Apple plans mystery "product transition" before September's end

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  • Reply 101 of 735
    dglowdglow Posts: 147member
    What might be Teh Steve's overarching message for this mysterious upcoming transition? I'm thinking 'high def done right', or something along those lines. Steve would define this to mean HD offered in manner which leverages nearly the entire Apple product line.



    The rationale goes like this...



    HDTVs sold like hotcakes last Holiday, but HD disc players were left behind, relatively speaking. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see that changing this year. Sony, Best Buy, and the rest of the consumer electronics industry need it to and, with the physical format wars over, 2008 seems poised to be the year of Blu-Ray.



    Therefore, Apple's most obvious 'one-up' is making Apple TV the most desirable Blu-Ray player this Holiday. At ~$250, an AppleTV with Blu-Ray playaback would fly off the shelves. We can debate exact pricing, but suffice to say: if the product is an Apple, and the price looks good vs. the competition, it will sell.



    In doing so, Apple will seed their iTunes media hub and storefront, which is what they really care about. If there's any area in which Apple faces competition, it is this one: Vudu, the Netflix box, PS3, 360, to name a few. Aggressively competing in this space certainly affects margins. Last I checked, the least expensive Blu-Ray player is still a highly-subsidized game machine.





    So what else might Apple do to conquer the high-def playback market?



    Enabling Technologies:
    • Blu-Ray drives

    • DisplayPort

    • 'Secure Copy' (or whatever they're calling it now)

    Obvious Product Moves:
    • BD-capable drives throughout the notebook line

      - readers on consumer models, writers for pros

    • Display Port on every machine

      - port design enables smaller form factors (notebook redesign)

      - full compatibility (DVI, HDMI, even VGA out)

      - keeps the MPAA monkey off Apple's back

      - HD iTunes rentals now enabled for notebooks

    Apple Bonus:
    • buy the Blu-Ray, put a (protected) copy on your iPod

      - syncs from both notebooks and Apple TVs

    • securely copy the film to your hard drive

      - improves battery life, key for long flights

      - Blu-Ray playback solution for Air users

    Long Shots:
    • Display Port on iTouch models (maybe not, but soon?)

    • Apple home theater (return of the iPod HiFi speaker experiment)

    • Apple TVs within actual TVs (it'll happen eventually)

    • Free WALL•E Blu-Ray with every notebook purchase (never!)

    • Cinema Display refresh (sorry, CWeb, but we all know this won't ever happen)



    Okay, that's my list. Pick it apart...
  • Reply 102 of 735
    gregalexandergregalexander Posts: 1,400member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post


    I'm with those who think it could involve something with Apple TV. Perhaps sell them so cheaply (reducing margins) that a lot of people will buy them that otherwise wouldn't think about it. If Apple thinks that online distribution of movies is ready to take off then this is one way to make it happen while grabbing the lion's share of the market.



    I assume the AppleTV currently has a higher margin than other Mac products, but that would be a guess. Assuming it has the same margin, if they drop the price by about $160 (to $69/169) and sell a million of them in 3 months, it could reduce their margins as described. I think.



    I think they'd be running at a loss though... and even if they want to drop their margins I'd doubt they'd go for a loss.
  • Reply 103 of 735
    shanmugamshanmugam Posts: 1,200member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GregAlexander View Post


    I assume the AppleTV currently has a higher margin than other Mac products, but that would be a guess. Assuming it has the same margin, if they drop the price by about $160 (to $69/169) and sell a million of them in 3 months, it could reduce their margins as described. I think.



    I think they'd be running at a loss though... and even if they want to drop their margins I'd doubt they'd go for a loss.



    nope, AppleTV is not high margin product, it is already very competitive... do not think they can reduce a lot
  • Reply 104 of 735
    jousterjouster Posts: 460member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solsun View Post


    Volume control is tactile and resides on the side of the iPod touch.



    No it doesn't.
  • Reply 105 of 735
    porchlandporchland Posts: 478member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Adrianzehn View Post


    This product needs something to gain attention and market share.....



    It's very important for Apple's future and just isn't doing the job at the moment....



    AZ



    September is the beginning of the TV season, so you may be onto something.



    How about a Comcast-killer Apple TV -- a $49 box with a $20-a-month all-you-can-watch plan?
  • Reply 106 of 735
    gregalexandergregalexander Posts: 1,400member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shanmugam View Post


    nope, AppleTV is not high margin product, it is already very competitive... do not think they can reduce a lot



    The price reduction I suggested ($160 drop) is based more on the decrease in Apple's overall profit required to make the decrease in margin they forecast (in connection with the secret product).



    The current sales and the current margins affect the calculation a bit - but not hugely. It's basically "how many do they need to sell to make $150million less" (ie: $150 less on 1 million sales - and yes I know this is loose!).



    So if you're right then to be the secret product, the AppleTV would need to make quite a loss and sell a lot, and as I said I don't think they want that.
  • Reply 107 of 735
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,403member
    128GB SSD with the most cutting-edge Intel chip, tablet touchscreen, 4 lbs., 15"MBA w/three USB ports + built in 3G chip, for $1799.



    I am in line.
  • Reply 108 of 735
    wobegonwobegon Posts: 764member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Adrianzehn View Post


    This product needs something to gain attention and market share.....



    It's very important for Apple's future and just isn't doing the job at the moment....



    AZ



    From a RoughlyDrafted article:



    Apple TV is not the classic economic razor and media sales are not the disposable blades; both are only minor product offerings that help support Apple?s other businesses. Apple TV was created to allow Apple to get established in the emerging market for Internet movie rentals and purchases. Without it, the company would have had a tough time trying to sell the movie studios on its plans to market their movies exclusively on iPod and iPhone screens or for playback directly on PCs.



    Apple TV plays a supporting role. Competing devices from Vudu to Microsoft?s Media Center have similarly had a hard time making much progress. Unlike the iPod, there?s no vast potential hardware profits to tap, and unlike the iPhone, there?s no significant service revenues to earn. Apple TV is a slow growth device that requires a supporting ecosystem of iTunes and iPods to maintain it.



    Apple has that but nobody else does. That will make it very hard to compete against Apple TV, even harder than the competitive efforts mounted to displace the iTunes Store, where small profits require large volumes of sales to break even. Apple is building a juggernaut of slow growth sales that support new product categories that couldn?t exist on their own; Apple TV is a key example of that.




    http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/0...g-up-apple-tv/
  • Reply 109 of 735
    jbach67jbach67 Posts: 27member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solsun View Post


    I already said this in another post.... But...



    The non-touch controls already exist on the iPod touch.. You can start, stop and skip songs directly from the earbuds. Volume control is tactile and resides on the side of the iPod touch.



    An iPod nano touch would not be a tiny screen if the click wheel is removed. Imagine the same size as the current nano phatty except the entire front would be a touch surface. It would not be much smaller than the full sized iPod touch. Very doable..



    Instant music would be as simple as adding a "shuffle" icon to the home screen.



    Solsun, as someone else has noted, you are either wrong or already have one of the new model ipods. The only tactile controls on mine are the on-off/dim screen on top (not counting the switch program button on front.) And my stock white earbuds don't have any controls whatsoever. Where do you get ipod touch earbuds with them? In fact, both of these feature would be nice on a refresh.



    And if you remove the clickwheel from the nano making it a tiny touch, you've just made it less functional for the one handers who don't want to have to look at it to make things happen. Not saying there's no market for a tiny touch, but we know the current nano is the top selling ipod model. Why remove part of what makes it attractive?
  • Reply 110 of 735
    Rather than see all iPods go touch screen, I'm thinking that Macs will be going to a touch interface, we may actually see a Mac Touch, in the form of a Tablet PC. But with no physical keyboard at all. Basically a big iPod touch
  • Reply 111 of 735
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jouster View Post


    No it doesn't.







    The iPhone has the volume buttons.
  • Reply 112 of 735
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dglow View Post


    DisplayPort



    I get the impression that DisplayPort is more for computers, HDMI is more for home theater.
  • Reply 113 of 735
    solsunsolsun Posts: 763member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jbach67 View Post


    Solsun, as someone else has noted, you are either wrong or already have one of the new model ipods. The only tactile controls on mine are the on-off/dim screen on top (not counting the switch program button on front.) And my stock white earbuds don't have any controls whatsoever. Where do you get ipod touch earbuds with them? In fact, both of these feature would be nice on a refresh.



    And if you remove the clickwheel from the nano making it a tiny touch, you've just made it less functional for the one handers who don't want to have to look at it to make things happen. Not saying there's no market for a tiny touch, but we know the current nano is the top selling ipod model. Why remove part of what makes it attractive?



    Noted about the volume control, I was looking at my iPhone.. At any rate, the point I was making is the nano is not so tiny once the click wheel is gone.. It actually becomes very realistic and usable size as a touch device by doubling the screen real estate.. And again, simply adding a "shuffle" icon to the home screen enables instant music that requires no more user interaction than a current nano.. The iTouch was the start, but it is inevitable that this is where the entire line is heading.



    Ultimately, a nano touch makes a huge amount of sense.. Apple are building a mobile platform with the iPhone, app store, OSX and touch technology. Opening up this platform to developers via the app store to it's best selling mobile device (the nano,) and keeping the price-point the same may cut into near term profit margin, but will ultimately slaughter the competition.
  • Reply 114 of 735
    jousterjouster Posts: 460member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by roehlstation View Post


    The iPhone has the volume buttons.



    I am aware of that. Look at what Solsun wrote.
  • Reply 115 of 735
    I'm just not feeling the iPods or Apple TV as representing "technologies" that others "can't match." Notice: not "products that are a jump ahead of the competition," but "technologies others can't match." Maybe it IS their much more complex multi-touch technology we've seen several patents for. If it weren't too soon (I was really expecting it with Snow Leopard) I'd trot out my pet theory (yeah, so? A lot of you have them, some crazier than mine) that PA Semi will design hardware accelerators for all the Core Functions of OS X, taking performance into a whole new area. The competition couldn't match that; they've been talking about doing the same thing for Windows forever, but it's probably such a convoluted mess that it could never be made modular enough for that kind of treatment.



    Also, this could explain their rather subdued reaction to Psystar. After this transition, they could tell everybody: "Clone this, suckers!" Plus all the clones would just be moving people into the Mac camp, but if they want real performance, they have to buy the real thing.



    And this would reduce their profit margin, because let's face it, there's going to be more chips in the box.
  • Reply 116 of 735
    gregalexandergregalexander Posts: 1,400member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wobegon View Post


    From a RoughlyDrafted article:



    Unlike the iPod, there?s no vast potential hardware profits to tap, and unlike the iPhone, there?s no significant service revenues to earn. Apple TV is a slow growth device that requires a supporting ecosystem of iTunes and iPods to maintain it.



    What exactly are you trying to say wobegon?



    That AppleTV is something that fits their statement? Or not?
  • Reply 117 of 735
    cdong4cdong4 Posts: 194member
    It's definitely going to be a newish product.



    Maybe iMac like dock for the laptop line (though this seems to targeting a limited audience)



    A tablet mac is highly likely, with a very affordable starting price point. Perhaps the tablet is wirelessly tethered to a box that does the computing separately. Wireless HDMI is already out there in the wild, so the video signal is taken care of, the only other thing would be sending the touch recognition to the box. Maybe this isn't as desirable as a full portable tablet unit would be.



    I'm thinking xMac might finally rear its head (I've always. This xMac could be modular and suit a variety of needs. DVR + Media Center + BluRay player... or a File Server + NAS + Drobo like backup system... or a desktop with limited expandability based on a mini atx form facotr. Perhaps its not as flexible as this (perhaps it is) and its the counterpart to the tablet.



    /wildest apple dreams of the last 20 years coming true
  • Reply 118 of 735
    gregalexandergregalexander Posts: 1,400member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac-sochist View Post


    I'm just not feeling the iPods or Apple TV as representing "technologies" that others "can't match." Notice: not "products that are a jump ahead of the competition," but "technologies others can't match." Maybe it IS their much more complex multi-touch technology we've seen several patents for.



    There are far fewer possibilities once you look at what Apple said.



    Even the title of this discussion is misleading - there's a mystery product transition before September's end that will substantially affect margins between July & September. And they gave comparison margins for this quarter and next quarter - if sales remain constant on the mystery technology, it needs to be released next Tuesday.



    I agree I can't see much in the iPod area that's needed to give Apple a leap ahead. It comes down to something that pushes into a new area that others can't match. The AppleTV is a vague possibility if they pull together and mass market a new model of sales/rental/record/ad-support, but my first choice has to be putting touch into all Mac products.



    ps. Your pet idea of custom accelerated chips gives a speed increase, but I'm not sure it's significant enough to call a transition. And it's too soon.
  • Reply 119 of 735
    kiwirobkiwirob Posts: 26member
    One thing I've noticed is my AppleTV gets really HOT just sitting next to my 42" Plasma doing nothing. For consumer electronics this isn't all that good.



    My guess is AppleTV will be updated with a new chip, possibly an ARM optimized by the PA Semi team or an ultra efficient Power based chip.



    IPhone developers will be able to "1 Click" convert their iPhone games and Apps to run on the new AppleTV. As well as new API's to allow for higher resolution displays.



    For games on the AppleTV an iPhone or iTouch will act as a controller. I'm not 100% sure of the latency issues with using 802.11b/g/n for remote game control so perhaps bluetooth will be used instead. All iPhone games in the AppStore will run on the AppleTV though.



    Apple giving away all the iTouch's to students with their new laptops in the back to school promo was definitely help make sure there was critical mass of game controller remotes available for gamers. For standard AppleTV functions the current remote will work fine.



    Sony recently have the new top end HDTV coming out with built-in AppleTV type technology. It's possible that a MAJOR transition of the AppleTV could be to attach a TV to it. The margins on HDTV's is a lot lower than most computer products and entering this market could be the reason for dropping gross margins going forward.



    A 42" LCD AppleTV for your lounge wouldn't really be too hard for Apple to make. They already have the control system technology in the current AppleTV and have contacts with major LCD makers for all their notebook and desktop machines.



    The big HDTV makers could be shut out of the market of integrated HDTV based home media and internet centers. Apple can use PA Semi's chips to have the AppleHDTV take on xBox in the game console market at the same time. Wouldn't Steve Job's just love to take Microsoft out to the woodshed and chop it's head off for ripping him off all those years back.
  • Reply 120 of 735
    When is the next one where there should be some new product announcements? I remember something in September or October. Is this true?
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