this would be the same web that had 4 deep sea cables cut recently, and we hardly noticed a blip after about a week, because data was re-routed.
tell me, have those cables been fixed/re-laid yet?
the movie download FUD you are spouting is the same churn of crap that the music studios spewed 5-10 years ago.. oh noes the intertubes won't be able to cope.
Gee 5-10 years eh? you think we might lay some more cable by then?
theres this place on the intertubes called the iTunes music store, you may have heard of it, its up and running, along with countless other websites, all saturating the wires with noughts and ones.
the world is still turning.
go back to your cave.
it will be dark soon, and you might want to light the fire to keep the Fear away.
Walter in a world where ISPs are saying they want to put a cap on downloads and movie companies don't want to just give you full access to their product I think we're all in the same cave. You keep saying things like this and the real experts, the people who own, manufacture, and engineer the outcome say differently. It's only those hopeful people who would like to imagine a downloading world where all these problems are just magically done away with that say otherwise. Besides Walter my posts are all proBluRay you should be glad we get some time before downloading everything can be acheived.
However despite all this evidence I suspect you'll still try to say I'm wrong.
It's not just more cable. It's the movie companies and a method to make it easy for customers to use this product ( watching it on something other than their computer monitor, sharing it with their friends the same way they do physical media today etc. ).
There's downloading music and then there's downloading video, and then there's downloading true HD like you would see on you BD player. That's alot more information than just music. So say the new Indiana Jones movie comes out and they've got a special 10.99! Millions of people try to get this movie the first day. Can you imagine how people just trying to do commerce on the internet would view the slow down?
I'm not saying it won't happen. It'll just be awhile before we get to that point and this is practical.
this would be the same web that had 4 deep sea cables cut recently, and we hardly noticed a blip after about a week, because data was re-routed.
tell me, have those cables been fixed/re-laid yet?
the movie download FUD you are spouting is the same churn of crap that the music studios spewed 5-10 years ago.. oh noes the intertubes won't be able to cope.
Gee 5-10 years eh? you think we might lay some more cable by then?
theres this place on the intertubes called the iTunes music store, you may have heard of it, its up and running, along with countless other websites, all saturating the wires with noughts and ones.
the world is still turning.
go back to your cave.
it will be dark soon, and you might want to light the fire to keep the Fear away.
It is driving down the cost of data transmission, just as it is driving down the cost of processor power.
With my modest UK ISP - I can download a little less than one megabyte per second.
In real terms that means a 45 minute TV show in standard definition takes about 10 mins to download.
The same show at 720p with 5.1 audio takes around 25 minutes. The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough.
Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit. The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
The cost of distribution and manufacture of physical media is something paid for by the studios. Moore's law does not make disk pressing plants, and trucks and retaillers cheaper over time. They are keenly aware that selling a collection of zeros and ones for $10 may be more profitable than selling a plastic disk for $20.
The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough. Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit.
Upconverted DVD is also "good enough", and about on part with iTunes "HD" content. If "good enough" is all we're going for, then why on earth do we have HDTVs in the first place? I didn't spend $2500 on a television for "good enough".
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
No. Internet-based HD downloads aren't going to jump from 4mbps to 35mbps in a year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage
The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
How convenient is it going to be when your hard drive goes belly up and you lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of video purchases all at once?
Jimmac is correct that it's going to be a while before video without physical media is practical. There's no way to safely and conveniently store a library of HD video yet, if we can even call it HD. Download speeds are not where they need to be for truly high definition content, and while they may be there in 5 years for urban areas it'll be at least 10 before rural communities could seriously do without optical media delivery. And even after those two technical issues, there's poor distribution (movies come and go from the iTunes Music Store on a weekly basis, and you can only purchase SD movies anyhow), and the issue of DRM. I don't know about you, but with how little faith Apple has in their Apple TV (continuing to call it just a hobby), I'd hate to have all of my movies locked inside a box that could be discontinued any day.
Frankly, if I'm going to sit through a film for two hours, I think I can take thirty seconds to remove the movie from a case and put the disc in a tray. Especially if that means getting the best picture and sound quality possible in return for my extra 20 seconds of strenuous, laborious work. Movies are not like songs; you're not going to decide to change it every 3 minutes, so you don't need instant access to every movie you own instantaneously.
How convenient is it going to be when your hard drive goes belly up and you lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of video purchases all at once?
One word: Drobo.
C.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen.
1080p makes sense for projection displays. But for LCD and Plasma screens - It is utterly pointless unless you sit within 6 feet.
The bit density in BluRay is mainly about deterring piracy.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen.
1080p makes sense for projection displays. But for LCD and Plasma screens - It is utterly pointless unless you sit within 6 feet.
The bit density in BluRay is mainly about deterring piracy.
What happens with something goes wrong with the Drobo?
And you can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen, I can tell the difference on a 26" screen (and on my 24" iMac). The Apple 'HD' downloads are a very low bit rate, they are not good. Also Blu-Ray gives you HD audio, Apple has only just provided DD, at that rate it will be over 10 years before they catch up on HD audio.
It is driving down the cost of data transmission, just as it is driving down the cost of processor power.
With my modest UK ISP - I can download a little less than one megabyte per second.
In real terms that means a 45 minute TV show in standard definition takes about 10 mins to download.
The same show at 720p with 5.1 audio takes around 25 minutes. The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough.
Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit. The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
The cost of distribution and manufacture of physical media is something paid for by the studios. Moore's law does not make disk pressing plants, and trucks and retaillers cheaper over time. They are keenly aware that selling a collection of zeros and ones for $10 may be more profitable than selling a plastic disk for $20.
C.
I'm sorry but you're talking to someone who's very well versed in computers. Had the internet since 95', used to sell computers in the 80's when they were just starting out, had broad band since 2000, and sometimes it doesn't help to just throw money at the problem. Sometimes you really have to make physical changes.
Cost aside, what may be the most controversial aspect of this speed bump is that subscribers of the residential plans will get no higher cap over the 250GB monthly limit which was instated earlier this October. Comcast's own release prides the new Extreme plan on letting customers "download a high-def movie (6 GB) in about 16 minutes, a standard-def movie (2 GB) in about 5 minutes and a standard-def TV show (300 MB) in a matter of seconds." Do the math and you'll see that an extreme subscriber could easily blow past the 250 GB cap in a matter of hours.
I know all about Moore's law except it didn't apply when they ran into the heat problem with trying to shrink the processor size in PCs a few years ago. We kind of reached level ground there for a few years while they figured out this problem.
You could apply this to the internet.
Once again I'm not saying it won't happen. It'll just take a little longer than you're implying. All the wishful thinking in the world won't change that.
Quote:
The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience
Except there's that portability problem again. Until they get that ironed out for the masses this won't be the main thing.
And trust me if you want this to fly people will want the best. 1080p. It won't matter if you can't see it because it's a marketing thing.
The reason the iTunes download model works is because the purchaser can burn the music to physical media.
Downloadable HD movies MUST be structured around this exact same model in order to be successful. Anything less and I'm not interested (and I suspect the vast majority of movie enthusiasts and collectors would agree).
Ultra-compressed movies that have been DRM'd to death and cannot be shared is not appealing at all.
The reason the iTunes download model works is because the purchaser can burn the music to physical media.
Downloadable HD movies MUST be structured around this exact same model in order to be successful. Anything less and I'm not interested (and I suspect the vast majority of movie enthusiasts and collectors would agree).
Ultra-compressed movies that have been DRM'd to death and cannot be shared is not appealing at all.
Thank you!
True it works for music because you can burn. HD video is another kettle of fish entirely which you can't burn legally. Not saying it won't happen but there are some issues to work out first and that's going to take awhile.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen..
That's nice. But the problem with internet-served "HD" downloads isn't that they're 720p; it's that they're 4mbps instead of Blu-Ray's 30mbps. And you CAN see the difference in that, unless you're sitting 14 feet away from your screen. "HD" at those kinds of low bitrates is more or less just upconverted DVD, in terms of picture depth and clarity.
That's nice. But the problem with internet-served "HD" downloads isn't that they're 720p; it's that they're 4mbps instead of Blu-Ray's 30mbps. And you CAN see the difference in that, unless you're sitting 14 feet away from your screen. "HD" at those kinds of low bitrates is more or less just upconverted DVD, in terms of picture depth and clarity.
I agree. it's like MP3 encoded at 16kbps, it doesn't sound anywhere near a 240kbps audio clip. In the same way that a Superbit DVD looks 20x better than a regular DVD.
For argument sake I think DL will be common practice in the future for video, but I also think many people will also prefer to have the disk. It's easy with music. I still burn all my itunes stuff to CD's, and I also back up my random 1's and 2 songs from various artists on DVD. I think the disk will rule before video downloading in the US reaches the same quality standards as a Blu-Ray disk does and quality will probably prevail for most people.
Most consumers would not care or even bother to notice the difference. Even if the technology delivers 20x better quality, if it only caters to 5% of the market, it would not be a successful product. As 95% of the market would choose cheaper, easier, and more convenience services at any time.
Most consumers would not care or even bother to notice the difference. Even if the technology delivers 20x better quality, if it only caters to 5% of the market, it would not be a successful product. As 95% of the market would choose cheaper, easier, and more convenience services at any time.
If that's true then they would probably stick with DVD.
However I think even the average person will get on board with HD but downloading still has a way to go before it's practical enough to become the main thing and edge out disc.
What happens with something goes wrong with the Drobo?
With Drobo, if a drive fails a little light comes on and tells you to replace the faulty drive. No loss of data. It just carries on serving.
What if Sony's losses keep on mounting? And they drop BluRay for Violet Ray or some other gimmicky format? BluRay is just LaserDisk. If someone handed you a LaserDisk today, it is useless. It's too big for a coaster.
I think DRM-free files will always have more longevity than plastic discs.
I am sorry, but please read my post. There is nothing more portable than a 8GB file. Zeroes and Ones really don't not weigh very much.
C.
Very funny but this doesn't address the question about moving the file to another place or device like playing on your friend's TV or loaning it to him or her which is what we were talking about. As Northgate said this is a real problem with this idea if you can't burn it to a DVD or something else. And this is just one of the problems with downloading becoming mainstream. Now do you get it?
Oh by the way I sit comfortably at 6 feet from my 53" set.
With Drobo, if a drive fails a little light comes on and tells you to replace the faulty drive. No loss of data. It just carries on serving.
What if Sony's losses keep on mounting? And they drop BluRay for Violet Ray or some other gimmicky format? BluRay is just LaserDisk. If someone handed you a LaserDisk today, it is useless. It's too big for a coaster.
I think DRM-free files will always have more longevity than plastic discs.
C.
When the problems are worked out so they can be practical for the masses.
Comments
this would be the same web that had 4 deep sea cables cut recently, and we hardly noticed a blip after about a week, because data was re-routed.
tell me, have those cables been fixed/re-laid yet?
the movie download FUD you are spouting is the same churn of crap that the music studios spewed 5-10 years ago.. oh noes the intertubes won't be able to cope.
Gee 5-10 years eh? you think we might lay some more cable by then?
theres this place on the intertubes called the iTunes music store, you may have heard of it, its up and running, along with countless other websites, all saturating the wires with noughts and ones.
the world is still turning.
go back to your cave.
it will be dark soon, and you might want to light the fire to keep the Fear away.
Walter in a world where ISPs are saying they want to put a cap on downloads and movie companies don't want to just give you full access to their product I think we're all in the same cave. You keep saying things like this and the real experts, the people who own, manufacture, and engineer the outcome say differently. It's only those hopeful people who would like to imagine a downloading world where all these problems are just magically done away with that say otherwise. Besides Walter my posts are all proBluRay you should be glad we get some time before downloading everything can be acheived.
In case you doubt don't take my word for it. Read this : http://www.mediapundit.net/2008/04/c...s-what-hd.html
And : http://dvice.com/archives/2006/05/in...e_hd_video.php
and : http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/06/28...tion-download/
and : http://www.baekdal.com/articles/Tech...-video-online/
And : http://www.audioholics.com/news/edit...e=081420080410
However despite all this evidence I suspect you'll still try to say I'm wrong.
It's not just more cable. It's the movie companies and a method to make it easy for customers to use this product ( watching it on something other than their computer monitor, sharing it with their friends the same way they do physical media today etc. ).
There's downloading music and then there's downloading video, and then there's downloading true HD like you would see on you BD player. That's alot more information than just music. So say the new Indiana Jones movie comes out and they've got a special 10.99! Millions of people try to get this movie the first day. Can you imagine how people just trying to do commerce on the internet would view the slow down?
I'm not saying it won't happen. It'll just be awhile before we get to that point and this is practical.
this would be the same web that had 4 deep sea cables cut recently, and we hardly noticed a blip after about a week, because data was re-routed.
tell me, have those cables been fixed/re-laid yet?
the movie download FUD you are spouting is the same churn of crap that the music studios spewed 5-10 years ago.. oh noes the intertubes won't be able to cope.
Gee 5-10 years eh? you think we might lay some more cable by then?
theres this place on the intertubes called the iTunes music store, you may have heard of it, its up and running, along with countless other websites, all saturating the wires with noughts and ones.
the world is still turning.
go back to your cave.
it will be dark soon, and you might want to light the fire to keep the Fear away.
There's something called Moore's Law.
It is driving down the cost of data transmission, just as it is driving down the cost of processor power.
With my modest UK ISP - I can download a little less than one megabyte per second.
In real terms that means a 45 minute TV show in standard definition takes about 10 mins to download.
The same show at 720p with 5.1 audio takes around 25 minutes. The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough.
Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit. The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
The cost of distribution and manufacture of physical media is something paid for by the studios. Moore's law does not make disk pressing plants, and trucks and retaillers cheaper over time. They are keenly aware that selling a collection of zeros and ones for $10 may be more profitable than selling a plastic disk for $20.
C.
The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough. Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit.
Upconverted DVD is also "good enough", and about on part with iTunes "HD" content. If "good enough" is all we're going for, then why on earth do we have HDTVs in the first place? I didn't spend $2500 on a television for "good enough".
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
No. Internet-based HD downloads aren't going to jump from 4mbps to 35mbps in a year.
The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
How convenient is it going to be when your hard drive goes belly up and you lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of video purchases all at once?
Jimmac is correct that it's going to be a while before video without physical media is practical. There's no way to safely and conveniently store a library of HD video yet, if we can even call it HD. Download speeds are not where they need to be for truly high definition content, and while they may be there in 5 years for urban areas it'll be at least 10 before rural communities could seriously do without optical media delivery. And even after those two technical issues, there's poor distribution (movies come and go from the iTunes Music Store on a weekly basis, and you can only purchase SD movies anyhow), and the issue of DRM. I don't know about you, but with how little faith Apple has in their Apple TV (continuing to call it just a hobby), I'd hate to have all of my movies locked inside a box that could be discontinued any day.
Frankly, if I'm going to sit through a film for two hours, I think I can take thirty seconds to remove the movie from a case and put the disc in a tray. Especially if that means getting the best picture and sound quality possible in return for my extra 20 seconds of strenuous, laborious work. Movies are not like songs; you're not going to decide to change it every 3 minutes, so you don't need instant access to every movie you own instantaneously.
How convenient is it going to be when your hard drive goes belly up and you lose hundreds or even thousands of dollars worth of video purchases all at once?
One word: Drobo.
C.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen.
1080p makes sense for projection displays. But for LCD and Plasma screens - It is utterly pointless unless you sit within 6 feet.
The bit density in BluRay is mainly about deterring piracy.
One word: Drobo.
C.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen.
1080p makes sense for projection displays. But for LCD and Plasma screens - It is utterly pointless unless you sit within 6 feet.
The bit density in BluRay is mainly about deterring piracy.
What happens with something goes wrong with the Drobo?
And you can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen, I can tell the difference on a 26" screen (and on my 24" iMac). The Apple 'HD' downloads are a very low bit rate, they are not good. Also Blu-Ray gives you HD audio, Apple has only just provided DD, at that rate it will be over 10 years before they catch up on HD audio.
Jimmac,
There's something called Moore's Law.
It is driving down the cost of data transmission, just as it is driving down the cost of processor power.
With my modest UK ISP - I can download a little less than one megabyte per second.
In real terms that means a 45 minute TV show in standard definition takes about 10 mins to download.
The same show at 720p with 5.1 audio takes around 25 minutes. The 720p format is great quality - but not as good a BluRay. Viewed on a 46" screen at 10 feet. It's good enough.
Better quality may be required for some purposes, but frankly it's a marginal benefit. The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience. Instant access to all your collection. That benefit outweighs the quality disbenefit.
And of course in a year or so the quality will be comparable.
The cost of distribution and manufacture of physical media is something paid for by the studios. Moore's law does not make disk pressing plants, and trucks and retaillers cheaper over time. They are keenly aware that selling a collection of zeros and ones for $10 may be more profitable than selling a plastic disk for $20.
C.
I'm sorry but you're talking to someone who's very well versed in computers. Had the internet since 95', used to sell computers in the 80's when they were just starting out, had broad band since 2000, and sometimes it doesn't help to just throw money at the problem. Sometimes you really have to make physical changes.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17939_109-...html?tag=mncol
Cost aside, what may be the most controversial aspect of this speed bump is that subscribers of the residential plans will get no higher cap over the 250GB monthly limit which was instated earlier this October. Comcast's own release prides the new Extreme plan on letting customers "download a high-def movie (6 GB) in about 16 minutes, a standard-def movie (2 GB) in about 5 minutes and a standard-def TV show (300 MB) in a matter of seconds." Do the math and you'll see that an extreme subscriber could easily blow past the 250 GB cap in a matter of hours.
I know all about Moore's law except it didn't apply when they ran into the heat problem with trying to shrink the processor size in PCs a few years ago. We kind of reached level ground there for a few years while they figured out this problem.
You could apply this to the internet.
Once again I'm not saying it won't happen. It'll just take a little longer than you're implying. All the wishful thinking in the world won't change that.
The real benefit of non-physical media is convenience
Except there's that portability problem again. Until they get that ironed out for the masses this won't be the main thing.
And trust me if you want this to fly people will want the best. 1080p. It won't matter if you can't see it because it's a marketing thing.
Downloadable HD movies MUST be structured around this exact same model in order to be successful. Anything less and I'm not interested (and I suspect the vast majority of movie enthusiasts and collectors would agree).
Ultra-compressed movies that have been DRM'd to death and cannot be shared is not appealing at all.
The reason the iTunes download model works is because the purchaser can burn the music to physical media.
Downloadable HD movies MUST be structured around this exact same model in order to be successful. Anything less and I'm not interested (and I suspect the vast majority of movie enthusiasts and collectors would agree).
Ultra-compressed movies that have been DRM'd to death and cannot be shared is not appealing at all.
Thank you!
True it works for music because you can burn. HD video is another kettle of fish entirely which you can't burn legally. Not saying it won't happen but there are some issues to work out first and that's going to take awhile.
I can tell the difference on a 26" screen (and on my 24" iMac).
You're in an ultra minority if this is true for you.
And like I said. No one. NO ONE can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen when they sit more than 6 feet away from the screen..
That's nice. But the problem with internet-served "HD" downloads isn't that they're 720p; it's that they're 4mbps instead of Blu-Ray's 30mbps. And you CAN see the difference in that, unless you're sitting 14 feet away from your screen. "HD" at those kinds of low bitrates is more or less just upconverted DVD, in terms of picture depth and clarity.
You're in an ultra minority if this is true for you.
Not really, because the 720p stuff that Apple provides is crap. If you get a good quality 720p then maybe it might be harder
That's nice. But the problem with internet-served "HD" downloads isn't that they're 720p; it's that they're 4mbps instead of Blu-Ray's 30mbps. And you CAN see the difference in that, unless you're sitting 14 feet away from your screen. "HD" at those kinds of low bitrates is more or less just upconverted DVD, in terms of picture depth and clarity.
I agree. it's like MP3 encoded at 16kbps, it doesn't sound anywhere near a 240kbps audio clip. In the same way that a Superbit DVD looks 20x better than a regular DVD.
For argument sake I think DL will be common practice in the future for video, but I also think many people will also prefer to have the disk. It's easy with music. I still burn all my itunes stuff to CD's, and I also back up my random 1's and 2 songs from various artists on DVD. I think the disk will rule before video downloading in the US reaches the same quality standards as a Blu-Ray disk does and quality will probably prevail for most people.
Most consumers would not care or even bother to notice the difference. Even if the technology delivers 20x better quality, if it only caters to 5% of the market, it would not be a successful product. As 95% of the market would choose cheaper, easier, and more convenience services at any time.
If that's true then they would probably stick with DVD.
However I think even the average person will get on board with HD but downloading still has a way to go before it's practical enough to become the main thing and edge out disc.
What happens with something goes wrong with the Drobo?
With Drobo, if a drive fails a little light comes on and tells you to replace the faulty drive. No loss of data. It just carries on serving.
What if Sony's losses keep on mounting? And they drop BluRay for Violet Ray or some other gimmicky format? BluRay is just LaserDisk. If someone handed you a LaserDisk today, it is useless. It's too big for a coaster.
I think DRM-free files will always have more longevity than plastic discs.
C.
Except there's that portability problem again.
I am sorry, but please read my post. There is nothing more portable than a 8GB file. Zeroes and Ones really don't not weigh very much.
C.
And you can tell the difference between 720p and 1080p on a 46" screen,
You can yes. If you sit really close to the screen.
C.
I am sorry, but please read my post. There is nothing more portable than a 8GB file. Zeroes and Ones really don't not weigh very much.
C.
Very funny but this doesn't address the question about moving the file to another place or device like playing on your friend's TV or loaning it to him or her which is what we were talking about. As Northgate said this is a real problem with this idea if you can't burn it to a DVD or something else. And this is just one of the problems with downloading becoming mainstream. Now do you get it?
Oh by the way I sit comfortably at 6 feet from my 53" set.
With Drobo, if a drive fails a little light comes on and tells you to replace the faulty drive. No loss of data. It just carries on serving.
What if Sony's losses keep on mounting? And they drop BluRay for Violet Ray or some other gimmicky format? BluRay is just LaserDisk. If someone handed you a LaserDisk today, it is useless. It's too big for a coaster.
I think DRM-free files will always have more longevity than plastic discs.
C.
When the problems are worked out so they can be practical for the masses.