Apple sees Mac sales rise 28% amid latest notebook launch
A slowing global economy had little impact on Apple's computer business last month, as consumers willingly plunked down their cash for the company's new MacBook offerings, helping to drive Mac sales up more than 25 percent year-over-year.
According to data from market research firm NPD, which was relayed in a research note from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, sales of Macs during the month of October were up 28 percent compared to the same month one year ago. They benefitted largely from the October 14th launch of the Unibody MacBook (review) and MacBook Pro (review), which began shipping immediately thereafter.
Munster, who analyzes each month of NPD data as it arrives, said he'll need to await statistics from the months of November and December before making a definitive prediction on Apple's total Mac shipments for the company's fiscal first quarter ending the final week of December.
In the meantime, the analyst is using his experience and a recent study of sales at the Mac maker's national retail chain to issue a preliminary prediction of quarterly Mac sales of between 2.5 million to 2.7 million units -- a range generally in line with Wall Street's consensus of 2.6 million units.
"Given the MacBook launch in October, growth rates for Mac will likely decline in the months of November and December," he told clients. "That said, our 25 hours counting Macs in US Apple stores from November 9th-16th suggest Mac demand remains healthy, and was up 90 percent year-over-year, and down 5 percent sequentially."
While Munster admits that overall Mac sales are unlikely to be tracking at the 90 percent rate suggested by his recent in-store surveys, he said the study clearly demonstrates that sales of the systems remain healthy. He's modeling conservatively for Macs to post 13 percent growth next month, but did not make a prediction for the current month.
Meanwhile, NPD data on iPod sales shows the players remain strong sellers despite the advent of the iPhone, which includes all of the functions of the iPod touch family.
Compared to last October, sales were down 20 percent. But with the holiday shopping season just ahead, newly updated models on store shelves, and strong international demand, Munster believes Apple will still manage to sell anywhere from 18.5 million to 19 million units during the three-month period ending December.
Considering Apple sold 22.1 million units last December quarter, that would represent only a 14 to 16 percent yearly sales decline. However, the Piper Jaffray analyst said earlier this week he expects the company to also sell 6.4 million iPhones during the quarter, compared to 2.31 million last December quarter, suggesting the Cupertino-based firm will ship approximately 1 million more handheld products this holiday season than it did last.
"Despite the expectation for an extended consumer slowdown hitting the consumer electronics space, we believe Apple is well-positioned to weather the storm," he said. "The company has recently leveraged its unit volumes in the iPod, Mac, and iPhone businesses to lower prices moderately while generally maintaining margins."
According to data from market research firm NPD, which was relayed in a research note from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, sales of Macs during the month of October were up 28 percent compared to the same month one year ago. They benefitted largely from the October 14th launch of the Unibody MacBook (review) and MacBook Pro (review), which began shipping immediately thereafter.
Munster, who analyzes each month of NPD data as it arrives, said he'll need to await statistics from the months of November and December before making a definitive prediction on Apple's total Mac shipments for the company's fiscal first quarter ending the final week of December.
In the meantime, the analyst is using his experience and a recent study of sales at the Mac maker's national retail chain to issue a preliminary prediction of quarterly Mac sales of between 2.5 million to 2.7 million units -- a range generally in line with Wall Street's consensus of 2.6 million units.
"Given the MacBook launch in October, growth rates for Mac will likely decline in the months of November and December," he told clients. "That said, our 25 hours counting Macs in US Apple stores from November 9th-16th suggest Mac demand remains healthy, and was up 90 percent year-over-year, and down 5 percent sequentially."
While Munster admits that overall Mac sales are unlikely to be tracking at the 90 percent rate suggested by his recent in-store surveys, he said the study clearly demonstrates that sales of the systems remain healthy. He's modeling conservatively for Macs to post 13 percent growth next month, but did not make a prediction for the current month.
Meanwhile, NPD data on iPod sales shows the players remain strong sellers despite the advent of the iPhone, which includes all of the functions of the iPod touch family.
Compared to last October, sales were down 20 percent. But with the holiday shopping season just ahead, newly updated models on store shelves, and strong international demand, Munster believes Apple will still manage to sell anywhere from 18.5 million to 19 million units during the three-month period ending December.
Considering Apple sold 22.1 million units last December quarter, that would represent only a 14 to 16 percent yearly sales decline. However, the Piper Jaffray analyst said earlier this week he expects the company to also sell 6.4 million iPhones during the quarter, compared to 2.31 million last December quarter, suggesting the Cupertino-based firm will ship approximately 1 million more handheld products this holiday season than it did last.
"Despite the expectation for an extended consumer slowdown hitting the consumer electronics space, we believe Apple is well-positioned to weather the storm," he said. "The company has recently leveraged its unit volumes in the iPod, Mac, and iPhone businesses to lower prices moderately while generally maintaining margins."
Comments
Munster, who analyzes each month of NPD data as it arrives, said he'll need to await statistics from the months of November and December before making a definitive prediction on Apple's total Mac shipments for the company's fiscal first quarter ending the final week of December.
He needs the exact final sales stats from every month until the end of the quarter to "predict" the shipments for the end of that quarter?
now we know that before too long apple will be as big as they want to be, making even more money and have such a big client base that it is finally attractive for annoying computer nerds to come up with millions of mac-virusses..
great job, apple.
He needs the exact final sales stats from every month until the end of the quarter to "predict" the shipments for the end of that quarter?
Their predictions are just that. "Definitive predictions" are not "exact final sales," they are guesstimates. They are not actual numbers, which only Apple knows and releases during their quarterly conference calls. Any other numbers are in fact predictions usually based on watching sales/shipments that go out the door.
"yeah!" for apple attracting more and more common computer users now they have done with firewire and their support for the semi-pro users that have helped them to built this company.
now we know that before too long apple will be as big as they want to be, making even more money and have such a big client base that it is finally attractive for annoying computer nerds to come up with millions of mac-virusses..
great job, apple.
Yeah, global economy break-down. So people need EXTRA GLOSSY shiny products to compensate for it.
Working people with their matte attitudes aren't tolerated any more. Congratulations, Apple!
Shake-to-Analyze - it just randomizes the stock prices.
Apple should make a special version of the Stocks widget.
Shake-to-Analyze - it just randomizes the stock prices.
That would be the best
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The bad news: Apple is alienating their base to do so.
I can unfortunately see a switch in the not too distant future where Apple is the computer of choice for less demanding consumers and all those in the traditional creatives fields that the Mac once dominated have been forced to switch to windows.
First, that 28% growth rate for the month of October is deceivingly low. One must consider that demand dropped off for the beginning of October in anticipation of the refresh. The media all out paraded that Apple would release new Macs in mid-October and even Apple conceded that it saw a drop off in demand for the second half of September and in the weeks preceeding the launch as a result of the anticipated refreash. In the Q4 conference call, Tim Cook harped on this point when noting, "As you know, there were rampant rumors and lots of press reports about a potential portable transition and we saw some slowing towards particularly the final weeks of September and the initial weeks of October. However, once announcing last week, we saw a considerable rebound in sales and we are very, very optimistic about those results."
Thus, one can only surmise that the 28% growth rate, as stunning as it is, is not that reflective of the actual growth rate for October. Had Apple released the new Macs on October 1, one has to imagine that the growth rate would be much higher for October. Moreover, what this tells us for November and December is that even if the growth rate, whatever it was in the second half of October, drops off, Apple will probably still sell closer to 2.8 million macs. This is further supported by the in-store tracking that Munster provided which suggested that retail sales could be up some 90%. While that number is probably way off of the actual growth rate, its evidence of the fact that the actual growth rate is higher than suggested in his estimates. I think Munster is somewhat underestimating how well Mac sales must have done for the second half of October to get the growth rate up to 28%. I wouldn't be surprised if sales contracted for the first half of the month as users anticipated the imminent release of new Macs. That means that the 17 days of October where the new Macs went on sale must have yielded closer to a 40-50% growth rate. Thus, based on this reading of NPD data, I stand by my original estiamte of 2.8 million macs on the quarter, which contemplates a mere 20.7% overall growth rate on the quarter (which is lower than the 28% growth rate in October).
http://bullcross.blogspot.com/2008/1...estimates.html
The good news: Apple is finally attracting users from the windows side. All that brand capitol from the iPod and iPhone is paying off.
The bad news: Apple is alienating their base to do so.
I can unfortunately see a switch in the not too distant future where Apple is the computer of choice for less demanding consumers and all those in the traditional creatives fields that the Mac once dominated have been forced to switch to windows.
Right...because the lack of FW400 means Apple hates pros and folks that REALLY need good color aren't using Eizos anyway. In any case, the 30" ACD isn't glossy and neither is a Cintiq. BOTH of which can be used with a MacBook (not at the same time obviously...).
But hey, lets say you are right. Let's say I had a company that made widgets. I can serve the larger demographic that is less demanding with deep pockets or I can serve the smaller demographic that is whiney and wants cheaper mid-grade products to save a buck rather than buy my higher end widgets.
Wow, tough choice there.
In any case, Apple will never be the dominant OS/computer maker. They don't want to be.
Apple is alienating their base to do so.
Apple has always alienated their fanbase.
Lemon Bon Bon.
Right...because the lack of FW400 means Apple hates pros...
No, it means the only people Apple listens to are their own design team. Besides, Apple since when has Apple been the system for the least demanding user? For a computer company who was on the forefront of new technologies, they seem to be all too willing to give up those technologies if its in conflict with their design philosophy. The iBook/Macbook used to be unique, an affordable full featured notebook that was easy to carry. Now compared to affordable 13" notebooks from Dell, HP, and Toshiba, they seem all too ordinary. The PC makes are learning Apple's lessons while they're forgetting them.
...folks that REALLY need good color aren't using Eizos anyway. In any case, the 30" ACD isn't glossy and neither is a Cintiq. BOTH of which can be used with a MacBook (not at the same time obviously...)[/qutoe]
Its really hard to get them to fit in the notebook case. As for the 30" ACD, I wouldn't expect it to be around much longer seeing that the 23" got discontinued.
[qutoe]But hey, lets say you are right. Let's say I had a company that made widgets. I can serve the larger demographic that is less demanding with deep pockets or I can serve the smaller demographic that is whiney and wants cheaper mid-grade products to save a buck rather than buy my higher end widgets.
Wow, tough choice there.
I seem to remember you arguing that Apple is like Porsche and shouldn't bother with the normal people. Funny how your position seems to change depending which way the wind is blowing.
In any case, Apple will never be the dominant OS/computer maker. They don't want to be.
You might want to tell them that. The full on retail assault and the get a Mac ads say otherwise. Besides, didn't this contradict your last point?
Apple has always alienated their fanbase.
Lemon Bon Bon.
I seem to remember a day before the heads of Jobs and Ive grew four or five sizes when they catered to the case with great computers in useful and innovative machines witch new technologies. Now its glossy and thin, anything else is of secondary importance.
No, it means the only people Apple listens to are their own design team.
Besides, since when has Apple been the system for the least demanding user?
True dat.
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Now its glossy and thin, anything else is of secondary importance.
Yup. 'Thin uber alles' seems to be Apple's credo nowadays. Form over function.
Of course, the second you note that, you get accused of wanting Apple to make ugly thick bricks, in both phones and notebooks. Not that there could ever be anything like a middle ground... 'sexay' yet practical.
IIRC, Walt Mossberg, normally very pro-Apple, was complaining about how the battery life on the new MacBook Pros wasn't very good. Maybe using lower-capacity batteries (to save space, presumably) wasn't such a great plan.
Does anyone re-he-healllly give that much of a crap about a millimeter or two of added thickness?
I mean, besides Steve and Jony?
If the MB Pro were, say, 1.0 inches thick instead of 0.95 inches, would that suddenly be a 'no sale' for anyone?
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Apple has always alienated their fanbase.
Lemon Bon Bon.
I wouldn't say that Apple has alienated their fan base, if you're a true fan of Apple, you expect moves like this and like Apple because of it - Apple is more willing than any other computer maker to add (remove) technologies from new systems regardless of what the rest of the industry is doing or what current users believe is status quo. Apple is a dynamic company, always moving and evolving, and yes, that may mean alienating some users, but it is how Apple has always run its business; this same thing happened ten years ago when Apple dropped ADB in its consumer computer, the iMac, in favor of using USB. The "pro" model kept the ADB while also adding support for USB.
Does anyone re-he-healllly give that much of a crap about a millimeter or two of added thickness?
Well yes, they should. The smaller/thinner you can manufacturer something while at the same time keeping its rigidity and strength means you'll eventually be able to design new types of products. The purpose of the new unibody process wasn't solely to make it thinner, but also to design a way to make thinner devices more solid. Imagine being able to build a device as thin as an iPhone, but having a ten inch screen. The enclosure would have to made in a way to keep from warping or bending and destroying the screen or circuit boards. This is the end goal.
Well yes, they should. The smaller/thinner you can manufacturer something while at the same time keeping its rigidity and strength means you'll eventually be able to design new types of products. The purpose of the new unibody process wasn't solely to make it thinner, but also to design a way to make thinner devices more solid. Imagine being able to build a device as thin as an iPhone, but having a ten inch screen. The enclosure would have to made in a way to keep from warping or bending and destroying the screen or circuit boards. This is the end goal.
The question wasn't so much, "Is the unibody construction wonderful- yes? no? Discuss", or "Isn't progress grand?"; but rather, "Would a notebook or an iPhone being a millimeter or two thicker seriously impact your buying decision?"
As in, "Well, I woulda bought the MacBook Pro at 0.95 inches of thickness, but at 1.00" thick? Oh heck no. No sale!".
Does anyone really think like that?
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The question wasn't so much, "Is the unibody construction wonderful- yes? no? Discuss", or "Isn't progress grand?"; but rather, "Would a notebook or an iPhone being a millimeter or two thicker seriously impact your buying decision?"
As in, "Well, I woulda bought the MacBook Pro at 0.95 inches of thickness, but at 1.00" thick? Oh heck no. No sale!".
Does anyone really think like that?
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I would hope note, but I have to wonder sometimes.
The question wasn't so much, "Is the unibody construction wonderful- yes? no? Discuss", or "Isn't progress grand?", but rather, "Would a notebook or an iPhone being a millimeter or two thicker seriously impact your buying decision?"
As in, "Well, I woulda bought the MacBook Pro at 0.95 inches of thickness, but at 1.00" thick? Oh heck no. No sale!".
Does anyone really think like that?
...
I'm sure there are people out there who consider dimensions to be important, just as there seems to be people who wonder if there are people who think like that. Touting their ability to squeeze more into smaller boxes is really just a demonstration of progression. In the end, I don't really think it does matter, dimensions are just one aspect of overall design and "feel".