Apple seen selling as many as 9 million Macs in 2007
Apple Computer could sell more than 9 million computers next year if its Mac market share continues to grow at the same rate seen during the 2006 calendar year, one Wall Street analyst says.
In one of several research reports from PiperJaffray this week, analyst Gene Munster said he expects the company's share of the PC market will continue to grow in 2007 due to improved availability of Macs, an expanding footprint of customers, and the ability to run Windows on a Mac.
Apple's Mac market share in the third quarter of 2006 was 2.8 percent and will likely be around 3.0 percent for the fourth quarter, the analyst said, up from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
"Based on several catalysts, we believe Mac market share can grow by 1 percent again in 2007, ending the year at around 4 percent, with an average for the year of 3.5 percent.," Munster wrote in a note to clients.
With an average market share of 3.5 percent for the year, Apple would sell 9.01 million Macs during the course of the year, according to the analyst's estimates. That's significantly more than Street consensus estimates of 6.95 million Macs based on an average market share of 2.7 percent.
The additional 2.06 million Macs would add more than $2.8 billion to Apple's bottom line, Munster said, making the Street's current earnings-per-share estimates for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company some $0.35, or 11.6 percent, too low.
According to IDC, Apple's current worldwide Mac market share stands at 2.8 percent.
In one of several research reports from PiperJaffray this week, analyst Gene Munster said he expects the company's share of the PC market will continue to grow in 2007 due to improved availability of Macs, an expanding footprint of customers, and the ability to run Windows on a Mac.
Apple's Mac market share in the third quarter of 2006 was 2.8 percent and will likely be around 3.0 percent for the fourth quarter, the analyst said, up from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
"Based on several catalysts, we believe Mac market share can grow by 1 percent again in 2007, ending the year at around 4 percent, with an average for the year of 3.5 percent.," Munster wrote in a note to clients.
With an average market share of 3.5 percent for the year, Apple would sell 9.01 million Macs during the course of the year, according to the analyst's estimates. That's significantly more than Street consensus estimates of 6.95 million Macs based on an average market share of 2.7 percent.
The additional 2.06 million Macs would add more than $2.8 billion to Apple's bottom line, Munster said, making the Street's current earnings-per-share estimates for the Cupertino, Calif.-based company some $0.35, or 11.6 percent, too low.
According to IDC, Apple's current worldwide Mac market share stands at 2.8 percent.
Comments
They will obviously sell 10 Million or more
Sebastian
Don't forget that we may see a large portion of the 2 million creative pros replacing aging hardware upon the release of Adobe upgades. I've only bought 4 new Macs in the past 3 years and next year I'll buy at least 2 maybe 3.
MW
http://forums.appleinsider.com/images/smilies/1eek.gif
Rosetta problems for the most part will be disappearing in 2007 with Adobe and Microsoft, the 2 largest 3rd Party Developers, making their Software Universal.
As the Footprint grows, so will the amount of "Word-of-Mouth" marketing, and the more Widespread Macs will become.
People still using Older Macs (eMacs, G3 iBooks, etc.) will likely want to upgrade this year.
If the 12" Powerbook is indeed replaced by a 12" Macbook Pro, then fans of those will madly buy them up.
I don't believe in Halo Effects
Sebastian
Just because they sell 9 million Macs next year doen't mean their market share will rise. Depending on how many PCs are sold..it could decline, remain the same, or rise.
Apple has been growing faster than the market; therefore, their market share has increased.
If the iPhone can sell 12 million units we'll have a second driver of sales to 1st time Mac users. The iTV has the potential to blow things open if in fact we only got a tease. If the thing turns out to be a smart DVR capable of time shifting all your favorite programing along with with wireless .n streaming of all one's digital content lots of news users.
Don't forget that we may see a large portion of the 2 million creative pros replacing aging hardware upon the release of Adobe upgades. I've only bought 4 new Macs in the past 3 years and next year I'll buy at least 2 maybe 3.
MW
http://forums.appleinsider.com/images/smilies/1eek.gif
LOL@only 4 new Macs in the past 3 years.
Apple has been growing faster than the market; therefore, their market share has increased.
According to IDC, Apple's current worldwide Mac market share stands at 2.8 percent.
I sure hope that Apple's Mac market share is a bit more than 2.8%!
Excuse me. They have not been growing faster than the PC market.
Yes, they have, since about '04.
Apple has been growing faster than the market; therefore, their market share has increased.
Excuse me. They have not been growing faster than the PC market.
Oh who am I to believe?!?! Both of your arguments are so convincing! Pretty soon we will all have to start paying the two of you for being Mac Analysts!
Oh who am I to believe?!?! Both of your arguments are so convincing! Pretty soon we will all have to start paying the two of you for being Mac Analysts!
I'm not gonna waste my time citing market reports that are non-contradictory and readily available.
Apple market share decreased in the mid-90s and the early 2000s. It has since grown for a while.
But here's a number, if you want: Apple's laptop US retail-only market share has gone from 6% to 12% in the first half to 2006, according to NPD.
http://www.systemshootouts.org/mac_sales.html
yeah I was actually looking at sales/marketshare graphs...slow work day.
I'm not gonna waste my time citing market reports that are non-contradictory and readily available.
Apple market share decreased in the mid-90s and the early 2000s. It has since grown for a while.
But here's a number, if you want: Apple's laptop US retail-only market share has gone from 6% to 12% in the first half to 2006, according to NPD.
Careful about the laptop market share figures -- AFAIK that's percentage of SALES of laptops during that period. Does not mean "of all the laptops currently being used in the US".
Careful about the laptop market share figures -- AFAIK that's percentage of SALES of laptops during that period. Does not mean "of all the laptops currently being used in the US".
Sales being precisely what market share is. Are you sure you don't mean "install base"?
Appleinsider:
"Apple's Mac market share in the third quarter of 2006 was 2.8 percent and will likely be around 3.0 percent for the fourth quarter, the analyst said, up from 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
This is strangely reminiscent of Thomas Edison's edict that genius only had 2% inspiration. The rest was hard work.
However, I do agree that Mac Pro sales are going to go nuts when CS3 and Office 07 are released in Universal Binaries.
I'm not trying to argue, but I was looking at some charts when this thread was posted.
http://www.systemshootouts.org/mac_sales.html
yeah I was actually looking at sales/marketshare graphs...slow work day.
If you take a look at the charts, Apple's worldwide market share has been trending upward since 2004 after a steady deline before then.
PS3 launches in 4 seconds! In 8 years of using Photoshop, I have never seen it launch in less than 20-30+ seconds.
I do plan to replace my Power Mac with an Intel-based Mac in May 2007.
Sales being precisely what market share is. Are you sure you don't mean "install base"?
Oh frack, my bad... I thought all along when they were talking market share it was installed base.