A look at who's making iPhone 3G purchases thus far
A study of customers queued outside of Apple's retail stores over the weekend reveals that early iPhone 3G adopters are predominantly Mac users, and that Motorola and Samsung are amongst the rival handset vendors that will be hit hardest as consumers flock to Apple for their new mobile phone.
The survey of more than 280 line waiters conducted by investment bank Piper Jaffray in New York City and Minneapolis was aimed at quantifying everything from launch demand, to the mix of 8GB and 16GB models, to the phones from which customers were upgrading. The results were then also compared to those from a similar survey conducted during the original iPhone launch last year.
Overall, Piper Jaffray found that 61 percent of early adopters owned Macs and 39 percent owned Windows-based PCs, a sign that Apple's existing customer base was largely to thank for the successful launch that raked in sales of more than 1 million units in just three days. At the same time, however, that figure clearly shows the Cupertino-based company to be gaining influence amongst Windows users, who accounted for just 25 percent of first weekend iPhone sales last year.
Of those surveyed, 66 percent said they planned on buying the higher capacity 16GB model, compared to a resounding 95 percent of buyers who selected the higher capacity 8GB option during last year's iPhone launch. The remaining 34 percent were content saving $100 and settling for the entry level iPhone 3G that offers half as much storage.
The iPhone is also starting to show some definitive signs of cannibalization of standalone iPods, however. Last year, 68 percent of early iPhone adopters surveyed by Piper Jaffray said they would continue to use an iPod in addition to their iPhone. That compares to just 51 percent this year.
Also of interest from the firm's survey is that 85 percent of early iPhone 3G buyers said they were compelled into their purchase by the handset's new features, while only 9 percent cited the phone's greatly reduced price. Meanwhile, the iPhone continues to serve as a driver for AT&T's subscriber base, with 38 percent of those queued outside Apple retail stores indicating they'd be switching to AT&T for the first this past weekend (compared to 52 percent during the original iPhone launch).
Those customers switching to AT&T to get an iPhone 3G or dump their non-Apple handset were doing so largely at the expense of handset makers Motorola and Samsung, Piper Jaffray found. In particular, 20 percent said they were retiring a Motorola handset and 13 percent said they were trading up from a Samsung phone. Only 6 percent said they were moving from a Blackberry, 4 percent from a Nokia, and 3 percent from a Treo. Another 6 percent said they were upgrading from an LG phone, and 38 percent owned a first-generation iPhone.
Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, had originally estimated that Apple would sell 425,000 iPhones from Friday morning to Sunday evening. Following Apple's announcement Monday morning that it actually moved 1 million units, Munster issued an updated report to clients in which he estimated the majority of that upside was driven by stronger than anticipated demand internationally.
Specifically, he estimated that 400,000 units were sold in the U.S., 250,000 units were sold in the U.K., and an average of 18,000 units were sold in each of the 19 other countries.
"Global demand for the iPhone is better than expected. This trend will likely continue as Apple rolls out an additional 58 countries in the next several months," the analyst said. "In addition, we expect Apple will sell phones in China and Russia by year end. The only problem is production, but we continue to believe 45 million units for 2009 is achievable."
The survey of more than 280 line waiters conducted by investment bank Piper Jaffray in New York City and Minneapolis was aimed at quantifying everything from launch demand, to the mix of 8GB and 16GB models, to the phones from which customers were upgrading. The results were then also compared to those from a similar survey conducted during the original iPhone launch last year.
Overall, Piper Jaffray found that 61 percent of early adopters owned Macs and 39 percent owned Windows-based PCs, a sign that Apple's existing customer base was largely to thank for the successful launch that raked in sales of more than 1 million units in just three days. At the same time, however, that figure clearly shows the Cupertino-based company to be gaining influence amongst Windows users, who accounted for just 25 percent of first weekend iPhone sales last year.
Of those surveyed, 66 percent said they planned on buying the higher capacity 16GB model, compared to a resounding 95 percent of buyers who selected the higher capacity 8GB option during last year's iPhone launch. The remaining 34 percent were content saving $100 and settling for the entry level iPhone 3G that offers half as much storage.
The iPhone is also starting to show some definitive signs of cannibalization of standalone iPods, however. Last year, 68 percent of early iPhone adopters surveyed by Piper Jaffray said they would continue to use an iPod in addition to their iPhone. That compares to just 51 percent this year.
Also of interest from the firm's survey is that 85 percent of early iPhone 3G buyers said they were compelled into their purchase by the handset's new features, while only 9 percent cited the phone's greatly reduced price. Meanwhile, the iPhone continues to serve as a driver for AT&T's subscriber base, with 38 percent of those queued outside Apple retail stores indicating they'd be switching to AT&T for the first this past weekend (compared to 52 percent during the original iPhone launch).
Those customers switching to AT&T to get an iPhone 3G or dump their non-Apple handset were doing so largely at the expense of handset makers Motorola and Samsung, Piper Jaffray found. In particular, 20 percent said they were retiring a Motorola handset and 13 percent said they were trading up from a Samsung phone. Only 6 percent said they were moving from a Blackberry, 4 percent from a Nokia, and 3 percent from a Treo. Another 6 percent said they were upgrading from an LG phone, and 38 percent owned a first-generation iPhone.
Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, had originally estimated that Apple would sell 425,000 iPhones from Friday morning to Sunday evening. Following Apple's announcement Monday morning that it actually moved 1 million units, Munster issued an updated report to clients in which he estimated the majority of that upside was driven by stronger than anticipated demand internationally.
Specifically, he estimated that 400,000 units were sold in the U.S., 250,000 units were sold in the U.K., and an average of 18,000 units were sold in each of the 19 other countries.
"Global demand for the iPhone is better than expected. This trend will likely continue as Apple rolls out an additional 58 countries in the next several months," the analyst said. "In addition, we expect Apple will sell phones in China and Russia by year end. The only problem is production, but we continue to believe 45 million units for 2009 is achievable."
Comments
only 14k in Australia???
Surprised see to 64k in Mexico wow, almost comes third or fourth after US, UK, Italy
only 14k in Australia???
Those are Gene's "estimates," remember.
Best,
K
I think its good that not all 70 countries were selling iPhone. Can anyone imagine the down time for the Apple Servers. ohhhhhh myyyy...
If 21 countries shut them down, then 70 would just explode them
So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?
thanks for the article
69K in Mexico? WOW! Im very confused.
I think its good that not all 70 countries were selling iPhone. Can anyone imagine the down time for the Apple Servers. ohhhhhh myyyy...
If 21 countries shut them down, then 70 would just explode them
LOL Cupertino would have melted into the Pacific Ocean.
Gene does not know what the actual number breakdown was.... estimates, people.... estimates!
Yeah the prediction is ambitious, but wow. Very very rough estimates. Somebody had to do it though.
The UK number I feel is quite high, given how fast they flew out the window and how fast everywhere was sold out and pre-booked up the wazoo. I'd say 150,000 sold *max*. Assuming 1,000 outlets across the UK, each with 100 phones, that's 100,000 total. We know most places had only about 50 on average, maybe less. Throw in about 50,000 pre-orders, that's 150,000 total sold so far in the UK. But what do I know...
Interesting numbers. More PC user's on board for this one.
So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?
thanks for the article
As I was standing in line in the Manhattan Beach store I overhead a woman talking about her computer. I thought the wording of her discussion was interesting. She said "We don't even have a Mac, we just have a regular Dell." It might not seem like much but it was a good indication to me that Apple's image is in good shape and that it's becoming more of an aspirational brand. Obviously, this woman was standing in line to get an iPhone, so she wasn't just somebody off the street, but I thought it was an interesting turn of phrase.
Interesting numbers. More PC user's on board for this one.
So many countries on the list. Certainly gives the impression of the iPhone being a dominant global platform but how does it compare with the penetration of its competitors? Is the iPhone the largest platform or does it just appear to be?
thanks for the article
IMO it's going to start of as somewhere in the top 5 after Symbian and WindowsMobile. Probably by the end of the year it will be ahead of WindowsMobile...
If Apple can manage the momentum and produce enough phones and grow the company really quite rapidly, we could see it in top 2 to top 3, maybe no.1 for smartphones. Nokia is the big chunk of the competition but right now Apple is probably looking to edge out Windows Mobile and Blackberry devices.
unload on eBay. Do early 3G adopters with original iPhones really think the originals
are that bad to impulsively move over to a more expensive plan before the two-year
period runs out? Maybe these are the type of folk who trade in a new car
for another new one every couple years ...
Or, perhaps a good portion are the post-May 27 purchases which trade
up for a minimal cost.
At any rate, for cheap hand-me-downs, can one fire up the "old" AT&T plan?
If I had an original, I would not have hesitated to move up. I anticipate moving up next year.
Surprised see to 64k in Mexico wow, almost comes third or fourth after US, UK, Italy
only 14k in Australia???
I think Mexico's numbers are surprising if true, but weren't the Australians complaining pretty loudly about their plan offerings? I thought they showed they were getting a "deal" that was roughly comparable to Canada's.
Whats Tequila?
UM...Its Like Beer.....
Is it fattening? FATTENING?
Viva Mexico!
I think Mexico's numbers are surprising if true, but weren't the Australians complaining pretty loudly about their plan offerings? I thought they showed they were getting a "deal" that was roughly comparable to Canada's.
No, The Optus plans are pretty good. Probably better that the US. Calling plans start at $19 per month, need to buy the phone though, that is $500 but paid off at $50 per month.
Australia's problem is no stock, if Australia only sold 14k then Australia only had 14k.
Do early 3G adopters with original iPhones really think the originals are that bad to impulsively move over to a more expensive plan before the two-year period runs out?
I didn't have the original iPhone, but if the Edge speed on the original is the same as the iPhone 3G (I assume it is) then the 3G is totally worth upgrading for. I've been out of 3G range a couple of times and had to use Edge...man, it was almost unbearable after being on 3G 95% of the time! Now, if you don't have 3G readily available, then it probably isn't worth the upgrade, unless you really love GPS.
Or do they think the 3G is that much better and worth the added cos of moving up?
If I had an original, I would not have hesitated to move up. I anticipate moving up next year.
Agreed. If a year from now they have a significantly better iPhone (such as going from Edge to 3G & GPS) I will almost surely upgrade. I can't imagine living in an area that has 3G, yet knowing that I'm stuck with an Edge only iPhone. It's night-and-day, IMO.
What were they smoking when estimating?