Apple seen following iPod expansion strategy with iPhone
this seems very resonable!
Also if you look at Apple.com, they have put the iphone in its own new catagory. Not with the ipod products.
And when they launch a cheap ipod nano style of phone, thats when they are REALLY gonna get a grab of much more than 1% of the mobile market.
imagine like 5% of the market. That would be 50 million units sold a year!
insane
Also if you look at Apple.com, they have put the iphone in its own new catagory. Not with the ipod products.
And when they launch a cheap ipod nano style of phone, thats when they are REALLY gonna get a grab of much more than 1% of the mobile market.
imagine like 5% of the market. That would be 50 million units sold a year!
insane
Comments
this seems very resonable!
Also if you look at Apple.com, they have put the iphone in its own new catagory. Not with the ipod products.
And when they launch a cheap ipod nano style of phone, thats when they are REALLY gonna get a grab of much more than 1% of the mobile market.
imagine like 5% of the market. That would be 50 million units sold a year!
insane
iPhone is tab worthy!
I think this is what we will see in 2008
iPhone Phone + iPod + Internet $399 & $499 (MWSF Jan 2008)
iPhone nano Phone + iPod (no video) $299 (MWSF Jan 2008)
iPhone hello Phone + iPod shuffle $199 (Oct 2008)
Steve had to get the iPhone name because it makes it easy for people who are already familiar with the iPod line up to understand the iPhone line up.
Would they release those silently?
The iPhone is priced too high for most people. It will be very hard to achieve the stated goal of 1% market share (mind you, the smart phone market is much smaller) unless cheaper phones are on their way and/or the phones will be subsidized by Cingular (like all other phones) along with a 2 year contract.
The price for the phones is the subsidized price with a 2 year contract. Also, the price is high, but then again, Grandma doesn't need the iPhone, but someone who carries a Palm, a cell phone and an iPod nano is probably going to pay it without blinking because it combines the three devices into one. I expect we'll see a lot more advancement in the software as the months go by. They have me sold ... come on Apple, only 9,999,999 more people to go!!!!
On another note, I was kinda irked by the name change. I understand why they're doing it, but I hope Apple continues to devote its LARGER focus to the Mac and OS X....
I think the Apple TV and iPhone are both great products, but is there another conference coming up where they might introduce an iWork and iLife upgrade? I would love to see some Blu-Ray burning capabilities on iDVD and could use an EXCELish app on my iWork.
Would they release those silently?
Expect a special event before the end of the month.
Also Vista's launch date is Jan 30, 2007 which is a Tuesday.
Since Apple likes to do their events on Tuesdays, it will most likely be on the 23rd.
I'm sure Steve would love to take the steam out of the Vista launch by announcing the other 5 super secret features of Leopard.
Also we will be seeing the "I'm a Mac, I'm a PC" "Peripherals" commercial that was shown yesterday a lot in the coming month.
http://movies.apple.com/movies/us/ap...ry_480x376.mov
The future is bright (and expandable).
"We believe this is the first of many cell phones from AAPL with AAPL having the potential to revolutionize the space," analyst Shaw Wu told his clients following the company's iPhone unveiling on Tuesday. "While its $499 and $599 price points appear high, they are highly functional devices and best-in-class."
Wu said it would not come as a surprise to see simpler Apple-branded cell phones in the future at much more aggressive price points. "We believe AAPL will likely follow its iPod strategy, which is to start out at the high-end and then trickle down to mid-range and low-end," he said.
Overall, the analyst says he is "very impressed with iPhone and its minimalist touchscreen design," but finds the functionality much more ambitious and aggressive than we anticipated for a first phone.
Of all the analysts chiming in on Apple these days, Wu was one of the most vocal in his convictions that an Apple handset was growing increasingly near. However, as he conceded in his note to clients Wednesday morning, he did not foresee the initial product as a single device that would act as widescreen video iPod, a cell phone, and a mini Mac running Mac OS X.
"We had picked up from our supply chain sources a candy bar form factor, widescreen technology, and Bluetooth, however, we did not anticipate it to be just one device," he said.
Attendees stare in astonishment at Apple's iPhone device at Macworld Expo in San Francisco.
In terms of functionality, Wu said the iPhone's multi-touch interface, full-page web browsing, free Yahoo e-mail access, widescreen digital media player, and tight integration with iTunes are some of its most compelling and competitive differentiators. He sees such features delivering success over similar but now less capable alternatives in the Sony Walkman phone, LG Chocolate, and Samsung BlackJack.
And while the analyst admits that choosing Cingular as its exclusive wireless carrier in the US reduces Apple's control over the iPhone experience, he believes it "is the right move and a less risky strategy" than forming its own mobile virtual network operator (MVNO).
"Arguably, AAPL has less control over the experience, but it will stick with its core competencies ? which is making and marketing the best hardware and software ? while Cingular will handle the service and billing," he wrote.
Wu maintained his Buy rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
I think the Apple TV and iPhone are both great products, but is there another conference coming up where they might introduce an iWork and iLife upgrade? I would love to see some Blu-Ray burning capabilities on iDVD and could use an EXCELish app on my iWork.
I totally agree. I just bought my first Mac at the end of December and was holding off getting iWork until the 2007 version appeared. Now I'm left wondering if/when that will happen. I'd be really mad if I bought the '06 version and then a week later the '07 version was announced considering I wouldn't be given any credit for my purchase of '06.
Am I the only one left a little bit annoyed after the keynote yesterday? The Apple TV basically turns your TV into an iPod screen with a Front Row interface. The 40GB HD is too small to actually be useful as a media center (if I synced all my media to it today, it would already be full). There's been no talk of it allowing external drives to attach to it for additional storage. The Apple thinking seems to be you'd only put videos on it and stream music to it. And it's only for widescreen TV's so I'm left out in the cold regardless. For those that aren't it only has lowly 720p output (with possible 1080i upconverting). So for real high-def TV downloads, you're left turning to Microsoft and the XBox 360; Good job on that one, Steve. Even if there's an iTunes update it would probably only be up to the 720p max of the AppleTV and whatever shows you'd already bought would still be stuck at the lower quality, plus the fear that maybe this time next year AppleTV 2 will roll out with true 1080p and another update to video quality in the iTunes store so you could once again buy the same shows or movies again. And there's not a chance in Hell I'll ever dowload a movie from iTunes so long as I can buy a DVD for just about the same price.
The iPhone is really cool, but where is the true video iPod? The phone looks like an amazing piece of technology but am I asking too much to wish it had a 30 or 80 HD inside? Comparing the prices of the Nano and current video iPod, it clearly isn't that much of a price difference to swap out the flash RAM for a HD, so why not give consumers that choice. I'm fine with it being a .25" or even .5" thicker because of it.
It is apparently for now taking the place of the true video iPod yet even the more expensive model will only allow you to put maybe 20 1-hour length iTunes TV episodes on it. On the 8GB model, I could either put 1/3 of my music collection or 1/2 of my video collection. Just give me a version without the phone portions and a 30 or 80GB hard drive and I'd be happy; I'd even be willing to pay the $500 or $600 for it. Heck with wi-fi and a VoIP app, I could pretty much do everything the phone does without being tied to Cingular for 2 years.
There's a part of me that really wants the iPhone (since my Verizon contract is nearly up), but there's that other part that is just left annoyed.
why is every one so upset that apple went with cingular. is there network so much worse than any other. people say that the price is high but it is mostley just sticker shock. if you lumped together a ipod nano cellphone and blackberry like device combined their prices is about the same as apples iphone.
Natan....
It's all about the numbers....
Market Share:
Cingular apx 59.8 million (US)
Verizon apx 57 million (US)
Sprint 53.7 million (US)
T-Mobile 27.5 million (US / 99 mill worldwide)
No matter what Apple did they would have had a TON of people mad at this *INITIAL* announcement.
The fact is. to get the level of integration that the iPhone provides they HAD TO get special support from the a cellular network provider. The only way a cellular network provider would ever make changes to their network just to support a series of cell phone features is:
1 - Be 'wowed' by the mockup demos of the cell phone in action
(sorry but I just don't buy the 'we signed a deal sight unseen crap that the Cingular CEO was talkin)
2 - Insist on some type of EXCLUSIVE deal to use/sell the phone.
So this means that Apple NEEDED to partner with one of them to get the job done...
Now, before anyone pops up with 'I want an open...' we can drop that idea right now.... as much as we'd all like an 'open phone' neither the cell phone makers nor the cell service providers want us to have it so it ain't gonna happen - we live in a world where the companies are exerting more and more control over our very lives and it's only getting worse...
- They control how/where we watch moves (region code crap)
- They control the ability to record time-shift shows (broadcast flag)
- They control the level of quality you get to see and/or the ability to see the content at all when watching a new hidef dvd - used as generic term (via HDCP or whatever its called)
- They control how we use almost every aspect of using the cell phone and have the ability to charge monthly fees for features that were built into the phone and don't need any 'support' from the provider.
The list goes on and on.... Like I said it's only going to get worse as more companies / industries realize they too can impose a MUCH tighter grip on its customers and at the same time profit more from doing so...
If we 'the citizens of the WORLD' don't put a stop to it soon it'll snowball.
Dave
The iPhone is priced too high for most people. It will be very hard to achieve the stated goal of 1% market share (mind you, the smart phone market is much smaller) unless cheaper phones are on their way and/or the phones will be subsidized by Cingular (like all other phones) along with a 2 year contract.
I can't find hard numbers for 2006, but it looks like that smart phones should have accounted for 10% or more of the entire mobile phone market. Apple's number would be 10% of that. At least they are admitting that they aren't going to take over any segment of the market yet.
One aspect that will take some time for the unwashed to realize is the increased functionality this phone will have as software is made for it. The fact that its software driven makes it upgradeable in ways people haven't considered. Apple is very strategic in getting a foot in the door with users, only to expand usage in new ways over time. This is a platform, not just a phone etc. The fact that it does all these things right from the start is a sign of how sophisticated is has the potential of being. Now, imagine a few well-designed attachments-- say for a power adapter, usb plug, dvi/vga connector, flux capacitor-- all for presentations using a keynote, or powerpoint. This is a true all in one device. I'd love to teach my classes with this tiny thing instead of bringing a laptop.
The future is bright (and expandable).
Mac users tend to be very creative so they will come up with uses we can't imagine.
I'm also thinking business uses.
Mobile Point of Sale device?
Inventory tracking (barcode scanning with camera)
Network administrators(terminal, ssh, monitoring apps)
Sales force presentations from the phone + micro projector(use the phone as remote/note cards
It's not Cingular's network that sucks—it's fairly good as cell networks go—it's their business practices. Cingular is popular and they are milking it; nickel and dimeing their customers every chance they can get. T-Mobile treats their customers much better in this regard.
True... but the fact is - All things being not so equal... people go for quality of signal first and foremost. Followed very closely by cost of service (perhaps price is a tad above quality for many) almost never does customer service enter the picture.
Example - in my area 30 miles outside of NYC here's how things shook out for me.
- Verizon excellent signal just about everywhere - priced high
- Cingular fairly good signal both at home and in NYC priced middle of the road
- T-Mobile signal okay in NYC but TOTALLY dead at home - price middle to low
Guess who I settled on... Cingular since the cell phone was never a huge part of my existence (I'm not a kid and not in sales etc) and I just wasn't gonna pay premium prices to Verizon no matter how good their signal was. Fast forward to today and now Verizon and Cingular are pretty darn close in price but Cingular still wins out since Verizon has the WORST cell phone choices...Hey anyone verizon people here??? Did they EVER come out with a phone that had bluetooth built in?
Dave
Another thing regarding what Wu said. Suppose they do release an iPhone nano. same size and all (maybe a little wider) but with touchscreen. What would that do to existing nano's? Who would buy a nano with a click wheel when there's the iPhone?
The big question I have is, if they take this multi-touch interface into the iPod line, will that mean the death of the click wheel? I don't think everybody would prefer using the touchscreen over the click wheel.
1. Verizon in its own announcements this week has already set up to compete with Apple in music and video downloads. Maybe Apple wanted Verizon and Verizon decided to compete with Apple rather than partner. Whatever happened back in the board rooms, We know have the beginnings of a two-sided war (like DVD-HD and Blue Ray). Check out the studios going with Verizon. No way did they want to help Apple in any of this. I don't like it, but we all now - at least in 6 months - have to pick sides!
2. Cingular will have to change its system to support this phone. It won't remain the slowest network by year's end. I won't be in the market for a new phone until 2008 anyway, so I'm happy to let early adopters carry the load for awhile and work out the kinks.
3. The tech for communications may be "old" but everything is about the interface and Apple needed to get this out into the market with patents to protect to stake its innovations in UI - not in 3-way calling. Just as with Intel, Apple will change Cingular's DNA a bit.
4. This friggin thing runs OSX!!! Have you no clue what that means? This is a proof of concept for tablets and pda's of the future. Apple just needed to enter a stable market, with partners in the telecom industry to get the thing going. I predict in 3 years (Cingular keeps saying "multi-year" but not how many) Apple will have more than Cingular and more then one iPhone for all of your choices. It just probably won't have Verizon (see #1). A 10" tablet with multi-touch is probably only one year away!!
5. This thing will be firmware upgradeable!! The multi-touch will allow any kind of virtual buttons to be configured. If Apple has made the widgets run on a dashboard like layer, then 3rd parties may be easily able to run all of those other widgets and any new mini-apps on it.
6. No one carrier is THAT much better than any other carrier. Verizon is good, and I've was disappointed with T-Mobile, but anyone who is solely going to make a decision about this phone based upon the carrier is probably not going to buy it anyway. The iPhone finally makes the device more important than the carrier. I just don't know how Cingular does in the rural West where I do need coverage.
7. How quickly do you think it will take for games to be run on this thing 'a la PSP? Like the steering wheel accessory to the Wii controller, I bet we'll have a game controller that accepts the iPhone with handles and lets us play with buttons and the accelerometers!!! BTW, does anyone know how the screen compares to the PSP?
So complain all you want, but crimeny, realize that a few things are going to change in 6 months and realize that Verizon and friends are in it for a long war.
I have cingular already so that's no problem for me, I like them fine. Most of my family has cingular as well. So I rarely use my minutes since cingular to cingular is free. But, I agree I would rather have the same device without the cell phone.
Then buy an iPod next year.
Another thing regarding what Wu said. Suppose they do release an iPhone nano. same size and all (maybe a little wider) but with touchscreen. What would that do to existing nano's? Who would buy a nano with a click wheel when there's the iPhone?
People who don't have $500 on a phone. Simple enough.
The big question I have is, if they take this multi-touch interface into the iPod line, will that mean the death of the click wheel? I don't think everybody would prefer using the touchscreen over the click wheel.
Why can't iPods continue to have clickwheels and iPhones and iTablets (future) have multi-touch? Why can't Apple keep both in production as long as they both sell and make money? Why do people hear try to act like marketing managers and assume the most simplistic future?
delete me
I'll try.