Apple may report unprecedented 3 million Mac quarter

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
The investment banking division of the Royal Bank of Canada said Thursday that Apple's back-to-school promotion is showing signs that it will drive the company to a record-smashing quarter in which sales of Macs could exceed 3 million.



In a report to clients, analyst Mike Abramsky cited proprietary data from his firm's recent IQ/ChangeWave Panel which "suggests that massive back-to-school Mac sales" could see the Cupertino-based company report year-over-year growth of 44 percent to 3.04 million units for the three month period ending September.



The study of 4,400 respondents demonstrates "resilience despite a sluggish consumer spending environment," and would also signal 22 percent growth on a sequential basis, the analyst said. Apple shipped a record 2.496 million systems for the most recent quarter ended June.



Specifically, Abramsky pointed to "unprecedented intentions" on the part of consumers during what has historically been only Apple's second strongest Mac quarter. His firm's study found that 34 percent of respondents intend to purchase a Mac notebook in the next 90 days, while another 30 percent plan to buy a Mac desktop.



"We forecast Apple's global PC share to rise to 4.2 percent [in 2009], from 2.9 percent [in 2007]," he said, adding that every 25 basis points of market share gain will equate to $1 billion in incremental revenue and $0.15 in per share earnings.



Two factors appear to be driving the uncharacteristically large surge in fiscal fourth quarter Mac sales, according to the analyst. The first is Apple's back-to-school promotion, which offers a $299 rebate for a free iPod touch to educational customers who purchase a qualifying Mac system through September 15th. The second is an "iPhone halo effect" where 17 percent of consumers in the RBC study say they're now "more likely" to purchase a Mac after having purchased and experienced the new iPhone 3G.



Abramsky has been one most accurate analysts covering Apple in recent quarters, besting all other Wall Street folk tracked by AppleInsider in predicting the results of Apple's second fiscal quarter. He was also the only analyst to accurately predict the company would sell 1 million units of the iPhone 3G in its first weekend on the market.



Abramsky reiterated his Outperform rating and $200 price target on shares of the Mac maker. He estimates sales of 5.1 million iPhones for the company's September quarter and also anticipates new Mac notebooks and iPods will arrive later this quarter or early next.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 50
    boogabooga Posts: 1,079member
    We're still a month from the quarter's end and two from quarterly results. If they're saying 3M now, analysts will be estimating about 4.5M by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank...
  • Reply 2 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    His firm's study found that 34 percent of respondents intend to purchase a Mac notebook in the next 90 days, while another 30 percent plan to buy a Mac desktop.



    64% going to buy Apple.

    Huge.
  • Reply 3 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    We're still a month from the quarter's end and two from quarterly results. If they're saying 3M now, it'll be about 4.5M estimated by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank...



    Now that's just crazy talk.

    He didn't say they SOLD 3 million, he said they would SELL three million by the end.

    Read more carefully.
  • Reply 4 of 50
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Pairing Macs with free iPods gave birth to this I'd say.
  • Reply 5 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Pairing Macs with free iPods gave birth to this I'd say.



    No doubt-I wish I had gotten my iPod touch for FREE



    Back when I was in school-NO BODY wanted a Mac-for obvious reasons, the John Sculley and Jean Louis Gassee days...
  • Reply 6 of 50
    zunxzunx Posts: 620member
    The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.
  • Reply 7 of 50
    Doesn't it always seem like no matter how much Apple sells, WS is always expecting higher. I don't quite understand why this happens quarter after quarter. Still Apple should have a blowout quarter due to both high Mac and iPhone sales. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but it seems there is a good possibility from what I've been reading. Let's hope that all those teenagers and college students that have been hanging out at the Apple Stores have saved up money all summer long and are ready to make their Mac notebook purchases and get that free iPod to go along with it. That is really great incentive and clears inventory at the same time.



    What bugs the heck out of me is that Apple is doing far better than it's peers and gets no reward for that. Why don't investors just jump on the Apple streak and make some money?
  • Reply 8 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zunx View Post


    The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.



    Whilst i take your point about Microsoft, i don't think people are ignorant of Apple, more that Apple Macs appear too expensive for the masses.



    Case in point are the sales of iPhone 3G in the UK compared to the 1st generation. I know lots of people who wanted an iPhone 1st time around, but thought it too expensive. Those very same people now own an iPhone 3G as it's now perceived as good value. When, or if, Apple lower their prices on their computer lines, then you'll see a surge in Apple market share not just here in the UK, but th world.



    People are aware of the Apple brand but just can't justify the extra cash.
  • Reply 9 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    What bugs the heck out of me is that Apple is doing far better than it's peers and gets no reward for that. Why don't investors just jump on the Apple streak and make some money?



    Erm, look at AAPL's past two years. Many people made much money. Many more will. You could have made a bit of money in the past year if you timed it right with momentum trading, but that's not what investing is about. Trading volume has tripled since 2005 from its historical levels. And we've all heard how much the execs have made on stocks. Plus the numbers. $24B revenue... $8B profit... 28% return on equity... sounds pretty rewarding to me!
  • Reply 10 of 50
    ktappektappe Posts: 770member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post


    Quote:

    If they're saying 3M now, analysts will be estimating about 4.5M by the time the quarter ends, and when Apple sells 3.2M the stock will tank.



    Now that's just crazy talk. He didn't say they SOLD 3 million, he said they would SELL three million by the end.



    It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.
  • Reply 11 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    The investment banking division of the Royal Bank of Canada said Thursday that Apple's back-to-school promotion is showing signs that it will drive the company to a record-smashing quarter in which sales of Macs could exceed 3 million... for the three month period ending September.



    remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.



    if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?
  • Reply 12 of 50
    Id rather be 10% market share and stay a little expensive. No reason to compete with Dell. Apple has a strong brand and thats worth more in the long run.
  • Reply 13 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by farshad View Post


    Id rather be 10% market share and stay a little expensive. No reason to compete with Dell. Apple has a strong brand and thats worth more in the long run.



    Couldn't agree more
  • Reply 14 of 50
    I can't hardly wait for the new Mac models to come out! I search the web every single day trying to know a little more about it! I'm looking forward to buy a MBP! I use windows since de begining and linux for 10 years or so but I really do want to get a Mac and enjoy OSX! If they come out with nice specs, I'm sure they will sell well! Come on, Apple! Show us what you got!
  • Reply 15 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ktappe View Post


    It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.



    Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.



    One time.



    One example.



    Ever.



    Doesn't happen, it's crazy talk.



    NOBODY, is going to put their repuation on the line by saying 3 million Macs after looking at how the school sales are going, and then raise it to 4.5 million after the bulk of the school sales already happened to get you to the 3 million estimate. Crazy.



    The people that makes estimates, look at the sales they can see, the factors that can accelerate or decelerate that sales rate, plug that into a full quarter run rate, and come up with a number for the entire quarter.



    When you see someone raise an estimate by 50% within a couple weeks with ZERO new marketing efforts coming out.... you let us all know.

    Until then.....\
  • Reply 16 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zunx View Post


    The day people know about the Mac (say, 25% market share for Mac), Windows will be history in three years. Windows is only maintained by inertia and ignorance.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mr Underhill View Post


    Whilst i take your point about Microsoft, i don't think it's that people are ignorant of Apple, more that Apple Macs appear too expensive for the masses.



    Case in point are the sales of iPhone 3G in the UK compared to the 1st generation. I know lots of people who wanted an iPhone 1st time round, but thought it too expensive. Those same people now own iPhone 3G's as it's now perceived as great value. When, or if, Apple lower their prices on their computer lines, then you'll see a surge in Apple market share not just here in the UK, but th world.



    People know the Apple brand very well, but just can't justify the cash layout.



    I think we can all agree that most Macs are competitively priced when it comes to the hardware. But when it comes to the AVERAGE PC buyer (not those with money or those in IT, business, the arts, or science) but the blue collar workers, the healthcare professionals, the education field (which is slowly changing), or the poorest among us...I just don't see the Windows waning so quickly. I'd imagine the least amount of time for Windows to become a memory would be 8-10 years...and that's IF Apple expands their lineup AND includes some cheap models. How can Apple completely overtake the industry when their cheapest notebook is $1099 (an doesn't even burn DVDs like some $500 laptops do?) and the cheapest desktop is $599 (not including a monitor, keyboard, or mouse)??????? I would not be surprised if 75% of PCs sold are ones which cost less that $1000!



    Again, this is NOT to say that Apple products aren't worth the money...it's just that most who buy PCs do so for the cost (and of course inertia and ignorance play a part). Also, many industries are PC-centric. I for one, am an engineer and there is only 1 CAD software which runs on my Mac...but since it's not one which is widely used and not compatible with others, I am stuck using AutoCAD via Windows/BootCamp. Another example would be healthcare...has anyone ever seen a Mac used in the healthcare field?? Not just that, but many machines (from ATMs, self-checkouts, etc.) run a special type of Windows. Also 99% of computers in public schools are PCs, why?...because they're inexpensive. While there have always been a few Macs around most schools, PCs are king. Of course software will be developed for OS X in these industries if Macs start to rule...but most people don't buy a new computer every year!! Many companies, almost all schools, and a large minority of people keep their computers for at least 5 years.



    While I certainly don't want to seem too critical (I love my MacBook Pro and will never buy a PC), but we must admit there are many hurdles before the world opens their eyes to the greatness of Macs. I would love to see the day Macs rule...but my pessimistic side doesn't see that happening that soon!
  • Reply 17 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rtdunham View Post


    remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.



    if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?



    Usually, the introduction of new models is geared to keep a lead on competitiors, and set up for the winter season. They usually set the table and run with their plan. It is not unusal to end a selling season with new products or dressing up the old line. (MBA introduced just after XMas, Touch introduced at end of BTS sales)



    Don't look for slowing model sales to trigger the new models.

    They have new models on the planning board for some time before they launch.

    Everybody knows they are launching new models based on the SJ comments and the mere fact it's September. (even sans comments by SJ..... it would still be September and the plans from last winter for what would be released are going to play out)
  • Reply 18 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by rtdunham View Post


    remember apple knows how sales are going before we ever read about it.



    if the apple's internally aware of booming laptop sales along the lines of this prediction, isn't it unlikely it'll be eager to introduce new models (normally a strategy to boost lagging sales)?



    Apple tends to refresh models as the technology becomes available. But as far as new models go, I think they introduce them simply to increase sales...not necessarily "lagging sales".
  • Reply 19 of 50
    boogabooga Posts: 1,079member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post


    Show me ONE example of a credible analyst raising estimates two months into a quarter, and then raising them again BY FIFTY PERCENT within thirty days.



    One time.



    One example.



    Ever.



    Doesn't happen, it's crazy talk.



    NOBODY, is going to put their repuation on the line by saying 3 million Macs after looking at how the school sales are going, and then raise it to 4.5 million after the bulk of the school sales already happened to get you to the 3 million estimate. Crazy.



    The people that makes estimates, look at the sales they can see, the factors that can accelerate or decelerate that sales rate, plug that into a full quarter run rate, and come up with a number for the entire quarter.



    When you see someone raise an estimate by 50% within a couple weeks with ZERO new marketing efforts coming out.... you let us all know.

    Until then.....\



    I didn't say it would be the same analyst. Last quarter, and the quarter before that, and etc... each analyst came out with a higher estimate than the last until it got ridiculous for both Mac and iPod estimated sales.
  • Reply 20 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Booga View Post


    I didn't say it would be the same analyst. Last quarter, and the quarter before that, and etc... each analyst came out with a higher estimate than the last until it got ridiculous for both Mac and iPod estimated sales.



    Show me a credible analyst last quarter, that went nuts and was off by 50% on mac numbers.

    In fact, show me EVER AN ANALYST that was off on Mac sales by 50% in the last two years.



    It has never happened, saying it happens all the time is just crazy talk.
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