As far as unlocking goes, I can't see Apple and Cingular simply flouting the law. It's possible that Cingular pushed the responsibility ontyo Apple. At least that's what it sounds like from what has been said.
There must be some other way.
In regard to the 2 year contract, that shouldn't be a hindrance. You can get out of contracts by paying a fee, often pro rated. The company you are moving to will sometimes even pay the fee for you.
I would imagine that T-Mobile might be willing.
But, don't forget that the random access voice mail is a work that requires BOTH the iPhone and Cingular. It won't work anywhere else. At least, not now. After the multiyear deal is over, it should be interesting.
I'm wondering what that deal allows in Europe and Asia. Is it possible that, as Cingular doesn't compete there, the software can be licensed to carriers in those regions? Would Cingular get royalties from that? Would other carriers be willing to pay, if they were asked? If they don't pay, how can that work there?
As far as unlocking goes, I can't see Apple and Cingular simply flouting the law. It's possible that Cingular pushed the responsibility ontyo Apple. At least that's what it sounds like from what has been said.
There must be some other way.
In regard to the 2 year contract, that shouldn't be a hindrance. You can get out of contracts by paying a fee, often pro rated. The company you are moving to will sometimes even pay the fee for you.
I would imagine that T-Mobile might be willing.
But, don't forget that the random access voice mail is a work that requires BOTH the iPhone and Cingular. It won't work anywhere else. At least, not now. After the multiyear deal is over, it should be interesting.
I'm wondering what that deal allows in Europe and Asia. Is it possible that, as Cingular doesn't compete there, the software can be licensed to carriers in those regions? Would Cingular get royalties from that? Would other carriers be willing to pay, if they were asked? If they don't pay, how can that work there?
Is T-Mobile in the USA screwed?
Hey... The 2 year contract will be somewhat of a hindrance because (as I dreadfully had to experience), there is still a huge payout fee even if it is pro-rata'd somewhat. It *is* interesting that in the US other carriers will pay this out for you, boy that's pretty cutthroat. I think T-Mobile or others would be sued to hell and back in the US if they did it with the iPhone.
In Europe and Asia and Australia, there are just too many carriers to deal with, to make a deal, so to speak. Apple will just sell full unlocked outright purchase. Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
This is good! Why is this good? If they already fight now Apple might open up th iPhone to other carriers rather sooner than later. More choice = lower price. Well not always, but you know what I mean. You go Apple, slap that bi*ch. Just about each and every carrier deserves to be spanked well for their business models. Arrogant money grabbing bi*ches.
Hey... The 2 year contract will be somewhat of a hindrance because (as I dreadfully had to experience), there is still a huge payout fee even if it is pro-rata'd somewhat. It *is* interesting that in the US other carriers will pay this out for you, boy that's pretty cutthroat. I think T-Mobile or others would be sued to hell and back in the US if they did it with the iPhone.
In Europe and Asia and Australia, there are just too many carriers to deal with, to make a deal, so to speak. Apple will just sell full unlocked outright purchase. Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
Too many carriers is right.
See this take. The guy is supposed to be an expert on the phone industry. He does make some interesting points which look valid.
Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
Yea possibly; at least I hope so 8) . But what would Apple be able to do with a business-oriented smartphone?
1) Push email through exchange, etc. Ok
2) word, excel, ppt? I don't know... These apps are very lowsy on the Windows Mobile phones and Apple needs to work with the Mac BU in order to get it out so it might take a very long while (seeing as to how Office for Mac 2008 is still long away development-wise).
Perhaps the rumours of iWorks integration with the phone are true.
I've always wondered why an email server couldn't automatically open an attached word document, convert to pdf, and THEN send it to me.
Quote:
So where else can they expand on the business-centric iPhone?
I think the main thing is allowing businesses to have their own applications. Perhaps the OS is too unprotected to allow this.
The problem with a closed solution is that you either do EVERYTHING, or you have to open it up to others. Apple doesn't have the business collaboration smarts. Knowledge sharing and workflow apps could use a re-invention but I think it's a bit beyond Apple to do it all.
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
Hardmac.com is reporting that "The Battle for Europe" has begun:
The Battle for the iPhone Has Started in Europe - Eric - 13:43:43 - Comments
Source : The Times, UK
The iPhone is barely 3 days old, and already mobile phone operators in Europe are scrambling to get the coveted "exclusive deal" with Apple. The article from The Times in the UK goes on and cites several operators reputedly negotiating with Apple; among them O2, Vodafone, Telefónica, Orange and T-Mobile are all contenders for the contract.
The iPhone is again reported not 3G-compatible in its current status, but it remains still unclear if the delayed introduction in Europe and Japan is only due to distribution rights negotiations or rather required by some technical/hardware upgrades to make it more suited for more advanced networks technologies in Europe and Japan. But with the moderate adoption of 3Gs in most European countries over the last year, one can imagine that Apple might not bother preparing a special version for Europe, in Japan it will be another story .
Now, how many of us will consider changing the mobile phone subscription and/or carrier only based on the availability of the iPhone? Let us know in the dedicated topic on our forum: here.
Heh. Hella long article. It's late now, and I'm watching (kind) the Australian Open Tennis, so... Anyways 8)
Unfortunately adding 3G to the phone involves a complete additional radio unit, increasing weight, complexity, reducing battery life etc. So this is not an easy upgrade to the next iPhone. Adding 3G is a very complex and costly step, and it also requires "double" the amount of testing at all network operators before it is accepted into the supported handset portfolios of any operator. This may be part of the reason why Apple launches in America first (being the laggard market in mobile telecoms and in 3G) and Europe next, with Asia last (as South Korea and Japan are the industry leaders especially for handsets, mobile internet and music on mobile, as well as 3G)
I would say some of this is spot-on. GSM-EDGE is perfect as a launching pad. Europe then Asia would mean working out a 2.xG to 3G deal. However I don't think adding 3G is that big a mess, Apple has what, a FRICKIN' WHOLE YEAR to up the phone to 3G.
The camera is perhaps the most disappointing feature at only 2 megapixels. That may be borderline ok for January 2007 - but many new cameraphones are now in the 3 to 5 megapixel range, and by June 2007 when this is to hit the market, 2 megapixels may well be very "last year". But it is also something Apple might be able to upgrade rather quickly to at least 3 megapixels.
Exactly. He says it himself. Apple may very well ship with 3megapixels+ :: The iPhone as a digital camera. Leave your digicams (except for SLRdigitals) at home.
The writer is very informed on the various markets. The article is very heavily oriented towards marketshare-by-country.
Remember, Apple does not operate in this fashion. They set a units-sold-per-quarter/year with each unit having a "at the end of the day all stuff calculated" 20-30% profit margin.
Let's randomly set $550 USD as the average selling price. A 20% margin would mean that 20% of that is profit (am I right here?) which is $110 USD PER UNIT.
Steve's target for 2007 (really just 2nd half of 2007) is 10 million units. 10,000,000 x 110 = 1100 million = 1.1 billion profit. Quarterly profit at the moment is what, 200-500 million USD...
So upon launch of iPhone in USA is 5 million units per quarter, with a heavier weight of sales coming in the Christmas quarter (those smart Apple people, they've got a "must-have-if-you-can-afford-it" gadget to covet for during Christmas frenzy...)
"Steve Jobs has such confidence in the new iPhone that he has said he wants to sell over 10 million of them by 2008...10 million iPhones in less than 6 months" (from some other article)
Back to the article...
If we assign American smartphone users evenly across the operators, and therefore Cingular would have the same proportion of smartphone users as their overall marketshare (not a fair assumption, as for example Nextel and Verizon are very strong in the corporate customer segments where the majority of smartphones are sold), then out of the 9 million smartphones sold in America next year, Cingular has only 2.4 million. OUCH !!!
To reach its target, Apple would have to convince every Cingular smartphone user (probably many very loyal to their Motorolas, Nokias, SonyEricssons etc) to switch to the iPhone. This means all Blackberry users in its network with corporate e-mail clients therefore as well; and then capture AS MANY new customers by stealing them from the rival networks. Cannot be done. Is totally beyond all reason. If the GSM standard based smartphone market in America is about 4.3 million, Apple cannot capture all of that. Not in one year, not even with a miracle phone. And the iPhone is far from a miracle phone.
MUSICPHONES...But all is not lost for Apple in America. While the analysts talk about the smartphone market, I would rather look at the musicphone market. That is much larger. It includes many cheaper musicphones, but for many considering a mid-range musicphone, when the iPhone becomes available, it will well be a worthwhile alternative, even if on the high end of what that customer would be willing to pay.
How big? Gartner tells us they sold 309 million musicphones in 2006 (vs about 40-42 million iPods. Can you guess the theme of my upcoming iPod vs musicphone review next week when Apple releases official numbers for the Christmas quarter of iPod sales?). Musicphone sales rocketed in 2006, more than doubling. It is fair to assume, even at very conservative rates, that musicphone sales will reach 400 million units in 2007. This of course includes most of the 120 million smartphones mentioned above.
Now we are talking about a valid market opportunity for Apple. 10 million means only 2.5%, and that is quite do-able.
So back to America. If we again assume that the 7.5% of all musicphones are sold in America, it gives us a market of 30 million. If under half are on GSM, we're at 14 million, and out of those, if Apple wants 4.7 million - that means 33.5%. A tall order, but it can be done. Out of Cingular's own customers it can be done and not all need to be converted. With a bit of clever marketing - Cingular will want to use this as its competitive advantage in capturing churning customers - it can be a very potent tool to steal customers from the rival networks. Certainly knowing Apple, we will get a massive, exciting and creative launch campaign. Everybody will hear of the iPhone in America in June.
It's tricky slicing and dicing the numbers. Essentially Apple and Cingular need to get 5 million subscribers per quarter from people that want a video ipod, a sexyiPhone, slickPDAsmartphone, and/or all of those.
I think Apple has thought about the market segmentation long and hard, and the features we've seen will be upgraded to match the market competitors in 2nd half 2007.
An initial discussion looking only at "Smartphones on GSM" is grim but think about iPods and "MusicMobilePhones" and things really start to expand.
I personally think Apple in 2nd half 2007 will hit 12 million iPhone units sold which also equals 12 million subscribers from Cingular existing or churned from other carriers.
It's very interesting. Macs continue to gain momentum, iPods are well, you all know the story, and the iPhone is a "highest-end iPod" so it won't cannibalize sales of other iPods but at the same time it opens up a new market for Apple - the mobile phone/ smartphone/ musicphone/ etc. market.
This means real, long-term customer-service and relationship management with the carriers. Yes, one hundred of them in Europe, another 100 of them in Asia. Does Apple have an army of account managers to manage all of these? Do they have the distribution systems in place with DHL to ship the phones as these customers will then demand to fit their given launches, replacements, upgrade plans etc. Where can I have my Orange logo. Where can I have my Vodafone Live button, etc etc etc.
I think Apple is thinking very long and hard about global expansion. Global mobile phone market share is a much juicier target than just mp3 players. If Apple is locked into Cingular in a 2-year contract, that means their US growth is dependent largely on Cingular upgrade customers and churn from carriers.
The key follow-on in 2008 is Europe and Asia. Yes, so we are back to, there's a frickin' BOATLOAD of carriers. Apple is right now thinking long and hard, and as AppleInsider reported, hiring top-notch mobile platform engineers to look at 2008.
So there we have it: Apple's Goals for 2nd half 2007:
3.5 million Cingular iPhone USA subscribers July-Sep
6.5 million Cingular iPhone USA subscribers Oct-Dec
Apple's Goals for 2008:
5 million per quarter GLOBAL sales of iPhone.
Figure out the most efficient and effective way to launch, differentiate models and support iPhones in the major target mobile phone markets globally.
This is NEW for Apple. This is what it really means that the first 30 years were the beginning.
Macs rock. iPods rock harder. But it's baby stuff compared to what the iPhone will mean for revenues, profits approaching 1 billion USD per quarter possibly in 2008, and........ who knows.....
But Apple has their work cut out for them in 2007-2008 with 1. iPhone growth and 2. Maintaining wide integration across the whole range of Apple Inc. products and services.
By the way everyone, my MacBook 2.0ghz 2gb RAM fracking RAWKS THE HOUSE. Except when cores are 60% (both) or more loaded, fan spins to 6200rpm and it's wind-tunnel city. Almost equal to the fan noise of a standard Dell/ HP desktop PC. 1 dead pixel and 2 "pushed pixel" white-ish spots. Murphy's law. But overall, for AUD$1500, good frickin' deal. I'm using frickin' alot. Well, still in MacWorld ReHab, so I'll stop talking about my MacBook for now. Here at Rehab they limit my sessions to wean me down to a reasonable daily RDF dosage including using a OMFG finally 10.4.8 snappy Mac. And WinxP2pro flies on a 10gb-fixed-size Parallels virtual disk (build 1920 Parallels Desktop Mac). Only thing is Rosetta needs a good chunk of the 2gb to run well, so can't run Adobe-Macromedia concurrently with Parallels. But I could run Adobe-Macromedia in Windoze Parallels. But like, eww... I feel "dirty" now whenever I fire up WinXP in the MacBook, particularly next to OSX (I no need do BootCamping). Windows Vista runs quite alright, actually, as well, in Parallels, but it's like a hooker - all tarted up for instant sex appeal but when you look closer, hmm....
I'm starting to "get" what this whole iPhone thing is about. It's a bit annoying to me, because since a mid-end HandSpring PDA, and a diehard now SonyEricsson- just- do- what- a- phone- does- and- a- little- bit- more- that's- good- enough -for -me....... I am mostly a computer geek not a gadget geek.
But really, for Apple Inc. now, looking back at Macs and iPods, it's like the dinner rolls (small buns) that you munch on before the big-ass Peppered Steak main course of the iPhone.
It will take a bit of rethinking. Apple Inc. will transition in 2007-2008 into a "personal and connected digital experience" company, based on the strong fundamentals (and phenomenal flexibility to run on stuff from a G3PowerPC to a IntelOctoXeon to whatever-the-hell-iPhone-runs-on) of MacOSX.
Such a lame expression, huh, "personal+connected digital experience" -- but as we all know, the Apple experience is unique, attractive, and continues to gain ground.
It is just extremely important to keep in mind Apple is not about killing Microsoft, Nokia, Dell, or anything like that.
It is essentially expanding on the core vision (Steve Jobs, John Ives et al) while continually increasing quarterly profits.
Mainstream journalists, like they have for years, will try and pin Apple down as the "perennial underdog" but as a company and looking at the core vision and profits, well, Macs will be some sort of minority. But iPods are de facto mp3 players. Just keep in mind the iPhone in relation to all mobile phones in the world. It could be as big as the iPod. But let's start smooth, look how long it took (about 5 years?) for every kid in the Western world to have an iPod...
It'll be an interesting ride. Almost as interesting as figuring out what the frack to do with my life. Hey. Getting a 2nd-hand Core1Duo MacBook at a good price and with appropriate financing from myself + my parents + some government aid (bipolar disability) is a start...
Wasn't there a law passed recently that says that cell phone companies have to enable the sim chips (is that the right term) in phones to be used in competitor's networks? If that is so, the restriction with Cingular is based on the unique GSM network that Cingular has in the US.
Technically, there was no new law passed.
This was a bureaucratic decision taken by the Library of Congress acting as administrators of the existing copyright laws including the DMCA. Under these laws, the LoC has the authority to define certain temporary exemptions to the interpretation of copyright if petitions are put forward and found to have merit.
In this specific case, the new regulation says that people who independently crack the "DRM-like technology" used to lock a cell phone to a single service provider are not breaking any laws in doing so.
Effectively, Cell network providers are still free to lock their phones, and they're under no obligation to give instructions for unlocking. However, individuals who come across the knowledge to unlock the phones from some other source are free to do so without fear of legal punishment.
No matter how one looks at it, Apple allowed Cingular to have victory by giving into their God-foresaken service contracts and SHACKLING th iPhone to Cingular - a total un-Apple way of doing things with Apple products. It's such a shame, such a shame, absolutely sad. Steve Jobs and Apple have joined forces with the dark side. I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw Cingular CEO, Stan Sigman, up on stage rather than seeing Leopard or new Macs, etc. Stan was so drenched in ecstesy he had to use flash cards on stage to make his speach. Stan Sigman is bragging that he forced Apple to give into his Lock-in demands for the iPhone. What will be next? Maybe the next Mac Pro will require a 2 year Cingular contract. YUCK! I just don't beleive it. What a sad day in Mac/Apple history. So sad So mad
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
The voice mail function requires that the network it's being retreived from work with the feature. It's not strictly an Apple product, nor could it be.
No matter how one looks at it, Apple allowed Cingular to have victory by giving into their God-foresaken service contracts and SHACKLING th iPhone to Cingular - a total un-Apple way of doing things with Apple products. It's such a shame, such a shame, absolutely sad. Steve Jobs and Apple have joined forces with the dark side. I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw Cingular CEO, Stan Sigman, up on stage rather than seeing Leopard or new Macs, etc. Stan was so drenched in ecstesy he had to use flash cards on stage to make his speach. Stan Sigman is bragging that he forced Apple to give into his Lock-in demands for the iPhone. What will be next? Maybe the next Mac Pro will require a 2 year Cingular contract. YUCK! I just don't beleive it. What a sad day in Mac/Apple history. So sad So mad
This is a bit of a hysterical post.
There is nothing new about this kind of deal. Apple does it many times.
In business, both sides negotiate to their best advantage. While Cingular isn't popular on tech sites, they still have the largest subscription numbers. Apple wanted a GSM phone. T-Mobile has half the numbers. That's not useful to Apple. The rest of the companies are useless.
There is nothing new about this kind of deal. Apple does it many times.
In business, both sides negotiate to their best advantage. While Cingular isn't popular on tech sites, they still have the largest subscription numbers. Apple wanted a GSM phone. T-Mobile has half the numbers. That's not useful to Apple. The rest of the companies are useless.
It's simple math.
I don't like cell phone companies any more than the next guy, but it's business as usual, it's SOP in the industry.
Only if the basic rulez are changed at the federal level would we see substantive changes in the cell phone industry. And given the industry, the current FCC, the current administration, the lobbyist/PAC's, somehow I don't see that happening.
I don't like cell phone companies any more than the next guy, but it's business as usual, it's SOP in the industry.
Only if the basic rulez are changed at the federal level would we see substantive changes in the cell phone industry. And given the industry, the current FCC, the current administration, the lobbyist/PAC's, somehow I don't see that happening.
It would be nice if the carriers were forced to be more open. Aegis is always razzing me on that.
At some point it will happen. As more of these companies go international we will see it.
This administration will be gone in less than two years. We'll see what happens then. We have to lobby our officials. If they think we don't care (most don't), then they will not care.
No matter how one looks at it, Apple allowed Cingular to have victory by giving into their God-foresaken service contracts and SHACKLING th iPhone to Cingular - a total un-Apple way of doing things with Apple products. It's such a shame, such a shame, absolutely sad. Steve Jobs and Apple have joined forces with the dark side. I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw Cingular CEO, Stan Sigman, up on stage rather than seeing Leopard or new Macs, etc. Stan was so drenched in ecstesy he had to use flash cards on stage to make his speach. Stan Sigman is bragging that he forced Apple to give into his Lock-in demands for the iPhone. What will be next? Maybe the next Mac Pro will require a 2 year Cingular contract. YUCK! I just don't beleive it. What a sad day in Mac/Apple history. So sad So mad
Think about it this way: Apple obviously isn't one of the first to market with a cellphone as they were with the personal computer. They don't have the luxury of creating and shaping the development of a market segment. Over the past 25 or so years, the cellphone market has developed into the type of market where you need to pair yourself with a service provider if you want to be successful.
Sure Apple could create an unlocked cellphone which isn't tied to any service provider and hope that the average customer will dig hard enough to find it, and then figure out how to get it working with a service provider, but that's a lot to hope for. Pairing with a service provider buys them a much higher profile, and also ease of use because the phone is set up to "just work". Which is what the average person who could care less about the technical possibilities of a completely open phone wants. They want to get their iPhone and be able to start calling, texting, emailing from the second they get it. And they wouldn't get that experience if the iPhone wasn't paired with a service provider.
For the people who do want to open up all the possibilities of the phone, I can guarantee that it will be hacked within a few months of it's release, and you'll be free to do what you like if you buy a hacked version of it (or have the technical knowhow to apply whatever firmware hacks exist).
I'm sure whatever "locks" Apple puts on the phone will be about as difficult to break as the DRM on iTunes music. They won't be putting too much effort into them since it's not really in their interest to do so (only in Cingular's interest). They'll likely put as much effort as is necessary to avoid a lawsuit over breach of contract with Cingular.
I'm going to be very curious to see what the Cingular TOS are WRT the iPhone. What the penalty will be for breaking the 2-year contract. I broke a contract with them about 2 years ago and had to pay ~$200, so that I could get a cheaper plan elsewhere, it saved me money in the long run.
Is it a flat fee for all phones or do the more expensive phones carry a higher penalty?
My 1st reaction was cingular is a bunch of idiots for making these statements. But I realize that if they've been forcing RIM & Palm, etc to take it in the rear all this time and along comes Jobs and he claims the world will be a better place because Apple has forced the carriers to their knees that they might be just a bit concerned about how their former "partners" will perceive this.
Apple has the balls to show a version 1 product that blows everyone away and claims that it was all made possible by Apple's redesigning the partners business practices. Cingular is bound to be scrambling to change the impression that Apple was given the store as they say. Can you imagine the class action lawsuits when RIM et al. claim their demise was due to the carriers unwillingness to implement new features.
No claim was made of by '08 as I heard Jobs say by the end of calendar '08. I was seeking it specifically to figure if the claim was fiscal which would have given Apple 12-13 months or calendar giving them 18-19 months with 2 xmas seasons and global rollout. 10 million in 2 qtrs with Cingular is beyond even Apple but 10 million worldwide will be made to look easy. I predict they will have at least 2 models (maybe 4) and sell at least 6 million units in the qtr ending Dec '08.
If usage plans make this available for 20-40 per month with unlimited usage it really is a whole new internet. Is this digital lifestyle 4.0. I think maybe so. Xmas '09 3rd gen 3.x G iPhone 128 gig flash mem, 5 meg pix on rear with 1 meg pix on front for vid chat., full GPS capibility, unlocked OS X, voip for global calling, voice to text and text to voice. iDigital so what if they have have to give up the moniker iPhone. While it would be nice to have as it will help the dolts grok that it is a tool that they have some familiarity with it really hardly describes its potential.
Comments
Yeah, they won't be clearly grey, that kind of hacked phone is generally classified as 'intermediate gray'.
Pinstripe.
There must be some other way.
In regard to the 2 year contract, that shouldn't be a hindrance. You can get out of contracts by paying a fee, often pro rated. The company you are moving to will sometimes even pay the fee for you.
I would imagine that T-Mobile might be willing.
But, don't forget that the random access voice mail is a work that requires BOTH the iPhone and Cingular. It won't work anywhere else. At least, not now. After the multiyear deal is over, it should be interesting.
I'm wondering what that deal allows in Europe and Asia. Is it possible that, as Cingular doesn't compete there, the software can be licensed to carriers in those regions? Would Cingular get royalties from that? Would other carriers be willing to pay, if they were asked? If they don't pay, how can that work there?
Is T-Mobile in the USA screwed?
As far as unlocking goes, I can't see Apple and Cingular simply flouting the law. It's possible that Cingular pushed the responsibility ontyo Apple. At least that's what it sounds like from what has been said.
There must be some other way.
In regard to the 2 year contract, that shouldn't be a hindrance. You can get out of contracts by paying a fee, often pro rated. The company you are moving to will sometimes even pay the fee for you.
I would imagine that T-Mobile might be willing.
But, don't forget that the random access voice mail is a work that requires BOTH the iPhone and Cingular. It won't work anywhere else. At least, not now. After the multiyear deal is over, it should be interesting.
I'm wondering what that deal allows in Europe and Asia. Is it possible that, as Cingular doesn't compete there, the software can be licensed to carriers in those regions? Would Cingular get royalties from that? Would other carriers be willing to pay, if they were asked? If they don't pay, how can that work there?
Is T-Mobile in the USA screwed?
Hey... The 2 year contract will be somewhat of a hindrance because (as I dreadfully had to experience), there is still a huge payout fee even if it is pro-rata'd somewhat. It *is* interesting that in the US other carriers will pay this out for you, boy that's pretty cutthroat. I think T-Mobile or others would be sued to hell and back in the US if they did it with the iPhone.
In Europe and Asia and Australia, there are just too many carriers to deal with, to make a deal, so to speak. Apple will just sell full unlocked outright purchase. Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
Hey... The 2 year contract will be somewhat of a hindrance because (as I dreadfully had to experience), there is still a huge payout fee even if it is pro-rata'd somewhat. It *is* interesting that in the US other carriers will pay this out for you, boy that's pretty cutthroat. I think T-Mobile or others would be sued to hell and back in the US if they did it with the iPhone.
In Europe and Asia and Australia, there are just too many carriers to deal with, to make a deal, so to speak. Apple will just sell full unlocked outright purchase. Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
Too many carriers is right.
See this take. The guy is supposed to be an expert on the phone industry. He does make some interesting points which look valid.
It's a long article to read?even for you!
http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...apping_th.html
Finagling a deal with each carrier in different countries just for features like random-access voicemail, seems a lot of effort and resources for Apple to be involved in.
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
Yea possibly; at least I hope so 8) . But what would Apple be able to do with a business-oriented smartphone?
1) Push email through exchange, etc. Ok
2) word, excel, ppt? I don't know... These apps are very lowsy on the Windows Mobile phones and Apple needs to work with the Mac BU in order to get it out so it might take a very long while (seeing as to how Office for Mac 2008 is still long away development-wise).
Perhaps the rumours of iWorks integration with the phone are true.
I've always wondered why an email server couldn't automatically open an attached word document, convert to pdf, and THEN send it to me.
So where else can they expand on the business-centric iPhone?
I think the main thing is allowing businesses to have their own applications. Perhaps the OS is too unprotected to allow this.
The problem with a closed solution is that you either do EVERYTHING, or you have to open it up to others. Apple doesn't have the business collaboration smarts. Knowledge sharing and workflow apps could use a re-invention but I think it's a bit beyond Apple to do it all.
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
Hardmac.com is reporting that "The Battle for Europe" has begun:
The Battle for the iPhone Has Started in Europe - Eric - 13:43:43 - Comments
Source : The Times, UK
The iPhone is barely 3 days old, and already mobile phone operators in Europe are scrambling to get the coveted "exclusive deal" with Apple. The article from The Times in the UK goes on and cites several operators reputedly negotiating with Apple; among them O2, Vodafone, Telefónica, Orange and T-Mobile are all contenders for the contract.
The iPhone is again reported not 3G-compatible in its current status, but it remains still unclear if the delayed introduction in Europe and Japan is only due to distribution rights negotiations or rather required by some technical/hardware upgrades to make it more suited for more advanced networks technologies in Europe and Japan. But with the moderate adoption of 3Gs in most European countries over the last year, one can imagine that Apple might not bother preparing a special version for Europe, in Japan it will be another story .
Now, how many of us will consider changing the mobile phone subscription and/or carrier only based on the availability of the iPhone? Let us know in the dedicated topic on our forum: here.
See this take. The guy is supposed to be an expert on the phone industry. He does make some interesting points which look valid.
It's a long article to read—even for you!
http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...apping_th.html
Heh. Hella long article. It's late now, and I'm watching (kind) the Australian Open Tennis, so... Anyways 8)
Unfortunately adding 3G to the phone involves a complete additional radio unit, increasing weight, complexity, reducing battery life etc. So this is not an easy upgrade to the next iPhone. Adding 3G is a very complex and costly step, and it also requires "double" the amount of testing at all network operators before it is accepted into the supported handset portfolios of any operator. This may be part of the reason why Apple launches in America first (being the laggard market in mobile telecoms and in 3G) and Europe next, with Asia last (as South Korea and Japan are the industry leaders especially for handsets, mobile internet and music on mobile, as well as 3G)
I would say some of this is spot-on. GSM-EDGE is perfect as a launching pad. Europe then Asia would mean working out a 2.xG to 3G deal. However I don't think adding 3G is that big a mess, Apple has what, a FRICKIN' WHOLE YEAR to up the phone to 3G.
The camera is perhaps the most disappointing feature at only 2 megapixels. That may be borderline ok for January 2007 - but many new cameraphones are now in the 3 to 5 megapixel range, and by June 2007 when this is to hit the market, 2 megapixels may well be very "last year". But it is also something Apple might be able to upgrade rather quickly to at least 3 megapixels.
Exactly. He says it himself. Apple may very well ship with 3megapixels+ :: The iPhone as a digital camera. Leave your digicams (except for SLRdigitals) at home.
The writer is very informed on the various markets. The article is very heavily oriented towards marketshare-by-country.
Remember, Apple does not operate in this fashion. They set a units-sold-per-quarter/year with each unit having a "at the end of the day all stuff calculated" 20-30% profit margin.
Let's randomly set $550 USD as the average selling price. A 20% margin would mean that 20% of that is profit (am I right here?) which is $110 USD PER UNIT.
Steve's target for 2007 (really just 2nd half of 2007) is 10 million units. 10,000,000 x 110 = 1100 million = 1.1 billion profit.
So upon launch of iPhone in USA is 5 million units per quarter, with a heavier weight of sales coming in the Christmas quarter (those smart Apple people, they've got a "must-have-if-you-can-afford-it" gadget to covet for during Christmas frenzy...)
"Steve Jobs has such confidence in the new iPhone that he has said he wants to sell over 10 million of them by 2008...10 million iPhones in less than 6 months" (from some other article)
Back to the article...
If we assign American smartphone users evenly across the operators, and therefore Cingular would have the same proportion of smartphone users as their overall marketshare (not a fair assumption, as for example Nextel and Verizon are very strong in the corporate customer segments where the majority of smartphones are sold), then out of the 9 million smartphones sold in America next year, Cingular has only 2.4 million. OUCH !!!
To reach its target, Apple would have to convince every Cingular smartphone user (probably many very loyal to their Motorolas, Nokias, SonyEricssons etc) to switch to the iPhone. This means all Blackberry users in its network with corporate e-mail clients therefore as well; and then capture AS MANY new customers by stealing them from the rival networks. Cannot be done. Is totally beyond all reason. If the GSM standard based smartphone market in America is about 4.3 million, Apple cannot capture all of that. Not in one year, not even with a miracle phone. And the iPhone is far from a miracle phone.
MUSICPHONES...But all is not lost for Apple in America. While the analysts talk about the smartphone market, I would rather look at the musicphone market. That is much larger. It includes many cheaper musicphones, but for many considering a mid-range musicphone, when the iPhone becomes available, it will well be a worthwhile alternative, even if on the high end of what that customer would be willing to pay.
How big? Gartner tells us they sold 309 million musicphones in 2006 (vs about 40-42 million iPods. Can you guess the theme of my upcoming iPod vs musicphone review next week when Apple releases official numbers for the Christmas quarter of iPod sales?). Musicphone sales rocketed in 2006, more than doubling. It is fair to assume, even at very conservative rates, that musicphone sales will reach 400 million units in 2007. This of course includes most of the 120 million smartphones mentioned above.
Now we are talking about a valid market opportunity for Apple. 10 million means only 2.5%, and that is quite do-able.
So back to America. If we again assume that the 7.5% of all musicphones are sold in America, it gives us a market of 30 million. If under half are on GSM, we're at 14 million, and out of those, if Apple wants 4.7 million - that means 33.5%. A tall order, but it can be done. Out of Cingular's own customers it can be done and not all need to be converted. With a bit of clever marketing - Cingular will want to use this as its competitive advantage in capturing churning customers - it can be a very potent tool to steal customers from the rival networks. Certainly knowing Apple, we will get a massive, exciting and creative launch campaign. Everybody will hear of the iPhone in America in June.
It's tricky slicing and dicing the numbers. Essentially Apple and Cingular need to get 5 million subscribers per quarter from people that want a video ipod, a sexyiPhone, slickPDAsmartphone, and/or all of those.
I think Apple has thought about the market segmentation long and hard, and the features we've seen will be upgraded to match the market competitors in 2nd half 2007.
An initial discussion looking only at "Smartphones on GSM" is grim but think about iPods and "MusicMobilePhones" and things really start to expand.
I personally think Apple in 2nd half 2007 will hit 12 million iPhone units sold which also equals 12 million subscribers from Cingular existing or churned from other carriers.
It's very interesting. Macs continue to gain momentum, iPods are well, you all know the story, and the iPhone is a "highest-end iPod" so it won't cannibalize sales of other iPods but at the same time it opens up a new market for Apple - the mobile phone/ smartphone/ musicphone/ etc. market.
This means real, long-term customer-service and relationship management with the carriers. Yes, one hundred of them in Europe, another 100 of them in Asia. Does Apple have an army of account managers to manage all of these? Do they have the distribution systems in place with DHL to ship the phones as these customers will then demand to fit their given launches, replacements, upgrade plans etc. Where can I have my Orange logo. Where can I have my Vodafone Live button, etc etc etc.
I think Apple is thinking very long and hard about global expansion. Global mobile phone market share is a much juicier target than just mp3 players. If Apple is locked into Cingular in a 2-year contract, that means their US growth is dependent largely on Cingular upgrade customers and churn from carriers.
The key follow-on in 2008 is Europe and Asia. Yes, so we are back to, there's a frickin' BOATLOAD of carriers. Apple is right now thinking long and hard, and as AppleInsider reported, hiring top-notch mobile platform engineers to look at 2008.
So there we have it: Apple's Goals for 2nd half 2007:
3.5 million Cingular iPhone USA subscribers July-Sep
6.5 million Cingular iPhone USA subscribers Oct-Dec
Apple's Goals for 2008:
5 million per quarter GLOBAL sales of iPhone.
Figure out the most efficient and effective way to launch, differentiate models and support iPhones in the major target mobile phone markets globally.
This is NEW for Apple. This is what it really means that the first 30 years were the beginning.
Macs rock. iPods rock harder. But it's baby stuff compared to what the iPhone will mean for revenues, profits approaching 1 billion USD per quarter possibly in 2008, and........ who knows.....
But Apple has their work cut out for them in 2007-2008 with 1. iPhone growth and 2. Maintaining wide integration across the whole range of Apple Inc. products and services.
By the way everyone, my MacBook 2.0ghz 2gb RAM fracking RAWKS THE HOUSE. Except when cores are 60% (both) or more loaded, fan spins to 6200rpm and it's wind-tunnel city. Almost equal to the fan noise of a standard Dell/ HP desktop PC. 1 dead pixel and 2 "pushed pixel" white-ish spots. Murphy's law. But overall, for AUD$1500, good frickin' deal. I'm using frickin' alot. Well, still in MacWorld ReHab, so I'll stop talking about my MacBook for now. Here at Rehab they limit my sessions to wean me down to a reasonable daily RDF dosage including using a OMFG finally 10.4.8 snappy Mac. And WinxP2pro flies on a 10gb-fixed-size Parallels virtual disk (build 1920 Parallels Desktop Mac). Only thing is Rosetta needs a good chunk of the 2gb to run well, so can't run Adobe-Macromedia concurrently with Parallels. But I could run Adobe-Macromedia in Windoze Parallels. But like, eww... I feel "dirty" now whenever I fire up WinXP in the MacBook, particularly next to OSX (I no need do BootCamping). Windows Vista runs quite alright, actually, as well, in Parallels, but it's like a hooker - all tarted up for instant sex appeal but when you look closer, hmm....
But really, for Apple Inc. now, looking back at Macs and iPods, it's like the dinner rolls (small buns) that you munch on before the big-ass Peppered Steak main course of the iPhone.
It will take a bit of rethinking. Apple Inc. will transition in 2007-2008 into a "personal and connected digital experience" company, based on the strong fundamentals (and phenomenal flexibility to run on stuff from a G3PowerPC to a IntelOctoXeon to whatever-the-hell-iPhone-runs-on) of MacOSX.
Such a lame expression, huh, "personal+connected digital experience" -- but as we all know, the Apple experience is unique, attractive, and continues to gain ground.
It is just extremely important to keep in mind Apple is not about killing Microsoft, Nokia, Dell, or anything like that.
It is essentially expanding on the core vision (Steve Jobs, John Ives et al) while continually increasing quarterly profits.
Mainstream journalists, like they have for years, will try and pin Apple down as the "perennial underdog" but as a company and looking at the core vision and profits, well, Macs will be some sort of minority. But iPods are de facto mp3 players. Just keep in mind the iPhone in relation to all mobile phones in the world. It could be as big as the iPod. But let's start smooth, look how long it took (about 5 years?) for every kid in the Western world to have an iPod...
It'll be an interesting ride. Almost as interesting as figuring out what the frack to do with my life. Hey. Getting a 2nd-hand Core1Duo MacBook at a good price and with appropriate financing from myself + my parents + some government aid (bipolar disability) is a start...
Wasn't there a law passed recently that says that cell phone companies have to enable the sim chips (is that the right term) in phones to be used in competitor's networks? If that is so, the restriction with Cingular is based on the unique GSM network that Cingular has in the US.
Technically, there was no new law passed.
This was a bureaucratic decision taken by the Library of Congress acting as administrators of the existing copyright laws including the DMCA. Under these laws, the LoC has the authority to define certain temporary exemptions to the interpretation of copyright if petitions are put forward and found to have merit.
In this specific case, the new regulation says that people who independently crack the "DRM-like technology" used to lock a cell phone to a single service provider are not breaking any laws in doing so.
Effectively, Cell network providers are still free to lock their phones, and they're under no obligation to give instructions for unlocking. However, individuals who come across the knowledge to unlock the phones from some other source are free to do so without fear of legal punishment.
I hope that Apple has made an open system for random-access voicemail. Any carrier should be able to implement it, I've wanted it for years. With MMS, it's just a multimedia message sent to your phone.
Why have 3 different systems for a missed call?
1) You have missed a call from X
2) Message from messagebank, 1 message waiting
3) Call messagebank, listen, press callback if you want.
A single message would do nicely and Nokia/Motorola should be able to handle it relatively easily.
The voice mail function requires that the network it's being retreived from work with the feature. It's not strictly an Apple product, nor could it be.
No matter how one looks at it, Apple allowed Cingular to have victory by giving into their God-foresaken service contracts and SHACKLING th iPhone to Cingular - a total un-Apple way of doing things with Apple products. It's such a shame, such a shame, absolutely sad. Steve Jobs and Apple have joined forces with the dark side. I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw Cingular CEO, Stan Sigman, up on stage rather than seeing Leopard or new Macs, etc. Stan was so drenched in ecstesy he had to use flash cards on stage to make his speach. Stan Sigman is bragging that he forced Apple to give into his Lock-in demands for the iPhone. What will be next? Maybe the next Mac Pro will require a 2 year Cingular contract. YUCK! I just don't beleive it. What a sad day in Mac/Apple history. So sad
This is a bit of a hysterical post.
There is nothing new about this kind of deal. Apple does it many times.
In business, both sides negotiate to their best advantage. While Cingular isn't popular on tech sites, they still have the largest subscription numbers. Apple wanted a GSM phone. T-Mobile has half the numbers. That's not useful to Apple. The rest of the companies are useless.
It's simple math.
This is a bit of a hysterical post.
There is nothing new about this kind of deal. Apple does it many times.
In business, both sides negotiate to their best advantage. While Cingular isn't popular on tech sites, they still have the largest subscription numbers. Apple wanted a GSM phone. T-Mobile has half the numbers. That's not useful to Apple. The rest of the companies are useless.
It's simple math.
I don't like cell phone companies any more than the next guy, but it's business as usual, it's SOP in the industry.
Only if the basic rulez are changed at the federal level would we see substantive changes in the cell phone industry. And given the industry, the current FCC, the current administration, the lobbyist/PAC's, somehow I don't see that happening.
I don't like cell phone companies any more than the next guy, but it's business as usual, it's SOP in the industry.
Only if the basic rulez are changed at the federal level would we see substantive changes in the cell phone industry. And given the industry, the current FCC, the current administration, the lobbyist/PAC's, somehow I don't see that happening.
It would be nice if the carriers were forced to be more open. Aegis is always razzing me on that.
At some point it will happen. As more of these companies go international we will see it.
This administration will be gone in less than two years. We'll see what happens then. We have to lobby our officials. If they think we don't care (most don't), then they will not care.
Something about this whole thing seems familiar...
-Clive
No matter how one looks at it, Apple allowed Cingular to have victory by giving into their God-foresaken service contracts and SHACKLING th iPhone to Cingular - a total un-Apple way of doing things with Apple products. It's such a shame, such a shame, absolutely sad. Steve Jobs and Apple have joined forces with the dark side. I was almost sick to my stomach when I saw Cingular CEO, Stan Sigman, up on stage rather than seeing Leopard or new Macs, etc. Stan was so drenched in ecstesy he had to use flash cards on stage to make his speach. Stan Sigman is bragging that he forced Apple to give into his Lock-in demands for the iPhone. What will be next? Maybe the next Mac Pro will require a 2 year Cingular contract. YUCK! I just don't beleive it. What a sad day in Mac/Apple history. So sad
Think about it this way: Apple obviously isn't one of the first to market with a cellphone as they were with the personal computer. They don't have the luxury of creating and shaping the development of a market segment. Over the past 25 or so years, the cellphone market has developed into the type of market where you need to pair yourself with a service provider if you want to be successful.
Sure Apple could create an unlocked cellphone which isn't tied to any service provider and hope that the average customer will dig hard enough to find it, and then figure out how to get it working with a service provider, but that's a lot to hope for. Pairing with a service provider buys them a much higher profile, and also ease of use because the phone is set up to "just work". Which is what the average person who could care less about the technical possibilities of a completely open phone wants. They want to get their iPhone and be able to start calling, texting, emailing from the second they get it. And they wouldn't get that experience if the iPhone wasn't paired with a service provider.
For the people who do want to open up all the possibilities of the phone, I can guarantee that it will be hacked within a few months of it's release, and you'll be free to do what you like if you buy a hacked version of it (or have the technical knowhow to apply whatever firmware hacks exist).
I'm sure whatever "locks" Apple puts on the phone will be about as difficult to break as the DRM on iTunes music. They won't be putting too much effort into them since it's not really in their interest to do so (only in Cingular's interest). They'll likely put as much effort as is necessary to avoid a lawsuit over breach of contract with Cingular.
Is it a flat fee for all phones or do the more expensive phones carry a higher penalty?
Apple has the balls to show a version 1 product that blows everyone away and claims that it was all made possible by Apple's redesigning the partners business practices. Cingular is bound to be scrambling to change the impression that Apple was given the store as they say. Can you imagine the class action lawsuits when RIM et al. claim their demise was due to the carriers unwillingness to implement new features.
No claim was made of by '08 as I heard Jobs say by the end of calendar '08. I was seeking it specifically to figure if the claim was fiscal which would have given Apple 12-13 months or calendar giving them 18-19 months with 2 xmas seasons and global rollout. 10 million in 2 qtrs with Cingular is beyond even Apple but 10 million worldwide will be made to look easy. I predict they will have at least 2 models (maybe 4) and sell at least 6 million units in the qtr ending Dec '08.
If usage plans make this available for 20-40 per month with unlimited usage it really is a whole new internet. Is this digital lifestyle 4.0. I think maybe so. Xmas '09 3rd gen 3.x G iPhone 128 gig flash mem, 5 meg pix on rear with 1 meg pix on front for vid chat., full GPS capibility, unlocked OS X, voip for global calling, voice to text and text to voice. iDigital so what if they have have to give up the moniker iPhone. While it would be nice to have as it will help the dolts grok that it is a tool that they have some familiarity with it really hardly describes its potential.
I'm so looking forward to the future.
Raven