So, the current panic in the house has nothing whatsoever to do with the recent drop of Apple's shares? I'll bite. So what's the fundamental base for this drop then? That Apple's share in laptops is surging like hell? That iPhones are selling like hell? Hmmm, that doesn't fit, now does it?
There are a few factors.
Last week there was a false rumor that Jobs had a heart attack that dinged the price.
There were also a couple downgrades that don't seem to be based on Apple numbers at all, just the wild guess that the economy is bad so they assumed that people would stop buying Apple product.
Personally I think it's a great contrarian play since the price seems to be based on people panicking and not because apple is weak. The only question is whether to get in now or wait and see if it goes lower.
Almost everything I read is complete nonsense, written by people who are full of shit, who...
a) Have no idea about Apples business model
b) Will financially benefit by seeing Apple fail
c) Are attention seeking morons looking for page hits
It works both ways. Apple news is always very polarizing - either they're the second coming of Jesus or they're a company in crisis. There's no middle-ground, no-one looking at the company objectively and without bias.
Apple's intense secrecy and paranoia (see: the recent iPhone NDA announcement) doesn't help things either. Their own hype machine builds Apple up to a God-like status. When reality doesn't match expectations, bad things happen.
Their stock, like many other tech stocks in the past, has probably been over-valued. They're an industry leading company but they're not perfect and they're certainly not immune to macro-economic effects.
Last week there was a false rumor that Jobs had a heart attack that dinged the price.
There were also a couple downgrades that don't seem to be based on Apple numbers at all, just the wild guess that the economy is bad so they assumed that people would stop buying Apple product.
Personally I think it's a great contrarian play since the price seems to be based on people panicking and not because apple is weak. The only question is whether to get in now or wait and see if it goes lower.
Any opinions on that?
I personally believe that it would be terrible to miss aapl at this price, to hang on longer may mean missing the rocket on the way back up.
One of 3 dates will be the catalyst IMO,
a) oct 14,
b) quarterly results,
c) or next quarterly results.
There is a slight possibility that this coming quarterly results could be negatively span by the media even though in general they will no doubt be good.
There is a slight possibility that this coming quarterly results could be negatively span by the media even though in general they will no doubt be good.
It'll be good, but I doubt it will be good enough, especially when looking at year-over-year growth. It'll probably outshine all the other PC vendor's growth, but the stock will suffer. Then we'll hear Apple's conservative Q1-2008 predictions, which will drop it even more.
The issues with the stock are not Apple's fault, we'll just have to wait for the economic fear to subside before we start seeing some real growth in the stock value.
The issues with the stock are not Apple's fault, we'll just have to wait for the economic fear to subside before we start seeing some real growth in the stock value.
Exactly. People are even discussing a <i>depression</i>. In this climate of fear, it's quite unpredictable how low is AAPL's going to reach.
The market is down, yes...but haven't I been reading stories here on AI talking about how Apple is expected to grow despite the economic drag? So AAPL goes from $200 a few months ago down to $90...when they are pumping out ever-more Macs, iPhones, and iTunes?? Again, I'm not naive...I realize the whole market is down...but 55%???? Can we blame this on the "speculators" too???
OK... not to get too technical here, but Apple has a beta of around 2 (a measure of the sensitivity of the stock's returns to market movements; the market itself has a beta of 1, by definition) -- i.e., on average, AAPL would be expected to drop by about 2% for every 1% drop in the market.
The market is down about 30% from its high for the year.
Once again the naysayers are proved wrong. When will people learn!?
Estimates aren't proof.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dorotea
Apple is trading at a lower price because the total market is going down. Doesn't take much to understand that. Look at the business/finance info before asking silly questions!!!
I think a major part of the real root cause is short-term thinking. Among many other factors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuisDias
Exactly. People are even discussing a <i>depression</i>. In this climate of fear, it's quite unpredictable how low is AAPL's going to reach.
That's quite unfortunate too, the fear and discussions are out of whack for the most part. The stories and articles explaining why the fears are overblown don't seem to get much attention. The fearmongering is what brings in the hits, the ratings, etc.
I'm skeptical. Interesting deduction, but the IMEA numbers would likely include a possible future sale that may occur 3 or 6 months down the line. I'd wait for Apple's conference call or a press release myself. It's not to say I don't believe they'll sell 10m, but now, great if true, but I'm skeptical.
I'm skeptical. Interesting deduction, but the IMEA numbers would likely include a possible future sale that may occur 3 or 6 months down the line. I'd wait for Apple's conference call or a press release myself. It's not to say I don't believe they'll sell 10m, but now, great if true, but I'm skeptical.
I seriously doubt Apple has 3-6 of inventory on hand.
Apple's getting hammered because lots of people are losing their savings and should be worried about how long they're going to keep their jobs. Not as much pocket money this fall, which means less Macbooks and iPods and iPhones for the kids as back-to-school/xmas gifts, which means less sales for Apple.
At this point, the financial crisis is hitting middle class folks super hard, as nobody knows what's going to happen to their savings/investments/jobs in the financial&banking sector, and those are the folks that buy Apple products. Hopefully Apple is about to release some cheaper products soon, as there probably aren't going to be too many in the market for expensive Macbook Airs/iPhones, etc. for the next little while.
Sure, all the Apple news looks great, but the figures are all pre-market crash/investment bank failures, so we won't really know what the impact for a little while. I was at an Apple store here in Copenhagen on Saturday to look at the new iPods, and the guy working there said that sales have been noticeably slower over the past week and a half, and here in Denmark the media and government are still downplaying things considerably. In England and the US, where the panic seems a lot higher, I bet the entire electronics industry is suffering from some seriously slow sales.
The fact that Apple doesn't have any low-priced products other than the shuffle hurts them, as folk who "must" purchase a new computer or phone are now more likely to buy a budget-type product than 3 weeks ago...
I fully expect the Apple share price to continue moving downward at a faster rate than most companies, just because it isn't as diverse price-wise as an Acer or Dell type company, and that will hurt in the coming months.
I seriously doubt Apple has 3-6 of inventory on hand.
Yeah, I agree with you there! Brain fart. Inventory is running 4-6 weeks for Macs. Not sure about iPhones. However, inventory and when phones are sold shouldn't be that tightly coupled. I'm wondering if they ramped up the inventory for the Christmas season though. There could be a lot of inventory right now.
I personally believe that it would be terrible to miss aapl at this price, to hang on longer may mean missing the rocket on the way back up.
One of 3 dates will be the catalyst IMO,
a) oct 14,
b) quarterly results,
c) or next quarterly results.
Oct 14 is out. Whatever the "brick" is, it will disappoint by what it isn't. And remember that the Cube was introduced in the teeth of a recession (enough said about That).
Quarterly results are irrelevant at this point. Everyone KNOWS that they will be spectacular, so if they are, so what; and if they aren't, guess what. What's going on with the rest of the PC world is irrelevant.
Next quarterly results are the best bet, but with what will probably be happening at that time, I suspect that it will take several more quarters of Significantly Outperforming the tech sector before APPL gets its luster back. Just remember, there is always the "OK, so this quarter was good, but just wait for the next one, blah, blah, blah."
Comments
So, the current panic in the house has nothing whatsoever to do with the recent drop of Apple's shares? I'll bite. So what's the fundamental base for this drop then? That Apple's share in laptops is surging like hell? That iPhones are selling like hell? Hmmm, that doesn't fit, now does it?
There are a few factors.
Last week there was a false rumor that Jobs had a heart attack that dinged the price.
There were also a couple downgrades that don't seem to be based on Apple numbers at all, just the wild guess that the economy is bad so they assumed that people would stop buying Apple product.
Personally I think it's a great contrarian play since the price seems to be based on people panicking and not because apple is weak. The only question is whether to get in now or wait and see if it goes lower.
Any opinions on that?
Almost everything I read is complete nonsense, written by people who are full of shit, who...
a) Have no idea about Apples business model
b) Will financially benefit by seeing Apple fail
c) Are attention seeking morons looking for page hits
It works both ways. Apple news is always very polarizing - either they're the second coming of Jesus or they're a company in crisis. There's no middle-ground, no-one looking at the company objectively and without bias.
Apple's intense secrecy and paranoia (see: the recent iPhone NDA announcement) doesn't help things either. Their own hype machine builds Apple up to a God-like status. When reality doesn't match expectations, bad things happen.
Their stock, like many other tech stocks in the past, has probably been over-valued. They're an industry leading company but they're not perfect and they're certainly not immune to macro-economic effects.
Indeed, but I felt that was covered under news reporters of type 'B' who "Will financially benefit by seeing Apple fail"
Oops. Sorry!
Just wait for Halloween. .
Uh maybe Apple will trick or treat us in Belgium as for the moment
iphone Belgium
The iPhone3G has arrived in Belgium
Unfortunately we are out of stock on our website.
Three months now. It seems that each mobistar Center recieves 6-8 iPhones a week....on a random day at a random time.....
There are a few factors.
Last week there was a false rumor that Jobs had a heart attack that dinged the price.
There were also a couple downgrades that don't seem to be based on Apple numbers at all, just the wild guess that the economy is bad so they assumed that people would stop buying Apple product.
Personally I think it's a great contrarian play since the price seems to be based on people panicking and not because apple is weak. The only question is whether to get in now or wait and see if it goes lower.
Any opinions on that?
I personally believe that it would be terrible to miss aapl at this price, to hang on longer may mean missing the rocket on the way back up.
One of 3 dates will be the catalyst IMO,
a) oct 14,
b) quarterly results,
c) or next quarterly results.
There is a slight possibility that this coming quarterly results could be negatively span by the media even though in general they will no doubt be good.
I have just bought some more myself.
There is a slight possibility that this coming quarterly results could be negatively span by the media even though in general they will no doubt be good.
It'll be good, but I doubt it will be good enough, especially when looking at year-over-year growth. It'll probably outshine all the other PC vendor's growth, but the stock will suffer. Then we'll hear Apple's conservative Q1-2008 predictions, which will drop it even more.
The issues with the stock are not Apple's fault, we'll just have to wait for the economic fear to subside before we start seeing some real growth in the stock value.
The issues with the stock are not Apple's fault, we'll just have to wait for the economic fear to subside before we start seeing some real growth in the stock value.
Exactly. People are even discussing a <i>depression</i>. In this climate of fear, it's quite unpredictable how low is AAPL's going to reach.
Wow. Yahoo Finance now has real time quotes.
Google Finance has had it for a few weeks now...
The market is down, yes...but haven't I been reading stories here on AI talking about how Apple is expected to grow despite the economic drag? So AAPL goes from $200 a few months ago down to $90...when they are pumping out ever-more Macs, iPhones, and iTunes?? Again, I'm not naive...I realize the whole market is down...but 55%???? Can we blame this on the "speculators" too???
OK... not to get too technical here, but Apple has a beta of around 2 (a measure of the sensitivity of the stock's returns to market movements; the market itself has a beta of 1, by definition) -- i.e., on average, AAPL would be expected to drop by about 2% for every 1% drop in the market.
The market is down about 30% from its high for the year.
Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.
Behold the power of 3G. Toldja so.
Too bad the stock market appears not to give a crap right now. Maybe in a few months.
...
Once again the naysayers are proved wrong. When will people learn!?
Estimates aren't proof.
Apple is trading at a lower price because the total market is going down. Doesn't take much to understand that. Look at the business/finance info before asking silly questions!!!
I think a major part of the real root cause is short-term thinking. Among many other factors.
Exactly. People are even discussing a <i>depression</i>. In this climate of fear, it's quite unpredictable how low is AAPL's going to reach.
That's quite unfortunate too, the fear and discussions are out of whack for the most part. The stories and articles explaining why the fears are overblown don't seem to get much attention. The fearmongering is what brings in the hits, the ratings, etc.
Estimates aren't proof.
If sales are not above 10mil i will eat my cat.
I'm skeptical. Interesting deduction, but the IMEA numbers would likely include a possible future sale that may occur 3 or 6 months down the line. I'd wait for Apple's conference call or a press release myself. It's not to say I don't believe they'll sell 10m, but now, great if true, but I'm skeptical.
I seriously doubt Apple has 3-6 of inventory on hand.
about the sales of the iPhone, or in other case what caused Apple to exceed even their own estimates.
At this point, the financial crisis is hitting middle class folks super hard, as nobody knows what's going to happen to their savings/investments/jobs in the financial&banking sector, and those are the folks that buy Apple products. Hopefully Apple is about to release some cheaper products soon, as there probably aren't going to be too many in the market for expensive Macbook Airs/iPhones, etc. for the next little while.
Sure, all the Apple news looks great, but the figures are all pre-market crash/investment bank failures, so we won't really know what the impact for a little while. I was at an Apple store here in Copenhagen on Saturday to look at the new iPods, and the guy working there said that sales have been noticeably slower over the past week and a half, and here in Denmark the media and government are still downplaying things considerably. In England and the US, where the panic seems a lot higher, I bet the entire electronics industry is suffering from some seriously slow sales.
The fact that Apple doesn't have any low-priced products other than the shuffle hurts them, as folk who "must" purchase a new computer or phone are now more likely to buy a budget-type product than 3 weeks ago...
I fully expect the Apple share price to continue moving downward at a faster rate than most companies, just because it isn't as diverse price-wise as an Acer or Dell type company, and that will hurt in the coming months.
I seriously doubt Apple has 3-6 of inventory on hand.
Yeah, I agree with you there! Brain fart. Inventory is running 4-6 weeks for Macs. Not sure about iPhones. However, inventory and when phones are sold shouldn't be that tightly coupled. I'm wondering if they ramped up the inventory for the Christmas season though. There could be a lot of inventory right now.
I personally believe that it would be terrible to miss aapl at this price, to hang on longer may mean missing the rocket on the way back up.
One of 3 dates will be the catalyst IMO,
a) oct 14,
b) quarterly results,
c) or next quarterly results.
Oct 14 is out. Whatever the "brick" is, it will disappoint by what it isn't. And remember that the Cube was introduced in the teeth of a recession (enough said about That).
Quarterly results are irrelevant at this point. Everyone KNOWS that they will be spectacular, so if they are, so what; and if they aren't, guess what. What's going on with the rest of the PC world is irrelevant.
Next quarterly results are the best bet, but with what will probably be happening at that time, I suspect that it will take several more quarters of Significantly Outperforming the tech sector before APPL gets its luster back. Just remember, there is always the "OK, so this quarter was good, but just wait for the next one, blah, blah, blah."
I would like to know what factors led to many analysts were wrong so widely in their estimations
about the sales of the iPhone, or in other case what caused Apple to exceed even their own estimates.
Analysts talk rubbish.
&
Apple has a habit of deliberately underestimating.
Behold the power of 3G. Toldja so.
Too bad the stock market appears not to give a crap right now. Maybe in a few months.
...
In surveys the App Store and $200 price proved more popular reasons to buy the phone over 3G.