I don't own a blackberry and have never used one so can someone explain to me why it's so much better?
There are lot so reasons why the BB is the best choice for corporate users, but those reasons are fading as phones are getting smarter, cheaper and faster.
I think it's more about the input than anything else. For most people, I think the virtual keyboard is good enough, but the more a person needs to type on a phone, the more a physical keyboard can help them. It's a situation where one size doesn't really fit all, Apple made a decision that suits their target customers best, but most BB devices have a physical keyboard, which fits a different kind of user better.
Speaking of keyboards, check out the CNet video in the link below:
I went into a AT&T store recently with someone who needed something done with a new Blackberry. The iPhone display was tucked away in the corner of the store by the front window where you were rather unlikely to ever see it. (In fact, I had to ask the salesman if they had any on display.)
Still, I have been (and remain) disappointed at the lack of basic capabilities with the iPhone. People keep hinting that voice dialing will come with a 3d party app sooner or later, but why wasn't this basic feature set taken care of at its initial release.
There is no turn by turn GPS "at the present time". Blackberrys have this.
I saw the "AT&T Navigator" on a corporate Blackberry. Why wasn't it available/preinstalled on the iPhone? It has both voice dialing and turn by turn GPS among other things.
Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
About the short stocking...I do not know the specifics in this case, but Apple have done it before and I would not be at all surprised if they were doing it again.
Sitting on the sidelines, I remain underwhelmed. Nice job, Steve. Not!
I went into a AT&T store recently with someone who needed something done with a new Blackberry. The iPhone display was tucked away in the corner of the store by the front window where you were rather unlikely to ever see it. (In fact, I had to ask the salesman if they had any on display.)
I've been to several AT&T stores and they are had posters up on the windows and the demo right when you walk in the door, so this isn't how all AT&T stores function.
I haven't been recently, but which may be why my experiences differ from yours. The iPhone was released 2 months ago. AT&T has new exclusive phones coming out so they would probably want to promote these devices.
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Still, I have been (and remain) disappointed at the lack of basic capabilities with the iPhone. People keep hinting that voice dialing will come with a 3d party app sooner or later, but why wasn't this basic feature set taken care of at its initial release.
There is no turn by turn GPS "at the present time". Blackberrys have this.
All phones fail in some category. If a BB fits your needs then go for it. RiM is a great company and have quality devices. Now they are competing with the iPhone by adding more consumer related features and going with WebKit as their browser engine so they will only get better.
Quote:
I saw the "AT&T Navigator" on a corporate Blackberry. Why wasn't it available/preinstalled on the iPhone? It has both voice dialing and turn by turn GPS among other things.
The iPhone being on AT&T's network does not mean that software that runs on the BB OS will work on the iPhone OS. This is major undertaking. If you think that simple features are available on the iPhone it's hard to imagine that a complete rewrite of a Navigator would be available out of the gate.
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Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
From one perspective, AT&T would be stupid to ever recommend an iPhone, and Apple isn't much hurt by recommendations to get a BlackBerry. Because people seem to have been buying all the iPhones Apple can make, regardless. Every iPhone AT&T sells to one person is a lost sale to another person who wants one and walks away. My local AT&T store told me that some days they have them in stock, some days not. Still after all this time.
So, may as well offer the person a BlackBerry first. If they take it, that's a sale, AND they can still sell the iPhone to someone else.
Now, that availability balance may be settling with time, but so far, I bet AT&T's actions haven't reduced iPhone total sales much if it all.
If supply is an issue then you're certainly right: sell the customer what you have.
However, there is another big issue; sales people are, for the most part, motivated by only one thing: personal reward. If there's more money to be made in pushing BlackBerry then even an iPhone fan is likely to put personal gain ahead of personal preference.
I don't know if things are still they way they were 5 years ago, but back then you could make more money every day in SPIFs than you got in wages and commission simply by selling one brand instead of another.
Apple never pays salespeople to push their products and is less than generous with any of their "partners" so you're likely to see reluctance to push Apple products at any location where they sell other brands.
I love the iphone and have gotten better at typing on it. But for a pure e-mailer, blackberry is nice, simple and easy to type on to me.
I'd be selling the pros of integrated iphone and some of the apps personally.
Reliability for iphone is comparatively poor - I've had 4 crashes that all required hours to recover from - and backing up takes hours for me too. Perhaps only Apple product that has lower average reliability than competitors (but then much more functionality).
Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
Is there a source to support this? I'd read that Japanese sales are strong.
In resuming its coverage of Apple, JMP Securities has issued a note warning of slower growth due to global economic factors and indicating that AT&T retail stores were quick to recommend RIM BlackBerry phones over the iPhone 3G, particularly for email.
Little room for upside surprises
The firm assigned Apple a Market Perform rating, citing new product cycles for the iPhone 3G and new iPods released this week but also noting a deceleration in year over year growth and warning that margins "appear to be near peak levels."
In a summary that referenced the slow selling Lisa from the early 80s and the Newton from the mid 90s, JMP stated, "Our concern with AAPL stock is that we believe there is little room for upside surprises."
[...]
Product lineup
"Apple has done an exceptional job of gaining [Mac] market share over the last several years," JMP noted, although it continued by saying, "Given the deteriorating macroeconomic environment, we believe it is unlikely that Apple will be able to match the 2007 feat in 2008."
Among iPods, the report highlighted that Apple's year over year average sales growth over the last four quarters have slowed to "a leisurely 9%, well below the double-and triple-digit growth enjoyed a few years ago." The firm noted that high end iPod sales are being replaced by iPhones, "leaving a skew to lower-end shuffle and nano products."
JMP called the iPhone a "hit product" that caught Nokia, RIM, Motorola, Palm and Samsung "flat-footed," but noted competitors are working to make "notable changes in strategy to deal with the iPhone."
"Samsung and LG have started to roll out iPhone 'clones' with touch screens, like the Samsung Instinct and LG Dare. While we believe these phones are not as good as the iPhone, we believe they have caused pricing issues," the report stated.
Apple in the overall economy
JMP also warned that Apple's stock is looking expensive in comparison with other large-capitalization technology stocks, stating, "We note that Apple has been growing much faster than its comparable companies, though many have higher margins."
The firm also stated "Because Apple has invested heavily in its own chain of retail stores, an overall economic slowdown or slowing demand for the company's products will not only affect sales growth but also impact profit margins due to the fixed-cost nature of the retail stores."
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you realy believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 milion stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
Its good at being a fine example of something written by someone who has no clue, I'l give you that.
I dont have time to argue all your points , but lets take the first one..
"1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls"
For starters US share is currently nearer 8%.
When at 3%, people said it would never rise.
At 5%, people said it would never rise.
I guarantee that when the new macbooks arrive Mac's will clear 10% by a large margin.
So thats the US, with huge room for further growth. Then there is the rest of the world...which is bigger than you may realize, where the mac has a much smaller penetration and PLENTY of room for growth.
You also forget that the iphone and other subsequent portable devices taken to their evolutionary conclusion, will fill the low cost portable computing segment you believe apple does not address.
Also, the affordability of a mac increases year on year. Originally people had to mortgage their houses to buy a computer, now even the homeless have mac's here in the UK. And incase you compare past prices, remember to calculate for inflation.
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
Apple has 4% of the worldwide PC market, but they have 66% of the US consumer market for machines over $1000. I don't know what their percentages are for all US consumers for units sold, but it doesn't really matter since the profits dwindling to nothing as you get closer to those $400 PCs.
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2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
Gateway already did what lesser businessman would do and failed miserably. High traffic areas are expensive for a reason. Apple retail stores make more money per square foot than any other retail chain, bar none. Their sales and growth would only be negatively affected if these stores didn't exist.
Quote:
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you realy believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 milion stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
The Apple Stores have done more for pushing the Mac as a viable option than anything else Apple has tried. Again, the rents are high because the exposure is high. Try opening a store in a back alley in a bad neighborhood and try selling higher-end computers.
Quote:
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
So having cancer disqualifies you from being able to make a company profitable? As a stock holder, I'm pretty happy that Jobs and others works for stock options. There are too many execs who come on board with a big cash bonus without yet doing anything, then take a huge paycheck and leave a couple years latter after knocking the company down a peg. I find it odd that you'd rather have an unproven executive running a company that they have no passion for, over someone whose net worth is proportionate to how well he can manage a company. Crazy!
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you really believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 million stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
Overall, a very good report.
1 - I wouldn't say 300 to 500. It really depends on which model you're talking about. I'd say the MB is only $100 too high while the MBP is 300+. But I also think it's cap is actually 10%, 5% is not that difficult and given the iPod and iPhone halo effect you'll see it pass the 8.5% it had last quarter (no idea why you think 5% is that hard since they got 8.5% last quarter)
"Macs garnered an 8.5 percent share of the U.S. PC market during the second quarter of the year"
2 - The operative term is "high traffic" Yes, of course the rent is high but if they didn't make 1) a boat load of money and 2) increase the all important "mind share" they wouldn't be there. According to your hypothesis why would any company anywhere rent a high-rent facility?
3 - Overpaid is relative - Apple has revenue of over 30 billion dollars and you think a 100 million stock option (less than 1/2 of 1% of yearly revenue) is too high? Of course 100 million to me would be awesome but if Apple doesn't give these people a lot of money guess what - another company will pick them off. That's the only reason CEO's and other high ranking officers get paid what they do. Companies, stupid as they are, pay huge amounts of money to CEO's and their VP's because they are afraid to lose them - it's actually capitalism in it's purest form.
If your CEO isn't coming up with new ideas and helping to further the company (Bill Gates) than by all means bring up a new guy but when your CEO is still being hands on and brings great value to the company there's no reason to get rid of him but because it's been a while - that's ignorant. Also, what about the head of iPhone programming? He's a fairly young guy so that kinda debunks your theory on Apple not rewarding the talent. (Scott Forstall is quite young for a Senior VP in a company as large as Apple)
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
:
1. I suppose next you're going to tell me that no one buys BMWs outside of Germany. Macs and iPods are quality products that are competitively and appropriately priced. BMWs cost more than Volkswagens or Hondas. I could also go into detail about the lower total cost of ownership for Macs, but I won't waste that much time on a troll such as yourself.
2. First of all, Apple has the highest sales per square foot of any national retailer. Look it up. Also, it's a real stretch to say that all the stores are located in "luxury" locations. Most are in newer and nicer malls, but few would be confused with Rodeo Drive. Nicer locations=higher traffic=higher sales.
3. I agree they are overpaid, but that's true for almost all Fortune 500 companies. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and the middle class is shrinking. I won't say anymore on that subject for fear of starting a political flame war. \
Has anyone had any luck with actually setting up an exchange account on your iPhone? The apple tutorial really sucks. No doubt setting up Exchange email is a big issue for corporate users.
I've set up a couple and never had to look at any tutorial... no problem.
And MM has no Mail issues and has had no mail issues for well over a month.
I also wonder why these salesmen don't point that the blackberry's major strong point isn't e-mail it's corporate e-mail. The number of people who walk around with blackberrys (not the candy bar form factors, the big ones) are almost all paid for by their companies. I only know of 1 person who has a full up blackberry solely for personal use and, actually, they do some business on the side so I guess that doesn't count... Anybody else have the same experiences?
Has anyone had any luck with actually setting up an exchange account on your iPhone? The apple tutorial really sucks. No doubt setting up Exchange email is a big issue for corporate users.
Works perfectly if your IT team has the Exchange Server set up properly with all the recent updates. Apple has good tutorials for the IT staff.
My company still calls all "smart phones" Blackberries but more and more of my associates are moving to iPhone. Mine is a 1st generation and it works perfectly.
I think that many AT&T folks promote Blackberry because that is what they own themselves. If their clients have email issues, I'll bet that most of the clients have IT staffs that can't stand Apple.
When I was at AT&T everybody was in line to get Blackberries.
I will never understand how some f-Tard wall street Face-Rapist gets away with dumping all over AAPL and nobody kicks him in the taint for making statements like:
That's right, he said "ONLY 38% GROWTH."
How in Holy Fuckdom do you call yourself a "Securities Firm" whilst perpetrating such ass-hattery?
Tell me how many publicly-traded companies can project a 31% increase in profits YOY with 99% certainty, and become shat upon by these stinky-fingered dinks?
They are a bunch of idiot-ass-munching market-manipulating sons-of-whores and should all have their asses removed.
AMEN! The comment "little room for surprises" is incredibly shortsighted. First of all, the Apple's recent 3-5 year performance record and the resulting expectations are so high already that it's no wonder they believe there isn't a lot of room for "surprise". But "surprise" doesn't equate to opportunity! The stupid stock market may run on hype, emotions, and surprise, but Apple's business runs on product sales, and there is plenty of potential for that metric.
1) The overall computer market is a limp d***, meanwhile Mac sales are seeing 40+% year-over-year growth and giant leaps in marketshare! And even though the PC market itself isn't growing much, Apple currently only has a roughly ~10% consumer marketshare, and they have barely touched the enterprise market. They have all the room in the world to grow in units sales!
2) Even in a time of global economic uncertainty, the advanced celllphone/smartphone market is still white-hot, and Apple's position is even BETTER than their Mac position. You are talking about an enormous potential global market of billions, and Apple has barely gotten started. They have arguably one of the best and most hyped device in the industry, with at least a 18-24+ month lead-time on competitors for advanced software with mobile OSX and the app store.
And I would argue to "never say never" about surprises since this is Apple we are talking about. They could hold a press conference tomorrow and show off some amazing multi-touch laptop/tablet hybrid that would melt your face just like the introduction of the iPhone. You KNOW it will happen sometime in the next 12-14 months. This company probably has some *amazing* creations in their development pipeline... NEVER bet against Steve Jobs!
I also wonder why these salesmen don't point that the blackberry's major strong point isn't e-mail it's corporate e-mail. The number of people who walk around with blackberrys (not the candy bar form factors, the big ones) are almost all paid for by their companies. I only know of 1 person who has a full up blackberry solely for personal use and, actually, they do some business on the side so I guess that doesn't count... Anybody else have the same experiences?
Weird. My experience is pretty much exactly opposite. Almost everyone I know over 21 has a Blackberry. If I had to put a number on it, I would say I personally know 80+ friends/family/business acquaintances with BB's. I don't really know anyone in the corporate world besides maybe 10 sales reps. I am a small business owner and most people I deal with are small business owners.
I carry a Sprint Blackberry Curve and a 1st gen iphone with pay-as-you go sim and the $20 unlimited medianet on it. The iphone is used for internet on the go only. The webbrowsing experience cannot be beat compared to other mobile browsers. The blackberry handles ALL my email INSTANTLY. I have 2 gmail, 1 yahoo, and 6 email addresses to 4 webstores I run. I am able to answer customer questions 24 hours a day instantly, the way BB handles email is invaluable to my business. If I had to pay $500 a month for the service, I would pay it, as it easily, easily pays for itself in just 1 week. Luckily I dont have to pay anywhere near that. I pay $60 a month for 1250 anytime minutes, unlimited mobile to mobile, nights and weekends at 7pm, unlimited text messaging, and Blackberry service.
I am hoping that someone very quickly hacks the bluetooth in the new ipod touches to be able to connect to my Blackberry. That way I can sell the iphone and just use the Touch connected to my blackberry for the internet and save $20 a month.
Apple I think will find itself in a pinch shortly. In the past few months the netbook market has exploded. These new tiny computers by Acer, Asus, Lenovo, and Dell are going to indirectly take a lot of Apple customers. I bought the Acer Aspire One recently for $349 and have already put and sold my macbook air on ebay for $1,400. I LOVE Mac OS X, I NEVER in a million years thought I would buy a windows computer again. I have 2 macs in my house and macs in all my stores. These little computers have all of the ports and portability that the macbook air SHOULD have had. Not only will they draw people away from the macbook air, they will draw people away from the iphone/ipod touch, as they are small enough to fit in a purse, lunchbox, car console, etc. They are just the right size and so cheaply priced that they are going to be a big problem in Apple's future.
Now if Apple came out with their own Netbook with a 9" screen, 1280x800 resolution, 3 usb ports, built in NOT crippled bluetooth, sd card slot, multitouch, and user changeable battery at 2.5 lbs. Us Mac lovers would gladly pay double what the other companies are asking for similar machines.
Hopefully Apple will answer the call before the netbooks hurt them to badly.
Comments
I don't own a blackberry and have never used one so can someone explain to me why it's so much better?
There are lot so reasons why the BB is the best choice for corporate users, but those reasons are fading as phones are getting smarter, cheaper and faster.
I think it's more about the input than anything else. For most people, I think the virtual keyboard is good enough, but the more a person needs to type on a phone, the more a physical keyboard can help them. It's a situation where one size doesn't really fit all, Apple made a decision that suits their target customers best, but most BB devices have a physical keyboard, which fits a different kind of user better.
Speaking of keyboards, check out the CNet video in the link below:
Still, I have been (and remain) disappointed at the lack of basic capabilities with the iPhone. People keep hinting that voice dialing will come with a 3d party app sooner or later, but why wasn't this basic feature set taken care of at its initial release.
There is no turn by turn GPS "at the present time". Blackberrys have this.
I saw the "AT&T Navigator" on a corporate Blackberry. Why wasn't it available/preinstalled on the iPhone? It has both voice dialing and turn by turn GPS among other things.
Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
About the short stocking...I do not know the specifics in this case, but Apple have done it before and I would not be at all surprised if they were doing it again.
Sitting on the sidelines, I remain underwhelmed. Nice job, Steve. Not!
I went into a AT&T store recently with someone who needed something done with a new Blackberry. The iPhone display was tucked away in the corner of the store by the front window where you were rather unlikely to ever see it. (In fact, I had to ask the salesman if they had any on display.)
I've been to several AT&T stores and they are had posters up on the windows and the demo right when you walk in the door, so this isn't how all AT&T stores function.
I haven't been recently, but which may be why my experiences differ from yours. The iPhone was released 2 months ago. AT&T has new exclusive phones coming out so they would probably want to promote these devices.
Still, I have been (and remain) disappointed at the lack of basic capabilities with the iPhone. People keep hinting that voice dialing will come with a 3d party app sooner or later, but why wasn't this basic feature set taken care of at its initial release.
There is no turn by turn GPS "at the present time". Blackberrys have this.
All phones fail in some category. If a BB fits your needs then go for it. RiM is a great company and have quality devices. Now they are competing with the iPhone by adding more consumer related features and going with WebKit as their browser engine so they will only get better.
I saw the "AT&T Navigator" on a corporate Blackberry. Why wasn't it available/preinstalled on the iPhone? It has both voice dialing and turn by turn GPS among other things.
The iPhone being on AT&T's network does not mean that software that runs on the BB OS will work on the iPhone OS. This is major undertaking. If you think that simple features are available on the iPhone it's hard to imagine that a complete rewrite of a Navigator would be available out of the gate.
Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
There is evidence to this being false.
From one perspective, AT&T would be stupid to ever recommend an iPhone, and Apple isn't much hurt by recommendations to get a BlackBerry. Because people seem to have been buying all the iPhones Apple can make, regardless. Every iPhone AT&T sells to one person is a lost sale to another person who wants one and walks away. My local AT&T store told me that some days they have them in stock, some days not. Still after all this time.
So, may as well offer the person a BlackBerry first. If they take it, that's a sale, AND they can still sell the iPhone to someone else.
Now, that availability balance may be settling with time, but so far, I bet AT&T's actions haven't reduced iPhone total sales much if it all.
If supply is an issue then you're certainly right: sell the customer what you have.
However, there is another big issue; sales people are, for the most part, motivated by only one thing: personal reward. If there's more money to be made in pushing BlackBerry then even an iPhone fan is likely to put personal gain ahead of personal preference.
I don't know if things are still they way they were 5 years ago, but back then you could make more money every day in SPIFs than you got in wages and commission simply by selling one brand instead of another.
Apple never pays salespeople to push their products and is less than generous with any of their "partners" so you're likely to see reluctance to push Apple products at any location where they sell other brands.
I'd be selling the pros of integrated iphone and some of the apps personally.
Reliability for iphone is comparatively poor - I've had 4 crashes that all required hours to recover from - and backing up takes hours for me too. Perhaps only Apple product that has lower average reliability than competitors (but then much more functionality).
Japanese market sales are reported to be very poor due to lack of features of other smartphones to which the Japanese consumers have become accustomed.
Is there a source to support this? I'd read that Japanese sales are strong.
In resuming its coverage of Apple, JMP Securities has issued a note warning of slower growth due to global economic factors and indicating that AT&T retail stores were quick to recommend RIM BlackBerry phones over the iPhone 3G, particularly for email.
Little room for upside surprises
The firm assigned Apple a Market Perform rating, citing new product cycles for the iPhone 3G and new iPods released this week but also noting a deceleration in year over year growth and warning that margins "appear to be near peak levels."
In a summary that referenced the slow selling Lisa from the early 80s and the Newton from the mid 90s, JMP stated, "Our concern with AAPL stock is that we believe there is little room for upside surprises."
[...]
Product lineup
"Apple has done an exceptional job of gaining [Mac] market share over the last several years," JMP noted, although it continued by saying, "Given the deteriorating macroeconomic environment, we believe it is unlikely that Apple will be able to match the 2007 feat in 2008."
Among iPods, the report highlighted that Apple's year over year average sales growth over the last four quarters have slowed to "a leisurely 9%, well below the double-and triple-digit growth enjoyed a few years ago." The firm noted that high end iPod sales are being replaced by iPhones, "leaving a skew to lower-end shuffle and nano products."
JMP called the iPhone a "hit product" that caught Nokia, RIM, Motorola, Palm and Samsung "flat-footed," but noted competitors are working to make "notable changes in strategy to deal with the iPhone."
"Samsung and LG have started to roll out iPhone 'clones' with touch screens, like the Samsung Instinct and LG Dare. While we believe these phones are not as good as the iPhone, we believe they have caused pricing issues," the report stated.
Apple in the overall economy
JMP also warned that Apple's stock is looking expensive in comparison with other large-capitalization technology stocks, stating, "We note that Apple has been growing much faster than its comparable companies, though many have higher margins."
The firm also stated "Because Apple has invested heavily in its own chain of retail stores, an overall economic slowdown or slowing demand for the company's products will not only affect sales growth but also impact profit margins due to the fixed-cost nature of the retail stores."
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you realy believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 milion stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
Overall, a very good report.
...
Overall, a very good report.
Its good at being a fine example of something written by someone who has no clue, I'l give you that.
I dont have time to argue all your points , but lets take the first one..
"1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls"
For starters US share is currently nearer 8%.
When at 3%, people said it would never rise.
At 5%, people said it would never rise.
I guarantee that when the new macbooks arrive Mac's will clear 10% by a large margin.
So thats the US, with huge room for further growth. Then there is the rest of the world...which is bigger than you may realize, where the mac has a much smaller penetration and PLENTY of room for growth.
You also forget that the iphone and other subsequent portable devices taken to their evolutionary conclusion, will fill the low cost portable computing segment you believe apple does not address.
Also, the affordability of a mac increases year on year. Originally people had to mortgage their houses to buy a computer, now even the homeless have mac's here in the UK. And incase you compare past prices, remember to calculate for inflation.
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
Apple has 4% of the worldwide PC market, but they have 66% of the US consumer market for machines over $1000. I don't know what their percentages are for all US consumers for units sold, but it doesn't really matter since the profits dwindling to nothing as you get closer to those $400 PCs.
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
Gateway already did what lesser businessman would do and failed miserably. High traffic areas are expensive for a reason. Apple retail stores make more money per square foot than any other retail chain, bar none. Their sales and growth would only be negatively affected if these stores didn't exist.
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you realy believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 milion stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
The Apple Stores have done more for pushing the Mac as a viable option than anything else Apple has tried. Again, the rents are high because the exposure is high. Try opening a store in a back alley in a bad neighborhood and try selling higher-end computers.
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
So having cancer disqualifies you from being able to make a company profitable? As a stock holder, I'm pretty happy that Jobs and others works for stock options. There are too many execs who come on board with a big cash bonus without yet doing anything, then take a huge paycheck and leave a couple years latter after knocking the company down a peg. I find it odd that you'd rather have an unproven executive running a company that they have no passion for, over someone whose net worth is proportionate to how well he can manage a company. Crazy!
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
For instance, do you really believe that Ron Johnson, VP of Apple retail stores, really deserve a $100 million stock option grant to reward him for opening 200 stores with extremely expensive rents and above average construction and decoration costs?
Ron Johnson is not the only executive who benefited from an undeserved stock option grant whose size negates any idea that Apple is run for profits, in a competitive manner, and with a view of offering Macs, iPods and iPhones at a lower, competitive price in a competitive market.
And there is also the absence of renewal of the management team whose CEO, besides battling cancer, has held office for more than 11 years, an unduly long period when you favor the long term growth of a company, fresh ideas, and promotions as a way to reward the most talented executives.
Overall, a very good report.
1 - I wouldn't say 300 to 500. It really depends on which model you're talking about. I'd say the MB is only $100 too high while the MBP is 300+. But I also think it's cap is actually 10%, 5% is not that difficult and given the iPod and iPhone halo effect you'll see it pass the 8.5% it had last quarter (no idea why you think 5% is that hard since they got 8.5% last quarter)
"Macs garnered an 8.5 percent share of the U.S. PC market during the second quarter of the year"
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...pc_vendor.html
2 - The operative term is "high traffic" Yes, of course the rent is high but if they didn't make 1) a boat load of money and 2) increase the all important "mind share" they wouldn't be there. According to your hypothesis why would any company anywhere rent a high-rent facility?
3 - Overpaid is relative - Apple has revenue of over 30 billion dollars and you think a 100 million stock option (less than 1/2 of 1% of yearly revenue) is too high? Of course 100 million to me would be awesome but if Apple doesn't give these people a lot of money guess what - another company will pick them off. That's the only reason CEO's and other high ranking officers get paid what they do. Companies, stupid as they are, pay huge amounts of money to CEO's and their VP's because they are afraid to lose them - it's actually capitalism in it's purest form.
If your CEO isn't coming up with new ideas and helping to further the company (Bill Gates) than by all means bring up a new guy but when your CEO is still being hands on and brings great value to the company there's no reason to get rid of him but because it's been a while - that's ignorant. Also, what about the head of iPhone programming? He's a fairly young guy so that kinda debunks your theory on Apple not rewarding the talent. (Scott Forstall is quite young for a Senior VP in a company as large as Apple)
At long last, a serious report based on facts and analysis, not speculation and wishful thinking.
Three points that were not emphasized enough in this summary or the report itself:
1- Macs are $300 to $500 too expensive for Apple to grow outside its base of 5% of U.S. consumers who are Mac faithfuls;
2- Apple retail stores are all located in high traffic, luxury, extremely expensive shopping districts so that rents are prohibitive, impacting the net profits made on every Mac sold through these stores;
3- Apple executives are overpaid through overly generous stock option grants where the Apple CEO and board of directors display the attitude of "it's not my money, anyhow".
:
1. I suppose next you're going to tell me that no one buys BMWs outside of Germany. Macs and iPods are quality products that are competitively and appropriately priced. BMWs cost more than Volkswagens or Hondas. I could also go into detail about the lower total cost of ownership for Macs, but I won't waste that much time on a troll such as yourself.
2. First of all, Apple has the highest sales per square foot of any national retailer. Look it up. Also, it's a real stretch to say that all the stores are located in "luxury" locations. Most are in newer and nicer malls, but few would be confused with Rodeo Drive. Nicer locations=higher traffic=higher sales.
3. I agree they are overpaid, but that's true for almost all Fortune 500 companies. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and the middle class is shrinking. I won't say anymore on that subject for fear of starting a political flame war.
AT&T reps just make the recommendation, right now with the Mobile Me issues, the RIM mail solution is just more reliable at this time..
The mail client on the iPhone has nothing to do with MobileMe.
The mail client can connect to most any POP/IMAP service.
The mail client on the iPhone has nothing to do with MobileMe.
The mail client can connect to most any POP/IMAP service.
And MM has no Mail issues and has had no mail issues for well over a month.
Has anyone had any luck with actually setting up an exchange account on your iPhone? The apple tutorial really sucks. No doubt setting up Exchange email is a big issue for corporate users.
I've set up a couple and never had to look at any tutorial... no problem.
And MM has no Mail issues and has had no mail issues for well over a month.
I also wonder why these salesmen don't point that the blackberry's major strong point isn't e-mail it's corporate e-mail. The number of people who walk around with blackberrys (not the candy bar form factors, the big ones) are almost all paid for by their companies. I only know of 1 person who has a full up blackberry solely for personal use and, actually, they do some business on the side so I guess that doesn't count... Anybody else have the same experiences?
Has anyone had any luck with actually setting up an exchange account on your iPhone? The apple tutorial really sucks. No doubt setting up Exchange email is a big issue for corporate users.
Works perfectly if your IT team has the Exchange Server set up properly with all the recent updates. Apple has good tutorials for the IT staff.
My company still calls all "smart phones" Blackberries but more and more of my associates are moving to iPhone. Mine is a 1st generation and it works perfectly.
I think that many AT&T folks promote Blackberry because that is what they own themselves. If their clients have email issues, I'll bet that most of the clients have IT staffs that can't stand Apple.
When I was at AT&T everybody was in line to get Blackberries.
I will never understand how some f-Tard wall street Face-Rapist gets away with dumping all over AAPL and nobody kicks him in the taint for making statements like:
That's right, he said "ONLY 38% GROWTH."
How in Holy Fuckdom do you call yourself a "Securities Firm" whilst perpetrating such ass-hattery?
Tell me how many publicly-traded companies can project a 31% increase in profits YOY with 99% certainty, and become shat upon by these stinky-fingered dinks?
They are a bunch of idiot-ass-munching market-manipulating sons-of-whores and should all have their asses removed.
AMEN! The comment "little room for surprises" is incredibly shortsighted. First of all, the Apple's recent 3-5 year performance record and the resulting expectations are so high already that it's no wonder they believe there isn't a lot of room for "surprise". But "surprise" doesn't equate to opportunity! The stupid stock market may run on hype, emotions, and surprise, but Apple's business runs on product sales, and there is plenty of potential for that metric.
1) The overall computer market is a limp d***, meanwhile Mac sales are seeing 40+% year-over-year growth and giant leaps in marketshare! And even though the PC market itself isn't growing much, Apple currently only has a roughly ~10% consumer marketshare, and they have barely touched the enterprise market. They have all the room in the world to grow in units sales!
2) Even in a time of global economic uncertainty, the advanced celllphone/smartphone market is still white-hot, and Apple's position is even BETTER than their Mac position. You are talking about an enormous potential global market of billions, and Apple has barely gotten started. They have arguably one of the best and most hyped device in the industry, with at least a 18-24+ month lead-time on competitors for advanced software with mobile OSX and the app store.
And I would argue to "never say never" about surprises since this is Apple we are talking about. They could hold a press conference tomorrow and show off some amazing multi-touch laptop/tablet hybrid that would melt your face just like the introduction of the iPhone. You KNOW it will happen sometime in the next 12-14 months. This company probably has some *amazing* creations in their development pipeline... NEVER bet against Steve Jobs!
When I was at AT&T everybody was in line to get Blackberries.
What are the actual numbers of RIMs sold relative to iPhones in the same time frame?
I'll take any of this (remotely) seriously - one way or the other - when there is a credible answer to that question.
I also wonder why these salesmen don't point that the blackberry's major strong point isn't e-mail it's corporate e-mail. The number of people who walk around with blackberrys (not the candy bar form factors, the big ones) are almost all paid for by their companies. I only know of 1 person who has a full up blackberry solely for personal use and, actually, they do some business on the side so I guess that doesn't count... Anybody else have the same experiences?
Weird. My experience is pretty much exactly opposite. Almost everyone I know over 21 has a Blackberry. If I had to put a number on it, I would say I personally know 80+ friends/family/business acquaintances with BB's. I don't really know anyone in the corporate world besides maybe 10 sales reps. I am a small business owner and most people I deal with are small business owners.
I carry a Sprint Blackberry Curve and a 1st gen iphone with pay-as-you go sim and the $20 unlimited medianet on it. The iphone is used for internet on the go only. The webbrowsing experience cannot be beat compared to other mobile browsers. The blackberry handles ALL my email INSTANTLY. I have 2 gmail, 1 yahoo, and 6 email addresses to 4 webstores I run. I am able to answer customer questions 24 hours a day instantly, the way BB handles email is invaluable to my business. If I had to pay $500 a month for the service, I would pay it, as it easily, easily pays for itself in just 1 week. Luckily I dont have to pay anywhere near that. I pay $60 a month for 1250 anytime minutes, unlimited mobile to mobile, nights and weekends at 7pm, unlimited text messaging, and Blackberry service.
I am hoping that someone very quickly hacks the bluetooth in the new ipod touches to be able to connect to my Blackberry. That way I can sell the iphone and just use the Touch connected to my blackberry for the internet and save $20 a month.
Apple I think will find itself in a pinch shortly. In the past few months the netbook market has exploded. These new tiny computers by Acer, Asus, Lenovo, and Dell are going to indirectly take a lot of Apple customers. I bought the Acer Aspire One recently for $349 and have already put and sold my macbook air on ebay for $1,400. I LOVE Mac OS X, I NEVER in a million years thought I would buy a windows computer again. I have 2 macs in my house and macs in all my stores. These little computers have all of the ports and portability that the macbook air SHOULD have had. Not only will they draw people away from the macbook air, they will draw people away from the iphone/ipod touch, as they are small enough to fit in a purse, lunchbox, car console, etc. They are just the right size and so cheaply priced that they are going to be a big problem in Apple's future.
Now if Apple came out with their own Netbook with a 9" screen, 1280x800 resolution, 3 usb ports, built in NOT crippled bluetooth, sd card slot, multitouch, and user changeable battery at 2.5 lbs. Us Mac lovers would gladly pay double what the other companies are asking for similar machines.
Hopefully Apple will answer the call before the netbooks hurt them to badly.