And since Macs are counted in full the quarter they're sold while iPhone 3G money is spread out over years, we could get a little bump in the road in the current quarter, IMHO.
Nope the iPhone 3G is accounted for at the moment of purchase. They sell 'full' price to the operator/carrier and what those do afterwards to subsidize the machine is of no importance to Apple.
Basically the same model has been thoroughly tested by the likes of Nokia, Motorola and co. over the last decade. Apple tried to change the rules of engagement by getting airtime revenue, but ultimately either failed or had common sense prevailing by adopting a proven and robust busines model. (By adding MobileMe on top of that they still will have recurring income - ebven I who had only local backups until now is considering moving part of the BU towards MM -ie the iTunes part)
Almost all of Apple's stores worldwide have spent the last roughly two weeks doing little else than selling 1-2M iPhone 3Gs, which could be really bad for the top line in this quarter.
I don't believe this paints an accurate picture of store activity since the opening weekend when stocks of iPhones were high. I visited a very popular Apple store on Thursday, 7/17, which was advertised on-line as having no stock, but which had been receiving "small" shipments of iPhones each day. iPhone customers still lined up in anticipation. Once the shipment arrived (at about 11am), iPhone customers were only being handled two-at-a-time, leaving many to wait in a rather short line for hours. Meanwhile, all other customers were being served by several (perhaps 10 or more) other sales staff.
Furthermore, it was made clear during the conference call that the lower profit margin would be due to new, presently unannounced product and the expected pricing model.
I could not agree more. Apple is going strong and still moving up. And although there is an entire company behind him, no one can doubt or undervalue the effects of Steve's leadership and insight upon Apple this past decade. He has forever changed the tech industry and he has inspired people to push the envelope of what is possible. It is because of Mr. Jobs that we are here posting in this forum. He rekindled the flame of Apple lovers. Here's to hoping that his health is on the mend, because an Apple without Steve Jobs is just wrong.
That's all well and good, but the hard truth is that he is going to leave someday. There will, indeed, be an Apple without Steve Jobs.
Companies have to be bigger than their CEOs, because they are long-term investment vehicles, and shareholders are right to want at least inklings of a post-Jobs game plan; secrecy can work for product releases, but it doesn't work here. The euphoria they've been riding from sales growth has masked the core fallacy of a company that is dependent on a single person - or, at least, a company that has consistently projected that image.
There's nothing wrong with recognizing Jobs' inestimable importance to the company. The problem is when that's all we do, right up until the point where he departs, for one reason or another - and then customers, investors, and Apple management stare into the oncoming headlights.
BIG, BIG money is at stake because of his unwillingness to be truthful with owners of AAPL.
Where's the RESPECT?
Believe it or not he most likely has a life. I would hope the shareholders of apple would be last on his list of people to please if he is running through hard times health wise. Apple, despite what many think, is not entirely dependent on his presence. He doesn't owe you a damn thing.
Basically, who the hell do you think you are? Try to imagine what he is going through.
My belief is that Steve Jobs will die in a plane crash at the age of 72 . Of course I was the one predicting you couldn't buy AAPL below $165 today also . I hope he's even older than that when he goes .He has a "Whipple" , he's always gonna look bad . Tough , I look shitty too. Best luck Steve . I still drank my champagne last night, and i got more for tonight , everybody's welcome. See ya at 6pm.
Jobs is a great leader who manages to inspire his very talented crew. I really wish him the best as Apple should not become an exercise in brand marketing (like Porsche & Ferrari).
Not to get too off topic but Ferrari has seen a great resurgence in Formula 1 and in fact all Formula 1 cars will use Ferrari engines. And the worst interior ever in a Ferrari was the F40 which was Enzo's swan song.
I think people forget that great leaders are not infallible (Apple has made many high profile mistakes) and that even though the largest public figure gets most of the praise and damnation in any large organization, it is the organization and it's philosophy that carry on the tradition. There have been a great many organizations that lost a great leader and carried on. In many cases, they excelled and expanded.
What will happen with Apple is purely speculation but if Apple folds when Steve Jobs steps down or dies then he wasn't really that great a leader anyway because great leaders prepare for the inevitable.
As responsible people which many of you Apple liberals aren't, some things are bigger than yourself. I am an Apple fan from afar. I like the technology and innovation, but mostly what I find compelling to like is the competition with Microsoft. Back to my original statement, the company's revival, and you must admit, is due to Steve Jobs. On a personal level, from what I know, he's an arrogant self-loathing SOB. He abandoned his children and responsibilities to pursue self indulgence. That being said, he cannot leave Apple for health reasons, he must come clean to share-holders to whom he's ultimately beholding to. I hope it's not life threatening as some are hyping, but sometimes, you must think of others before ones self. To many of you, I know this is foreign...
Believe it or not he most likely has a life. I would hope the shareholders of apple would be last on his list of people to please if he is running through hard times health wise. Apple, despite what many think, is not entirely dependent on his presence. He doesn't owe you a damn thing.
Basically, who the hell do you think you are? Try to imagine what he is going through.
You speak as would a person with no money. I"ll tell you who I am - an AAPL shareholder with ownership
rights. I have no idea what Mr Jobs is going through because he has not explained his status.
If he and Apple Directors shirk their fiduciary duty resulting in a significant financial loss because of lack of disclosure: they can be sure a class action awaits their defense, professionally and Jobs estate personally.
You speak as would a person with no money. I"ll tell you who I am - an AAPL shareholder with ownership
rights. I have no idea what Mr Jobs is going through because he has not explained his status.
If he and Apple Directors shirk their fiduciary duty resulting in a significant financial loss because of lack of disclosure: they can be sure a class action awaits their defense, professionally and Jobs estate personally.
(1) Your rights as a shareholder do not trump a manager's privacy rights; indeed, even the board has to be careful about what and how much they can demand, since medical records are a private matter. This is quite different from your rights to ask to look under the hood over something like options backdating, since that dealt with a disclosure issue.
(2) Under the US system of governance and its essential premise, the so-called "business judgment rule" (look it up), the board is given fairly wide latitude in decisions that involve the weighing of pros and cons: for instance, if they can reasonably show (in the event of, say, a shareholder lawsuit from types such as yourself) that, in their business judgement, the benefit/cost ratio of keeping Steve on with all of its attendant uncertainties more than outweighed that of not having him at the helm, all you will do is waste time and money.
...the benefit/cost ratio of keeping Steve on with all of its attendant uncertainties more than outweighed that of not having him at the helm...
This is probably the case, but for Steve, I hope he gets better. I just saw Wall-E, it's pretty darn amazing considering 3/4 of the movie has no dialogue whatsoever.
I fear such a visionary may be finding fewer and fewer places in our current world, he may be destined for bigger and greater things.
Unfortunately they did. Their cars look very juvenile with a playstation inspired interior.
And Porsche became very boyish as well when managers (Wendelin Wiedeking) took over the helmet. The 911 interior is a joke, as is the beefy exterior:
Jobs is a great leader who manages to inspire his very talented crew. I really wish him the best as Apple should not become an exercise in brand marketing (like Porsche & Ferrari).
You forgot to mention that Porsche also became highly profitable, as it never was before, while still build exciting cars.. and that it now own the majority of VW, one of the biggest car manufacturers of the world.
It is completely possible to have the best of both worlds.
And about Porsche being a joke... it is a question of taste, not a fact.
Just feel like gloating a bit. I bought a few shares this morning at $149. Made $13/share today. Yay me!
As for Steve, as others have said, he has a founder's clout and charisma. Remember the days when he was gone from Apple? There just wasn't the same passion at the top, the purity of vision. Apple will survive, but it will be fundamentally different. Gone will be that "I started this; this is my baby" mentality. Apple will be hard pressed to find someone with both the designer/perfectionist vision that Steve has and who will be listened to/tolerated by the BoD.
As for product transition: As much as I'd like to see a mini-tower, I don't think it will happen. The big benefit of a tower is being able to upgrade the guts. 1) Apple doesn't do motherboard or CPU upgrades. 2) Apple supports very few video card options. So beyond internal drives, I don't see much use for a mini-tower.
I like the speculation that Apple will switch to some now expensive component - like SSD - and absorb the cost in the short-term, while letting margins grow as time goes by.
For wild speculation: I'd like to see something like the Touch replace the trackpad. i.e. a display and input device. Applications could change the input display as needed. The Nintendo DS has proven that two displays, one dedicated to user input can work well.
And apple recovered most of the drop, it only ended up down 4 and a quarter from yesterday, or 2.5%. That's nothing.
Anyone who bought at today's low of 148 made 14 bucks a share by the end of the day. I wish I had some cash laying around, I would have done just that.
Comments
It's not so easy when you have real money at stake and long position with significant tax consequences.
For some people it's easier when they risk nothing or have no portfolio.
Simple: Don't invest in the market if it makes you worry.
Plenty of other options to invest. If it makes you worry than you really should get out.
And since Macs are counted in full the quarter they're sold while iPhone 3G money is spread out over years, we could get a little bump in the road in the current quarter, IMHO.
Nope the iPhone 3G is accounted for at the moment of purchase. They sell 'full' price to the operator/carrier and what those do afterwards to subsidize the machine is of no importance to Apple.
Basically the same model has been thoroughly tested by the likes of Nokia, Motorola and co. over the last decade. Apple tried to change the rules of engagement by getting airtime revenue, but ultimately either failed or had common sense prevailing by adopting a proven and robust busines model. (By adding MobileMe on top of that they still will have recurring income - ebven I who had only local backups until now is considering moving part of the BU towards MM -ie the iTunes part)
Almost all of Apple's stores worldwide have spent the last roughly two weeks doing little else than selling 1-2M iPhone 3Gs, which could be really bad for the top line in this quarter.
I don't believe this paints an accurate picture of store activity since the opening weekend when stocks of iPhones were high. I visited a very popular Apple store on Thursday, 7/17, which was advertised on-line as having no stock, but which had been receiving "small" shipments of iPhones each day. iPhone customers still lined up in anticipation. Once the shipment arrived (at about 11am), iPhone customers were only being handled two-at-a-time, leaving many to wait in a rather short line for hours. Meanwhile, all other customers were being served by several (perhaps 10 or more) other sales staff.
Furthermore, it was made clear during the conference call that the lower profit margin would be due to new, presently unannounced product and the expected pricing model.
I could not agree more. Apple is going strong and still moving up. And although there is an entire company behind him, no one can doubt or undervalue the effects of Steve's leadership and insight upon Apple this past decade. He has forever changed the tech industry and he has inspired people to push the envelope of what is possible. It is because of Mr. Jobs that we are here posting in this forum. He rekindled the flame of Apple lovers. Here's to hoping that his health is on the mend, because an Apple without Steve Jobs is just wrong.
That's all well and good, but the hard truth is that he is going to leave someday. There will, indeed, be an Apple without Steve Jobs.
Companies have to be bigger than their CEOs, because they are long-term investment vehicles, and shareholders are right to want at least inklings of a post-Jobs game plan; secrecy can work for product releases, but it doesn't work here. The euphoria they've been riding from sales growth has masked the core fallacy of a company that is dependent on a single person - or, at least, a company that has consistently projected that image.
There's nothing wrong with recognizing Jobs' inestimable importance to the company. The problem is when that's all we do, right up until the point where he departs, for one reason or another - and then customers, investors, and Apple management stare into the oncoming headlights.
RESPECT?
Jobs does not respect shareholder value.
BIG, BIG money is at stake because of his unwillingness to be truthful with owners of AAPL.
Where's the RESPECT?
Believe it or not he most likely has a life. I would hope the shareholders of apple would be last on his list of people to please if he is running through hard times health wise. Apple, despite what many think, is not entirely dependent on his presence. He doesn't owe you a damn thing.
Basically, who the hell do you think you are? Try to imagine what he is going through.
Unfortunately they did. Their cars look very juvenile with a playstation inspired interior.
And Porsche became very boyish as well when managers (Wendelin Wiedeking) took over the helmet. The 911 interior is a joke, as is the beefy exterior:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVytpZs2haQ
Jobs is a great leader who manages to inspire his very talented crew. I really wish him the best as Apple should not become an exercise in brand marketing (like Porsche & Ferrari).
Not to get too off topic but Ferrari has seen a great resurgence in Formula 1 and in fact all Formula 1 cars will use Ferrari engines. And the worst interior ever in a Ferrari was the F40 which was Enzo's swan song.
I think people forget that great leaders are not infallible (Apple has made many high profile mistakes) and that even though the largest public figure gets most of the praise and damnation in any large organization, it is the organization and it's philosophy that carry on the tradition. There have been a great many organizations that lost a great leader and carried on. In many cases, they excelled and expanded.
What will happen with Apple is purely speculation but if Apple folds when Steve Jobs steps down or dies then he wasn't really that great a leader anyway because great leaders prepare for the inevitable.
A bit different from the statements made by Apple during WWDC, eh?
...and in fact all Formula 1 cars will use Ferrari engines.
what are you smoking???
You're an idiot. Go away.
As responsible people which many of you Apple liberals aren't, some things are bigger than yourself. I am an Apple fan from afar. I like the technology and innovation, but mostly what I find compelling to like is the competition with Microsoft. Back to my original statement, the company's revival, and you must admit, is due to Steve Jobs. On a personal level, from what I know, he's an arrogant self-loathing SOB. He abandoned his children and responsibilities to pursue self indulgence. That being said, he cannot leave Apple for health reasons, he must come clean to share-holders to whom he's ultimately beholding to. I hope it's not life threatening as some are hyping, but sometimes, you must think of others before ones self. To many of you, I know this is foreign...
"Steve's health is a private matter"
A bit different from the statements made by Apple during WWDC, eh?
It's a bit like saying no comment to an accusation, people think you are hiding something if you won't do a flat denial.
It's a bit like saying no comment to an accusation, people think you are hiding something if you won't do a flat denial.
As versus a denial, where people know you are lying anyway.
Believe it or not he most likely has a life. I would hope the shareholders of apple would be last on his list of people to please if he is running through hard times health wise. Apple, despite what many think, is not entirely dependent on his presence. He doesn't owe you a damn thing.
Basically, who the hell do you think you are? Try to imagine what he is going through.
You speak as would a person with no money. I"ll tell you who I am - an AAPL shareholder with ownership
rights. I have no idea what Mr Jobs is going through because he has not explained his status.
If he and Apple Directors shirk their fiduciary duty resulting in a significant financial loss because of lack of disclosure: they can be sure a class action awaits their defense, professionally and Jobs estate personally.
You speak as would a person with no money. I"ll tell you who I am - an AAPL shareholder with ownership
rights. I have no idea what Mr Jobs is going through because he has not explained his status.
Yes, he has. He explained years ago that he underwent surgery and was cured.
Let the man do his job.
You speak as would a person with no money. I"ll tell you who I am - an AAPL shareholder with ownership
rights. I have no idea what Mr Jobs is going through because he has not explained his status.
If he and Apple Directors shirk their fiduciary duty resulting in a significant financial loss because of lack of disclosure: they can be sure a class action awaits their defense, professionally and Jobs estate personally.
(1) Your rights as a shareholder do not trump a manager's privacy rights; indeed, even the board has to be careful about what and how much they can demand, since medical records are a private matter. This is quite different from your rights to ask to look under the hood over something like options backdating, since that dealt with a disclosure issue.
(2) Under the US system of governance and its essential premise, the so-called "business judgment rule" (look it up), the board is given fairly wide latitude in decisions that involve the weighing of pros and cons: for instance, if they can reasonably show (in the event of, say, a shareholder lawsuit from types such as yourself) that, in their business judgement, the benefit/cost ratio of keeping Steve on with all of its attendant uncertainties more than outweighed that of not having him at the helm, all you will do is waste time and money.
...the benefit/cost ratio of keeping Steve on with all of its attendant uncertainties more than outweighed that of not having him at the helm...
This is probably the case, but for Steve, I hope he gets better. I just saw Wall-E, it's pretty darn amazing considering 3/4 of the movie has no dialogue whatsoever.
I fear such a visionary may be finding fewer and fewer places in our current world, he may be destined for bigger and greater things.
Unfortunately they did. Their cars look very juvenile with a playstation inspired interior.
And Porsche became very boyish as well when managers (Wendelin Wiedeking) took over the helmet. The 911 interior is a joke, as is the beefy exterior:
Jobs is a great leader who manages to inspire his very talented crew. I really wish him the best as Apple should not become an exercise in brand marketing (like Porsche & Ferrari).
You forgot to mention that Porsche also became highly profitable, as it never was before, while still build exciting cars.. and that it now own the majority of VW, one of the biggest car manufacturers of the world.
It is completely possible to have the best of both worlds.
And about Porsche being a joke... it is a question of taste, not a fact.
As for Steve, as others have said, he has a founder's clout and charisma. Remember the days when he was gone from Apple? There just wasn't the same passion at the top, the purity of vision. Apple will survive, but it will be fundamentally different. Gone will be that "I started this; this is my baby" mentality. Apple will be hard pressed to find someone with both the designer/perfectionist vision that Steve has and who will be listened to/tolerated by the BoD.
As for product transition: As much as I'd like to see a mini-tower, I don't think it will happen. The big benefit of a tower is being able to upgrade the guts. 1) Apple doesn't do motherboard or CPU upgrades. 2) Apple supports very few video card options. So beyond internal drives, I don't see much use for a mini-tower.
I like the speculation that Apple will switch to some now expensive component - like SSD - and absorb the cost in the short-term, while letting margins grow as time goes by.
For wild speculation: I'd like to see something like the Touch replace the trackpad. i.e. a display and input device. Applications could change the input display as needed. The Nintendo DS has proven that two displays, one dedicated to user input can work well.
- Jasen.
RESPECT?
Jobs does not respect shareholder value.
BIG, BIG money is at stake because of his unwillingness to be truthful with owners of AAPL.
Where's the RESPECT?
You own a piece of the company. You don't own a piece of Steve. Grow up and be a man, for God's sake.
Anyone who bought at today's low of 148 made 14 bucks a share by the end of the day. I wish I had some cash laying around, I would have done just that.