Gartner analyst stokes 3G iPhone rumors

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
An analyst for market research firm Gartner said Tuesday he believes Apple to have placed orders for 10 million 3G iPhones which would employ a more modern form of display screen that could pave the way for a slimmer handset with improved battery life.



Ken Dulaney, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, made the comments in a phone interview with the iPodObserver following a revised recommendation from his firm blessing the current version of the Apple handset for use within the enterprise.



The order of 10 million 3G iPhones -- a model that will take advantage of third-generation wireless networks and perform some Internet functions up to ten times as fast as the current 2.5G/EDGE-based model -- is said to be in addition to the 10 million first-generation units Apple plans to sell by year's end.



Dulaney's prediction, which is admittedly based on "rumors" overheard in Asia, would appear to support a common theory that the Cupertino-based company will continue to market its first-generation iPhone at a greatly reduced cost once the 3G model hits the market.



On average, analysts on Wall Street are forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones for the first calendar quarter of 2008, which would leave Apple some catching up to do if it intends to meet or beat its self-imposed goal of selling 10 million units by year's end.



For its part, however, the company's management has frequently and earnestly reiterated confidence in besting that goal, suggesting a catalyst to spur demand -- such as new models and price drops on old models -- lay in the wings.



In speaking to the iPodObserver on Tuesday, Dulaney also speculated that that the "so-called 3G iPhone" will use an extremely pricey and cutting-edge Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLED) display, which could both improve battery life and lead to a slimmer phone.



Though not as widely proven as traditional LCD screens like those used in the current iPhone, OLED displays do not require a backlight to function. As a result, they draw far less power and, when powered from a battery, can operate longer on the same charge. The absence of a backlight also means that OLED displays can be much thinner than LCDs.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    The order of 10 million 3G iPhones ....... is said to be in addition to the 10 million first-generation units Apple plans to sell by year's end.



    His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?
  • Reply 2 of 77
    kasperkasper Posts: 940member, administrator
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    His rumor/speculation sounds awfully specific. I doubt now that 3G is going to happen in June. I wonder if it could be next MWSF's big splash in Jan 09?



    There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P



    That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.



    Best,



    K
  • Reply 3 of 77
    satchmosatchmo Posts: 2,699member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kasper View Post


    There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P



    That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.



    Best,



    K



    Agreed. It's typical Apple strategy to flood the market like they did with the iPod. However, keeping the old model is a new twist, but frankly brilliant if it brings the price point down to say $250.



    IMO, a new 3G model is absolutely necessary for Apple to reach their 10m target. This along with the official SDK, app store and discounted first gen iPhone will get them there.
  • Reply 4 of 77
    mr omr o Posts: 1,043member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kasper View Post


    There's no way Apple is going to give Android-based 3G handsets a six-month head start when they are already ahead of the game right now =P



    That would be a lot of control to relinquish and I'm pretty confident that is not in Apple's playbook. I believe we'll have the official word on a 3G iPhone within 2-4 months.



    Best,



    K



    It could coincide with the announced iPhone enterprise software update at the upcoming Macworld in June. Also, we belgians expect to embrace the iPhone legally around Summer time.



    I hope the new 3G phone will get rid of 1/ the black chin, 2/ the Nokia chrome edge and 3/ the brick styling in favour of a more sensual Macbook Air style approach.
  • Reply 5 of 77
    http://www.engadget.com/2006/04/26/a...ng-lcd-pixels/



    Sorry for the external link there, but I just thought maybe this talk of new screen tech could be something to do with Apples ancient patent on embedding video receiving pixels into LCDs. That would be some fancy video call action.
  • Reply 6 of 77
    danukdanuk Posts: 31member
    Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.



    Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).



    I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?
  • Reply 7 of 77
    Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?
  • Reply 8 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post


    Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?



    the sony oled hdtv has a contrast ratio of over 1,000,000: 1...I would say that it looks pretty nice
  • Reply 9 of 77
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,946member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post


    Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?



    OLED doesn't need backlighting, that's the entire point. Each element generates its own light rather than trying to block a backlight.
  • Reply 10 of 77
    blascockblascock Posts: 153member
    I was going to buy an iphone this week, 16 gigs... should I wait for this one??
  • Reply 11 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DanUK View Post


    Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.



    Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).



    I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?



    I would agree if putting an OLED display in an iPhone was Apple's first venture into OLED displays, however they have already put them in notebooks, so this wouldn't be an unproven thing.



    Also, high on Apple's priority list are making the device thinner and improving battery life. An OLED display is one of the few things that can accomplish both of these things. The next iPhone will probably be $599 for a 32gb and $499 for a 16gb, so we'll be paying the premium either way.
  • Reply 12 of 77
    drjjonesdrjjones Posts: 162member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dave Marsh View Post


    Can anyone offer the relative brightness of the OLED technology compared to backlit LCDs? One of the nicest features of the iPhone is its bright/sharp screen. Can a non-backlit OLED screen match that?



    it would be a game changer . i'd sell mine in a minute
  • Reply 13 of 77
    Seeing as how the iPhone has been altogether different in strategy (where Apple has been extremely aggressive compared to other product growth models, having learned from the iPods), it seems like they'll take the price of the iPhone-EDGE down to 199 and 299, perhaps only sold on contract to prop up income? And, intro the new iPhone-3G at $399 & $499. Two models to hit the lower end, and try to crush the Pearl/Centro. (this is the iPhone nano?) Two models to rock the high end.



    It will also be interesting to see how (if the OLED rumor is true), if they split some of that space savings up for more storage & battery. I'm not sure that most people would appreciate 1-2 mm thinner iPhone with the same battery life, and with the entry of the SDK, I can only imagine they'll want more power & flash.



    It sounds like the iPhone EDGE was meant for a 10-12 million production run. They could either EOL it, or taper down production with demand and a future iPhone-#3.



    My question is, will they be exclusively wed to AT & T with iPhone-3G? Sounds like AT&T is committed to 3G, so I can't imagine they'd set themselves up to be stood-up.



    Another question is, which processor will be in the 3G? With the SDK, I imagine a faster more powerful processor will be a welcome change, and perhaps the 3G will permit SDK background apps?
  • Reply 14 of 77
    Apple has said repeatedly that it's goal is to sell 10 million phone "in calendar 2008". They have never said "by the end of 2008". The biggest misquote of the year.



    I haven't heard any analysts predicting over 2 million phones for this quarter, certainly not "forecasting sales of just over 2 million iPhones".



    You imply that Apple has placed orders for 10 million phones on top of the 10 million it plans to sell "by years end". Uh, no, Apple has not placed an order for something they plan to ship 9 months from now.
  • Reply 15 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    OLED doesn't need backlighting, that's the entire point. Each element generates its own light rather than trying to block a backlight.



    Aren't they using the OLED in MacBook Pro's as a backlight? Most of the savings is from moving from a cold cathode fluorescent, while also being brighter.



    I would imagine this is what they're doing...



    my 2¢
  • Reply 16 of 77
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,946member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blascock View Post


    I was going to buy an iphone this week, 16 gigs... should I wait for this one??



    Do you really need it now? Do you think you can wait? I figure there's going to be an update last day of June, when the original was introduced was first sold last year, or in September / October, when they typically update their iPods.
  • Reply 17 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by randomthot View Post


    Aren't they using the OLED in MacBook Pro's as a backlight? Most of the savings is from moving from a cold cathode fluorescent, while also being brighter.



    I would imagine this is what they're doing...



    my 2¢



    No, they're using LED backlights, which is not the same as OLED.
  • Reply 18 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by satchmo View Post


    IMO, a new 3G model is absolutely necessary for Apple to reach their 10m target. This along with the official SDK, app store and discounted first gen iPhone will get them there.



    It seems to me that whoever is behind SJ helping with the "business plan" is a fargin genius. It's not some willy-nilly just toss out our new product kind of thing. Everything Apple does in the public realm is well-planned and strategically thought out. They definitely have their fingers on the pulse of the consumer at this point. I know i don't usually throw props like this, and am more of a cynic, but they really deserve the credit for being "psychic" about what the public wants. "ALL HAIL APPLE!". (oh, and thanks for the stock going up again too)



    fARG
  • Reply 19 of 77
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lunchy View Post


    No, they're using LED backlights, which is not the same as OLED.



    ah...thx! my mistake
  • Reply 20 of 77
    mh71mh71 Posts: 44member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DanUK View Post


    Even with the price of OLEDs falling, surely they are still too expensive and unproven to go into the next iPhone revision.



    Apple do not historically jump on the bandwagon so early, rather wait until the waters are calmer and then implement it better than the competition (I am writing this now and thinking of several exceptions to this statement e.g. multitouch screen).



    I think the observations above regarding not letting Android get a clear run-out are very astute and could well have made Apple change it's product time-line. It also makes sense to keep the current iteration as a lower priced model. Is the current NYC shortage of supply a coincidence?



    I think you are right about Apple not jumping on the bandwagon early. When they do it though, they have a high confidence level in what they are doing, eg Penryn.



    As far as the multitouch goes, it's just a (much) better implementation of a normal stylus and touchscreen setup.



    It's too early for the NYC shortages to be coincidental. There has been no news out of the FCC about a new iPhone. And for something that big, there would have to be a leak or mention of some kind. We're still a couple of months away, at a minimum.
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