Hmm. My cable just decided to flake out on me at the moment. Ah well, hopefully it will come back on in time for some [English] Football on Sunday and then [American] Football on Monday morning (Australian EST).
We don't have a Reche Caldwell to drop 3 touchdowns so the Colts can win the game. They're so overrated it's not even funny.
The Colts beat the Chiefs because Herm Edwards/Trent Green are teh sux. They didn't score one TD against the Ravens, and the Ravens D is on par with the Bears'. And we all know what happened against the Patriots:
How can you take that record, with Peyton Manning's noted ability to choke to death in big games, against the Bears unflappable D and their total demolition of the NFL's best offence?
16 Hours 25 Minutes to Go. My cable is back up now so I should be able to catch the game. When will the Apple ad screen? Halftime or something like that? Down here I won't see the American ads, but I'll be following closely on the forums as I watch the game.
With this Supah-Bohwl thing, can someone post a commentary say every 15minutes or so when it's on Live so that I can know WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? ...So what happened to the 49ers and OaklandRaiders? How did they do this season.....??
IMPORTANT:
Superbowl commercials will be available online at the end of each quarter:
Click here to listen to John Dewan on 670 The Score
As I discussed last week, there's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. Last year, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks ( Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?).
The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
Category\t Winning Percentage\t Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt\t .550\t Colts
Rushing Yards\t .550\t Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards\t .550\t Colts
Points Scored\t .588\t Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt\t .600\t Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards\t .600\t Bears
Turnover Differential\t .625\t Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards\t.625\tBears
Point Differential\t .663\tBears
Regular Season Record\t .688\t Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game\t .700\t Bears
Points Allowed\t .713\t Bears
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.
The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first Super Bowl in 21 years.
I want to give credit to Jim Henzler from my days over at STATS, Inc for helping me develop the system. Jim, who also collaborated with Bill James on his book Win Shares, came up with the main elements of this system back in the early 90's.
I look like a real asshole now. I feel like one too. The Bears couldn't have played any worse. From the terrible playcalling to shitty Rex Grossman and the get-these-four-downs-over-with-so-we-can-punt offense, it was difficult to watch.
Comments
Colts - 3
Colts - 62
Bears - 3
I fixed your typo for you.
We don't have a Reche Caldwell to drop 3 touchdowns so the Colts can win the game. They're so overrated it's not even funny.
The Colts beat the Chiefs because Herm Edwards/Trent Green are teh sux. They didn't score one TD against the Ravens, and the Ravens D is on par with the Bears'. And we all know what happened against the Patriots:
How can you take that record, with Peyton Manning's noted ability to choke to death in big games, against the Bears unflappable D and their total demolition of the NFL's best offence?
You're all fucking crazy.
Edit: Oh, yeah.
"Fuck! I'm getting cut!"
IMPORTANT:
Superbowl commercials will be available online at the end of each quarter:
http://www.cbs.sportsline.com/nfl/postseason/superads
January 23, 2007
Click here to listen to John Dewan on 670 The Score
As I discussed last week, there's a system that I've been using for the past 16 years that has correctly predicted the Super Bowl winner 14 times. It involves 12 predictors that each successfully predict the Super Bowl winner roughly 55 to 70 percent of the time, but taken together they work even better. Last year, for the first time in those 16 years, we had to go to the tie-breaker when the categories were tied 6-6 between the Steelers and Seahawks ( Can you predict the Super Bowl winner?).
The twelve categories are broken into five defensive statistics, four offensive and three overall. The winning percentage for each of the categories is based on how often that category favored the eventual Super Bowl winner. The chart below shows all of the percentages.
Now let's look at Super Bowl XLI:
Category\t Winning Percentage\t Team with Advantage
Rushing Yards / Attempt\t .550\t Colts
Rushing Yards\t .550\t Bears
Opponent Net Passing Yards\t .550\t Colts
Points Scored\t .588\t Tie
Opponent Rushing Yards / Attempt\t .600\t Bears
Fewer Net Passing Yards\t .600\t Bears
Turnover Differential\t .625\t Bears
Opponent Rushing Yards\t.625\tBears
Point Differential\t .663\tBears
Regular Season Record\t .688\t Bears
Opponent Total Yards / Game\t .700\t Bears
Points Allowed\t .713\t Bears
The Bears take the last eight categories, which are the best predictors, all at 60% or better. Of those eight, five are defensive, which confirms the adage: Defense wins championships. Overall, the Bears take nine categories and the Colts only two, with one tie. There have been 18 occasions where the system favored one of the teams with nine or more categories. That team has won 15 times.
The system leans significantly towards the Bears winning their first Super Bowl in 21 years.
I want to give credit to Jim Henzler from my days over at STATS, Inc for helping me develop the system. Jim, who also collaborated with Bill James on his book Win Shares, came up with the main elements of this system back in the early 90's.
http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=117
Back to Stat Listing
Is it an OMG PEYTON MANNING thing?
I just can't put my finger on why *everyone* is picking against the Bears.
Is it an OMG PEYTON MANNING thing?
It's more of an "I live in Indiana" thing.
It's more of an "I live in Indiana" thing.
Most people that are picking against the Bears aren't from Indiana.
The superbowl. Words fail.
I look like a real asshole now. I feel like one too. The Bears couldn't have played any worse. From the terrible playcalling to shitty Rex Grossman and the get-these-four-downs-over-with-so-we-can-punt offense, it was difficult to watch.