I partly agree although the worldwide smartphone market is very, very different outside the USA. Over two thirds of the world market for smartphones is dominated by Symbian based phones which aren't very popular at all in the USA. So the World's perception of a smartphone is a lot easier to use and less geeky than the USA's perception of a smartphone.
The Nokia N95 is doing extremely well here in Europe just now and it's as smart a phone as they come and it's not sold to just geeks and businesses. It's a bit of a brick though, even by Nokia standards.
Agreed, I was indeed looking at the US market and not the world market but even with Symbian having a big following in the rest of the world its still pretty clear to me that Apple has a real chance of growing and changing the smart-phone market as a whole.
Quote:
The USA is a tiny market though. If they're going to hit 45m then they have to get it out to Europe where the phone market is richer and more developed.
Totally agree
Quote:
But then most people seem to buy phones based on how the hardware looks not the software - case in point being any Motorola phone - funky looks, shite software.
This is where Apple will truly out class (many) of current smart-phone mfgs... Apple is famous for its HW designs... Mix that with 'not-shite' software and the rest of the mfgs certainly have something to worry about.
Wow, that's just ridiculous. If Apple ever does move 45 million units in one year, it'll be because the iPhone totally cannibalizes sales of the iPod, which won't happen.
These "analysts" and "researchers" need to get their heads on straight. They're buying into the hype just like the media is, when they should be the ones who are able to see through the hype.
I have to wonder if one big reason that the smartphone/PDA phone has not been a big growth market in the USA is because of the cost of the plans.
Right now, it's mostly business that uses them.
Not too many individuals are willing to shell out $100 a month for one phone.
Well, you could always sign up for the Sprint SERO plan. I picked up my Motorola Q for $75, and I'm paying $30 a month for 500 minutes, unlimited text messaging, unlimited data, and free nights and weekends starting at 7. By far and away the best plan from any carrier, and having 3G data downloads is sooo nice.
Let's deconstruct his price forecast. For example, if the original "estimate" for 2009 was 15 million phones, but Apple sold 45 million at $400 each, that would be $40 per phone in net income (assuming Apple's current net income margin of about 10%), for 30 million "extra" phones sold -- i.e., $1200 million extra in aggregate net income. This is roughly $1.40 per share in additional EPS (Apple has about 865 million shares outstanding). At a P/E of, say 25 (the forward P/E now is a high 29+, so I am being a bit more conservative), that is worth an incremental $35 in price per share, leading to his share price forecast of $160 (125 + 35).
I think too much hype and expectation might be starting to get built into the share price with fundamentals -- such as sales of 45 million iPhones -- that are way beyond any reasonable reach for Apple (for instance, even if there was demand for 45 million phones in 2009, can Apple produce and distribute that many!?). Also, if Apple is selling that many, the price will have to be lower, implying lower margins and net income, implying lower share price gains.
The problem will be, if Apple comes in with say, "only" 25 million sold in 2009 (which, given original forecasts, would still be HUGE), or, say, sells 45 million phones at $250 per phone, its shares would sink like a stone.
We should be very afraid of forecasts like these.....
Well, you could always sign up for the Sprint SERO plan. I picked up my Motorola Q for $75, and I'm paying $30 a month for 500 minutes, unlimited text messaging, unlimited data, and free nights and weekends starting at 7. By far and away the best plan from any carrier, and having 3G data downloads is sooo nice.
Wow. That's a great deal.
How's your service?
I consistently see Sprint vying for the bottom of the lists when it comes to customer satisfaction.
Not trying to be a downer here, but I have to say that 45 million units a year by 2009 seems overly optimistic.
Not so sure about that. By 2009 Apple will have iPhone and iPhone nano out, and both items will be cheap in comparison to these launch prices, not to mention storage will be dramatically larger by then, and battery life will also improve. Imagine having a 32GB+ flash iPhone with 6-8 hours of constant use battery life, at a $399 price tag, they'd fly off the shelves.
Not so sure about that. By 2009 Apple will have iPhone and iPhone nano out, and both items will be cheap in comparison to these launch prices, not to mention storage will be dramatically larger by then, and battery life will also improve. Imagine having a 32GB+ flash iPhone with 6-8 hours of constant use battery life, at a $399 price tag, they'd fly off the shelves.
That's not going to happen.
There's no great change in battery technology happening in the next year so battery density isn't going to get any better than Lithium Polymer in 2008/09.
The ARM processor already is pretty efficient although until we see an iPhone taken apart we don't know if they've a single SOC or the more traditional two chip design with a traditional CPU and a secondary radio stack.
32GB of Flash is going to eat more power still than 4/8GB unless there's a serious process change.
And Apple NEVER reduce prices on their products, they upgrade the technology/features to fit the price. Where the price does come down, it's because they've ditched the accessories that used to come free (firewire cables, chargers, remotes etc in the iPod for example). Usually you find adding the accessories back makes it more expensive again.
They may introduce cheaper models but that may not be possible with the iPhone without ditching the multitouch screen which is the limiting factor on size. You can't make it much smaller if you've got to operate it with fat fingers. Cue iPhone Shuffle joke...
The price will change of course, but only because of phone company subsidies getting higher.
Not trying to be a downer here, but I have to say that 45 million units a year by 2009 seems overly optimistic. Yeah, the market is huge, but the iPhone's segment of it isn't, so much. They'd likely have to be very aggressive on price to hit those numbers, and that's not Apple's game usually.
Agreed. Last year, with 40,000 distribution points, Apple sold 46 million iPods including a buttload of nanos ($149-249) and shuffles ($79). Even with a supposedly cheaper iPhone, in a growing cellphone market, it would be totally amazing. 20 million units in 2009, I could sorta believe that, but first Apple gotta reach the "10 million units in 2008" target.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmjoe
Does anyone follow this PiperJaffray's track record? Seems like whenever I see one of their stories on this site, they're either predicting the blatantly obvious or the clearly impossible, never anywhere in between.
Munster also said that Apple could sell nine million Macs in calendar 2007. Apple is on track to sell seven point something million, a 25-30 percent increase compared to calendar 2006.
Lets face it, the phones that had previously made up 'the smart-phone market' were the precise reason why the market was what it was... That is to say, the [smartphone] market was TINY with a capital T mostly due to the complexities (real or perceived) of your average smart-phone.
That's true, but it isn't just that. It's also
1) Price. Many phones are practically given away for free with a contract these days, smartphones usually can't hit those kind of pricepoints.
2) Functionalityoverkill. As geeks, its hard for us to imagine that there's people who just want to make calls and perhaps text once in awhile, but that describes a lot of people between the coasts and many over the age of 40 (not all of course, so save the "I'm 71 yrs old and a multimedia gangsta!" posts ).
Tragic as it is, much of the whizzy wonderment of the iPhone is lost on a lot of people, when you step back and consider the market as a whole, not just users who are like us.
This is not to say that the iPhone won't expand the smartphone market somewhat- I think it will, simply due to its 'game-changer' aura and marketing, and extreme ease-of-use.
But by the same token, some of the reasons why the smartphone segment of the market is small are pervasive, and not likely to go away anytime soon.
1) Price. Many phones are practically given away for free with a contract these days, smartphones usually can't hit those kind of pricepoints.
2) Functionalityoverkill. As geeks, its hard for us to imagine that there's people who just want to make calls and perhaps text once in awhile, but that describes a lot of people between the coasts and many over the age of 40 (not all of course, so save the "I'm 71 yrs old and a multimedia gangsta!" posts ).
Tragic as it is, much of the whizzy wonderment of the iPhone is lost on a lot of people, when you step back and consider the market as a whole, not just users who are like us.
This is not to say that the iPhone won't expand the smartphone market somewhat- I think it will, simply due to its 'game-changer' aura and marketing, and extreme ease-of-use.
But by the same token, some of the reasons why the smartphone segment of the market is small are pervasive, and not likely to go away anytime soon.
.
3), they're typically much larger than a normal cell phone.
I have a very Microsoft brainwashed MCSE friend. He's had his Microsoft certs since NT 3.51*. He's never used a Mac. He will probably never own one until more games are made Mac-compatible as he's PC gamer.
He believes that Bill Gates owns a majority stake in Apple and that Microsoft "bailed out" Apple with a measly $150M investment to keep MS from becoming a monopoly**.
He has no knowledge of how OS X works or how an OS with 3% worldwide markshare could actually be better than an OS with 90% marketshare. He saw a 24" iMac today at CompUSA and asked if that was an AppleTV. I'm serious!
He has no personal cellphone and has never owned a smartphone or an iPod.
Do you have an idea of the kind of person I'm talking about?
He is getting an iPhone when it comes out!
First persnal cell phone, first iPod, first smartphone, first Apple product. How many of you know people who otherwise shy away from Apple that are getting an iPhone?
* That was my fault, I was an MCSE back in the day and got him into it.
** No need mention the real history, I'm well versed in it.
Comments
Hold the phone... when and where was it revealed that AT&Ts 'multi-year deal' was in fact a 'five year deal'?
Dave
That's what I keep wondering. Too many unsubstantiated rumors. Last I heard it was 2 years.
I partly agree although the worldwide smartphone market is very, very different outside the USA. Over two thirds of the world market for smartphones is dominated by Symbian based phones which aren't very popular at all in the USA. So the World's perception of a smartphone is a lot easier to use and less geeky than the USA's perception of a smartphone.
The Nokia N95 is doing extremely well here in Europe just now and it's as smart a phone as they come and it's not sold to just geeks and businesses. It's a bit of a brick though, even by Nokia standards.
Agreed, I was indeed looking at the US market and not the world market but even with Symbian having a big following in the rest of the world its still pretty clear to me that Apple has a real chance of growing and changing the smart-phone market as a whole.
The USA is a tiny market though. If they're going to hit 45m then they have to get it out to Europe where the phone market is richer and more developed.
Totally agree
But then most people seem to buy phones based on how the hardware looks not the software - case in point being any Motorola phone - funky looks, shite software.
This is where Apple will truly out class (many) of current smart-phone mfgs... Apple is famous for its HW designs... Mix that with 'not-shite' software
Dave
That's what I keep wondering. Too many unsubstantiated rumors. Last I heard it was 2 years.
That's settles it!
From this point forward any rumor posted to these forums must be stantiated!
Dave
Right now, it's mostly business that uses them.
Not too many individuals are willing to shell out $100 a month for one phone.
These "analysts" and "researchers" need to get their heads on straight. They're buying into the hype just like the media is, when they should be the ones who are able to see through the hype.
I have to wonder if one big reason that the smartphone/PDA phone has not been a big growth market in the USA is because of the cost of the plans.
Right now, it's mostly business that uses them.
Not too many individuals are willing to shell out $100 a month for one phone.
Well, you could always sign up for the Sprint SERO plan. I picked up my Motorola Q for $75, and I'm paying $30 a month for 500 minutes, unlimited text messaging, unlimited data, and free nights and weekends starting at 7. By far and away the best plan from any carrier, and having 3G data downloads is sooo nice.
I think too much hype and expectation might be starting to get built into the share price with fundamentals -- such as sales of 45 million iPhones -- that are way beyond any reasonable reach for Apple (for instance, even if there was demand for 45 million phones in 2009, can Apple produce and distribute that many!?). Also, if Apple is selling that many, the price will have to be lower, implying lower margins and net income, implying lower share price gains.
The problem will be, if Apple comes in with say, "only" 25 million sold in 2009 (which, given original forecasts, would still be HUGE), or, say, sells 45 million phones at $250 per phone, its shares would sink like a stone.
We should be very afraid of forecasts like these.....
Well, you could always sign up for the Sprint SERO plan. I picked up my Motorola Q for $75, and I'm paying $30 a month for 500 minutes, unlimited text messaging, unlimited data, and free nights and weekends starting at 7. By far and away the best plan from any carrier, and having 3G data downloads is sooo nice.
Wow. That's a great deal.
How's your service?
I consistently see Sprint vying for the bottom of the lists when it comes to customer satisfaction.
Wow. That's a great deal.
How's your service?
I consistently see Sprint vying for the bottom of the lists when it comes to customer satisfaction.
Personally, I dumped Sprint for T-Mobile and never looked back. Sprint's customer service was atrocious.
That's settles it!
From this point forward any rumor posted to these forums must be stantiated!
Dave
Maybe we could enforce a group rating system for the veracity of rumors á la Digg...
Not trying to be a downer here, but I have to say that 45 million units a year by 2009 seems overly optimistic.
Not so sure about that. By 2009 Apple will have iPhone and iPhone nano out, and both items will be cheap in comparison to these launch prices, not to mention storage will be dramatically larger by then, and battery life will also improve. Imagine having a 32GB+ flash iPhone with 6-8 hours of constant use battery life, at a $399 price tag, they'd fly off the shelves.
Wow. That's a great deal.
How's your service?
I consistently see Sprint vying for the bottom of the lists when it comes to customer satisfaction.
I don't bother calling their regular customer service. I speak only to their retentions department.
Not so sure about that. By 2009 Apple will have iPhone and iPhone nano out, and both items will be cheap in comparison to these launch prices, not to mention storage will be dramatically larger by then, and battery life will also improve. Imagine having a 32GB+ flash iPhone with 6-8 hours of constant use battery life, at a $399 price tag, they'd fly off the shelves.
That's not going to happen.
There's no great change in battery technology happening in the next year so battery density isn't going to get any better than Lithium Polymer in 2008/09.
The ARM processor already is pretty efficient although until we see an iPhone taken apart we don't know if they've a single SOC or the more traditional two chip design with a traditional CPU and a secondary radio stack.
32GB of Flash is going to eat more power still than 4/8GB unless there's a serious process change.
And Apple NEVER reduce prices on their products, they upgrade the technology/features to fit the price. Where the price does come down, it's because they've ditched the accessories that used to come free (firewire cables, chargers, remotes etc in the iPod for example). Usually you find adding the accessories back makes it more expensive again.
They may introduce cheaper models but that may not be possible with the iPhone without ditching the multitouch screen which is the limiting factor on size. You can't make it much smaller if you've got to operate it with fat fingers. Cue iPhone Shuffle joke...
The price will change of course, but only because of phone company subsidies getting higher.
Not trying to be a downer here, but I have to say that 45 million units a year by 2009 seems overly optimistic. Yeah, the market is huge, but the iPhone's segment of it isn't, so much. They'd likely have to be very aggressive on price to hit those numbers, and that's not Apple's game usually.
Agreed. Last year, with 40,000 distribution points, Apple sold 46 million iPods including a buttload of nanos ($149-249) and shuffles ($79). Even with a supposedly cheaper iPhone, in a growing cellphone market, it would be totally amazing. 20 million units in 2009, I could sorta believe that, but first Apple gotta reach the "10 million units in 2008" target.
Does anyone follow this PiperJaffray's track record? Seems like whenever I see one of their stories on this site, they're either predicting the blatantly obvious or the clearly impossible, never anywhere in between.
Munster also said that Apple could sell nine million Macs in calendar 2007. Apple is on track to sell seven point something million, a 25-30 percent increase compared to calendar 2006.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/dis...ory_id=9302662
We have a winner...
Lets face it, the phones that had previously made up 'the smart-phone market' were the precise reason why the market was what it was... That is to say, the [smartphone] market was TINY with a capital T mostly due to the complexities (real or perceived) of your average smart-phone.
That's true, but it isn't just that. It's also
1) Price. Many phones are practically given away for free with a contract these days, smartphones usually can't hit those kind of pricepoints.
2) Functionality overkill. As geeks, its hard for us to imagine that there's people who just want to make calls and perhaps text once in awhile, but that describes a lot of people between the coasts and many over the age of 40 (not all of course, so save the "I'm 71 yrs old and a multimedia gangsta!" posts
Tragic as it is, much of the whizzy wonderment of the iPhone is lost on a lot of people, when you step back and consider the market as a whole, not just users who are like us.
This is not to say that the iPhone won't expand the smartphone market somewhat- I think it will, simply due to its 'game-changer' aura and marketing, and extreme ease-of-use.
But by the same token, some of the reasons why the smartphone segment of the market is small are pervasive, and not likely to go away anytime soon.
.
That's true, but it isn't just that. It's also
1) Price. Many phones are practically given away for free with a contract these days, smartphones usually can't hit those kind of pricepoints.
2) Functionality overkill. As geeks, its hard for us to imagine that there's people who just want to make calls and perhaps text once in awhile, but that describes a lot of people between the coasts and many over the age of 40 (not all of course, so save the "I'm 71 yrs old and a multimedia gangsta!" posts
Tragic as it is, much of the whizzy wonderment of the iPhone is lost on a lot of people, when you step back and consider the market as a whole, not just users who are like us.
This is not to say that the iPhone won't expand the smartphone market somewhat- I think it will, simply due to its 'game-changer' aura and marketing, and extreme ease-of-use.
But by the same token, some of the reasons why the smartphone segment of the market is small are pervasive, and not likely to go away anytime soon.
.
3), they're typically much larger than a normal cell phone.
3), they're typically much larger than a normal cell phone.
True dat.
.
Expect the stock to tumble around June 28th.
Have you been watching Mad Money? Buh buh buh buh BOO YAH!
I have a very Microsoft brainwashed MCSE friend. He's had his Microsoft certs since NT 3.51*. He's never used a Mac. He will probably never own one until more games are made Mac-compatible as he's PC gamer.
He believes that Bill Gates owns a majority stake in Apple and that Microsoft "bailed out" Apple with a measly $150M investment to keep MS from becoming a monopoly**.
He has no knowledge of how OS X works or how an OS with 3% worldwide markshare could actually be better than an OS with 90% marketshare. He saw a 24" iMac today at CompUSA and asked if that was an AppleTV. I'm serious!
He has no personal cellphone and has never owned a smartphone or an iPod.
Do you have an idea of the kind of person I'm talking about?
He is getting an iPhone when it comes out!
First persnal cell phone, first iPod, first smartphone, first Apple product. How many of you know people who otherwise shy away from Apple that are getting an iPhone?
* That was my fault, I was an MCSE back in the day and got him into it.
** No need mention the real history, I'm well versed in it.