NAND flash to play bigger role in future Mac and iPod models
Apple Inc. plans extensive use of NAND flash memory in future Mac and iPod models, which will include a new sub-notebook and widescreen video iPod, according to one Wall Street analyst.
Citing a recent analysis of the supply chain, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said the first product to bear the fruits of the ongoing development efforts in Cupertino will be a new NAND flash-based Apple sub-notebook.
"This is a new subnotebook form factor that will use NAND flash as primary storage," he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday morning. "Our sources indicate that Apple would like to introduce the product in [the second half of 2007] to further capitalize on its strong MacBook growth, but timing will be dependent on NAND vendors' ability to drive down pricing further, making it economically attractive for Apple."
At the same time, Wu confirmed ongoing industry speculation that Apple will inevitably shift its flagship video iPod players to NAND from hard disk drive (HDD) storage, but warned the transition was unlikely in the near-term.
"Our sources indicate that while Apple plans to migrate the rest of its iPod product line to NAND flash from HDDs (the current vPod is the only model remaining), fairly low price points and customer appetite for high storage capacities will likely prevent this from happening until late 2007-2008," he told clients. The analyst noted that despite the aggressive price reductions in NAND flash over the past few years, his analysis indicates that mobile HDD storage still has around a 7 to 8 times the price advantage of NAND, which is down slightly from 10 times a year ago.
"Today 1 GB of NAND flash costs around $5, meaning 32 GB costs $160, which compares to $22 for the same amount of HDD storage," he explained. "Through 2007, NAND flash in notebook PCs will likely be limited to the high-end/ultra-portable market."
In addition to schooling clients on the price effectiveness of NAND versus HDD, Wu said he has learned that a widescreen video iPod "won't likely ship until after iPhone ships in the June timeframe to not take away from iPhone's launch." In the meantime, he anticipates storage capacity increases to the current line of video players, which are presently at 30GB and 80GB, respectively.
The American Technology Research analyst maintained his Buy rating on shares of the consumer electronics maker with a price target of $115 per-share.
"We see several additional catalysts in the quarters ahead, including Mac OS X Leopard, new movie and carrier partners, lower cost cell phones, and further extension of its core technology franchise into new business areas," he wrote.
Citing a recent analysis of the supply chain, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said the first product to bear the fruits of the ongoing development efforts in Cupertino will be a new NAND flash-based Apple sub-notebook.
"This is a new subnotebook form factor that will use NAND flash as primary storage," he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday morning. "Our sources indicate that Apple would like to introduce the product in [the second half of 2007] to further capitalize on its strong MacBook growth, but timing will be dependent on NAND vendors' ability to drive down pricing further, making it economically attractive for Apple."
At the same time, Wu confirmed ongoing industry speculation that Apple will inevitably shift its flagship video iPod players to NAND from hard disk drive (HDD) storage, but warned the transition was unlikely in the near-term.
"Our sources indicate that while Apple plans to migrate the rest of its iPod product line to NAND flash from HDDs (the current vPod is the only model remaining), fairly low price points and customer appetite for high storage capacities will likely prevent this from happening until late 2007-2008," he told clients. The analyst noted that despite the aggressive price reductions in NAND flash over the past few years, his analysis indicates that mobile HDD storage still has around a 7 to 8 times the price advantage of NAND, which is down slightly from 10 times a year ago.
"Today 1 GB of NAND flash costs around $5, meaning 32 GB costs $160, which compares to $22 for the same amount of HDD storage," he explained. "Through 2007, NAND flash in notebook PCs will likely be limited to the high-end/ultra-portable market."
In addition to schooling clients on the price effectiveness of NAND versus HDD, Wu said he has learned that a widescreen video iPod "won't likely ship until after iPhone ships in the June timeframe to not take away from iPhone's launch." In the meantime, he anticipates storage capacity increases to the current line of video players, which are presently at 30GB and 80GB, respectively.
The American Technology Research analyst maintained his Buy rating on shares of the consumer electronics maker with a price target of $115 per-share.
"We see several additional catalysts in the quarters ahead, including Mac OS X Leopard, new movie and carrier partners, lower cost cell phones, and further extension of its core technology franchise into new business areas," he wrote.
Comments
"Today 1 GB of NAND flash costs around $5, meaning 32 GB costs $160, which compares to $22 for the same amount of HDD storage," he explained. "Through 2007, NAND flash in notebook PCs will likely be limited to the high-end/ultra-portable market."
And in a couple years HD's will STILL be less expensive than NAND flash at the same capacities.
Soo...$160 for 32GB is about half the pricing from Sept which falls in line with SanDisk's warning that NAND pricing suffered a 50% component cost reduction in the last few months (though I wonder if Wu is basing his $5/GB estimate on that same info).
With the new 2GB NAND starting production soon (Toshiba claims March, Samsung just says "spring") the older flash should become more widely available after Apple transistions to the new part and hopefully we'll see SSDs on the open market for around that $200-$300 price point.
We should see Apple's flash iPod lineup get a bump 3 months or so after Samsung gets the new chips into mass production if they follow the rough timeline from when the []b1GB[b]chip appeared (June 2006).
I can see a 32GB video iPod for possibly $299 if they can get 32GB of NAND less than that $160 price. The Toshiba 1.8" 30GB retails for $136 and iSuppli's estimate in October was $151 for the 30GB iPod.
So possible line up is 32GB SSD Video iPod for $299 and a 100GB HDD video iPod for $349. Then Nanos from 4GB to 16GB and a 2GB shuffle. When depends on if they want to maintain 50% gross margins and how much Samsung will discount the new NAND for them.
Vinea
Edit: Bolded typos fixed. Well, not typos, mental f*rts. The 4GB chip in the Nano is the 1GB NAND stacked in a 4 layer chip (2x2). They are 8Gb (gigabit) NANDs with new 16Gb NANDs coming out which will be 2GB NANDs in various packaging. Presumably up to 8GB in a single package.
Why put a single (for example) 32gb NAND drive into a computer when you can put 4 8gb NAND drives in and pool them with ZFS? It would be cheaper (i would think) but you still see "1" volume when you turn on the laptop. It's my understanding that ZFS is creeping into the Leopard builds and it would allow for taking multiple drives and pooling them in some sort of "dynamic striping" raid configuration or something. I dunno, just my 2 cents, but I could see it being a possibility, at least until NAND prices fall dramatically enough to compete with regular HDD.
I think it's a given, the only question is when, this year or a few years from now. Right now, I'm not convinced that solid state storage in place of 2.5" notebook drives has a worthwhile advantage other than mechanical durability, but you trade that for far fewer write cycles and much less capacity. Mechanical durability is more important for iPods, and the write cycles aren't as much of a limitation, but cost is.
Yeah. I'm not sure how it'll work for iPods, but I think the most practical use for NAND in a notebook (or subnotebook) would be to speed boot times and possibly to pre-cache some programs, but to still use a hard disk for the remaining data storage. That way, the write cycles aren't used up that much (giving a longer life), and the costs are kept low.
Definitely interested in a subnotebook...
How many GB's would that take?
I don't know much about the tech behind all of this, but here's what I thought of yesterday:
Why put a single (for example) 32gb NAND drive into a computer when you can put 4 8gb NAND drives in and pool them with ZFS? It would be cheaper (i would think) but you still see "1" volume when you turn on the laptop. It's my understanding that ZFS is creeping into the Leopard builds and it would allow for taking multiple drives and pooling them in some sort of "dynamic striping" raid configuration or something. I dunno, just my 2 cents, but I could see it being a possibility, at least until NAND prices fall dramatically enough to compete with regular HDD.
That's essentially what they do, although the "pooling" is done with a memory controller (hardware, not software). The largest NAND chip to date is only 4GB and it's not even in production yet.
I don't know much about the tech behind all of this, but here's what I thought of yesterday:
Why put a single (for example) 32gb NAND drive into a computer when you can put 4 8gb NAND drives in and pool them with ZFS? It would be cheaper (i would think) but you still see "1" volume when you turn on the laptop. It's my understanding that ZFS is creeping into the Leopard builds and it would allow for taking multiple drives and pooling them in some sort of "dynamic striping" raid configuration or something. I dunno, just my 2 cents, but I could see it being a possibility, at least until NAND prices fall dramatically enough to compete with regular HDD.
$5/GB is your bottom end price and using 4 volumes means 4 controllers increasing your cost if you use the same flash vs 1 controller and 8 chips.
Vinea
Wu said he has learned that a widescreen video iPod "won't likely ship until after iPhone ships in the June timeframe to not take away from iPhone's launch."
Only confirmation of what everyone inferred Jan. 9. The chance Apple would ship THE video iPod before the iPhone is/was infinitesimal.
and what's with this? "1GB = $5 so 32GB = $160" WRONG. That statement is only true if you want 32 independent 1GB NAND units! By that time, we're talking two times thicker than the Zune. If you want a single 32GB NAND unit, expect to pay around $1000.
And why the hell would apple want to make a Sub-Notebook over a tablet, especially with their "undercarriage optical bay" patent. It doesn't make sense to lift up the unit to put in a CD/DVD. A tablet is simple: you keep holding it in your hand, rotate your wrist, insert media with your other hand and unrotate your wrist.
Apple would not have spent all this time and research developing their multi-touch interface if they were going to banish it away to only the iPhone. It doesn't make sense in a laptop (who wants to reach out and touch their portable, or carry it around everywhere?). A table is MUCH easier to tote around, lightweight, no moving parts (hinges! YIKES!), flip it over, throw in a CD, etc.
Shaw Wu has overstayed his welcome as a Wall-Street "analyst." Guess what? I'm an analyst too because I think about the situation and the most logical progression for Apple to make given their technology. I can say right now that Apple's next portable is more likely to be a tablet than a "sub-notebook."
DISCLAIMER: For all you flamers who are eager to tell me that I don't know Apple's plans, I can only say that you're right. I don't. But niether does Shaw Wu. If anything, I know more about Apple than he does. Plus he has the reduced credibility factor of likely owning loads of Apple stock. I, on the other hand, don't own a single share. It's not in my interest to either trash talk or promote Apple Inc.
So to all you potential flamers, I don't want to hear it. Why don't you dish it at Shaw Wu instead?
-Clive
OMG, doesn't Shaw Wu ever shut the hell up?
and what's with this? "1GB = $5 so 32GB = $160" WRONG. That statement is only true if you want 32 independent 1GB NAND units! By that time, we're talking two times thicker than the Zune. If you want a single 32GB NAND unit, expect to pay around $1000.
SanDisk said $600 for their 32GB 1.8" SSD before saying "OMG the prices dropped 50% in the last qtr! Don't expect us to exceed guidance". Others says 2 times the cost of a 1.8" HDD by this spring (call it $300).
Given the Nano pricing, Samsung, if they so choose, could build $600 (retail) 32GB SSDs today but it appears most of their capability is going to the iPod and to OEMs. $600 is a mite too high for wide acceptance anyway. $300...well...now.
70% price cut in 2006. Toshiba estimates 60% price cuts in 2007. More likely since they just invested a huge chunk of cash to bring in new production capabilies for their higher density chips. They say they want to get to the "tipping point" where SSDs take significant share from HDD in the portable market which some analysts say is $120 for 64GB. If trends continue that's late 2008, early 2009...
Vinea
SanDisk said $600 for their 32GB 1.8" SSD before saying "OMG the prices dropped 50% in the last qtr! Don't expect us to exceed guidance". Others says 2 times the cost of a 1.8" HDD by this spring (call it $300).
Given the Nano pricing, Samsung, if they so choose, could build $600 (retail) 32GB SSDs today but it appears most of their capability is going to the iPod and to OEMs. $600 is a mite too high for wide acceptance anyway. $300...well...now.
70% price cut in 2006. Toshiba estimates 60% price cuts in 2007. More likely since they just invested a huge chunk of cash to bring in new production capabilies for their higher density chips. They say they want to get to the "tipping point" where SSDs take significant share from HDD in the portable market which some analysts say is $120 for 64GB. If trends continue that's late 2008, early 2009...
Vinea
Thanks for exact numbers. I agree that $600, even $300, is still too much to pay. I don't doubt, though, that in a few years (~2009) flash will be a more viable option. But Shaw Wu coming and saying it like he's a revolutionary is uncalled for. In the technology worl, that's like saying "I will breathe at some point today." It's a gigantic "DUH" that Flash will play a bigger role in years to come. This guy says it like he's the one who thought of it. I must have seen that idea on this website at least a year ago. Seriously, that must be all Shaw Wu does: peruse rumor sites and build obvious rumors based on forum posts. He's trying to tell us what we want to hear... and claiming he got it from the source. He doesn't have any more info than we do.
-Clive
since I work in Wall Street and it's that easy to write an article like that by just surfing web here and there, I should work as an analyst i guess.
What if I told you... you already qualify as an analyst?
I think it's a given, the only question is when, this year or a few years from now. Right now, I'm not convinced that solid state storage in place of 2.5" notebook drives has a worthwhile advantage other than mechanical durability...
What about battery life? Flash allegedly has an advantage in that.
.
Apple would not have spent all this time and research developing their multi-touch interface if they were going to banish it away to only the iPhone.
I agree, they'll probably put it on the iPod as well. But a tablet? Meh... sure, if they even bother to build one.
.