Seeing as BR has region coding and extra drm on all of the new releases I will stick to downloading 1080p rips of them in the UK as I can't import them without having both a UK and US player (until such time a modded players become available). I also can't wait to get shafted as they will undoubtedly raise the price of BR movies seeing as there is no longer ANY competition.
Seeing as BR has region coding and extra drm on all of the new releases I will stick to downloading 1080p rips of them in the UK as I can't import them without having both a UK and US player (until such time a modded players become available). I also can't wait to get shafted as they will undoubtedly raise the price of BR movies seeing as there is no longer ANY competition.
This sucks.
You mean like it did with DVD? Oh wait, yeah it didn't.
Don't be so smug. It'll be good riddance Blu-ray sooner than you think. Now that Apple has downloadable HD movies , this is only the beginning. There should be a total convergence of HD over the internet in five years at which time the general public will finally have HDTVs and skip Blu-ray enitirely. People are not going to double dip their collections for yet another format that will eventually loose to downloads.
We're a fair distance off from people wanting to manage and collect 30 GB movie downloads.
Good luck enjoying Planet Earth as downloaded content.
You mean the same Steve Jobs who stated nobody wants to watch video on their iPod? The same Steve Jobs running Apple Inc. that now only offers one model of iPod that doesn't play video?
He told a long time ago now, that nobody buys it for the videos only. Intended that the main value i music and since i work in an Apple Center i can confirm it. The video is a good bonus but not the reason you buy an iPod in 90% of cases.
Well well, this the news I was waiting for. I'm still going to wait until prices drop below $200 for a player, and I don't even have an HDTV yet either. At least the format war and all the fan boys will fade away now...
Well well, this the news I was waiting for. I'm still going to wait until prices drop below $200 for a player, and I don't even have an HDTV yet either. At least the format war and all the fan boys will fade away now...
I can understand your not buying it until you get a Hi Def Tv, why bother?
But, waiting for prices to drop further? How long will you wait? Until the holiday season? Sometime next year? Assuming you have a Hi Def Tv before then, and are willing to spend all that money, another $50-60 shouldn't make much difference.
If some people are so concerned about that small amount, how are they going to excuse paying $25-30 per movie?
Well well, this the news I was waiting for. I'm still going to wait until prices drop below $200 for a player, and I don't even have an HDTV yet either. At least the format war and all the fan boys will fade away now...
I'm in the same boat. I just can't see getting a HDTV or bluray player until they are much cheaper. When I do finally get them, it will probably be because my TV or dvd player broke and replacing them costs about what a DVD player would be. At that point, movies will probably be cheaper as well.
These things will be cheap eventually, for those of us who don't find them that compelling, why not wait until they are way cheaper than they are now?
I'm in the same boat. I just can't see getting a HDTV or bluray player until they are much cheaper. When I do finally get them, it will probably be because my TV or dvd player broke and replacing them costs about what a DVD player would be. At that point, movies will probably be cheaper as well.
These things will be cheap eventually, for those of us who don't find them that compelling, why not wait until they are way cheaper than they are now?
If they're not compelling, then it doesn't matter.
Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players. this is what many people are missing. It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models for portable all-in-one "boombox" like devices.
If they're not compelling, then it doesn't matter.
Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players. this is what many people are missing. It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models for portable all-in-one "boombox" like devices.
"all players will be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't."
Actually, that's exactly my point. I'm sure I'll have bluray some day. But it will likely be because I'm replacing a DVD player and bluray is either about the same price, or the only thing available. Same goes for hdtv.
Actually, that's exactly my point. I'm sure I'll have bluray some day. But it will likely be because I'm replacing a DVD player and bluray is either about the same price, or the only thing available. Same goes for hdtv.
But it's not like VHS anymore... it took an insane amount of time for VHS VCRs to become ubiquitous in all households, and DVD had adoption rates far faster ( actual figures escape me but are available.)
Just because Blu-Ray won out over HD DVD doesn't mean that if you wait a couple years before buying one, it will be the only thing around. We'll be talking about the new format, twice as good, and we'll be wondering if we should buy it right away and enjoy it, or wait and see what comes next.
Damn, it's just like pushing that button on the store and buying a new Mac...
I'm not concerned about that. It didn't really matter. New tech always cost more in the beginning. Whether or not Toshiba pulled out, BD players would have continued to come down in price.
The cost of players had nothing to do with a format's acceptance by studios -- they KNOW prices will come down and adoption rates will increase. But Hollywierd is infamous for not going out on a limb if it means production cost could eat any of the profits. They like formulaic growth and return on investment; that's why so many movies suck.
It's just like building oil refineries, despite the fact they can't keep up with current demand. The oil companies won't build a $4 billion refinery that takes 3.5 - 5 years to get operational when they have no guarantee oil won't be selling for $60/barrel then and everybody will be driving Smart cars.
(if this doesn't generate off-topic commentary, nothing will.)
"all players will be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't."
That's a silly remark.
Blu-Ray will go the same way as DVD. Players will be extremely cheap. Right now, an OEM buyer can buy DVD players for $5 in quantities of 1,000. A bit less for much larger numbers. That will happen to BR as well. Do you doubt it? You shouldn't. The only ones that may not will be a few used in extremely cheap equipment that won't be usable with anything but the built-in screen.
And maybe, the players will be cheap enough that they will be used even there, because DVD players won't be made any more.
The cost of players had nothing to do with a format's acceptance by studios -- they KNOW prices will come down and adoption rates will increase. But Hollywierd is infamous for not going out on a limb if it means production cost could eat any of the profits. They like formulaic growth and return on investment; that's why so many movies suck.
It's just like building oil refineries, despite the fact they can't keep up with current demand. The oil companies won't build a $4 billion refinery that takes 3.5 - 5 years to get operational when they have no guarantee oil won't be selling for $60/barrel then and everybody will be driving Smart cars.
(if this doesn't generate off-topic commentary, nothing will.)
I didn't say that it did. I'm talking about people who have been saying that the initial price was too high, and thus wouldn't stand a chance against Hd-DVD. There have been plenty of those around, though many have now slunk off.
That's what you also said in your post, that Toshiba had that advantage. I never agreed that it was an advantage, and I was pointing out that even if it were, in the beginning, it would evaporate over time, so that it wouldn't matter.
Two years from now, most people won't even remember, and will wonder what all the fuss was all about, when they go to buy their new $75 player.
There should be a total convergence of HD over the internet in five years at which time the general public will finally have HDTVs and skip Blu-ray enitirely. People are not going to double dip their collections for yet another format that will eventually loose to downloads.
I believe your time line's off by a factor of at least two technologically and by more than that when you consider the behavior and resources of people in general as opposed to the technosenti. Listen to Leo Laporte's "Tech Guy" podcast and hear how many of the callers have questions about their Windows ME machines. So not just infrastructure challenges (upgrading essentially the entire internet -- widespread uncompressed real-time 1080p downloads are not arriving tomorrow) , but lots and lots of legacy hardware issues.
And tens of millions of people still don't use computers period, and tens of millions of those who do will NEVER download media of any kind from the net, using the digital beasts only for things they can't practically do another way (e.g., email, free streaming YouTube (and, yes, porn) or that they have to do (work-related computing).
And for some "browsing" through a bookshelf of (or a brick and mortar store full of) physical media and physically holding a few in their hands as they pick will be a more ego-syntonic experience than clicking or scrolling through screens of them. I'm a major comic book geek for decades, and while I know there's lots of great new material on the net with no bandwidth or cost issues, I almost never read online comics, nor do I expect to do so.
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Originally Posted by k2director
You fought a good fight, Toshiba. Your consumer players were technically superior from day 1, offering picture-in-picture support, ethernet connectivity, and advanced interactivity....
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Originally Posted by Felix01
Woulda been shoulda been.
Sony learned plenty from the Betamax - VHS war which *they* lost despite having a technically superior product. Sony management didn't forget that the company with a strategy which clearly recognizes market share rules will be the victor; thus, history didn't repeat itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by beingnickb
Who are these people that always think Betamax was technically superior? Why? Because it offered 10 more lines of resolution? Great. I'll take 10 LESS lines of resolution and have a medium that I can use for more than an hour.
Just for the record, Sony WAS catching up on the cartridge capacity, but too little too late, and they did make sure not to be behind on that this time as noted above.
And after BetaMax, Memory Sticks, ATrac, MiniDiscs, etc., etc. I guess Sony was due to win ONE standards war.... ...or people are getting smarter (??) since both iPods/iTunes and Blu-Ray are recent winners with arguably superior tech. Although this time, as noted, Sony took care to seed the market with players and, unlike what MOSTLY killed Betamax, first with larger capacity (even while lagging in tech extras in the beginning).
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You offered a superior product at a lower price (even before all the deep discounts leading up to Xmas), but unfortunately, Sony's Playstation 3 trojan horse strategy put considerably more Blu-Ray players in the market, which led to considerably higher Blu-Ray disc sales, which led to Warner's decision to go Blu-Ray exclusive, which led to the Netflix, Best-Buy and Walmart defections, which led to the death in the format.
Had Microsoft built HD-DVD in the Xbox 360, this story would have ended a different way...
Good pick Bill and Steve! (Of course they can just start tacking BR players as 360 add-ons in place of the HD-DVD players and only their early adopters will suffer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirHaakon
I don't really understand why people are looking so desperately to a day when downloadable content trumps everything else. Don't get me wrong, it has its place: I would gladly rather "rent" a movie online than wait for Netflix to ship it to me, but for the content I want to OWN, physical media will always be better.
What about portability? It's easy as pie to bring a movie to a friends' house or on a trip with a disc... just pop it in a player and you're good to go. Once the DRM-laden file is downloaded to your computer, however, what are you going to do with it? Burn it to Blu-ray? Haha...
Yup.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh
Millions wasted because they couldn't agree on one standard as they did with DVD.
...and think how much more "unified" computing would be if the market had rid us of that pesky Macintosh competitor to Windows......
Wasted? Maybe. Or maybe the race made both better until the winner emerged, and now the BR camp will complacently stick to their laurels, unless they feel the spur of downloads pushing them to stay relevant.
Competition between producers almost always ultimately benefits consumers in terms of product quality, innovation, durability and price, except of course the early adopters who pick the wrong horse. I follow tech avidly, but seldom choose to be a pioneer. Those who do I often admire, and if there were none, no new tech would ever be successfully rolled out, but they should be prepared to suffer the fate of pioneers without whining: more arrows in the back than those who wait for the frontier to be semi-tamed.
Meanwhile, I hope some of those folks are getting ready to plunk down big bucks on infant UHDV to help get it ready for second and third wave buyers like me.....
Just because Blu-Ray won out over HD DVD doesn't mean that if you wait a couple years before buying one, it will be the only thing around.
Down the road, when the cost of a bluray player is about what we're paying now for a DVD player, why would anyone buy a DVD player? Even if you just plan on watching dvds, you can do that with the new player. And why would a manufacturer bother making dvd players at the point where making bluray is almost as cheap?
Look at cdrom/dvd in computers. Once dvd got dirt cheap, were there many cdrom players still being made or sold? Same with writable, once that got cheap, were there many read-only drives sold? Even if people have no intention of using the extra features, if the better unit is really cheap, why not just get it?
I didn't say that it did. I'm talking about people who have been saying that the initial price was too high, and thus wouldn't stand a chance against Hd-DVD. There have been plenty of those around, though many have now slunk off.
That's what you also said in your post, that Toshiba had that advantage. I never agreed that it was an advantage, and I was pointing out that even if it were, in the beginning, it would evaporate over time, so that it wouldn't matter.
Two years from now, most people won't even remember, and will wonder what all the fuss was all about, when they go to buy their new $75 player.
I NEVER said Toshiba had an advantage, I merely commented to the forum what I heard and read so many industry speculators and pundits say: that HD DVD would probably have the inside track to STUDIO adoption because disc production would cost less, making HD DVDs more profitable to them, thereby gaining rapid support by STUDIOS over Blu-Ray in the critical period of early adoption and marketability. For whatever reason, it was the studios bailing on HD DVD that brought the format down, not the consumer retailers. They likely saw early consumer stats, got nervous, and went with Blu-Ray. This was probably helped along by Sony being a major film production company as well as a hardware production company, which Toshiba was not.
And it was YOU who said "Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players... It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models.."
I merely paraphrased your post into "all disc players would be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't," as a flippant observation I'm prone to making when I come across comments that state how ALL of anything will be one version, and then go on to outline the exceptions to their own rule. I may not have your impressive industry knowledge or experience, but I'm used to "all" meaning ALL in usage, not just "most."
I'm wasn't aware that huge amounts of people thought Blu-Ray players were too expensive vs. HD DVD... they sold pretty much in the same ballpark in my part of the world, all things considered. Almost anything Sony makes is sold at a premium, and with their players priced high, there's no reason for other BR players to be lower at this early stage of market development.
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
Have a nice day... really, I mean it. My posts aren't meant as a personal attack.
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
I'm very doubtful that we'll ever see a physical media format for video to replace bluray. Many people are perfectly happy with DVD already and see no need to upgrade to bluray. Any format beyond bluray will face even more of an attitude of who needs it?
I think we'll see a similar situation to CDs. They invented a new, better format, but people didn't perceive enough of an improvement to bother switching. And then online music came along and took over - we may see new audio formats, but they will just be file formats and software based. With bluray, I think people see some improvement, it's just a question of how much it's worth paying extra for. The generation after that, I don't think there will be enough people seeing an improvement (or able to afford screens giant enough to see the difference) for it to become a viable format.
People don't want increasingly better formats over and over again. At some point, they are happy with what they see and hear and have no desire for anything better (at some point you reach the limits of human perception and improvements are imperceptible).
I wonder if the same will happen with game consoles, if we'll reach a point where graphics are pretty much photorealistic and people would be happy keeping the machine and just getting new content for years to come.
I NEVER said Toshiba had an advantage, I merely commented to the forum what I heard and read so many industry speculators and pundits say: that HD DVD would probably have the inside track to STUDIO adoption because disc production would cost less, making HD DVDs more profitable to them, thereby gaining rapid support by STUDIOS over Blu-Ray in the critical period of early adoption and marketability. For whatever reason, it was the studios bailing on HD DVD that brought the format down, not the consumer retailers. They likely saw early consumer stats, got nervous, and went with Blu-Ray. This was probably helped along by Sony being a major film production company as well as a hardware production company, which Toshiba was not.
If that's what you're saying, fine, but that's not HOW you said it. Your first sentence was;
Quote:
I'm not tech-spec qualified to vouch for superiority of one format over another, but the one thing that was decidedly in Toshiba's favor in the early days was the HUGE point that HD DVDs could be manufactured in existing DVD manufacturing facilities, with little change in the lines and equipment investment;
That's how you put it. It wasn't that the industry thought that way. You said, later in the post, that the content companies may have thought that.
The first quote very much read like your opinion. If not, then you've clarified it.
Quote:
And it was YOU who said "Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players... It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models.."
Yes, I'm not denying that. I stand by it. Why do you think I denied it? I understand what you mean though.
Quote:
I merely paraphrased your post into "all disc players would be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't," as a flippant observation I'm prone to making when I come across comments that state how ALL of anything will be one version, and then go on to outline the exceptions to their own rule. I may not have your impressive industry knowledge or experience, but I'm used to "all" meaning ALL in usage, not just "most."
Well, there was no way to know that it wasn't a serious observation. You could have used a smiley of some sort to show it was flippant.
But, I also did say that in the very cheapest portable devices, DVD players might still be used, though I really doubt it. Perhaps I was at fault for not being clearer.
What I meant was that all players in any general use category, such as computers, stand alone video players, Video receivers, and other video devices with any pretensions to quality, will be only using BR players as the price will be so low that it doesn't pay to use anything else, but that a few DVD player mechanisms that are so cheap to make might find their way into toy-like devices. CD players will still be around for a while.
Otherwise, manufacturers won't bother making DVD players anymore.
Quote:
I'm wasn't aware that huge amounts of people thought Blu-Ray players were too expensive vs. HD DVD... they sold pretty much in the same ballpark in my part of the world, all things considered. Almost anything Sony makes is sold at a premium, and with their players priced high, there's no reason for other BR players to be lower at this early stage of market development.
Oh yeah. Plenty of people still think that way, even though prices for both dropped greatly. Sony is only one of several manufacturers of BR players, unlike with HD-DVD, where Toshiba was the only manufacturer.
Quote:
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
I doubt very much that we will see another physical format. Though perhaps the 1440p format which is going to hit in 2010 might make it to disk. If it does, it will probably use the physical layer of BR, as BR has the space for the data, where HD-DVD didn't. Not on a single layer, at least, and just barely on two. It could be a firmware upgrade, or so people in the industry I know tell me.
Online downloads are here, but will be slow to catch on in a big way. To match the 1080p of BR, at a low compression rate is nigh impossible now. Perhaps by 2015 there will be enough people with a high enough bandwidth for it to be possible, but even then, demand should be small.
Quote:
Have a nice day... really, I mean it. My posts aren't meant as a personal attack.
Comments
Seeing as BR has region coding and extra drm on all of the new releases I will stick to downloading 1080p rips of them in the UK as I can't import them without having both a UK and US player (until such time a modded players become available). I also can't wait to get shafted as they will undoubtedly raise the price of BR movies seeing as there is no longer ANY competition.
This sucks.
34 inches, and he, no doubt, watches from 15 feet.
To be fair, for any HDTV 40 inches and up, I'd definitely want 1080p.
.
Oh well then..
Seeing as BR has region coding and extra drm on all of the new releases I will stick to downloading 1080p rips of them in the UK as I can't import them without having both a UK and US player (until such time a modded players become available). I also can't wait to get shafted as they will undoubtedly raise the price of BR movies seeing as there is no longer ANY competition.
This sucks.
You mean like it did with DVD? Oh wait, yeah it didn't.
Don't be so smug. It'll be good riddance Blu-ray sooner than you think. Now that Apple has downloadable HD movies , this is only the beginning. There should be a total convergence of HD over the internet in five years at which time the general public will finally have HDTVs and skip Blu-ray enitirely. People are not going to double dip their collections for yet another format that will eventually loose to downloads.
We're a fair distance off from people wanting to manage and collect 30 GB movie downloads.
Good luck enjoying Planet Earth as downloaded content.
You mean the same Steve Jobs who stated nobody wants to watch video on their iPod? The same Steve Jobs running Apple Inc. that now only offers one model of iPod that doesn't play video?
He told a long time ago now, that nobody buys it for the videos only. Intended that the main value i music and since i work in an Apple Center i can confirm it. The video is a good bonus but not the reason you buy an iPod in 90% of cases.
Well well, this the news I was waiting for. I'm still going to wait until prices drop below $200 for a player, and I don't even have an HDTV yet either. At least the format war and all the fan boys will fade away now...
I can understand your not buying it until you get a Hi Def Tv, why bother?
But, waiting for prices to drop further? How long will you wait? Until the holiday season? Sometime next year? Assuming you have a Hi Def Tv before then, and are willing to spend all that money, another $50-60 shouldn't make much difference.
If some people are so concerned about that small amount, how are they going to excuse paying $25-30 per movie?
Well well, this the news I was waiting for. I'm still going to wait until prices drop below $200 for a player, and I don't even have an HDTV yet either. At least the format war and all the fan boys will fade away now...
I'm in the same boat. I just can't see getting a HDTV or bluray player until they are much cheaper. When I do finally get them, it will probably be because my TV or dvd player broke and replacing them costs about what a DVD player would be. At that point, movies will probably be cheaper as well.
These things will be cheap eventually, for those of us who don't find them that compelling, why not wait until they are way cheaper than they are now?
I'm in the same boat. I just can't see getting a HDTV or bluray player until they are much cheaper. When I do finally get them, it will probably be because my TV or dvd player broke and replacing them costs about what a DVD player would be. At that point, movies will probably be cheaper as well.
These things will be cheap eventually, for those of us who don't find them that compelling, why not wait until they are way cheaper than they are now?
If they're not compelling, then it doesn't matter.
Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players. this is what many people are missing. It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models for portable all-in-one "boombox" like devices.
If they're not compelling, then it doesn't matter.
Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players. this is what many people are missing. It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models for portable all-in-one "boombox" like devices.
"all players will be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't."
Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players.
Actually, that's exactly my point. I'm sure I'll have bluray some day. But it will likely be because I'm replacing a DVD player and bluray is either about the same price, or the only thing available. Same goes for hdtv.
Actually, that's exactly my point. I'm sure I'll have bluray some day. But it will likely be because I'm replacing a DVD player and bluray is either about the same price, or the only thing available. Same goes for hdtv.
But it's not like VHS anymore... it took an insane amount of time for VHS VCRs to become ubiquitous in all households, and DVD had adoption rates far faster ( actual figures escape me but are available.)
Just because Blu-Ray won out over HD DVD doesn't mean that if you wait a couple years before buying one, it will be the only thing around. We'll be talking about the new format, twice as good, and we'll be wondering if we should buy it right away and enjoy it, or wait and see what comes next.
Damn, it's just like pushing that button on the store and buying a new Mac...
I'm not concerned about that. It didn't really matter. New tech always cost more in the beginning. Whether or not Toshiba pulled out, BD players would have continued to come down in price.
The cost of players had nothing to do with a format's acceptance by studios -- they KNOW prices will come down and adoption rates will increase. But Hollywierd is infamous for not going out on a limb if it means production cost could eat any of the profits. They like formulaic growth and return on investment; that's why so many movies suck.
It's just like building oil refineries, despite the fact they can't keep up with current demand. The oil companies won't build a $4 billion refinery that takes 3.5 - 5 years to get operational when they have no guarantee oil won't be selling for $60/barrel then and everybody will be driving Smart cars.
(if this doesn't generate off-topic commentary, nothing will.)
"all players will be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't."
That's a silly remark.
Blu-Ray will go the same way as DVD. Players will be extremely cheap. Right now, an OEM buyer can buy DVD players for $5 in quantities of 1,000. A bit less for much larger numbers. That will happen to BR as well. Do you doubt it? You shouldn't. The only ones that may not will be a few used in extremely cheap equipment that won't be usable with anything but the built-in screen.
And maybe, the players will be cheap enough that they will be used even there, because DVD players won't be made any more.
The cost of players had nothing to do with a format's acceptance by studios -- they KNOW prices will come down and adoption rates will increase. But Hollywierd is infamous for not going out on a limb if it means production cost could eat any of the profits. They like formulaic growth and return on investment; that's why so many movies suck.
It's just like building oil refineries, despite the fact they can't keep up with current demand. The oil companies won't build a $4 billion refinery that takes 3.5 - 5 years to get operational when they have no guarantee oil won't be selling for $60/barrel then and everybody will be driving Smart cars.
(if this doesn't generate off-topic commentary, nothing will.)
I didn't say that it did. I'm talking about people who have been saying that the initial price was too high, and thus wouldn't stand a chance against Hd-DVD. There have been plenty of those around, though many have now slunk off.
That's what you also said in your post, that Toshiba had that advantage. I never agreed that it was an advantage, and I was pointing out that even if it were, in the beginning, it would evaporate over time, so that it wouldn't matter.
Two years from now, most people won't even remember, and will wonder what all the fuss was all about, when they go to buy their new $75 player.
There should be a total convergence of HD over the internet in five years at which time the general public will finally have HDTVs and skip Blu-ray enitirely. People are not going to double dip their collections for yet another format that will eventually loose to downloads.
I believe your time line's off by a factor of at least two technologically and by more than that when you consider the behavior and resources of people in general as opposed to the technosenti. Listen to Leo Laporte's "Tech Guy" podcast and hear how many of the callers have questions about their Windows ME machines. So not just infrastructure challenges (upgrading essentially the entire internet -- widespread uncompressed real-time 1080p downloads are not arriving tomorrow) , but lots and lots of legacy hardware issues.
And tens of millions of people still don't use computers period, and tens of millions of those who do will NEVER download media of any kind from the net, using the digital beasts only for things they can't practically do another way (e.g., email, free streaming YouTube (and, yes, porn) or that they have to do (work-related computing).
And for some "browsing" through a bookshelf of (or a brick and mortar store full of) physical media and physically holding a few in their hands as they pick will be a more ego-syntonic experience than clicking or scrolling through screens of them. I'm a major comic book geek for decades, and while I know there's lots of great new material on the net with no bandwidth or cost issues, I almost never read online comics, nor do I expect to do so.
You fought a good fight, Toshiba. Your consumer players were technically superior from day 1, offering picture-in-picture support, ethernet connectivity, and advanced interactivity....
Woulda been shoulda been.
Sony learned plenty from the Betamax - VHS war which *they* lost despite having a technically superior product. Sony management didn't forget that the company with a strategy which clearly recognizes market share rules will be the victor; thus, history didn't repeat itself.
Who are these people that always think Betamax was technically superior? Why? Because it offered 10 more lines of resolution? Great. I'll take 10 LESS lines of resolution and have a medium that I can use for more than an hour.
Just for the record, Sony WAS catching up on the cartridge capacity, but too little too late, and they did make sure not to be behind on that this time as noted above.
And after BetaMax, Memory Sticks, ATrac, MiniDiscs, etc., etc. I guess Sony was due to win ONE standards war.... ...or people are getting smarter (??) since both iPods/iTunes and Blu-Ray are recent winners with arguably superior tech. Although this time, as noted, Sony took care to seed the market with players and, unlike what MOSTLY killed Betamax, first with larger capacity (even while lagging in tech extras in the beginning).
You offered a superior product at a lower price (even before all the deep discounts leading up to Xmas), but unfortunately, Sony's Playstation 3 trojan horse strategy put considerably more Blu-Ray players in the market, which led to considerably higher Blu-Ray disc sales, which led to Warner's decision to go Blu-Ray exclusive, which led to the Netflix, Best-Buy and Walmart defections, which led to the death in the format.
Had Microsoft built HD-DVD in the Xbox 360, this story would have ended a different way...
Good pick Bill and Steve! (Of course they can just start tacking BR players as 360 add-ons in place of the HD-DVD players and only their early adopters will suffer)
I don't really understand why people are looking so desperately to a day when downloadable content trumps everything else. Don't get me wrong, it has its place: I would gladly rather "rent" a movie online than wait for Netflix to ship it to me, but for the content I want to OWN, physical media will always be better.
What about portability? It's easy as pie to bring a movie to a friends' house or on a trip with a disc... just pop it in a player and you're good to go. Once the DRM-laden file is downloaded to your computer, however, what are you going to do with it? Burn it to Blu-ray? Haha...
Yup.
Millions wasted because they couldn't agree on one standard as they did with DVD.
...and think how much more "unified" computing would be if the market had rid us of that pesky Macintosh competitor to Windows......
Wasted? Maybe. Or maybe the race made both better until the winner emerged, and now the BR camp will complacently stick to their laurels, unless they feel the spur of downloads pushing them to stay relevant.
Competition between producers almost always ultimately benefits consumers in terms of product quality, innovation, durability and price, except of course the early adopters who pick the wrong horse. I follow tech avidly, but seldom choose to be a pioneer. Those who do I often admire, and if there were none, no new tech would ever be successfully rolled out, but they should be prepared to suffer the fate of pioneers without whining: more arrows in the back than those who wait for the frontier to be semi-tamed.
Meanwhile, I hope some of those folks are getting ready to plunk down big bucks on infant UHDV to help get it ready for second and third wave buyers like me.....
Just because Blu-Ray won out over HD DVD doesn't mean that if you wait a couple years before buying one, it will be the only thing around.
Down the road, when the cost of a bluray player is about what we're paying now for a DVD player, why would anyone buy a DVD player? Even if you just plan on watching dvds, you can do that with the new player. And why would a manufacturer bother making dvd players at the point where making bluray is almost as cheap?
Look at cdrom/dvd in computers. Once dvd got dirt cheap, were there many cdrom players still being made or sold? Same with writable, once that got cheap, were there many read-only drives sold? Even if people have no intention of using the extra features, if the better unit is really cheap, why not just get it?
I didn't say that it did. I'm talking about people who have been saying that the initial price was too high, and thus wouldn't stand a chance against Hd-DVD. There have been plenty of those around, though many have now slunk off.
That's what you also said in your post, that Toshiba had that advantage. I never agreed that it was an advantage, and I was pointing out that even if it were, in the beginning, it would evaporate over time, so that it wouldn't matter.
Two years from now, most people won't even remember, and will wonder what all the fuss was all about, when they go to buy their new $75 player.
I NEVER said Toshiba had an advantage, I merely commented to the forum what I heard and read so many industry speculators and pundits say: that HD DVD would probably have the inside track to STUDIO adoption because disc production would cost less, making HD DVDs more profitable to them, thereby gaining rapid support by STUDIOS over Blu-Ray in the critical period of early adoption and marketability. For whatever reason, it was the studios bailing on HD DVD that brought the format down, not the consumer retailers. They likely saw early consumer stats, got nervous, and went with Blu-Ray. This was probably helped along by Sony being a major film production company as well as a hardware production company, which Toshiba was not.
And it was YOU who said "Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players... It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models.."
I merely paraphrased your post into "all disc players would be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't," as a flippant observation I'm prone to making when I come across comments that state how ALL of anything will be one version, and then go on to outline the exceptions to their own rule. I may not have your impressive industry knowledge or experience, but I'm used to "all" meaning ALL in usage, not just "most."
I'm wasn't aware that huge amounts of people thought Blu-Ray players were too expensive vs. HD DVD... they sold pretty much in the same ballpark in my part of the world, all things considered. Almost anything Sony makes is sold at a premium, and with their players priced high, there's no reason for other BR players to be lower at this early stage of market development.
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
Have a nice day... really, I mean it. My posts aren't meant as a personal attack.
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
I'm very doubtful that we'll ever see a physical media format for video to replace bluray. Many people are perfectly happy with DVD already and see no need to upgrade to bluray. Any format beyond bluray will face even more of an attitude of who needs it?
I think we'll see a similar situation to CDs. They invented a new, better format, but people didn't perceive enough of an improvement to bother switching. And then online music came along and took over - we may see new audio formats, but they will just be file formats and software based. With bluray, I think people see some improvement, it's just a question of how much it's worth paying extra for. The generation after that, I don't think there will be enough people seeing an improvement (or able to afford screens giant enough to see the difference) for it to become a viable format.
People don't want increasingly better formats over and over again. At some point, they are happy with what they see and hear and have no desire for anything better (at some point you reach the limits of human perception and improvements are imperceptible).
I wonder if the same will happen with game consoles, if we'll reach a point where graphics are pretty much photorealistic and people would be happy keeping the machine and just getting new content for years to come.
I NEVER said Toshiba had an advantage, I merely commented to the forum what I heard and read so many industry speculators and pundits say: that HD DVD would probably have the inside track to STUDIO adoption because disc production would cost less, making HD DVDs more profitable to them, thereby gaining rapid support by STUDIOS over Blu-Ray in the critical period of early adoption and marketability. For whatever reason, it was the studios bailing on HD DVD that brought the format down, not the consumer retailers. They likely saw early consumer stats, got nervous, and went with Blu-Ray. This was probably helped along by Sony being a major film production company as well as a hardware production company, which Toshiba was not.
If that's what you're saying, fine, but that's not HOW you said it. Your first sentence was;
I'm not tech-spec qualified to vouch for superiority of one format over another, but the one thing that was decidedly in Toshiba's favor in the early days was the HUGE point that HD DVDs could be manufactured in existing DVD manufacturing facilities, with little change in the lines and equipment investment;
That's how you put it. It wasn't that the industry thought that way. You said, later in the post, that the content companies may have thought that.
The first quote very much read like your opinion. If not, then you've clarified it.
And it was YOU who said "Eventually, all players will be Blu-Ray players... It might happen in a year, but it will surely happen in two years, except for the very cheapest models.."
Yes, I'm not denying that. I stand by it. Why do you think I denied it? I understand what you mean though.
I merely paraphrased your post into "all disc players would be Blu-Ray except the ones that aren't," as a flippant observation I'm prone to making when I come across comments that state how ALL of anything will be one version, and then go on to outline the exceptions to their own rule. I may not have your impressive industry knowledge or experience, but I'm used to "all" meaning ALL in usage, not just "most."
Well, there was no way to know that it wasn't a serious observation. You could have used a smiley of some sort to show it was flippant.
But, I also did say that in the very cheapest portable devices, DVD players might still be used, though I really doubt it. Perhaps I was at fault for not being clearer.
What I meant was that all players in any general use category, such as computers, stand alone video players, Video receivers, and other video devices with any pretensions to quality, will be only using BR players as the price will be so low that it doesn't pay to use anything else, but that a few DVD player mechanisms that are so cheap to make might find their way into toy-like devices. CD players will still be around for a while.
Otherwise, manufacturers won't bother making DVD players anymore.
I'm wasn't aware that huge amounts of people thought Blu-Ray players were too expensive vs. HD DVD... they sold pretty much in the same ballpark in my part of the world, all things considered. Almost anything Sony makes is sold at a premium, and with their players priced high, there's no reason for other BR players to be lower at this early stage of market development.
Oh yeah. Plenty of people still think that way, even though prices for both dropped greatly. Sony is only one of several manufacturers of BR players, unlike with HD-DVD, where Toshiba was the only manufacturer.
It's my belief that when/if Blu-Ray players are $75 on the shelf, they'll likely be on the bottom shelf, with the players of whatever new format physical media is the rage selling for $450 to $900. I don't believe we'll see "download" HD content replacing physical media in the near future because there are large populations of consistent content consumers that don't want the added hassle of online activity, don't have cost-effective access to broadband delivery, or just decide to buy a movie to watch on Saturday at WalMart without needing a computer or internet-accessible delivery mechanism getting between them and the popcorn bowl. Those of us regular internet users tend to discount the buying habits of millions who still prefer to shop in a store.
I doubt very much that we will see another physical format. Though perhaps the 1440p format which is going to hit in 2010 might make it to disk. If it does, it will probably use the physical layer of BR, as BR has the space for the data, where HD-DVD didn't. Not on a single layer, at least, and just barely on two. It could be a firmware upgrade, or so people in the industry I know tell me.
Online downloads are here, but will be slow to catch on in a big way. To match the 1080p of BR, at a low compression rate is nigh impossible now. Perhaps by 2015 there will be enough people with a high enough bandwidth for it to be possible, but even then, demand should be small.
Have a nice day... really, I mean it. My posts aren't meant as a personal attack.
Same here.