Does anyone know how much longer the AT&T contract with Apple is? I think it was something like 5 years...Maybe Apple should break their contract and open it up to all carriers. I don't have have an iphone because I'm halfway into a 2 year contract with Sprint....
Its been reported at 5 years. But I've never heard it officially confirmed.
Apple established the exclusive deals so that the it could negotiate the plans the iPhone would be sold under. It also gives Apple a stable partner as it builds the iPhone platform.
The chances of the iPhone going to Sprint are slim to none. Sprint is hemorrhaging its customer base. Sprints 4G plans are WiMax. While everyone else are planning to use LTE.
Rarely we see the analysts consider many future aspects of technology and distribution. With today's iPhone and countries that number is unachievable, but with a cheaper model, 3G model and many more countries it is not.
China has an emerging middle class. These people will eat up the iPhone and otherwestern items and not local knockoff, even they manufactured on home soil. We've seen it many times before.
Also, we don't the profit-sharing criteria. Is it every phone Apple produces for x many years? Will Apple use a loophole to screw over AT&T?
With the version 2 software and 3G imminent most people's complaints are solved. The last remaining issue is the price. How many US citizens are going to use their $600 on bills and not something non-essential? I know several who have expressed get a 3G iPhone with their refund.
PS: I what at WMC in Miami this past week and saw iPhones everywhere. Though, the city is
pretty fashionable. With 30% of the antendees not from the States I wonder if some used the event as an opportunity to get a cheap iPhone.
this analysis is based on [what we know is inevitable, but still] RUMORS of a 3G iPhone, imaginary new models of iPhone, price breaks based on what the iPod did 5 years ago, and sales figures based on the iPod [but only after year three]. these are cell phones, not pmp's. so let's take a 409% growth and say it's 304%. awesome.
i want this job. even weathermen need to be more accurate than this.
45 million is maybe 4% of China's total population, not a quarter. And China is about 1/6th the global population. 45 million might be about 3% of the market (maybe 1.5B phones sold in 2009), taking about a third of the high end.
I don't think it's a new number for 2009, I think I dismissed it last year, but maybe it's doable. As the cost goes down and new models are added to add the features that are being requested, and it's officially distributed in more countries, I really don't see that number being a big problem.
Right now, I'm mostly waiting for my current contract to expire, I'm sure that by the time that happens, just about everything I want will be available.
I doubt Gene has ever been to China, so he's unaware of what Apple faces once they hammer out an agreement.
For the record, Gene's prediction, the way I read it, is more bold than this. He's estimating 45 million iPhones to be sold IN 2009, not by the end of 2009. He's modeling Apple to sell that many in 12 months...
Best,
K
Why must we perpetuate the hairsplitting? "In" is the same thing as "by the end of". Don't feed the loons.
Why would communist China want to buy the very product they make at a much higher price? Correct me if wrong... but doesn't owner ship and things like patents go against their ideals? There will be nothing to stop them from knocking off the iPhone, and then having China mobile use that!
China is not really communist any more. They joined the World Trade Organization
in 2001 and must obey (or at least give the appearance of obeying) things like
intellectual property or face sanctions from other member countries, whose commerce
Rarely we see the analysts consider many future aspects of technology and distribution. With today's iPhone and countries that number is unachievable, but with a cheaper model, 3G model and many more countries it is not.
China has an emerging middle class. These people will eat up the iPhone and otherwestern items and not local knockoff as relatively low cost status items, even if they manufactured on home soil. We've seen it many times before.
Also, we don't the profit-sharing criteria. Is it every phone Apple produces for x many years? Will Apple use a loophole to screw over AT&T?
With the version 2 software and 3G imminent most people's complaints are solved. The last remaining issue is the price. How many US citizens are going to use their $600 on bills and not something non-essential? I know several who have expressed get a 3G iPhone with their refund.
PS: I what at WMC in Miami this past week and saw iPhones everywhere. Though, the city is
pretty fashionable. With 30% of the antendees not from the States I wonder if some used the event as an opportunity to get a cheap iPhone.
Its been reported at 5 years. But I've never heard it officially confirmed.
Apple established the exclusive deals so that the it could negotiate the plans the iPhone would be sold under. It also gives the Apple a stable partner as it builds the iPhone platform.
The chances of the iPhone going to Sprint are slim to none. Sprint is hemorrhaging its customer base. Sprints 4G plans are WiMax. While everyone else are planning to use LTE.
Don't forget, Intel and Google are also supporting WiMax. Not insignificant partners.
I too am an appl share holder and a life long apple customer. I just recently damaged the screen on my iphone which does not necessarily interfere with the operations of the iphone however I went to my local apple store last week and requested a replacement since I have apple care... The staff member told me that it would cost $250 for the replacement unit which sounded like a fair price however I opted for a new one so I requested to be sold a new unit however the staff member then told me that much how the Burger Kind ad went - they were out of the whopper (iphones) and this was the same thing for all the Miami stores... I then realized how much demand these iphones have...
My guess is that estimate is weak compared to what is really going on in the market - I expect 45m to be beat easily by 2009...
the reason rumors are building up is BECAUSE iphone manufacturing plans are building up, as we get closer and closer more and more "will be heard". i don't know about mega millions but how many are holding out for the 3g and sdk software. i believe there is a critical mass developing and will set off this june. i bought aapl at 124 how about another split apple. do you want to collaborate this watch RIM and see what they are doing....since they are delving deeper into the "rumors" to combat this "perfect storm" so what is rim doing hmmmm
Not because you read hype and speculation. Stay steadfast in your course and conviction, which should be understanding and realistic. You will then, be up big time on your investment which will definitely take some time to be huge. Huge it will be without doubt.
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long, but the free ride is over. (Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is, nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be). Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
As a result, China Mobile appears unwilling to pay the monthly revenue sharing of approximately $15 per month which Munster estimates other exclusive iPhone carriers are currently paying Apple. In time, that may force the company to alter its strategy of signing exclusive revenue sharing agreements with its partners in Asia, which he believes will enable it to sell the iPhone in China by the middle of next year.
In support of this theory, the analyst pointed to recent comments from chief operating officer Tim Cook, who revealed at an investor conference last month that Apple is "not married to any business model" and is instead "married to ... shipping the best phones in the world."
In the event that Apple does forgo its present revenue share model and exclusive carrier relationships, it would likely seek a one-time subsidy from each carrier per iPhone sold.
"We believe the early hype surrounding the launch of the iPhone enabled Apple to garner steep revenue sharing agreements for the 'must have' device from the initial carriers like AT&T, O2, and T-Mobile," Munster said. "However, as the iPhone becomes an established player in the mobile phone market and competitive offerings become available, Apple may not be able to command the exclusive agreements with high revenue sharing plans as it did initially."
There are lots of things that Apple SHOULD do to be competitive in the market. But it is not.
Is it an analyst work to speculate, or should a stock analyst rely on known facts to analyse them?
The problem with euphoric speculation passing off as an analyst's view is that it lends the foundation for repeated "pump and dump" stock operations by Apple insiders, leaving no incentive to actually build up Apple market share by adopting a competitive price policy and new marketing initiatives.
Not because you read hype and speculation. Stay steadfast in your course and conviction, which should be understanding and realistic. You will then, be up big time on your investment which will definitely take some time to be huge. Huge it will be without doubt.
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long..Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be . Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
Many of you are you failing to grasp the size of the mobile phone market and the likely growth curve of the iPhone. By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled. 45 million phones IN 2009 is probably quite conservative. I'd say it will be nearer 60.
The problem with euphoric speculation passing off as an analyst's view is that it lends the foundation for repeated "pump and dump" stock operations by Apple insiders, leaving no incentive to actually build up Apple market share by adopting a competitive price policy and new marketing initiatives.
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Many of you are you failing to grasp the size of the mobile phone market and the likely growth curve of the iPhone. By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled. 45 million phones IN 2009 is probably quite conservative. I'd say it will be nearer 60.
Notice that Gene Munster maintained the price target for Apple at $250 -- even though he raised the iphone sales target by several fold.
That's not saying much --- Munster might as well say that he expects Apple to sell 1 billion iphones because he expects Apple to drop the iphone price to $1.
Comments
Does anyone know how much longer the AT&T contract with Apple is? I think it was something like 5 years...Maybe Apple should break their contract and open it up to all carriers. I don't have have an iphone because I'm halfway into a 2 year contract with Sprint....
Its been reported at 5 years. But I've never heard it officially confirmed.
Apple established the exclusive deals so that the it could negotiate the plans the iPhone would be sold under. It also gives Apple a stable partner as it builds the iPhone platform.
The chances of the iPhone going to Sprint are slim to none. Sprint is hemorrhaging its customer base. Sprints 4G plans are WiMax. While everyone else are planning to use LTE.
China has an emerging middle class. These people will eat up the iPhone and otherwestern items and not local knockoff, even they manufactured on home soil. We've seen it many times before.
Also, we don't the profit-sharing criteria. Is it every phone Apple produces for x many years? Will Apple use a loophole to screw over AT&T?
With the version 2 software and 3G imminent most people's complaints are solved. The last remaining issue is the price. How many US citizens are going to use their $600 on bills and not something non-essential? I know several who have expressed get a 3G iPhone with their refund.
PS: I what at WMC in Miami this past week and saw iPhones everywhere. Though, the city is
pretty fashionable. With 30% of the antendees not from the States I wonder if some used the event as an opportunity to get a cheap iPhone.
sent from my iPhone
this analysis is based on [what we know is inevitable, but still] RUMORS of a 3G iPhone, imaginary new models of iPhone, price breaks based on what the iPod did 5 years ago, and sales figures based on the iPod [but only after year three]. these are cell phones, not pmp's. so let's take a 409% growth and say it's 304%. awesome.
i want this job. even weathermen need to be more accurate than this.
45m iPhones by 2009? Keep dreaming!
As an Apple stockholder, I'd love that to happen, but this is simply blowing smoke and grabbing headlines.
We're lucky if we make the 10m mark for 2008. Plus much of this speculation is contingent on China getting on board.
Munster is out of his frickin' mind. Good thing I'm not paying for his "analyses".
45 million is maybe 4% of China's total population, not a quarter. And China is about 1/6th the global population. 45 million might be about 3% of the market (maybe 1.5B phones sold in 2009), taking about a third of the high end.
I don't think it's a new number for 2009, I think I dismissed it last year, but maybe it's doable. As the cost goes down and new models are added to add the features that are being requested, and it's officially distributed in more countries, I really don't see that number being a big problem.
Right now, I'm mostly waiting for my current contract to expire, I'm sure that by the time that happens, just about everything I want will be available.
I doubt Gene has ever been to China, so he's unaware of what Apple faces once they hammer out an agreement.
For the record, Gene's prediction, the way I read it, is more bold than this. He's estimating 45 million iPhones to be sold IN 2009, not by the end of 2009. He's modeling Apple to sell that many in 12 months...
Best,
K
Why must we perpetuate the hairsplitting? "In" is the same thing as "by the end of". Don't feed the loons.
Why would communist China want to buy the very product they make at a much higher price? Correct me if wrong... but doesn't owner ship and things like patents go against their ideals? There will be nothing to stop them from knocking off the iPhone, and then having China mobile use that!
China is not really communist any more. They joined the World Trade Organization
in 2001 and must obey (or at least give the appearance of obeying) things like
intellectual property or face sanctions from other member countries, whose commerce
supports China's economic health.
27 million iPhones will be sold in 2008.
I'll see your 27 million and raise you 60 million!
China has an emerging middle class. These people will eat up the iPhone and otherwestern items and not local knockoff as relatively low cost status items, even if they manufactured on home soil. We've seen it many times before.
Also, we don't the profit-sharing criteria. Is it every phone Apple produces for x many years? Will Apple use a loophole to screw over AT&T?
With the version 2 software and 3G imminent most people's complaints are solved. The last remaining issue is the price. How many US citizens are going to use their $600 on bills and not something non-essential? I know several who have expressed get a 3G iPhone with their refund.
PS: I what at WMC in Miami this past week and saw iPhones everywhere. Though, the city is
pretty fashionable. With 30% of the antendees not from the States I wonder if some used the event as an opportunity to get a cheap iPhone.
sent from my iPhone
Its been reported at 5 years. But I've never heard it officially confirmed.
Apple established the exclusive deals so that the it could negotiate the plans the iPhone would be sold under. It also gives the Apple a stable partner as it builds the iPhone platform.
The chances of the iPhone going to Sprint are slim to none. Sprint is hemorrhaging its customer base. Sprints 4G plans are WiMax. While everyone else are planning to use LTE.
Don't forget, Intel and Google are also supporting WiMax. Not insignificant partners.
My guess is that estimate is weak compared to what is really going on in the market - I expect 45m to be beat easily by 2009...
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long, but the free ride is over. (Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is, nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be). Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
Don't doubt Apple - it is for real.
Will Apple use a loophole to screw over AT&T?
[/I]
Perhaps the existing agreement doesn't cover 3G phones.
I'll see your 27 million and raise you 60 million!
Pretty funny.
I can't believe people are actually falling for this nonsense as if it could really happen.
45 million sales during the 12 months of 2009?
No matter what, it ain't going to happen.
You're simply not going to get everyone that would buy an iPod to buy an iPhone instead.
Gene has you all roped and doped, forget it and move on.
As a result, China Mobile appears unwilling to pay the monthly revenue sharing of approximately $15 per month which Munster estimates other exclusive iPhone carriers are currently paying Apple. In time, that may force the company to alter its strategy of signing exclusive revenue sharing agreements with its partners in Asia, which he believes will enable it to sell the iPhone in China by the middle of next year.
In support of this theory, the analyst pointed to recent comments from chief operating officer Tim Cook, who revealed at an investor conference last month that Apple is "not married to any business model" and is instead "married to ... shipping the best phones in the world."
In the event that Apple does forgo its present revenue share model and exclusive carrier relationships, it would likely seek a one-time subsidy from each carrier per iPhone sold.
"We believe the early hype surrounding the launch of the iPhone enabled Apple to garner steep revenue sharing agreements for the 'must have' device from the initial carriers like AT&T, O2, and T-Mobile," Munster said. "However, as the iPhone becomes an established player in the mobile phone market and competitive offerings become available, Apple may not be able to command the exclusive agreements with high revenue sharing plans as it did initially."
There are lots of things that Apple SHOULD do to be competitive in the market. But it is not.
Is it an analyst work to speculate, or should a stock analyst rely on known facts to analyse them?
The problem with euphoric speculation passing off as an analyst's view is that it lends the foundation for repeated "pump and dump" stock operations by Apple insiders, leaving no incentive to actually build up Apple market share by adopting a competitive price policy and new marketing initiatives.
Not because you read hype and speculation. Stay steadfast in your course and conviction, which should be understanding and realistic. You will then, be up big time on your investment which will definitely take some time to be huge. Huge it will be without doubt.
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long..Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be . Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
Don't doubt Apple - it is for real.
Werd.
The problem with euphoric speculation passing off as an analyst's view is that it lends the foundation for repeated "pump and dump" stock operations by Apple insiders, leaving no incentive to actually build up Apple market share by adopting a competitive price policy and new marketing initiatives.
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Many of you are you failing to grasp the size of the mobile phone market and the likely growth curve of the iPhone. By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled. 45 million phones IN 2009 is probably quite conservative. I'd say it will be nearer 60.
Notice that Gene Munster maintained the price target for Apple at $250 -- even though he raised the iphone sales target by several fold.
That's not saying much --- Munster might as well say that he expects Apple to sell 1 billion iphones because he expects Apple to drop the iphone price to $1.