Adobe's CS3 seen driving new Mac sales in 2007

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
The release of Adobe's Creative Suite 3.0 professional software package next year will be a catalyst for new sales of Apple Computer's Intel-based Macintosh computers, according to one Wall Street analyst.



PiperJaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster recently spoke with 50 Adobe customers and found that 24 percent expect to buy a new Mac within two quarters of the release of Adobe's CS3. Due by April of 2007, CS3 will represent the first version of the creative software bundle that is fully optimized for Apple's Intel-based Macs.



"The bottom line is that there is significant pent-up demand for Intel-based Macs among the Adobe creative pro community," Munster wrote in a research note. "Adobe creative pro customers cannot run their Adobe apps at full effiency on an Intel-based Mac until CS3 is released, so many are waiting until that time to upgrade their machines."



Of the 50 Adobe users the analyst spoke with, 10 percent said they have already upgraded to an Intel Mac and another 24 percent indicated that they expect to upgrade within 2 quarters following the release of CS3.



According to Munster, Adobe maintains a creative pro customer base of approximately 3 million users. With 10 percent having upgraded to a new Mac within the last 2 quarters, he assumes for analytical purposes that approximately 300,000 (150,000/quarter) Adobe creative pros already own Intel-based Macs.



"If we assume that our forward estimates are also based on 150,000/quarter Macs that are sold to Adobe's creative pro customer base, we would come to a figure of 600k Macs sold to Adobe creative pros by the time CS3 ships in April of 2007," he wrote.



"This leaves us with 2.4 million Adobe creative pro customers that are yet to move to a new Mac. If 24 percent of these customers upgrades to a new Mac within the first 2 quarters following CS3 release (Jun-07 & Sep-07 quarters), we can expect 288,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros in each of those 2 quarters."



Munster noted that the aforementioned model would yield about 138,000 more Mac sales per quarter than he had been anticipating based on estimates of 150,000 Macs per quarter. Those additional unites would add 7 percent or 4 cents to his earnings-per-share estimate for both the June 2007 and September 2007 quarters, he said.



The analyst maintained his "outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 66
    In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.



    Though in all seriousness, I have to call silly buggers on their numbers; I would guess that only a percentage of the "creative pros" only own one computer, and likely many have purchased a laptop in that ten percent further planning a desktop when CS3 hits the market; if not more than one.
  • Reply 2 of 66
    I am one of those who is waiting for CS3.

    I am also hoping that a less expensive version of a "tower", "headless Mac" becomes available.

    I don't need the power of a Mac Pro, but I do want to separate my system unit from my display.

    While the 24-inch iMac is great (I own one), I want a machine with more expansion/upgrade possibilities than the iMac.



    ,dave
  • Reply 3 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ChevalierMalFet


    In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.



    I couldn't have said it better myself. These "PiparJaffrey" people get paid to state the obvious. Why would anyone by an Intel Mac if they have to run Rosetta just to get their apps to work. DUH!



    In other news, I do hear the CS3 will kick serious butt! It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?
  • Reply 4 of 66
    dr_lhadr_lha Posts: 236member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by davebarnes


    I am one of those who is waiting for CS3.

    I am also hoping that a less expensive version of a "tower", "headless Mac" becomes available.

    I don't need the power of a Mac Pro, but I do want to separate my system unit from my display.

    While the 24-inch iMac is great (I own one), I want a machine with more expansion/upgrade possibilities than the iMac.



    ,dave



    Yawn. Get over it dude, its not going to happen.
  • Reply 5 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ChevalierMalFet


    In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.



    Though in all seriousness, I have to call silly buggers on their numbers; I would guess that only a percentage of the "creative pros" only own one computer, and likely many have purchased a laptop in that ten percent further planning a desktop when CS3 hits the market; if not more than one.



    this one made me laugh out loud (at work). When I first heard about the new Intel in a Mac, I was stoked. Then, I heard about the delay of Adobe CS bundle for Intel Macs... I figured "oh, they'll just delay the mac pro a little longer".. nope, I guess there's a huge nitch of other creative pro's like Final Cut Pro / 3d rendering.



    What's funny is, I wasn't expecting a positive approach article like this. I was expecting something more obvious like "Mac Pro lowest selling Apple merchandise...Analysts say that Apple has dropped the ball".



    Honestly, by the time Adobe CS3 is launched, aren't we suppose to see Dual-Quadcore (Octo) machines?
  • Reply 6 of 66
    I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.
  • Reply 7 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man


    I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.



    I'm going off a bit on the rabbit trail with this but... I think this will blow bootcamp out of the water if it keeps up the progress



    CrossOver Mac

    http://www.codeweavers.com/products/cxmac/
  • Reply 8 of 66
    i feel like the folks at Piper Jaffrey are just Apple fanboys.
  • Reply 9 of 66
    asciiascii Posts: 5,941member
    I can't believe it's taken Adobe so long to change processors. They must have unneccesarily decided to change IDE at the same time.
  • Reply 10 of 66
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ascii


    I can't believe it's taken Adobe so long to change processors. They must have unneccesarily decided to change IDE at the same time.



    Well, CodeWarrior doesn't let you create x86 Mach-O binaries.
  • Reply 11 of 66
    I'm a pro user I guess.

    I upgraded and am content with the performance of all the adobe CS2 apps with a huge exception, Illustrator. It crashes so frequently that I'm keeping my old G5 around just to use illustrator on. I can't wait to get my hands on CS3.



    flick.
  • Reply 12 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,960member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JustBrady


    I couldn't have said it better myself. These "PiparJaffrey" people get paid to state the obvious. Why would anyone by an Intel Mac if they have to run Rosetta just to get their apps to work. DUH!



    In other news, I do hear the CS3 will kick serious butt! It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?



    The other programs in the suite work well enough under Rosetta, and there are other apps that Creative using pro's use.



    Performance under Rosetta has been getting better as well, as you would know if you bothered to check.



    Most images are still under 30 MB. With smaller images like that, and 2GB RAM, or more, Rosetta is just fine.
  • Reply 13 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,960member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JustBrady


    It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?



    Yes, it will.
  • Reply 14 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,960member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man


    I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.



    Can you show that?
  • Reply 15 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 32,960member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flick Justice


    I'm a pro user I guess.

    I upgraded and am content with the performance of all the adobe CS2 apps with a huge exception, Illustrator. It crashes so frequently that I'm keeping my old G5 around just to use illustrator on. I can't wait to get my hands on CS3.



    flick.



    You should check that out. Illustrator is running fine for many people.
  • Reply 16 of 66
    This story (whatever it's level of truthiness) illustrates the over-reliance of Apple on Adobe. They need to work on a trial separation and Apple needs to get rid of the perception they are wholly at the mercy of Adobe's progress. Apple continues to be in a very weak power position.
  • Reply 17 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross


    You should check that out. Illustrator is running fine for many people.



    Really? odd.. I guess I reinstall...



    I have read other people haveing the same issue so I just assumed it was the Intel.. I'm sorry computer.

    flick.
  • Reply 18 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man


    I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.



    Using rules of statistics, I can tell you that with 50 people that he's correct to within 5.5% with 95% confidence. That means 19 out of 20 times, 4.5% - 15.5% is almost certain. yeah, it's a pretty wide range, but not the worst I've seen.



    -Clive
  • Reply 19 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich


    This story (whatever it's level of truthiness) illustrates the over-reliance of Apple on Adobe. They need to work on a trial separation and Apple needs to get rid of the perception they are wholly at the mercy of Adobe's progress. Apple continues to be in a very weak power position.



    I think that's what they're trying to do with Final Cut, Apeture, etc.



    -Clive
  • Reply 20 of 66
    Adobe waiting this long is just a cynical ploy to get everyone on intel macs to have to pay full pop for CS3 instead of just downloading an update, which is what they should have done.



    People can call it good business, or whatever you want, I think it's a bastard of a move. When companies charge hundreds of dollars for their software, then fail to provide support for their product for this long, they're real pricks . No wonder so many people with photoshop didn't pay for it...



    At what point in the past 50 years did consumers give up all of their power to companies? In the 50's, we expected products to work, and we expected excellent service on them. Now we pay a ton of money for a DVD that costs next to nothing to produce (OK, they have development costs, but still...), and we just accept it when the company provides us with an inferior product/service.



    This surely signals the coming apocalypse... IT'S IN REVELATIONS PEOPLE!!1
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