People who don't have an iPod, and don't want an iPhone will most likely buy a Nano or Shuffle. With 10.5 million iPod units sold last quarter, that would makes up for the majority of the NAND supply they're arranging for, especially if they continue with the move of higher capacity NAND based iPods and move to incorporate NAND into laptops.
IF they make 50% of the iPhones with 8 GB and 50% with 4 GB, and based projections in this thread, it's 105 mm 4GB NAND units in 2 quarters, that leaves the rest for pure iPods and laptops. With 10.5 mm iPods sold in a NON Holiday quarter, and all the laptop sales, that could be a huge need.
Anyone want to start a chip business?
Plus, no one has said yet how much an impact the iPhone will have on pure iPod sales. At 10.5 million units sold in a quarter, is no one even bothering to speculate because there are 3 or 4 new iPod models slated for this year?
Long Live Jobs! This innovation, and success, was never possible under Amelio.
The next iMacs, MacBooks & MBPs may use Robson caching, which is supposed to speed up access to often-read files. The next nanos may have another doubling of capacity. There's the iPhone, which I hope doubles the capacity in fairly short order.
I agree with you remarks about Robson, and doubling of Nanos and iPhone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM
There may be a low end iPod video with flash, while keeping the high end with a hard drive for huge mass storage. AppleTV may transition to flash in a year, the hard drive was probably cheaper for decent local storage at the moment.
I can't foresee this low-end iPod Video as the cost would be more than a HDD based one. There is also no need to do anything to the AppleTV except increase the storage of the HDD, and I don't see Apple doing that until it comes out with a 2G model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM
BTW: the usual convention for stating memory capacity is that a bare memory chip is rated in bits for storage. Solder it to a board and the board is rated in bytes. I don't think I've seen this done any other way, the few times I've seen it is usually an error made by someone that's not in that industry and don't know what they are talking about.
does anyone remember in the eighties and nineties how Apple bought boatloads of RAM in order to smooth out supply of memory to their machines...but often getting stuck holding onto depreciating RAM? (i remember paying for it!)
Perhaps, since they are the market leader with the iPod, they are not only pushing prices down, but also benefiting from that pricing for long in advance of other competitors. Apple perhaps is planning on staying ahead on costs and innovation...the other big wireless and phone manufacturers can't even begin to team up to compete with iPhone volume...they don't have the platform/software, and they haven't designed a phone with such large memory capacities. Apple is planning on bringing a scaled computer onto the phone. The other manufacturers cannot do that. While the NAND move would obviously have defensive benefits, the reality is that this fits nicely into an offensive strategy. It will also allow Apple to maintain it's $500-600 product pricing (pre-discounts, if even offered).
Likely, as most products in their stable, they will refresh to larger memory for the iPhone and iPods in a 6-9 month interval. When they refresh the iPhone, they will not only have ironed out much of the unexpected software issues of a new product line, but also have inserted a true 3G wireless feature, and perhaps even a CDMA worldphone variant.
eventually, the video iPod will likely see two versions...a pro version (with 100GB HDD, courtesy of Samsung), and standard with NAND. Nano would likely have decent video type storage capacity too.
in the end...this is classic steve-like strategy...all brass-knuckles. normally, we should hate a guy like this, but considering all the years of derision at the hands of Bill & PC's, it's fair turnabout. Plus, even if i hated steve, i still gotta like apple stuff. couldn't ever really say that about pc's or M$
I agree with you remarks about Robson, and doubling of Nanos and iPhone.
I can't foresee this low-end iPod Video as the cost would be more than a HDD based one. There is also no need to do anything to the AppleTV except increase the storage of the HDD, and I don't see Apple doing that until it comes out with a 2G model.
That would be me. Didn't know that until today.
Robson doesn't use NAND, as I recall? Pricing benefits likely won't scale. The only thing is lateral leverage?
PS: Apple has 12B liquid. They should buy on of these NAND manufacturing plants. Reduce cost to Apple products while making money from competitors.
Pardon...you are correct. Thanks for the clarification.
Buying a plant would be a bad idea...refabbing that plant once they move down in scale will be a hassle. It's easier to manipulate the manufacturers who have been scaling back in order to make profits. Besides, Apple's core business is not manufacturing memory.
Likely Apple just wants to play them to their advantage. Cause a shortage for the rest of the industry (higher component costs), while they sit pretty. I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Even if you figure half of all iPods have 4 GB and the other half have 2x 4GB (even though a fair number have HDs or smaller capacities), and the same for the iphone, and you estimate iPods as follow:
Q3 - 10 million iPods, 15 million 4GB chips
Q4 - 50 million iPods, 75 million 4GB chips
+ 10 million iPhones, 15 million 4GB chips
------------------------------------------------
105 million 4GB chips
Even if that's conservative and they do 2x that, we're still barely at the halfway point for this order.
To get to 400-500 million, wouldn't that have to be confirmation of HD iPods going away (8x + chips per iPod) and/or NAND integrated in Macs by year end if not much closer to the June time frame?
It may account for more devices that use nand like laptops and maybe other unknown devices.
It is also possible that the amount is 80 or 90 mil nand units more per year for 5 or so years which would be more inline with their use on the iPhone and iPod.
I think even a lot of technically knowledgeable people don't know. Most people don't handle bare memory chips so it's understandable.
On a related topic, many technically knowledgeable people don't know about the storage drive BASE-10 marketing scheme. I usually hear something along the lines of, "it's a result of formatting the drive." Though formatting does reduce the capacity, it's not the reason for the outstanding discrepancy.
I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Both Samsung and Toshiba have been investing in plants for the new 16Gb (gigabit) chips on the smaller process. Samsung has been sampling for a while but hasn't seem to have gone into mass production.
Toshiba claimed mass production this qtr earlier in the year but the last press release is mass production of 8GB (4 stack of the 16Gb chips) in July (with samples in April). They claim they will be sampling 16GB parts (8 x 16Gb) in June with mass production in Dec. These are all 56nm process.
The current Nanos and the current 32GB SSDs that Samsung has been selling to OEMs are using the older 8Gb chips (quad stacked for 4GB capacity) on the 70nm process. The new SanDisk SSD is also using the older 8Gb chips from Toshiba (at least appears that way from the chip density).
SanDisk had been whining earlier this year that NAND prices have been plummeting and they didn't expect to see it stop in 2007. Toshiba announced right after the iPhone announcement that they were investing a trillion yen into a soft market to try to get NAND prices down to the "tipping point" where widespread use of SSDs was possible.
Interesting that Samsung is worried about capacity. Apple must be very bullish or Samsung ran into a snag with their 56nm process.
I doubt they are asking for 4Gb parts when they are using 8Gb parts in the Nano and 16Gb parts are about here. I'm starting to think DigiTimes is full of it again.
In 2006 Samsung announced mass production of their 8Gb NAND on Jul 13...Apple followed with the Nano using those chips in September. I don't see why Apple wouldn't be able to update the Nanos with the 16Gb parts in the same short order. iPhone and FCC maybe/maybe not but Samsung has been sampling their 16Gb part a while and Toshiba is about to follow if they haven't already.
In 2006 Samsung announced mass production of their 8Gb NAND on Jul 13...Apple followed with the Nano using those chips in September. I don't see why Apple wouldn't be able to update the Nanos with the 16Gb parts in the same short order. iPhone and FCC maybe/maybe not but Samsung has been sampling their 16Gb part a while and Toshiba is about to follow if they haven't already.
Interesting stuff, Vinea. Would Apple really have to go through the same rigmarole if they only changed the capacity?
SanDisk had been whining earlier this year that NAND prices have been plummeting and they didn't expect to see it stop in 2007. Toshiba announced right after the iPhone announcement that they were investing a trillion yen into a soft market to try to get NAND prices down to the "tipping point" where widespread use of SSDs was possible.
That has confused me also. SanDisk complaining that prices are falling too fast, but then at the same time pushing SDD that are too expensive for most people to use.
But as I've said before my vote is for Apple to at least offer a 16GB and 8GB iPhone. Based on past deals Apple has been able to make for the iPod, it should not be a problem.
That has confused me also. SanDisk complaining that prices are falling too fast, but then at the same time pushing SDD that are too expensive for most people to use.
But as I've said before my vote is for Apple to at least offer a 16GB and 8GB iPhone. Based on past deals Apple has been able to make for the iPod, it should not be a problem.
The problem with the SSDs is that OEMs appear to be snarfing up all the units. SanDisk annouced a 2.5" 32GB SSD for $350 (in volume) at CeBIT.
Do you see any for sale on the open market? Nope, me either. Okay...the $350 is still very new but where's the $600 1.8" they announced earlier? I'm guessing still low yeilds and the bulk of what's made is sitting in UMPCs and ultrathins.
In short: "People phreakin' are dying to buy an iPhone.... I mean seriously."
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic
But the ANALysts think the opposite...
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
I predict that Apple will sell 1M iPhones in just under 40 days. I'm taking bets.
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
Pardon...you are correct. Thanks for the clarification.
Buying a plant would be a bad idea...refabbing that plant once they move down in scale will be a hassle. It's easier to manipulate the manufacturers who have been scaling back in order to make profits. Besides, Apple's core business is not manufacturing memory.
Likely Apple just wants to play them to their advantage. Cause a shortage for the rest of the industry (higher component costs), while they sit pretty. I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Agreed. 1. Not Apple core business. 2. Apple's big cash hoard is a nice juicy carrot dangling in front of all the manufacturers. 3. Buying a plant or two would tie up capital in manufacturing. Too much of a deviation IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by whysoblue
...Anyone want to start a chip business?...
Heh. ...Mmm... Commodity manufacturing. Not for the faint-of-heart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by whysoblue
Long Live Jobs! This innovation, and success, was never possible under Amelio.
Word. Without painting Jobs as a Messiah (well, not too obviously anyway), the world would be a very different place without him. He has indeed, "[made] a ding in the Universe".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland
I'm glad to hear you like them. The "Coming soon.." part is PR8 Charade, I think I bought that on dafont. And the other font is LHFSplash Regular, I got that one on My Fonts.
You know, those are the best fun/party fonts I have seen in a long, long time. Since MarkerFelt, really...... Have suffered too long under the bollocks fonts that ship with Microsoft Office for Win/Mac...... Though Trebuchet is really an awesome, awesome screen font. When kerned properly (that is, spacing between the characters, Windows (particularly Word for Windows) always makes them a bit too widely spaced compared to Mac that's why sometimes Mac fonts "look nicer"..... IMHO. (I've been saying that a lot lately... but meh, whatevs.)
I'm glad to hear you like them. The "Coming soon.." part is PR8 Charade, I think I bought that on dafont. And the other font is LHFSplash Regular, I got that one on My Fonts.
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
i will wait to replace my 3yr old v551 for the iphone...i read on the inernet that the sale of smart phones has decreased, and softened because people are putting the purchase off till iphone, also at&t is marketing this to enerprise. i think SJ has some major tricks up his sleeve, and as i've posted in other threads, i think the 4 and 8 may be more by june or get an early christmas, back to school gift to iphone buyers. i think june will be a drop in the bucket and the real growth will start out that gate.....quickly
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
When I crunch the numbers I just don't see this happening. I see a max of 7M units through Q1 2008, with a more likely number of around 5.5M, assuming there are no constraints or excessively poor reviews of cetain aspects of the iPhone or Cingular's unique iPhone services.
I've assumed that the EU market will open up no earlier than 3 months after the US launch, October 1st, and assumed that the EU market will include a new phone with HSDPA.
Comments
IF they make 50% of the iPhones with 8 GB and 50% with 4 GB, and based projections in this thread, it's 105 mm 4GB NAND units in 2 quarters, that leaves the rest for pure iPods and laptops. With 10.5 mm iPods sold in a NON Holiday quarter, and all the laptop sales, that could be a huge need.
Anyone want to start a chip business?
Plus, no one has said yet how much an impact the iPhone will have on pure iPod sales. At 10.5 million units sold in a quarter, is no one even bothering to speculate because there are 3 or 4 new iPod models slated for this year?
Long Live Jobs! This innovation, and success, was never possible under Amelio.
The next iMacs, MacBooks & MBPs may use Robson caching, which is supposed to speed up access to often-read files. The next nanos may have another doubling of capacity. There's the iPhone, which I hope doubles the capacity in fairly short order.
I agree with you remarks about Robson, and doubling of Nanos and iPhone.
There may be a low end iPod video with flash, while keeping the high end with a hard drive for huge mass storage. AppleTV may transition to flash in a year, the hard drive was probably cheaper for decent local storage at the moment.
I can't foresee this low-end iPod Video as the cost would be more than a HDD based one. There is also no need to do anything to the AppleTV except increase the storage of the HDD, and I don't see Apple doing that until it comes out with a 2G model.
BTW: the usual convention for stating memory capacity is that a bare memory chip is rated in bits for storage. Solder it to a board and the board is rated in bytes. I don't think I've seen this done any other way, the few times I've seen it is usually an error made by someone that's not in that industry and don't know what they are talking about.
That would be me. Didn't know that until today.
Perhaps, since they are the market leader with the iPod, they are not only pushing prices down, but also benefiting from that pricing for long in advance of other competitors. Apple perhaps is planning on staying ahead on costs and innovation...the other big wireless and phone manufacturers can't even begin to team up to compete with iPhone volume...they don't have the platform/software, and they haven't designed a phone with such large memory capacities. Apple is planning on bringing a scaled computer onto the phone. The other manufacturers cannot do that. While the NAND move would obviously have defensive benefits, the reality is that this fits nicely into an offensive strategy. It will also allow Apple to maintain it's $500-600 product pricing (pre-discounts, if even offered).
Likely, as most products in their stable, they will refresh to larger memory for the iPhone and iPods in a 6-9 month interval. When they refresh the iPhone, they will not only have ironed out much of the unexpected software issues of a new product line, but also have inserted a true 3G wireless feature, and perhaps even a CDMA worldphone variant.
eventually, the video iPod will likely see two versions...a pro version (with 100GB HDD, courtesy of Samsung), and standard with NAND. Nano would likely have decent video type storage capacity too.
in the end...this is classic steve-like strategy...all brass-knuckles. normally, we should hate a guy like this, but considering all the years of derision at the hands of Bill & PC's, it's fair turnabout. Plus, even if i hated steve, i still gotta like apple stuff. couldn't ever really say that about pc's or M$
I agree with you remarks about Robson, and doubling of Nanos and iPhone.
I can't foresee this low-end iPod Video as the cost would be more than a HDD based one. There is also no need to do anything to the AppleTV except increase the storage of the HDD, and I don't see Apple doing that until it comes out with a 2G model.
That would be me. Didn't know that until today.
Robson doesn't use NAND, as I recall? Pricing benefits likely won't scale. The only thing is lateral leverage?
Robson doesn't use NAND, as I recall? Pricing benefits likely won't scale. The only thing is lateral leverage?
Au contraire mon fraire: "Robson flash memory uses NAND flash memory to reduce the time it takes for a computer to power up, to access programs, and to write data to the hard drive."
PS: Apple has 12B liquid. They should buy on of these NAND manufacturing plants. Reduce cost to Apple products while making money from competitors.
Au contraire mon fraire: "Robson flash memory uses NAND flash memory to reduce the time it takes for a computer to power up, to access programs, and to write data to the hard drive."
PS: Apple has 12B liquid. They should buy on of these NAND manufacturing plants. Reduce cost to Apple products while making money from competitors.
Pardon...you are correct. Thanks for the clarification.
Buying a plant would be a bad idea...refabbing that plant once they move down in scale will be a hassle. It's easier to manipulate the manufacturers who have been scaling back in order to make profits. Besides, Apple's core business is not manufacturing memory.
This article helped put some circumstances in perspective: http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...e-apples-fault
Likely Apple just wants to play them to their advantage. Cause a shortage for the rest of the industry (higher component costs), while they sit pretty. I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Even if you figure half of all iPods have 4 GB and the other half have 2x 4GB (even though a fair number have HDs or smaller capacities), and the same for the iphone, and you estimate iPods as follow:
Q3 - 10 million iPods, 15 million 4GB chips
Q4 - 50 million iPods, 75 million 4GB chips
+ 10 million iPhones, 15 million 4GB chips
------------------------------------------------
105 million 4GB chips
Even if that's conservative and they do 2x that, we're still barely at the halfway point for this order.
To get to 400-500 million, wouldn't that have to be confirmation of HD iPods going away (8x + chips per iPod) and/or NAND integrated in Macs by year end if not much closer to the June time frame?
It may account for more devices that use nand like laptops and maybe other unknown devices.
It is also possible that the amount is 80 or 90 mil nand units more per year for 5 or so years which would be more inline with their use on the iPhone and iPod.
That would be me. Didn't know that until today.
I think even a lot of technically knowledgeable people don't know. Most people don't handle bare memory chips so it's understandable.
I think even a lot of technically knowledgeable people don't know. Most people don't handle bare memory chips so it's understandable.
On a related topic, many technically knowledgeable people don't know about the storage drive BASE-10 marketing scheme. I usually hear something along the lines of, "it's a result of formatting the drive." Though formatting does reduce the capacity, it's not the reason for the outstanding discrepancy.
I think even a lot of technically knowledgeable people don't know. Most people don't handle bare memory chips so it's understandable.
Ooops, I used to know that, but getting too old to remember, lol.
I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Both Samsung and Toshiba have been investing in plants for the new 16Gb (gigabit) chips on the smaller process. Samsung has been sampling for a while but hasn't seem to have gone into mass production.
Toshiba claimed mass production this qtr earlier in the year but the last press release is mass production of 8GB (4 stack of the 16Gb chips) in July (with samples in April). They claim they will be sampling 16GB parts (8 x 16Gb) in June with mass production in Dec. These are all 56nm process.
The current Nanos and the current 32GB SSDs that Samsung has been selling to OEMs are using the older 8Gb chips (quad stacked for 4GB capacity) on the 70nm process. The new SanDisk SSD is also using the older 8Gb chips from Toshiba (at least appears that way from the chip density).
SanDisk had been whining earlier this year that NAND prices have been plummeting and they didn't expect to see it stop in 2007. Toshiba announced right after the iPhone announcement that they were investing a trillion yen into a soft market to try to get NAND prices down to the "tipping point" where widespread use of SSDs was possible.
Interesting that Samsung is worried about capacity. Apple must be very bullish or Samsung ran into a snag with their 56nm process.
I doubt they are asking for 4Gb parts when they are using 8Gb parts in the Nano and 16Gb parts are about here. I'm starting to think DigiTimes is full of it again.
In 2006 Samsung announced mass production of their 8Gb NAND on Jul 13...Apple followed with the Nano using those chips in September. I don't see why Apple wouldn't be able to update the Nanos with the 16Gb parts in the same short order. iPhone and FCC maybe/maybe not but Samsung has been sampling their 16Gb part a while and Toshiba is about to follow if they haven't already.
Vinea
...
In 2006 Samsung announced mass production of their 8Gb NAND on Jul 13...Apple followed with the Nano using those chips in September. I don't see why Apple wouldn't be able to update the Nanos with the 16Gb parts in the same short order. iPhone and FCC maybe/maybe not but Samsung has been sampling their 16Gb part a while and Toshiba is about to follow if they haven't already.
Interesting stuff, Vinea. Would Apple really have to go through the same rigmarole if they only changed the capacity?
Interesting stuff, Vinea. Would Apple really have to go through the same rigmarole if they only changed the capacity?
Depends on what Samsung did to the on chip controllers. The NANDs are a lot easier to use today than before.
Vinea
SanDisk had been whining earlier this year that NAND prices have been plummeting and they didn't expect to see it stop in 2007. Toshiba announced right after the iPhone announcement that they were investing a trillion yen into a soft market to try to get NAND prices down to the "tipping point" where widespread use of SSDs was possible.
That has confused me also. SanDisk complaining that prices are falling too fast, but then at the same time pushing SDD that are too expensive for most people to use.
But as I've said before my vote is for Apple to at least offer a 16GB and 8GB iPhone. Based on past deals Apple has been able to make for the iPod, it should not be a problem.
That has confused me also. SanDisk complaining that prices are falling too fast, but then at the same time pushing SDD that are too expensive for most people to use.
But as I've said before my vote is for Apple to at least offer a 16GB and 8GB iPhone. Based on past deals Apple has been able to make for the iPod, it should not be a problem.
The problem with the SSDs is that OEMs appear to be snarfing up all the units. SanDisk annouced a 2.5" 32GB SSD for $350 (in volume) at CeBIT.
Do you see any for sale on the open market? Nope, me either. Okay...the $350 is still very new but where's the $600 1.8" they announced earlier? I'm guessing still low yeilds and the bulk of what's made is sitting in UMPCs and ultrathins.
Vinea
In short: "People phreakin' are dying to buy an iPhone.... I mean seriously."
But the ANALysts think the opposite...
I predict that Apple will sell 1M iPhones in just under 40 days. I'm taking bets.
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
Pardon...you are correct. Thanks for the clarification.
Buying a plant would be a bad idea...refabbing that plant once they move down in scale will be a hassle. It's easier to manipulate the manufacturers who have been scaling back in order to make profits. Besides, Apple's core business is not manufacturing memory.
This article helped put some circumstances in perspective: http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...e-apples-fault
Likely Apple just wants to play them to their advantage. Cause a shortage for the rest of the industry (higher component costs), while they sit pretty. I would guess they haven't been building plants recently, and if they started now, it wouldn't come online until well into the shortage later this year in 2007.
Agreed. 1. Not Apple core business. 2. Apple's big cash hoard is a nice juicy carrot dangling in front of all the manufacturers. 3. Buying a plant or two would tie up capital in manufacturing. Too much of a deviation IMO.
...Anyone want to start a chip business?...
Heh.
Long Live Jobs! This innovation, and success, was never possible under Amelio.
Word. Without painting Jobs as a Messiah (well, not too obviously anyway), the world would be a very different place without him. He has indeed, "[made] a ding in the Universe".
I'm glad to hear you like them. The "Coming soon.." part is PR8 Charade, I think I bought that on dafont. And the other font is LHFSplash Regular, I got that one on My Fonts.
You know, those are the best fun/party fonts I have seen in a long, long time. Since MarkerFelt, really...... Have suffered too long under the bollocks fonts that ship with Microsoft Office for Win/Mac...... Though Trebuchet is really an awesome, awesome screen font. When kerned properly (that is, spacing between the characters, Windows (particularly Word for Windows) always makes them a bit too widely spaced compared to Mac that's why sometimes Mac fonts "look nicer"..... IMHO. (I've been saying that a lot lately... but meh, whatevs.)
I'm glad to hear you like them. The "Coming soon.." part is PR8 Charade, I think I bought that on dafont. And the other font is LHFSplash Regular, I got that one on My Fonts.
Thanks a lot.
(I LOVE fonts)
(and apparently, smileys)
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
i will wait to replace my 3yr old v551 for the iphone...i read on the inernet that the sale of smart phones has decreased, and softened because people are putting the purchase off till iphone, also at&t is marketing this to enerprise. i think SJ has some major tricks up his sleeve, and as i've posted in other threads, i think the 4 and 8 may be more by june or get an early christmas, back to school gift to iphone buyers. i think june will be a drop in the bucket and the real growth will start out that gate.....quickly
I'm on 10 million iPhones sold and shipped by 31st December 2007. Can you believe HOW MANY FRICKIN PEOPLE AROUND THE WORLD want this iPhone??? And those who want it for Christmas/Holidays??????!!
When I crunch the numbers I just don't see this happening. I see a max of 7M units through Q1 2008, with a more likely number of around 5.5M, assuming there are no constraints or excessively poor reviews of cetain aspects of the iPhone or Cingular's unique iPhone services.
I've assumed that the EU market will open up no earlier than 3 months after the US launch, October 1st, and assumed that the EU market will include a new phone with HSDPA.