is now a warm glow in your heart, like a nicotine patch... 8)
Notice also at WWDC August 2006 Steve handed-off some parts of the keynote to some of his minions. He's only in the past done this rarely, usually only Phil Schiller, or Phil when Steve had cancer, or a major partner eg. Sony dude (that got sacked a few months later) and Disney dude and Intel dude. One of the guys at WWDC August 2006, sorry to say, I think it was Bertrand, certainly did not look "TV-friendly" by any stretch of the imagination. Overall, my question here is whether Steve Jobs is moving to a more sustainable business model by releasing slowly his iron fist on Apple - for the good of iSteve and the good of Apple. I think he is...
That said, a regular company on a roll just needs to keep churning out the stuff along their momentum and along their vision which seems to be doing well - say ATI and nVidia with producing better, cooler, faster, sexier GPUs.
Apple though, along the lines of executing on their longer-term strategy, will still have to have a "wow" factor at every announcement. Some people will get jaded after a while. But there is still a lot of innovation, and there still will be, it is "in Apple's DNA" as Steve? himself? said. Suffice to say that it's target audience will be suitably "wowed" as it goes along.
"For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated"
I cannot agree more. iPhone, "true" iPod video, Mac mini-DVR, iTV, Apple-like Treo with OSX Lite, are all possibilities at Macworld SF 2007. There's certainly a lot of surprise in the air that's hard to nail down. The start of January 2007 will be an intoxicating rumourfest.
The thing to keep in mind that each "hit" of announcements won't be as "slam-bam" to an elite audience, it will be a wider, deeper, inhalation. (yes a lot of drug references in my post but nonetheless... ) We'll look back at 2007, and we WILL say, very likely, holy crap, they topped 2006...!
Inevitably though some of us (Placebo and Onlooker I'm looking at you) will also say, at the end of 2007, f*k Apple, where's my nVidia 8800GTX!!!111one!!!?!!! It should be stock in the Mac mini by now...!!!?!!1!one!!!
Watch the WWDC August 2006 keynote. When he comes on stage I thought I was having some major video decoding issues or something. It was actually quite distracting watching him talk because he does have some facial deformity of some sort, which is apparent when he talks. That and the accent (The only English is The Queen's English !!!! muah haahah ha).
While Bert above probably spends more on a suit than you on your car, he has an extreme case of facial non-symmetry. Each of us has it to some degree, the left side of your face is actually different in some way to your right side. Take a picture of your face, and in Photoshop take one half, and mirror it. Take the other half, and mirror it. Look at the two faces, and it could be quite different.
Comments
As for a second Showtime with a big screen iPod, I'd love for it to be planned, but why not announce now?! The resolution on the iTunesStore is there, the content is there, the screen tech and battery tech must be there - the only thing I can think of is that:
1. There is no planned videopod
2. The interface is so advanced that it can't be built yet.
I sure hope it is number 2, but I'm not confident in that yet.
The pricing may have caught MS by surprise, thus the lack of hard info for this "announcement" v. 2.0.
As for a second Showtime with a big screen iPod, I'd love for it to be planned, but why not announce now?! The resolution on the iTunesStore is there, the content is there, the screen tech and battery tech must be there - the only thing I can think of is that:
1. There is no planned videopod
2. The interface is so advanced that it can't be built yet.
I sure hope it is number 2, but I'm not confident in that yet.
I'm pretty much with you on this. Apple could be waiting for prices on the screen to come down. For all we know they are going to use an OLED, but it hasn't gone into production yet.
There could be a myriad of reasons.
i'm hoping apple had two iPod announcements--the set they made sept 12, and another announcement or set of announcements re: a wide-screen iPod.
Rather than playing all their cards at once, they revealed a few.
this bluff prompted MS to reveal more about its Zune.
that allows apple to play its full hand and not be trumped by a later announcement. after all, we're all techies, and MS-or not, a bigger screen would be appealing to everyone who uses an iPod to view photos and vids, and the wireless feature will be fun to some.
this would put the strategic advantage back to apple. i hope that's the case. I can't see any reason the existing iPod couldn't harbor a larger screen oriented the other way instead. That change alone, it seems to me, would sustain iPod as the premiere device of its kind. it can be done. why not do it?
Hi, interesting points. The Sep 12 announcement was to consolidate it's lineup for the christmas buying season. iMacs are solidified, with Mac minis ready to rock dualcore at a good price. The iPod line was getting very stale, running about 9 months without an update and sales declined slightly in the past two quarters, IIRC. MacBooks, flying off the shelf. MacBook and MacBookPro just Yonahs will be fine going into the next three months. Merom iMac is sweet. MacPro - ready to kick some serious ass in Apple software suites, while waiting for the native Adobe/Macromedia software sometime March 2007-June 2007.
With the current Mac lineup, iPod lineup, dropped prices on cinema displays, and newly-injected energy into iTunes7 (hope they fix bugs in the next few months)!! things are looking great for the Oct-Dec 2006 quarter.
Now, this leaves Jan Macworld 2007 where there needs to be some interesting new stuff to keep sales going and kick off the start of 2007 on a good note. Updates here will be, iTV officially announced and shipping in Feb, updated MacBook to Merom, updated MacBookPro to Merom, some interesting other updates to the portables.
Then, here be the great opportunity for iPhone and also widescreen touch-based iPod Video (the "true" iPod video).
And, one more thing.
Setting such a stellar note in 2006, we *will* see some seriously interesting stuff come out of Cupertino in 2007 - albeit not at the breakneck pace of 2006, remember, I predict it will be a gradual, "sustaining" type of product release and consolidation through 2007, along with refinement and continual addition of content to iTunes Store. Mid-2007 iTunes7 can go 7.5 which will be based on a lot of feedback coming out of the "ReleaseCandidate2" style iTunes7.0.x.x
1. Is it because Amazon opened its store?
No, Apple announced Showtime before Amazon opened its store. So we believe Amazon opened because it knew Apple was opening its movie store (based on the invite picture). But if Apple had not announced Showtime, possibly Amazon would've waited some more.
2. So did Apple announce Showtime because it thought Amazon was ready? Did Apple have bad intelligence about what features and restrictions Amazon would have?
When CinemaNow and MovieLink introduced its stores, Apple did nothing. And I highly doubt Apple would not have known the studio restrictions placed on Amazon as they are probably the same restrictions the studios have been asking of Apple. So no.
3. Is it because Zune was coming? Did Apple try to focus everyone on movies so as to blunt the Zune message of sharing?
Maybe. And the iTV was to freeze the market?
4. Is it because Apple is trying to mislead MS into thinking that this is it for the iPod line for the Xmas season? Then MS intros the Zune at either the $299 or $399 price point (I've seen rumors that cover both), or now at the $249 price point to match the 30GB iPod. Upon which, Apple unleashes the widescreen iPod on Oct 23 (5th anniversary) at the currently empty price points of $299 and $399. Coupled with the fact that Apple has spent 11 months on the iPod to make a few power mgmt chip changes does lead to the conclusion that its focus has been elsewhere, namely, the widescreen iPod. But if it wasn't ready, Apple didn't have to say peep about the movie store. So the announcement of the movie store was to make it seem like there would be no more announcements on the iPod front. Possibly.
5. Is it because Apple could no longer wait to intro the iPod nano since the SanDisk Sansa 8GB was soon to ship? So it had to intro the nano. But it didn't have to intro the movie store or even the iPod update. Last year, it didn't do the iPod 5G until Oct. 11.
I really don't know. What do all of you think?
I really don't know. What do all of you think?
1. Apple does not usually play games with releases, pricing based on what others are doing. 90% of the time they are on their own schedule, 10% of that "intelligence gathering" is then factored into iSteve's vision.
2. Apple *cannot* introduce any other products for the Christmas season.
(A) This is it, people that buy in now will feel sorely cheated if newer products pop up just a month or two after they got their new stuff.
(B) Apple needs like I said above, backup and enough pipeline held back for Jan-March 2007. Particularly MacWorld January 2007.
3. Apple has spelt its vision clearly. Once more movies are available, along with the increasing release of TV shows, music videos, music, etc, but particularly *movies*, then the "true" widescreen video iPod will be really nice for the Jan-March 2007 quarter. Also iPhone then would be cool.
4. Apple needs to pace itself and not play guess-what guess-who guess-howmuch with other competitors. It has set its own pace clearly with the Mac lineup, and with the dominating iPod lineup. If Apple get's caught in races, eg. the catastrophic GHZ race, it risks getting caught with its pants down with regard to products that are not ready, or released to early, or ill-timed with seasonal buying patterns.
2. Apple *cannot* introduce any other products for the Christmas season.
(A) This is it, people that buy in now will feel sorely cheated if newer products pop up just a month or two after they got their new stuff.
(B) Apple needs like I said above, backup and enough pipeline held back for Jan-March 2007. Particularly MacWorld January 2007.
But last year they introed the nano in Sept, then followed with the iPod 5G in Oct. Some people felt cheated but there wasn't much of an outcry. So they've convinced you that there is nothing more coming before Xmas. But Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
If you haven't noticed, Apple has moved the iPod to a consumer schedule. Major refreshes in the fall for Xmas, minor intros in the spring (1GB nano this past year). The back-to-school Mac fills in nicely for the Jul-Sep quarter. The iTV, Leopard, and new Macs (matching new Intel chips) will bolster the Jan 2007 quarter.
3. Apple has spelt its vision clearly. Once more movies are available, along with the increasing release of TV shows, music videos, music, etc, but particularly *movies*, then the "true" widescreen video iPod will be really nice for the Jan-March 2007 quarter. Also iPhone then would be cool.
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
640x480 looks great on my iBook G4 14" 933mhz - I just downloaded and watched ABC's Lost Preview thingy.
Also, movie studios will not allow anything less than 640x480 (what IS the real resolution?) if it is 16:9 then it's only 640x360 effective pixels.
Apple wants to start building momentum with movies now, and as more studios come on board, then BAM! widescreen 640x360 5" diagonal 16:9 "true" iPod Video. Macworld SF 2007.
But last year they introed the nano in Sept, then followed with the iPod 5G in Oct. Some people felt cheated but there wasn't much of an outcry. So they've convinced you that there is nothing more coming before Xmas. But Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
In that case that was separate iPod updates. Sep 12 was clearly a across-the-line iPod refresh, very very unlikely anything else before Macworld SF 2007.
If you haven't noticed, Apple has moved the iPod to a consumer schedule. Major refreshes in the fall for Xmas, minor intros in the spring (1GB nano this past year). The back-to-school Mac fills in nicely for the Jul-Sep quarter. The iTV, Leopard, and new Macs (matching new Intel chips) will bolster the Jan 2007 quarter.
Most certainly re: iPod schedule. This has cost them a bit in terms of slower iPod sales this year in the two calendar quarters before July-Sep 2006 or something like that. The iPod line was getting very stale. But Apple tweaking iPod to consumer schedule, yes. Agree with you in above paragraph except you are talking about MacBook for back-to-school Jul-Sep 2006. Also, new iMacs with new Intel chips (Merom) is for Oct-Dec quarter with follow through to Jan-Mar 2007 quarter. iTV, Leopard, "true" video iPod, maybe iPhone, certainly some new Macs(?) to carry through Jan 2007 an onwards....................
They better pace themselves, by letting Sep 16 2006 through to Jan 01 2007 sit as it is (changes mostly more movies to iTunes Store). Let people settle into the post back-to-school, Christmas season. Remember there is also a lot of demand to fill w.r.t. MacBooks and MacPro. And definitely new iPod nanos + iPod shuffle are teh sex for holiday gifts. Mac minis and iMacs holding the consumer line strongly.
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
But you haven't answered my basic question: why intro the movie store with 640x480 resolution, without anything really cool to play it on? No iPod (not for 640x480) and no iTV. Why not just wait to intro the movie store when eithre the iPod or iTV is ready?
It seems to me as though it isn't ready. I keep saying this, but no one is listening.
Apple may not have been able to wait any longer with the movie store.
If we are to believe that there are several new technologies involved, then there could easily be cost overruns, parts delays, design difficulties. We've been reading for several months that that is what is happening.
It's like the military, or the space program, except on a much smaller scale.
One question is what type of screen will it use? Exactly how big, and what shape will it be, is another. What will the resolution of said screen be?
What if the manufacturer is having problems with that screen?
What about the chips involved? We see that one of the chips in the Nano has an Apple logo, that means that Apple messed with it in some way. Are they having problems with some other chip?
If it will use a touch screen, are they having problems with that aspect?
Are they working on Bluetooth or WiFi and having problems with that as well?
How about battery life?
There could be software problems as well. We all know how that can go over schedule.
How about licensing issues? We don't know what Apple wants to do with this thing.
What if it, and the iTv are tied up together, and both are ready, but the licensing isn't coming together. MS hasn't finished their licensing deals either, and they've announced the product.
If Apple can't get some licensing it wants, some features of the products might have to be eliminated.
A lot of problems can be the cause. I don't see any reason why Apple would want to delay this if it is ready. It would be losing a lot of sales over the next few months. The time to release this product is now, or at most in another month or so. If they wait until Macworld, they lose both the sales of the season, and the buzz.
My main point is that Apple has done a stellar release of new Macs, iPods, and iTunes Store content in 2006. Alongside a full transition to Intel.
They better pace themselves, by letting Sep 16 2006 through to Jan 01 2007 sit as it is (changes mostly more movies to iTunes Store). Let people settle into the post back-to-school, Christmas season. Remember there is also a lot of demand to fill w.r.t. MacBooks and MacPro. And definitely new iPod nanos + iPod shuffle are teh sex for holiday gifts. Mac minis and iMacs holding the consumer line strongly.
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
well, I see some sense in that, though I think that we will see Merom in the laptop line before the year is out.
It could be that we haven't seen it yet because of the shortage of those chips. The laptops are the hottest selling lines. Apple may have felt that they could wait, and instead, use their alloctation for the iMac line, which isn't selling as well (at least, that's the word we get).
As far as other products go, this might be it. Though I would still like to see a new video iPod.
By the way, the other day I had asked if Apple was producing the new games for the iPods, and hoped that Apple would open the API's to developers. Apparently they have. The games are being developed by third parties. This gives me hope.
...as more studios come on board, then BAM! widescreen 640x360 5" diagonal 16:9 "true" iPod Video. Macworld SF 2007.
A 16:9 aspect, 5" diagonal screen would require increasing the present iPod's height 3/8" or so and its width around 1/4" (allowing for a slim bezel). But the present form factor could accommodate a 4" + diagonal 16:9 if it had virtual, touch-screen controls.
What's the sense of the people here: would you rather have 4.x", 16:9 screen in the present form factor (read potential compatibility with docks, speaker boxes, etc., or a larger screen and larger device? (Either way, new docks would also be sold to allow charging while viewing in the horizontal mode).
Play with the math. I'd be interested in seeing the forum's preference. Does anyone know how to set up one of those sites that can take and tally viewer votes? Or maybe that's already been done.
Oh, by the way, if my quick math's correct the Nano could accommodate a 2.8" diagonal 16:9 aspect screen in its present form factor; with a slightly smaller screen there'd even be room for a control wheel the size of the one on the new shuffle.
1. Apple does not usually play games with releases, pricing based on what others are doing. 90% of the time they are on their own schedule, 10% of that "intelligence gathering" is then factored into iSteve's vision.
Agreed.
But when you're a multi-billion dollar business confronting competition from MS, "pursuing clever strategy" is appropriate when "playing games" is not. I just wonder whether a partial release of apple's fall iPod plans might have been a ploy to gather a little more intelligence on MS' plans.
...Michael Gartenberg of www.JupiterResearch.com seems certain there's a couple more things coming. See his blog posts for 9/14 and 9/13.
I'd like to see them but a search at the link you listed (for "Gartenberg") revealed only a 9/14 post on MS office and a 9/13 one on the Blu-Ray HDDV battle. And both were available only for purchase. Can you summarize what he said, or is there another route to summaries of that information?
Let Apple work on Leopard, iTunes 7.x, and a raft of goodies for MacWorld SF 2007. Apple has a lot, I mean, really, a lot to live up to at MacWorld SF 2007, and to set the pace thru 2007. The *current* strong overall Apple offering means that we're gonna see big things in 2007. Some nice, juicy stuff. Sure, some people will be dissapointed, but through 2007 starting from MacWorld SF January, it is going to be juicy. Apple just needs to pace itself...
Your posts are among the most thought-provoking and informed on the forum. Thanks. I'd like to see your take on this thought:
In part, apple's greatness is measured with the introduction of groundbreaking new products. In recent years, i'd say the landmark products have been the iMac and the iPod. The changes to both those products, i think everyone would agree, have been great but incremental or evolutionary.
So what are the new products? I think that's what everyone waits for each Expo, and each Special Event: for steve & co to give us something new, not just nanos with a different composition case and color, not just longer battery life, etc--as i say, those are great improvements, but not really new tools or toys, just improvements to tools or toys apple had already given us.
I'd grant iTV status as a new tool or toy. So well done, apple. I'm looking forward to using it. I think it'll become a part of my daily life, like the iPod family.
But what else might we expect or hope for from apple?
What NEW products would you like to see? For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated.
sunilraman, what's your take? and others here?
well, I see some sense in that, though I think that we will see Merom in the laptop line before the year is out.
Yes, this looks very possible to streamline Merom into MacBookPro at Photokina Sep 25th. Aperture update and MacBookPro updates (20-inch MacBookPro????) but looking like 70% chance IMHO along with new Aperture a Merom-updated MacBookPro. MacBooks can sit pretty going into Christmas season, they're selling those by the bucketloads and a Merom update to them at this stage would so not make sense.
http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/09...kina/index.php
Invite image: Apple will be speaking to the press at announcement event at Photokina Sep 25th:
Your posts are among the most thought-provoking and informed on the forum. Thanks.
Cool. That's when I'm not stuffing around being silly and stuff.
I'd like to see your take on this thought:
In part, apple's greatness is measured with the introduction of groundbreaking new products. In recent years, i'd say the landmark products have been the iMac and the iPod. The changes to both those products, i think everyone would agree, have been great but incremental or evolutionary.
So what are the new products? I think that's what everyone waits for each Expo, and each Special Event: for steve & co to give us something new, not just nanos with a different composition case and color, not just longer battery life, etc--as i say, those are great improvements, but not really new tools or toys, just improvements to tools or toys apple had already given us.
I'd grant iTV status as a new tool or toy. So well done, apple. I'm looking forward to using it. I think it'll become a part of my daily life, like the iPod family.
But what else might we expect or hope for from apple?
What NEW products would you like to see? For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated.
sunilraman, what's your take? and others here?
Yes. We've seen a progressive evolution from say the original iMac pre-2000 through to the Intel transition completed just recently. The thing is that our expectations have been jumbled around a bit, from the dissapointment of the PowerPC Ghz debacle through to the surprise of the iTunes Store.
It's hard to see things as "groundbreaking" piece-by-piece IMO because Apple has in and of itself, at this stage, 2006-2010, a groundbreaking vision.
This is mostly I feel because of the iPod: dominant marketshare and momentum has put Apple in a great position to execute on a more ambitious than imagined groundbreaking vision. The Intel transition would NOT be possible if iPods weren't the big thing. Look at it this way - you have one product line that generates a lot of revenue (admittedly lower % if you look at profit compared to profits from Mac sales), is a foothold both to the consumer electronics sphere and the personal computing sphere (iMac, switchers, etc.).
It's a matter of confidence, and this confidence is growing. Maybe in the past, Apple had to pull out some stellar stuff every now and then to keep themselves on the map and to command mindshare, almost guerilla-style (think about ThinkDifferent).
What we are looking at the next five years is a transition to a more sustainable model of executing gradually on THE groundbreaking vision. If you look at Steve's announcements, he may seem a little jaded, but it's more of pacing himself, to carry him through to 2010 while grooming a successor over the next 5-10 years. His tone has also changed, he speaks of "we think that's really great..." and "isn't that nice, we worked quite hard to get that just right..." --- the RDF is definitely still there but rather than a quick ecstatic hit of Kool Aid that fades once you walk outside Moscone Convention Center, the RDF is now a warm glow in your heart, like a nicotine patch... 8)
Notice also at WWDC August 2006 Steve handed-off some parts of the keynote to some of his minions. He's only in the past done this rarely, usually only Phil Schiller, or Phil when Steve had cancer, or a major partner eg. Sony dude (that got sacked a few months later) and Disney dude and Intel dude. One of the guys at WWDC August 2006, sorry to say, I think it was Bertrand, certainly did not look "TV-friendly" by any stretch of the imagination. Overall, my question here is whether Steve Jobs is moving to a more sustainable business model by releasing slowly his iron fist on Apple - for the good of iSteve and the good of Apple. I think he is...
That said, a regular company on a roll just needs to keep churning out the stuff along their momentum and along their vision which seems to be doing well - say ATI and nVidia with producing better, cooler, faster, sexier GPUs.
Apple though, along the lines of executing on their longer-term strategy, will still have to have a "wow" factor at every announcement. Some people will get jaded after a while. But there is still a lot of innovation, and there still will be, it is "in Apple's DNA" as Steve? himself? said. Suffice to say that it's target audience will be suitably "wowed" as it goes along.
"For me, it's an apple phone OR a well-crafted (read "apple-like) phone from someone else with easy integration with iCal and Address Book. Give me an apple-like Treo in a small Pod-form. Others might think a big-screen video iPod would constitute a new product. Some have sought a DVR device. Or maybe apple will surprise us with something none of us anticipated"
I cannot agree more. iPhone, "true" iPod video, Mac mini-DVR, iTV, Apple-like Treo with OSX Lite, are all possibilities at Macworld SF 2007. There's certainly a lot of surprise in the air that's hard to nail down. The start of January 2007 will be an intoxicating rumourfest.
The thing to keep in mind that each "hit" of announcements won't be as "slam-bam" to an elite audience, it will be a wider, deeper, inhalation. (yes a lot of drug references in my post but nonetheless...
Inevitably though some of us (Placebo and Onlooker I'm looking at you) will also say, at the end of 2007, f*k Apple, where's my nVidia 8800GTX!!!111one!!!?!!! It should be stock in the Mac mini by now...!!!?!!1!one!!!
^ dude what happened to his eye?
Watch the WWDC August 2006 keynote. When he comes on stage I thought I was having some major video decoding issues or something. It was actually quite distracting watching him talk because he does have some facial deformity of some sort, which is apparent when he talks. That and the accent (The only English is The Queen's English !!!! muah haahah ha).
While Bert above probably spends more on a suit than you on your car, he has an extreme case of facial non-symmetry. Each of us has it to some degree, the left side of your face is actually different in some way to your right side. Take a picture of your face, and in Photoshop take one half, and mirror it. Take the other half, and mirror it. Look at the two faces, and it could be quite different.
There's actually a website to try this: http://www.symface.com/
But really, WTF is the deal with his eye??