I think it's fairly certain that nokia will take a huge hit over the next few years. And the iPhone will be significantly to blame.
You make a great point, but one thing to consider is that some people simply do not want an iPhone. It might be a safe bet ( I do not have number for this, and it is a guess, so to the Appleistas get a life) to say that there are more people that do not want an iPhone as opposed to those that do. Considering that iPhones are in just about every country in the world, and there are no demand shortages, the iPhone will be another high-end choice for consumers.
I draw this conclusion from the phone users around me. Just about all see the iPhone as a glorified iPod with phone. Many see it as a "jack of all trades, master of none" type device. While several like it but find it lacking and Apple Nazi-like control oppressive which turns them off and into the arms of Nokia, Samsung, LG, etc.... Personally, I was more in the "iPhone is ok camp" until a few weeks ago and my Internet went down. I had to go purchase a Nokia so that I could tether my Mac to a phone to get some work done. Sorry but this is Apples fault as it is AT&T's. For 3 days as a modem, my iPhone was useless, and is more so as I have now become used to using my Nokia on a daily basis.
I don't see Apple lowering the iPhone 3G price even further than it is now for two reasons. One is that it already is priced lower than RIM's Blackberry Bold 9000 which here in Canada it's priced at $299.99 for the Bold. Second is that it cost more than $99.99 to make so there's no way Apple would be dumb enough to undercut their profit. Especially since they no longer profit share on the plans with the carriers.
The 666 number comes from Jobs comments during the conference call. He quoted the revenue from the iPhone and the sales number so it ain't difficult to work out the ASP even if you're an analyst!
And all this time I thought it meant Damien from The Omen or Ronald Wilson Reagan.
I draw this conclusion from the phone users around me. Just about all see the iPhone as a glorified iPod with phone. Many see it as a "jack of all trades, master of none" type device. While several like it but find it lacking and Apple Nazi-like control oppressive which turns them off and into the arms of Nokia, Samsung, LG, etc.... Personally, I was more in the "iPhone is ok camp" until a few weeks ago and my Internet went down. I had to go purchase a Nokia so that I could tether my Mac to a phone to get some work done. Sorry but this is Apples fault as it is AT&T's. For 3 days as a modem, my iPhone was useless, and is more so as I have now become used to using my Nokia on a daily basis.
There are USB sticks for that. You don't need to buy a new phone just to go online with your notebook. In Germany it so happens that T-Mobile allows you to use your USB stick under your iPhone contract at no extra charge. They send you a free 2nd sim card for your contract. AT&T would do the same if their 3G network was ready for more traffic.
I for one believe that 75 % of mobile phone users will prefer a smartphone over a regular mobile phone once they are well-designed and cheap enough. Apple has the good design (best on the market so far) and it will get the prices lower in time, so they are poised to become the market leader in smartphones.
There are USB sticks for that. You don't need to buy a new phone just to go online with your notebook. In Germany it so happens that T-Mobile allows you to use your USB stick under your iPhone contract at no extra charge. They send you a free 2nd sim card for your contract. AT&T would do the same if their 3G network was ready for more traffic.
I for one believe that 75 % of mobile phone users will prefer a smartphone over a regular mobile phone once they are well-designed and cheap enough. Apple has the good design (best on the market so far) and it will get the prices lower in time, so they are poised to become the market leader in smartphones.
I could not agree more with your second statement, but the point still remains there are maybe more people out there that want a smartphone that is not made by Apple. I think the fact that the iPhone is avail in most shops signals this. I expect Nokia ( the only real comp to Apple ) to take a dip until they release their TS phone. Not to mention that the N85 just got released and is expected to be a huge seller. I think Nokia will control the smartphone market but Apple will be ever present ready to pounce.
As for your first statement. It is great that T-Mobile lets you do this but the fact remains, I have a supposed smartphone that can not do the basics. Not so smart in my opinion. Also if AT&T's network is so crappy, that is their fault, and people really should get over apologizing for them. Other networks globally can more than handle high data loads so tethering is not a global problem where we should all suffer because of one piss poor operator.
instead of lowering the "artificial" price, keep the business model as it is and DO offer the iPhone fully unlocked at the price of their choosing, sold at Apple stores only. I hate the current straightjacket model where one can only use the phone with their appointed country's service provider.
I don't care if they sell the phone $500 or even $999 but let me decide which sim card I should put inside, which carrier, which plan and ability to switch carrier as I travel from country to country. $99? it's just a gimmick, your service providers' plan will increase, to make up with the initial loss. Free the iPhone, free us.
I honestly wouldn't mind that. An iPhone in the sub 100 dollar range. I still wouldn't buy it. No t-mobile. I'm fine with my nice $150 dollar phone from t-mobile that can't do half what the iPhone can do.
Same here. I'm OK with my lousy Samsung and iPod touch for now. No T-mo, no deal.
Thank you. Apple has already significantly dropped the price, TWICE.
The main impression I got from the article was not that it was saying Apple would necessarily drop the price further, but that their large margin gives them the opportunity to do so, in response to the current world economy.
I doubt a price drop is planned. But if in 3 months we are all bartering for food and digging for pennies from under the sofa cushions, Apple can drop the price to maintain sales/sales growth and still generate a healthy margin.
I would perhaps see a price drop in conjunction with capacity bumps, so 8GB/16GB/32GB for $149/$199/$299 or something like that. They're not going to reach Motorola RAZR depths or anything like that. If they are able to wait a few more months before doing this, then they're going to basically maintain their original margins due to continually dropping flash memory prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by adamroth
I'm surprised to see so many people arguing that such a scenario is far fetched. It's not, because it's happened before and because Steve Jobs practically telegraphed this move.
First, last year they dropped the price of the phone $200. It had been $600, then it was $400. Nothing's really changed this year. It's still a $600 phone, just that AT&T is subsidizing it. So they can drop the price $100 and still be making a killing.
Second, during the conference call, Jobs said 1) they're not overly concerned with bringing more handset models to market and 2) they are very concerned about not allowing competitors to offer product underneath their price "umbrella." Put those two comments together and there's one conclusion: they're going to drop the price.
The only question is when. I bet Apple doesn't know either. They'll let their sales data make that decision. It might be before the holidays.
i'm from Malaysia and i'm a fan of Apple product..especially iphone3G...i wish to get it here..but not from ebay...why Apple doesnt launch in my country!
i'm from Malaysia and i'm a fan of Apple product..especially iphone3G...i wish to get it here..but not from ebay...why Apple doesnt launch in my country!
Quite simple really. Contrary to what most will tell you here, Apple is not your friend, not trying to do anything for your country unless they can figure away to exploit you and your country for profit. If there was a profit motive in for Apple, you would have stores full of iPhones. Apple is no different than most companies though. In short, your country does not amount to squat, and until it appears on Apples radar as $ blip, you and your country will not exist.
the price of the phones is NOT the issue. hard drive is. a 32 gig phone or even higher would be more valuable. maybe drop the existing prices $50 and add a 32G for $349.
the real issue is the ATT prices. they switched from an iphone pricing plan to using the same plans as all smart phones. but that plan is expensive. especially since they dropped the inclusion of texting. split the difference between the plans on all smart phones and some folks would stop complaining. those on an Edge smartphone pay $10 for data, those with a 3G pay $20 for data and make unlimited texting $15. that's $35 total instead of the $50 they want now.
or show some real moves in improving coverage. 3G towers are like 1 in 30 right now outside of the most major cities. why should those folks have to pay for service they can't really use. cut them a break until tower saturation reaches a particular level and have it all upfront so no one is surprised when the price goes up.
Apple could also stop making the iPhone and get out of the Phone business (not that they will). Is this other potential action by Apple worth a news item?
if it was just a phone, I would agree. but it's not. so I don't see them stopping now.
Apple makes a TON of money off each iPhone sold -- not in the initial unit price, but in the amortized REAL cost of the unit for a two year contract.
Apple is making little to none of that money. ATT made an investment in the research and development of the phone. that's part of how they got the exclusive rights. so a huge chunk of Apple's share is going to pay back that investment.
I would hazard that Apple is only getting perhaps 5% of the contract money if that much. the rest goes to ATT for service and supposedly paying for more towers
I'd be willing to bet that sometime in the near future Apple and AT&T work out a deal to get the iPhone's selling price dropped a fair amount. I'd also look for a new iPhone about 2 years after the 3G launched. This would prime all the current 3G owners to sign new contracts as their contracts are expiring on their 3Gs to get the upgraded phone. I'd then look for apple to take an approach similar to what they're doing with the plastic macbooks and the current macbooks and sell the 3G for something like $99 and then the newer iPhone for $250 or so. I'd be almost shocked if you didn't start hearing rumors of a new iPhone around that time, as Apple wouldn't want buyers to "prematurely upgrade" and miss out on the new iPhone.
Comments
I can't see Apple selling such cheap Phone. That's not apple at all. If no-one ever noticed, Apple doesn't go by he rules. Apple creates rules.
The iPhone is already available on contracts with an entry price of $0 in several countries around the world.
Everyone knows by now it's the total cost of ownership (including all ongoing payments) that determines the value of what is being purchased.
I think it's fairly certain that nokia will take a huge hit over the next few years. And the iPhone will be significantly to blame.
You make a great point, but one thing to consider is that some people simply do not want an iPhone. It might be a safe bet ( I do not have number for this, and it is a guess, so to the Appleistas get a life) to say that there are more people that do not want an iPhone as opposed to those that do. Considering that iPhones are in just about every country in the world, and there are no demand shortages, the iPhone will be another high-end choice for consumers.
I draw this conclusion from the phone users around me. Just about all see the iPhone as a glorified iPod with phone. Many see it as a "jack of all trades, master of none" type device. While several like it but find it lacking and Apple Nazi-like control oppressive which turns them off and into the arms of Nokia, Samsung, LG, etc.... Personally, I was more in the "iPhone is ok camp" until a few weeks ago and my Internet went down. I had to go purchase a Nokia so that I could tether my Mac to a phone to get some work done. Sorry but this is Apples fault as it is AT&T's. For 3 days as a modem, my iPhone was useless, and is more so as I have now become used to using my Nokia on a daily basis.
While several like it but find it lacking and Apple Nazi-like control oppressive which turns them off and into the arms of Nokia, Samsung, LG, etc...
pretty sure Jobs isn't bursting into homes and setting up death-camps for people they catch using other phones, or even hacked iPhones.
pretty sure Jobs isn't bursting into homes and setting up death-camps for people they catch using other phones, or even hacked iPhones.
Not yet, but you know they can listen to every thing you say.
So does anyone really know what the Apple TV sales are? I'd like to know the actual numbers.
Wouldn't we all- they must be too embarrassing to release.
The 666 number comes from Jobs comments during the conference call. He quoted the revenue from the iPhone and the sales number so it ain't difficult to work out the ASP even if you're an analyst!
And all this time I thought it meant Damien from The Omen or Ronald Wilson Reagan.
I draw this conclusion from the phone users around me. Just about all see the iPhone as a glorified iPod with phone. Many see it as a "jack of all trades, master of none" type device. While several like it but find it lacking and Apple Nazi-like control oppressive which turns them off and into the arms of Nokia, Samsung, LG, etc.... Personally, I was more in the "iPhone is ok camp" until a few weeks ago and my Internet went down. I had to go purchase a Nokia so that I could tether my Mac to a phone to get some work done. Sorry but this is Apples fault as it is AT&T's. For 3 days as a modem, my iPhone was useless, and is more so as I have now become used to using my Nokia on a daily basis.
There are USB sticks for that. You don't need to buy a new phone just to go online with your notebook. In Germany it so happens that T-Mobile allows you to use your USB stick under your iPhone contract at no extra charge. They send you a free 2nd sim card for your contract. AT&T would do the same if their 3G network was ready for more traffic.
I for one believe that 75 % of mobile phone users will prefer a smartphone over a regular mobile phone once they are well-designed and cheap enough. Apple has the good design (best on the market so far) and it will get the prices lower in time, so they are poised to become the market leader in smartphones.
There are USB sticks for that. You don't need to buy a new phone just to go online with your notebook. In Germany it so happens that T-Mobile allows you to use your USB stick under your iPhone contract at no extra charge. They send you a free 2nd sim card for your contract. AT&T would do the same if their 3G network was ready for more traffic.
I for one believe that 75 % of mobile phone users will prefer a smartphone over a regular mobile phone once they are well-designed and cheap enough. Apple has the good design (best on the market so far) and it will get the prices lower in time, so they are poised to become the market leader in smartphones.
I could not agree more with your second statement, but the point still remains there are maybe more people out there that want a smartphone that is not made by Apple. I think the fact that the iPhone is avail in most shops signals this. I expect Nokia ( the only real comp to Apple ) to take a dip until they release their TS phone. Not to mention that the N85 just got released and is expected to be a huge seller. I think Nokia will control the smartphone market but Apple will be ever present ready to pounce.
As for your first statement. It is great that T-Mobile lets you do this but the fact remains, I have a supposed smartphone that can not do the basics. Not so smart in my opinion. Also if AT&T's network is so crappy, that is their fault, and people really should get over apologizing for them. Other networks globally can more than handle high data loads so tethering is not a global problem where we should all suffer because of one piss poor operator.
Apple seen having leeway to sell iPhone at $99
instead of lowering the "artificial" price, keep the business model as it is and DO offer the iPhone fully unlocked at the price of their choosing, sold at Apple stores only. I hate the current straightjacket model where one can only use the phone with their appointed country's service provider.
I don't care if they sell the phone $500 or even $999 but let me decide which sim card I should put inside, which carrier, which plan and ability to switch carrier as I travel from country to country. $99? it's just a gimmick, your service providers' plan will increase, to make up with the initial loss. Free the iPhone, free us.
I mean really, who is this guy? A Shaw Wu wannabe?
Would that make him a "Wannawu"?
I honestly wouldn't mind that. An iPhone in the sub 100 dollar range. I still wouldn't buy it. No t-mobile. I'm fine with my nice $150 dollar phone from t-mobile that can't do half what the iPhone can do.
Same here. I'm OK with my lousy Samsung and iPod touch for now. No T-mo, no deal.
Would that make him a "Wannawu"?
Sweet
The main impression I got from the article was not that it was saying Apple would necessarily drop the price further, but that their large margin gives them the opportunity to do so, in response to the current world economy.
I doubt a price drop is planned. But if in 3 months we are all bartering for food and digging for pennies from under the sofa cushions, Apple can drop the price to maintain sales/sales growth and still generate a healthy margin.
I would perhaps see a price drop in conjunction with capacity bumps, so 8GB/16GB/32GB for $149/$199/$299 or something like that. They're not going to reach Motorola RAZR depths or anything like that. If they are able to wait a few more months before doing this, then they're going to basically maintain their original margins due to continually dropping flash memory prices.
I'm surprised to see so many people arguing that such a scenario is far fetched. It's not, because it's happened before and because Steve Jobs practically telegraphed this move.
First, last year they dropped the price of the phone $200. It had been $600, then it was $400. Nothing's really changed this year. It's still a $600 phone, just that AT&T is subsidizing it. So they can drop the price $100 and still be making a killing.
Second, during the conference call, Jobs said 1) they're not overly concerned with bringing more handset models to market and 2) they are very concerned about not allowing competitors to offer product underneath their price "umbrella." Put those two comments together and there's one conclusion: they're going to drop the price.
The only question is when. I bet Apple doesn't know either. They'll let their sales data make that decision. It might be before the holidays.
www.justappledotcom.blogspot.com
i'm from Malaysia and i'm a fan of Apple product..especially iphone3G...i wish to get it here..but not from ebay...why Apple doesnt launch in my country!
www.justappledotcom.blogspot.com
Quite simple really. Contrary to what most will tell you here, Apple is not your friend, not trying to do anything for your country unless they can figure away to exploit you and your country for profit. If there was a profit motive in for Apple, you would have stores full of iPhones. Apple is no different than most companies though. In short, your country does not amount to squat, and until it appears on Apples radar as $ blip, you and your country will not exist.
Hope I wrapped it up for you.
the real issue is the ATT prices. they switched from an iphone pricing plan to using the same plans as all smart phones. but that plan is expensive. especially since they dropped the inclusion of texting. split the difference between the plans on all smart phones and some folks would stop complaining. those on an Edge smartphone pay $10 for data, those with a 3G pay $20 for data and make unlimited texting $15. that's $35 total instead of the $50 they want now.
or show some real moves in improving coverage. 3G towers are like 1 in 30 right now outside of the most major cities. why should those folks have to pay for service they can't really use. cut them a break until tower saturation reaches a particular level and have it all upfront so no one is surprised when the price goes up.
Apple could also stop making the iPhone and get out of the Phone business (not that they will). Is this other potential action by Apple worth a news item?
if it was just a phone, I would agree. but it's not. so I don't see them stopping now.
Apple makes a TON of money off each iPhone sold -- not in the initial unit price, but in the amortized REAL cost of the unit for a two year contract.
Apple is making little to none of that money. ATT made an investment in the research and development of the phone. that's part of how they got the exclusive rights. so a huge chunk of Apple's share is going to pay back that investment.
I would hazard that Apple is only getting perhaps 5% of the contract money if that much. the rest goes to ATT for service and supposedly paying for more towers