According to my friend in China, iPhone (at $500 to $600 street price), is significantly cheaper than other smart phones. Four of his friends asked him to bring iPhones on his last trip (but Apple Store only allows him to get two).
One good think about cell phone market is that people are used to get a new one every two years, even in US.
More specifically, the analyst expects a 3G model to arrive in June followed by a "perhaps more significant" introduction of a model by next year that will be priced between $200 and $300, addressing a more price sensitive market.
Ideal for a country with a market as big as China's, no 3G or a possibility of revenue sharing with Apple.
By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled.
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Does anyone know how much longer the AT&T contract with Apple is? I think it was something like 5 years...
It's a rumor and speculation, not a fact that's known with certainty.
Quote:
Maybe Apple should break their contract and open it up to all carriers. I don't have have an iphone because I'm halfway into a 2 year contract with Sprint....
That would be nice, but so far, Apple has not shown any interest in making a CDMA phone. Right now, you have to change carriers just to use the Phone, because it's only available in a GSM version.
Quote:
This exclusive tying of a product to 1 carrier seems like an outdated model anyways...
We don't know if it was required by ATT to get Apple what they want.
Realistic expectations are that 5 out of 10 will need 2 iphones purchased at MSRP per year realistically.
How? Simple people loose their phones all the time and when you have the best you will continue to buy the best it is a fact of life...
Do a simple estimate of how much cash you contribute to apple per month... Include itunes purchases, iphone shins or covers, and anything else apple sells... This tells you you are dependent on a company that helps make your life easier technically. Now imagine all those that do the same as you... If you have 2 friends that do the same imagine the rest of the world...
My old mad drives a cab - the last thing someone left was an iphone - hacked and all.
I am not sure if the stock price will go as high as they predict however I can say as apple continues to do the right thing with their products they will continue to make you even more dependent of their offerings.
I think apple will go into the PVR/DVR market soon and with that having been said it is the complete offering for the apple tv product evolved. Will they bid on a cable provider or something else? Not sure... Will apple become a carrier? Maybe look at how google is going after spacedata - or is it sky data... not sure balloons that carry signals from space - they can launch a carrier operations over night well almost...
Apple is and will continue to innovate - question is what is next and who will do who...
Google and apple are key to future growth beyond the software and hardware schema...
Many of you are you failing to grasp the size of the mobile phone market and the likely growth curve of the iPhone. By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled. 45 million phones IN 2009 is probably quite conservative. I'd say it will be nearer 60.
Gonna knock your socks off when they tell you the earnings and sales on April 23rd. 60 is a better guess than 45 . Either way , computer sales are great and they are 60 percent of revenue. I'll sell in December before they go down again in January through March as they do each year . Make me money AAPL.
It seems to me that the base level iPhone is not a phone, it's the Touch. Then there's the current iPhone. I'm betting that when the 3G comes out there's an advanced level opened up. The advanced iPhone will have two cameras, faster processor (I'm guessing), perhaps added ability for video, maybe image and video editing tools, maybe broader Bluetooth or Wi-Fi rules (networks with computer?), maybe 3G exclusively and surely a few other bells and whistles.
iPhone goes for $249ish and iPhone Pro for $349-$449. Makes sense to me. The iPhone right now is heavily in the hands of Techies and early adopters. So by not undercutting the product but creating a new extreme level product many of those people who currently have iPhones suddenly want the better one. So you encourage new sales to the millions already in, created a secondary market to get more people involved and generally grow by leaps and bounds.
To my mind it's hard to argue against the logic of this scenario...
Not because you read hype and speculation. Stay steadfast in your course and conviction, which should be understanding and realistic. You will then, be up big time on your investment which will definitely take some time to be huge. Huge it will be without doubt.
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long, but the free ride is over. (Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is, nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be). Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
Don't doubt Apple - it is for real.
I agree with everything Breeze says but I want to add one more point: In addition to Apple's motivation and their culture of innovation, they've also got one of the most valuable resources around which is called OS X. Like a tall tree, there's no way to rush the growth of an operating system. Back in the 80's and 90's, Steve Jobs was aiming at perfection and interested in the long term pay-offs. Today, his competitors are suffering from his "cruel genius", and we the stockholders and customers are the beneficiaries.
Fidelity investments reported at 11:37 March 31st that Hon Hal, the 3rd generation iphone producer, is ready to ship with the nod of Apple. Wanna bet Steve has nodded . New iphone today bet ya They quote the Dow Jones Newswire.
For comparison sake, Symbian shipped 77million licences last year.
45m iPhones is going some and would need more carriers, countries and models.
Plus Apple would probably have to throw their 'single exclusive carrier' business model out the window, kicking and screaming. But I guess Tim Cook's already hinted as much.
Fidelity investments reported at 11:37 March 31st that Hon Hal, the 3rd generation iphone producer, is ready to ship with the nod of Apple. Wanna bet Steve has nodded . New iphone today bet ya They quote the Dow Jones Newswire.
Huh? They can't just ship at Steve's nod, they also have to get FCC approval for any truly new model, which a 3G iPhone would be. Haven't see any new FCC approvals for phones from Apple as of yet.
There's also a lag between getting said approval and the phone actually showing up. Usually its something like 3-4 months in the cell phone world, but Apple turbo'd the process last time and cut the lag to only six weeks. Still, even with approval happening tomorrow and Apple being just as quick on the ball as they were last time, we wouldn't see a 3G iPhone 'til mid-May, at earliest.
They could possibly announce it tomorrow, though. And that'd be cool, if it happens.
I can see Apple going with a smaller china mobile company, at once increasing competition in china, getting shared subscription revenue, and still sell a lot of phones due to the huge absolute numbers of even a small percentage of the entire china market.
Problem 1:
China Mobile and China Telecom may be different companies on paper, but in reality it's all the same company. Just like Air China was able to nix the partnership between Eastern China Air and Singapore Air, China Mobile would nix anything that China Telecom might do with Apple. There is no potential to create "competition" here. These, really, are the only two companies that exist, but they are both state run companies, so they are really one company.
Problem 2:
There will never be any sort of revenue sharing because not even us cell phone users know how much we pay for our cell phone usage. China Mobile NEVER itemizes a bill for the customer and NEVER will. 99% of people prepay for their usage in $15 dollar increments (yes, the equivalent to 100RMB). When the $15 dollars runs out, it runs out and unless you've been writing down every phone call, text message and internet search (which is impossible to do), you'll never know how much you're paying per minute or message or whatever.
If we, the user don't know - Apple will never know.
Not at issue:
It's really impossible for anyone to copy the iPhone exactly. Here's the link to the best try I've seen so far with a company named "Dopod" (notice what they call in English the "touch flow" technology:
If someone does copy the iPhone too closely here, they'll definitely loose a court battle. Starbucks just closed down a chain of coffee shops called "Shanghai Xing-Ba-Ke" which is the Chinese name of Starbucks - all by using the courts.
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Well... the territories we know about, the software we know about, the momentum and acceptance into enterprise is clear; the only question is the number of different models. Four by the end of 2009 is hardly a stretch is it?
I can't believe people are actually falling for this nonsense as if it could really happen.
45 million sales during the 12 months of 2009?
No matter what, it ain't going to happen.
You're simply not going to get everyone that would buy an iPod to buy an iPhone instead.
Gene has you all roped and doped, forget it and move on.
Gene has all the earmarks of a desperate analyst trying to pump the stock up. I'm sure at this point most of his clients are down millions of dollars. Thankfully, I haven't got that kind of money.
China Mobile and China Telecom may be different companies on paper, but in reality it's all the same company. Just like Air China was able to nix the partnership between Eastern China Air and Singapore Air, China Mobile would nix anything that China Telecom might do with Apple. There is no potential to create "competition" here. These, really, are the only two companies that exist, but they are both state run companies, so they are really one company.
Problem 2:
There will never be any sort of revenue sharing because not even us cell phone users know how much we pay for our cell phone usage. China Mobile NEVER itemizes a bill for the customer and NEVER will. 99% of people prepay for their usage in $15 dollar increments (yes, the equivalent to 100RMB). When the $15 dollars runs out, it runs out and unless you've been writing down every phone call, text message and internet search (which is impossible to do), you'll never know how much you're paying per minute or message or whatever.
If we, the user don't know - Apple will never know.
Not at issue:
It's really impossible for anyone to copy the iPhone exactly. Here's the link to the best try I've seen so far with a company named "Dopod" (notice what they call in English the "touch flow" technology:
If someone does copy the iPhone too closely here, they'll definitely loose a court battle. Starbucks just closed down a chain of coffee shops called "Shanghai Xing-Ba-Ke" which is the Chinese name of Starbucks - all by using the courts.
Comments
One good think about cell phone market is that people are used to get a new one every two years, even in US.
So, 45M.....I think it is possible.
Why must we perpetuate the hairsplitting? "In" is the same thing as "by the end of". Don't feed the loons.
No it isn't.
"By the end of" 2008 would be the sum of all the iPhones sold yearly from the day they were introduced.
For example,
4 mil in 2007 + 10 mil in 2008 + 45 mil in 2009 equals 59 million by the end of 2009, vs 45 million sold in 2009.
More specifically, the analyst expects a 3G model to arrive in June followed by a "perhaps more significant" introduction of a model by next year that will be priced between $200 and $300, addressing a more price sensitive market.
Ideal for a country with a market as big as China's, no 3G or a possibility of revenue sharing with Apple.
By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled.
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
45m iPhones is going some and would need more carriers, countries and models.
Does anyone know how much longer the AT&T contract with Apple is? I think it was something like 5 years...
It's a rumor and speculation, not a fact that's known with certainty.
Maybe Apple should break their contract and open it up to all carriers. I don't have have an iphone because I'm halfway into a 2 year contract with Sprint....
That would be nice, but so far, Apple has not shown any interest in making a CDMA phone. Right now, you have to change carriers just to use the Phone, because it's only available in a GSM version.
This exclusive tying of a product to 1 carrier seems like an outdated model anyways...
We don't know if it was required by ATT to get Apple what they want.
How? Simple people loose their phones all the time and when you have the best you will continue to buy the best it is a fact of life...
Do a simple estimate of how much cash you contribute to apple per month... Include itunes purchases, iphone shins or covers, and anything else apple sells... This tells you you are dependent on a company that helps make your life easier technically. Now imagine all those that do the same as you... If you have 2 friends that do the same imagine the rest of the world...
My old mad drives a cab - the last thing someone left was an iphone - hacked and all.
I am not sure if the stock price will go as high as they predict however I can say as apple continues to do the right thing with their products they will continue to make you even more dependent of their offerings.
I think apple will go into the PVR/DVR market soon and with that having been said it is the complete offering for the apple tv product evolved. Will they bid on a cable provider or something else? Not sure... Will apple become a carrier? Maybe look at how google is going after spacedata - or is it sky data... not sure balloons that carry signals from space - they can launch a carrier operations over night well almost...
Apple is and will continue to innovate - question is what is next and who will do who...
Google and apple are key to future growth beyond the software and hardware schema...
just my 2¢
Many of you are you failing to grasp the size of the mobile phone market and the likely growth curve of the iPhone. By the end of 2009 there will probably be 4 models with a wider range of prices and form/features, plus a truly enormous software choice and enterprise approval; and the territorial reach will have doubled. 45 million phones IN 2009 is probably quite conservative. I'd say it will be nearer 60.
Gonna knock your socks off when they tell you the earnings and sales on April 23rd. 60 is a better guess than 45 . Either way , computer sales are great and they are 60 percent of revenue. I'll sell in December before they go down again in January through March as they do each year .
iPhone goes for $249ish and iPhone Pro for $349-$449. Makes sense to me. The iPhone right now is heavily in the hands of Techies and early adopters. So by not undercutting the product but creating a new extreme level product many of those people who currently have iPhones suddenly want the better one. So you encourage new sales to the millions already in, created a secondary market to get more people involved and generally grow by leaps and bounds.
To my mind it's hard to argue against the logic of this scenario...
Not because you read hype and speculation. Stay steadfast in your course and conviction, which should be understanding and realistic. You will then, be up big time on your investment which will definitely take some time to be huge. Huge it will be without doubt.
Apple is uniquely motivated, innovative and a no hype but all substance company that can do and will. Bill Gates, bet his future on copying Apple and got to where he is for so long, but the free ride is over. (Unfortunately for him he is not the innovator that Steve Jobs is, nor is Microsoft a living model of innovation- it will never be). Apple is going to make sure that no one steals their thunder any more. It's not a question anymore of "if or when". It's happening right before our eyes. This process is not instant and takes time, as does anything-including evolution.
Apple will lead the way and has the respect and trust of it's life long supporters because of it's proven and unshakable record of innovating and making top quality hardware and software.
iPhone will be ubiquitous - just like the iPod. 45 million or not - ubiquitous is - IT.
Don't doubt Apple - it is for real.
I agree with everything Breeze says but I want to add one more point: In addition to Apple's motivation and their culture of innovation, they've also got one of the most valuable resources around which is called OS X. Like a tall tree, there's no way to rush the growth of an operating system. Back in the 80's and 90's, Steve Jobs was aiming at perfection and interested in the long term pay-offs. Today, his competitors are suffering from his "cruel genius", and we the stockholders and customers are the beneficiaries.
For comparison sake, Symbian shipped 77million licences last year.
45m iPhones is going some and would need more carriers, countries and models.
Plus Apple would probably have to throw their 'single exclusive carrier' business model out the window, kicking and screaming. But I guess Tim Cook's already hinted as much.
.
Fidelity investments reported at 11:37 March 31st that Hon Hal, the 3rd generation iphone producer, is ready to ship with the nod of Apple. Wanna bet Steve has nodded . New iphone today bet ya
Huh? They can't just ship at Steve's nod, they also have to get FCC approval for any truly new model, which a 3G iPhone would be. Haven't see any new FCC approvals for phones from Apple as of yet.
There's also a lag between getting said approval and the phone actually showing up. Usually its something like 3-4 months in the cell phone world, but Apple turbo'd the process last time and cut the lag to only six weeks. Still, even with approval happening tomorrow and Apple being just as quick on the ball as they were last time, we wouldn't see a 3G iPhone 'til mid-May, at earliest.
They could possibly announce it tomorrow, though. And that'd be cool, if it happens.
.
Apparently Gene Munster rolled a super-blunt and did not elect to share with any of us. Now that is tragic.
.
I can see Apple going with a smaller china mobile company, at once increasing competition in china, getting shared subscription revenue, and still sell a lot of phones due to the huge absolute numbers of even a small percentage of the entire china market.
Problem 1:
China Mobile and China Telecom may be different companies on paper, but in reality it's all the same company. Just like Air China was able to nix the partnership between Eastern China Air and Singapore Air, China Mobile would nix anything that China Telecom might do with Apple. There is no potential to create "competition" here. These, really, are the only two companies that exist, but they are both state run companies, so they are really one company.
Problem 2:
There will never be any sort of revenue sharing because not even us cell phone users know how much we pay for our cell phone usage. China Mobile NEVER itemizes a bill for the customer and NEVER will. 99% of people prepay for their usage in $15 dollar increments (yes, the equivalent to 100RMB). When the $15 dollars runs out, it runs out and unless you've been writing down every phone call, text message and internet search (which is impossible to do), you'll never know how much you're paying per minute or message or whatever.
If we, the user don't know - Apple will never know.
Not at issue:
It's really impossible for anyone to copy the iPhone exactly. Here's the link to the best try I've seen so far with a company named "Dopod" (notice what they call in English the "touch flow" technology:
http://www.dopod.com.cn/pc/product/s1_1.php
If someone does copy the iPhone too closely here, they'll definitely loose a court battle. Starbucks just closed down a chain of coffee shops called "Shanghai Xing-Ba-Ke" which is the Chinese name of Starbucks - all by using the courts.
peace out
Pachomius
Shanghai China
Yes this sounds very clever but its there is no evidence for it whatsoever.
Well... the territories we know about, the software we know about, the momentum and acceptance into enterprise is clear; the only question is the number of different models. Four by the end of 2009 is hardly a stretch is it?
Pretty funny.
I can't believe people are actually falling for this nonsense as if it could really happen.
45 million sales during the 12 months of 2009?
No matter what, it ain't going to happen.
You're simply not going to get everyone that would buy an iPod to buy an iPhone instead.
Gene has you all roped and doped, forget it and move on.
Gene has all the earmarks of a desperate analyst trying to pump the stock up. I'm sure at this point most of his clients are down millions of dollars. Thankfully, I haven't got that kind of money.
No it isn't.
"By the end of" 2008 would be the sum of all the iPhones sold yearly from the day they were introduced.
For example,
4 mil in 2007 + 10 mil in 2008 + 45 mil in 2009 equals 59 million by the end of 2009, vs 45 million sold in 2009.
What? We're not including previous years. We're only talking about one calendar year.
Problem 1:
China Mobile and China Telecom may be different companies on paper, but in reality it's all the same company. Just like Air China was able to nix the partnership between Eastern China Air and Singapore Air, China Mobile would nix anything that China Telecom might do with Apple. There is no potential to create "competition" here. These, really, are the only two companies that exist, but they are both state run companies, so they are really one company.
Problem 2:
There will never be any sort of revenue sharing because not even us cell phone users know how much we pay for our cell phone usage. China Mobile NEVER itemizes a bill for the customer and NEVER will. 99% of people prepay for their usage in $15 dollar increments (yes, the equivalent to 100RMB). When the $15 dollars runs out, it runs out and unless you've been writing down every phone call, text message and internet search (which is impossible to do), you'll never know how much you're paying per minute or message or whatever.
If we, the user don't know - Apple will never know.
Not at issue:
It's really impossible for anyone to copy the iPhone exactly. Here's the link to the best try I've seen so far with a company named "Dopod" (notice what they call in English the "touch flow" technology:
http://www.dopod.com.cn/pc/product/s1_1.php
If someone does copy the iPhone too closely here, they'll definitely loose a court battle. Starbucks just closed down a chain of coffee shops called "Shanghai Xing-Ba-Ke" which is the Chinese name of Starbucks - all by using the courts.
peace out
Pachomius
Shanghai China
谢谢侬