"Based on his findings, Reitzes said it's appropriate to assume that each of AT&T's 1800 nationwide retail stores are selling at least 3 iPhone handsets per day, which alone would equate to approximately 500,000 units over the course of the quarter or about 60 percent of his fiscal fourth quarter estimate of 800,000 units."
If each AT&T store sells 3 phones a day and there are 1800 stores, that is 5,400 per day. assuming 6 days a week that is 32,400 units a week. So that would be 129,600 per month and 388,800 for the Quater just from AT&T stores. This does not count Apple stores which are likely to sell 20 units a day for small stores and around 100 per day for larger stores in major metro areas.
That is a bunch of phones.
His estimate for daily Apple store sales, which seem much closer to the mark than your amazingly optimistic numbers, is 5.
That's still almost 200,000 fewer units than Reitzes is predicting. Is this shortfall made up by online sales?
Apple could easily sell 200K units in one quarter through the online store.
It is very likely that Apple will introduce some kind of an incentive (rebate/instant rebate/discount) as the Xmas shopping starts (October). Even if Apple sells only 700K iPhones this quarter, next quarter is likely to be in the millions range. Just look at how iPod sales peak during the Xmas season. If Apple can move a couple of million iPhones this Xmas quarter, this would leave about 7 millions units to be sold next year.
Next year, iPhone will be available in many additional markets (Canada, Europe). It is also very likely that Apple will introduce newer, lower cost iPhone models in January and/or June of next year, so meeting the 10 million sales goal by the end of 2008 is entirely feasible.
Actually, I do believe the buy rate will increase in the US after people begin seeing them first-hand from users and have a chance to talk about real-world issues of importance to them, vice marketing blather.
I was finally able to activate my iPhone yesterday, after waiting a month for my Verizon contract to expire, and of course I'm having a great time with it. I showed it off at work this morning, and at least one person who has been sorta-shoulda waiting for the next iteration to come out could barely contain herself as I took her through a full demo and talked about her real-world concerns. She's definitely at the tipping point, as I bet more and more people will be in the near future. The fact that Apple's now getting refurbished returns back into the pipeline at $100 off ($399 & $499) is certainly getting attention:
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
now it looks like, hopefully, a million iphones sold by the end of the quarter.
i dont know about anyone else but this seems like a big dissapointment to me...
A launch will always have pent-up demand. Apple did report a few hundred thousand sold over a few days at launch. Now it seems like the fall-off from opening weekend was worked into the estimates fairly accurately.
I think one interesting thing was that Apple appeared to have almost exactly the right amount of stock on-hand to meet demand. I remember the Apple of the 90's that would have a warehouse full of crap and not have a singular popular model in stock. Now you have stores being resupplied almost exactly when they run out of stock. Which means their distribution network is humming and that they probably got the price exactly right. Now that there might be a little excess capacity, maybe we'll see a price cut going into fall/holidays.
A launch will always have pent-up demand. Apple did report a few hundred thousand sold over a few days at launch. Now it seems like the fall-off from opening weekend was worked into the estimates fairly accurately.
I think one interesting thing was that Apple appeared to have almost exactly the right amount of stock on-hand to meet demand. I remember the Apple of the 90's that would have a warehouse full of crap and not have a singular popular model in stock. Now you have stores being resupplied almost exactly when they run out of stock. Which means their distribution network is humming and that they probably got the price exactly right. Now that there might be a little excess capacity, maybe we'll see a price cut going into fall/holidays.
I also remember, in the '90's, when I had to wait a month for a computer, because they were so far behind because of their perennial underestimating demand because of fears of overestimating demand.
Ok. A limited capacity flash based touchscreen video iPod is definitely a non starter for me. I'm buying only if there's at least 80GB of storage.
For me it's not the GB... it's the functionality. I've been on a 10 GB 3G iPod for like 4 years now. I don't plan to get a new one until there is a significant functionality upgrade. I don't mind if I can only fit in like 10 - 20 episodes of a series. If the next model sports the same OSX and touch screen as iPhone, then a 16 GB would be fine for me, allthough I'd prefer 32 GB. If it in fact IS an iPhone without the phone, that would be crazy. I sadly expect it to be without wifi (and camera) though. A wifi enabled iPod would possibly kill some of the iPhone sales I think.. I for one would buy the iPod, not the iPhone if this was the case.
Btw.. I suspect the next wave of iPhone sales will take off when Apple show off their software strategy sometimes this fall. They created this portable OSX so that they can start selling software on iTunes after all... didn't they?
i can't find the "1 million" estimate (which I believe was a whisper # being bandied about prelaunch) but some of the analysts were calling for 700,000 to 500,000 units sold in the first weekend.
i absolutely agree that there was a ton of pre-launch hype but still... these iphone numbers are not living up to the analysts (admitedly) overhyped expections.
"Earlier this month, in the wake of the iPhone?s opening weekend with press reports of huge lines at Apple and AT&T stores, analysts upped their opening weekend sales forecasts. Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey originally predicted 350,000 in sales, but, after the device?s launch, raised his prediction to 700,000. Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster likewise raised his initial estimate of 200,000 iPhones sold to 500,000."
184,500 x 3 = 553,500 per quarter. The math is fine.
In addition, that is only the current rate: Apple=5 ATT=3 per day but just in case anyone overlooked the fact that Christmas falls in the 4th quarter, I thought I'd mention that there may be a slight uptick in the volume in the later months.
No. Those were the numbers being used by anti-Apple shills AFTER the event to try and pretend that the launch was a failure. Much like you.... hmm...
There were plenty of Apple fans on this site that weekend wetting their pants and talking about a million sales in a weekend, usualy followed by comments like "Your the man Steve Jobs" "F you Nokia, F You Motorola your finsished" etc.. etc.. was quite entertaining.
i absolutely agree that there was a ton of pre-launch hype but still... these iphone numbers are not living up to the analysts (admitedly) overhyped expections.
So what?
The predictions were made based on wild guesses with no basis in reality. They were completely clueless. What does it matter if they don't live up to expectations that were worthless in the first place, that has no bearing on whether the product is successful or not.
How can an estimate based on "long lines" be taken seriously? With the exception to a few people posting on message boards, people seem to have realized how idiotic those predictions were and stopped mentioning them at all.
Which is a long way from the burn rate of 800,000 per month needed to hit 10 million by the end of 2008.
It also only counts the US and if you go to the trouble of actually READING the AI article it makes a mention of 3 further countries getting the iPhone some time in December 2007, its up to you to consider if that might have some small impact in the 10 million.. you think?
There were plenty of Apple fans on this site that weekend wetting their pants and talking about a million sales in a weekend, usualy followed by comments like "Your the man Steve Jobs" "F you Nokia, F You Motorola your finsished" etc.. etc.. was quite entertaining.
And now it's "So What they didn't know what they were talking about"....
And now it's "So What... they didn't know what they were talking about"....
Well, at least the members of this forum who got all excited about outrageous numbers weren't passing them off as 'expert guidance'.
Apple never claimed the numbers being floated by the pundants... (numbers that were obviously aimed at setting the iPhone up for disappointment.)
BTW, for fun check out this bake-off between iPhone and the Nokia N95.
What's interesting isn't the results per se (iPhone wins by a nose), but the fact that no one bothers to mention the fact that someone who buys the Nokia has everything the phone will ever have to offer, while the iPhone is only beginning to show its stuff because its software driven.
Well, at least the members of this forum who got all excited about outrageous numbers weren't passing them off as 'expert guidance'.
Apple never claimed the numbers being floated by the pundants... (numbers that were obviously aimed at setting the iPhone up for disappointment.)
BTW, for fun check out this bake-off between iPhone and the Nokia N95.
What's interesting isn't the results per se (iPhone wins by a nose), but the fact that no one bothers to mention the fact that someone who buys the Nokia has everything the phone will ever have to offer, while the iPhone is only beginning to show its stuff because its software driven.
I agree with your points. But there are a couple of snags that will plague the iPhone.....
1. Until the break away from AT&T or at least 2.5G they will be dogged by the lack of performance when out of WIFI range. Which is often when on moving around. It's pitiful.
2. People need to be able to put 3rd party programs on the phone without hacking it.
For the iPhone to really take off those two things are going to need to happen in my opinion. The numbers floated here that were high, were accepted, the numbers that were lower not, and none of the limitations of the phone were taken into account.
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
now it looks like, hopefully, a million iphones sold by the end of the quarter.
i dont know about anyone else but this seems like a big dissapointment to me...
Not at all - selling a million of anything in the first 30 business hours in 2000 combined stores isn't likely.
Apple only had to announce the results for the quarter, which was 30 selling hours.
One thing that you can look at is that they just announced a constant supply at all stores (no more 9pm checking the web site) just in the past week or so. You can imagine the supply was constrained for the manufacturing period before and after the launch, though they had 250K units piled up and ready for the launch. That could mean that they were selling at a small but decent percentage of the 30 hour rate for the past month+ plus online sales.
I think you'll see some promising numbers in the next quarterly report.
Comments
Not sure about this math
"Based on his findings, Reitzes said it's appropriate to assume that each of AT&T's 1800 nationwide retail stores are selling at least 3 iPhone handsets per day, which alone would equate to approximately 500,000 units over the course of the quarter or about 60 percent of his fiscal fourth quarter estimate of 800,000 units."
If each AT&T store sells 3 phones a day and there are 1800 stores, that is 5,400 per day. assuming 6 days a week that is 32,400 units a week. So that would be 129,600 per month and 388,800 for the Quater just from AT&T stores. This does not count Apple stores which are likely to sell 20 units a day for small stores and around 100 per day for larger stores in major metro areas.
That is a bunch of phones.
His estimate for daily Apple store sales, which seem much closer to the mark than your amazingly optimistic numbers, is 5.
That's still almost 200,000 fewer units than Reitzes is predicting. Is this shortfall made up by online sales?
Apple could easily sell 200K units in one quarter through the online store.
It is very likely that Apple will introduce some kind of an incentive (rebate/instant rebate/discount) as the Xmas shopping starts (October). Even if Apple sells only 700K iPhones this quarter, next quarter is likely to be in the millions range. Just look at how iPod sales peak during the Xmas season. If Apple can move a couple of million iPhones this Xmas quarter, this would leave about 7 millions units to be sold next year.
Next year, iPhone will be available in many additional markets (Canada, Europe). It is also very likely that Apple will introduce newer, lower cost iPhone models in January and/or June of next year, so meeting the 10 million sales goal by the end of 2008 is entirely feasible.
I was finally able to activate my iPhone yesterday, after waiting a month for my Verizon contract to expire, and of course I'm having a great time with it. I showed it off at work this morning, and at least one person who has been sorta-shoulda waiting for the next iteration to come out could barely contain herself as I took her through a full demo and talked about her real-world concerns. She's definitely at the tipping point, as I bet more and more people will be in the near future. The fact that Apple's now getting refurbished returns back into the pipeline at $100 off ($399 & $499) is certainly getting attention:
http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPL...ified%20iPhone
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
now it looks like, hopefully, a million iphones sold by the end of the quarter.
i dont know about anyone else but this seems like a big dissapointment to me...
A launch will always have pent-up demand. Apple did report a few hundred thousand sold over a few days at launch. Now it seems like the fall-off from opening weekend was worked into the estimates fairly accurately.
I think one interesting thing was that Apple appeared to have almost exactly the right amount of stock on-hand to meet demand. I remember the Apple of the 90's that would have a warehouse full of crap and not have a singular popular model in stock. Now you have stores being resupplied almost exactly when they run out of stock. Which means their distribution network is humming and that they probably got the price exactly right. Now that there might be a little excess capacity, maybe we'll see a price cut going into fall/holidays.
A launch will always have pent-up demand. Apple did report a few hundred thousand sold over a few days at launch. Now it seems like the fall-off from opening weekend was worked into the estimates fairly accurately.
I think one interesting thing was that Apple appeared to have almost exactly the right amount of stock on-hand to meet demand. I remember the Apple of the 90's that would have a warehouse full of crap and not have a singular popular model in stock. Now you have stores being resupplied almost exactly when they run out of stock. Which means their distribution network is humming and that they probably got the price exactly right. Now that there might be a little excess capacity, maybe we'll see a price cut going into fall/holidays.
I also remember, in the '90's, when I had to wait a month for a computer, because they were so far behind because of their perennial underestimating demand because of fears of overestimating demand.
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
...
Where did you see these estimates?
new ipods anyone?
Ok. A limited capacity flash based touchscreen video iPod is definitely a non starter for me. I'm buying only if there's at least 80GB of storage.
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
now it looks like, hopefully, a million iphones sold by the end of the quarter.
i dont know about anyone else but this seems like a big dissapointment to me...
No. Those were the numbers being used by anti-Apple shills AFTER the event to try and pretend that the launch was a failure. Much like you.... hmm...
Ok. A limited capacity flash based touchscreen video iPod is definitely a non starter for me. I'm buying only if there's at least 80GB of storage.
For me it's not the GB... it's the functionality. I've been on a 10 GB 3G iPod for like 4 years now. I don't plan to get a new one until there is a significant functionality upgrade. I don't mind if I can only fit in like 10 - 20 episodes of a series. If the next model sports the same OSX and touch screen as iPhone, then a 16 GB would be fine for me, allthough I'd prefer 32 GB. If it in fact IS an iPhone without the phone, that would be crazy. I sadly expect it to be without wifi (and camera) though. A wifi enabled iPod would possibly kill some of the iPhone sales I think.. I for one would buy the iPod, not the iPhone if this was the case.
i absolutely agree that there was a ton of pre-launch hype but still... these iphone numbers are not living up to the analysts (admitedly) overhyped expections.
"Earlier this month, in the wake of the iPhone?s opening weekend with press reports of huge lines at Apple and AT&T stores, analysts upped their opening weekend sales forecasts. Goldman Sachs analyst David Bailey originally predicted 350,000 in sales, but, after the device?s launch, raised his prediction to 700,000. Piper Jaffray?s Gene Munster likewise raised his initial estimate of 200,000 iPhones sold to 500,000."
http://www.macworld.com/news/2007/07...?lsrc=mwtoprss
184,500 x 3 = 553,500 per quarter. The math is fine.
In addition, that is only the current rate: Apple=5 ATT=3 per day but just in case anyone overlooked the fact that Christmas falls in the 4th quarter, I thought I'd mention that there may be a slight uptick in the volume in the later months.
m
No. Those were the numbers being used by anti-Apple shills AFTER the event to try and pretend that the launch was a failure. Much like you.... hmm...
There were plenty of Apple fans on this site that weekend wetting their pants and talking about a million sales in a weekend, usualy followed by comments like "Your the man Steve Jobs" "F you Nokia, F You Motorola your finsished" etc.. etc.. was quite entertaining.
i absolutely agree that there was a ton of pre-launch hype but still... these iphone numbers are not living up to the analysts (admitedly) overhyped expections.
So what?
The predictions were made based on wild guesses with no basis in reality. They were completely clueless. What does it matter if they don't live up to expectations that were worthless in the first place, that has no bearing on whether the product is successful or not.
How can an estimate based on "long lines" be taken seriously? With the exception to a few people posting on message boards, people seem to have realized how idiotic those predictions were and stopped mentioning them at all.
Which is a long way from the burn rate of 800,000 per month needed to hit 10 million by the end of 2008.
It also only counts the US and if you go to the trouble of actually READING the AI article it makes a mention of 3 further countries getting the iPhone some time in December 2007, its up to you to consider if that might have some small impact in the 10 million.. you think?
There were plenty of Apple fans on this site that weekend wetting their pants and talking about a million sales in a weekend, usualy followed by comments like "Your the man Steve Jobs" "F you Nokia, F You Motorola your finsished" etc.. etc.. was quite entertaining.
Well, at least the members of this forum who got all excited about outrageous numbers weren't passing them off as 'expert guidance'.
Apple never claimed the numbers being floated by the pundants... (numbers that were obviously aimed at setting the iPhone up for disappointment.)
BTW, for fun check out this bake-off between iPhone and the Nokia N95.
What's interesting isn't the results per se (iPhone wins by a nose), but the fact that no one bothers to mention the fact that someone who buys the Nokia has everything the phone will ever have to offer, while the iPhone is only beginning to show its stuff because its software driven.
http://reviews.cnet.com/4370-11399_7....html?tag=lnav
Well, at least the members of this forum who got all excited about outrageous numbers weren't passing them off as 'expert guidance'.
Apple never claimed the numbers being floated by the pundants... (numbers that were obviously aimed at setting the iPhone up for disappointment.)
BTW, for fun check out this bake-off between iPhone and the Nokia N95.
What's interesting isn't the results per se (iPhone wins by a nose), but the fact that no one bothers to mention the fact that someone who buys the Nokia has everything the phone will ever have to offer, while the iPhone is only beginning to show its stuff because its software driven.
http://reviews.cnet.com/4370-11399_7....html?tag=lnav
I agree with your points. But there are a couple of snags that will plague the iPhone.....
1. Until the break away from AT&T or at least 2.5G they will be dogged by the lack of performance when out of WIFI range. Which is often when on moving around. It's pitiful.
2. People need to be able to put 3rd party programs on the phone without hacking it.
For the iPhone to really take off those two things are going to need to happen in my opinion. The numbers floated here that were high, were accepted, the numbers that were lower not, and none of the limitations of the phone were taken into account.
remember the iphone launch when some analysts were predicting 800,000 to 1 million iPhones sold over a long weekend?
now it looks like, hopefully, a million iphones sold by the end of the quarter.
i dont know about anyone else but this seems like a big dissapointment to me...
Not at all - selling a million of anything in the first 30 business hours in 2000 combined stores isn't likely.
Apple only had to announce the results for the quarter, which was 30 selling hours.
One thing that you can look at is that they just announced a constant supply at all stores (no more 9pm checking the web site) just in the past week or so. You can imagine the supply was constrained for the manufacturing period before and after the launch, though they had 250K units piled up and ready for the launch. That could mean that they were selling at a small but decent percentage of the 30 hour rate for the past month+ plus online sales.
I think you'll see some promising numbers in the next quarterly report.