Cellphone vendors could exit business if economy remains bleak

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  • Reply 281 of 349
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Verizon has beaten AT&T basically every quarter in retail net adds since the first generation of iphone was launched. It's public record in their SEC filings. No need to read "estimates".



    You're talking postpaid, correct? If so, yeah, that's true. But throw prepaid into the mix, and ATT has won some quarters over VZW... overall net adds have gone back-and-forth between the two since the iPhone was launched.



    (But yes, VZW > ATT in postpaid).



    ...
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  • Reply 282 of 349
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    At some point, you either do what it takes to get it done, or you don't. End of story. And playing strongly in the US for Nokia means coming strong into the CDMA market here, which they haven't. Pointing fingers at Qualcomm or not.



    More than that --- Americans want flip phones --- in both GSM and CDMA world.



    By not even seriously making an honest attempt to design flip GSM phones for the US market --- no one can ever argue that Nokia made an effort for the general US cell phone market at all.
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  • Reply 283 of 349
    I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.
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  • Reply 284 of 349
    taurontauron Posts: 911member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.



    I share that. AT&T can go to hell.
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  • Reply 285 of 349
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,723member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    That's somewhat debatable. Apple was very likely asking for the sun and the moon in their offer to Verizon. ATT was in a weaker position than VZW, and was willing to cough up said sun and moon. VZW wasn't. And, in retrospect, I can't really blame them.



    Even with the iPhone, ATT is still only battling VZW to a standstill, pretty much (and a lot of this is due to ATT's strength in prepaid, actually). With the VZW-Alltel merger that will be finalized anytime now, VZW re-gains the title of #1 US carrier... again, without the iPhone. VZW has lost a few customers to the iPhone, but their churn rate hasn't climbed dramatically. Their ARPU is fine. They'd like the iPhone, but they don't truly need it. Though the 3G model's success must be turning their heads more than a bit.



    But, if you really think about it, Apple probably needs Verizon more than VZW needs Apple. With the Alltel merger, Verizon will have over 80 million customers, quite a bit more than ATT, and about one-third of the US market. If Apple is willing to cut VZW a more reasonable deal than it offered in the past and get them onboard, Apple's US sales stand to skyrocket, as there are lots of ppl out there who want an iPhone, but like their VZW (and Alltel) service and don't want to switch (or who are on the fence but don't want to pay the ETF, which is quite expensive on multi-line/family plans).



    You'd have to think that getting VZW-Alltel onboard is goal one for Apple the instant the ATT exclusive runs out. Because there's just not many alternatives.



    Sprint is dysfunctional and shrinking, and is pretty wedded to Wi-Max (I doubt Apple wishes to make a WiMax version of the iPhone). T-Mobile is barely a third of VZW-Alltel's size, and has an extremely limited 3G network (they started deploying it very late). US Cellular is a very good carrier, but they're tiny compared to the big boys. And so on.





    ...



    You mean that Verizon is battling AT&T almost to a standstill.



    AT&T has stated that the iPhone is more than making up in any lost profits from their deal with the higher than average rates iPhone users are willing to pay.



    Verizon would have more customers than they have now, paying higher rates. I read somewhere that the most customers for AT&T's iPhone, coming from outside AT&T are coming from Verizon, so they are hurting from this.



    I don't know if Apple needs Verizon more or not, but remember that Apple is now selling two thirds of the iPhones outside the US. That means that having Verizon right now would only add another 15% more customers. That's not insignificant, but it's not world shattering either.



    If the rumor that Apple will Add China after the new year is true, that will bring any contribution of Verizon down to below 10%. Maybe 5%. Even the smallest of the big three phone companies in China have several times as many customers as Verizon has.



    Apple can afford to wait this one out.
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  • Reply 286 of 349
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,723member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    I know, I know, Nokia and Qualcomm hate each other. But if you listen to Nokia's press releases and official line, for several years now they've bemoaned the fact that they haven't done well in the US, and they're always "vowing" to do better here with some initiative. But they never seem to.



    At some point, you either do what it takes to get it done, or you don't. End of story. And playing strongly in the US for Nokia means coming strong into the CDMA market here, which they haven't. Pointing fingers at Qualcomm or not.



    Never said CDMA's US presence made it huge worldwide (though, at around 15% worldwide marketshare, I wouldn't ignore CDMA globally either).



    Nokia is in a lot more trouble than some may think.



    They just pulled out of Japan, and their presence in most countries is mostly cheap phones. Their smartphones are losing out EVERYWHERE.
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  • Reply 287 of 349
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Tell us with a straight face that you'd go back to dial-up on your home computer. That's about how fast GPRS is.



    Last year in Europe the iPhone was beating other 3G phones in internet marketshare with a better interface and a slower network.



    Quote:

    And Apple sold nearly 7 million 3G iPhones in just the 3rd quarter. The 2.5G iPhone couldn't match that in a full year.



    Don't kid yourself... it's now a footnote.



    They sold nearly 7 million additionally with a cheaper price and the app store.



    They just stopped selling the original iPhone in April. Isn't as though its long ago history.
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  • Reply 288 of 349
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Demanding that the iPhone perform all of its functionality without Verizon being able to charge anything extra is asking for the sun and the moon.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    That's somewhat debatable. Apple was very likely asking for the sun and the moon in their offer to Verizon.



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  • Reply 289 of 349
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You mean that Verizon is battling AT&T almost to a standstill.



    AT&T has stated that the iPhone is more than making up in any lost profits from their deal with the higher than average rates iPhone users are willing to pay.



    Verizon would have more customers than they have now, paying higher rates. I read somewhere that the most customers for AT&T's iPhone, coming from outside AT&T are coming from Verizon, so they are hurting from this.



    The problem for AT&T is that they concentrated on building their prepaid subscriber base (much of that via Tracfone). Verizon Wireless has a higher ARPU than AT&T wireless.



    Those news are confirmed rumors based on some sort of phone-in survey --- unreliable. Also we have actual SEC filings to look at the overall picture. From Verizon's point of view, it is not hurting them overall --- because whatever they lost in subscribership to AT&T due to the iphone, they gain it back from Sprint and T-Mobile.
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  • Reply 290 of 349
    taurontauron Posts: 911member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Nokia is in a lot more trouble than some may think.



    They just pulled out of Japan, and their presence in most countries is mostly cheap phones. Their smartphones are losing out EVERYWHERE.



    Good, the iphone will prevail.
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  • Reply 291 of 349
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    More than that --- Americans want flip phones --- in both GSM and CDMA world.



    By not even seriously making an honest attempt to design flip GSM phones for the US market --- no one can ever argue that Nokia made an effort for the general US cell phone market at all.





    Yeah, I mentioned that too, earlier. Very few flip phones + little CDMA product = Nokia tanked in US market.



    Nokia was so used to being able to dictate to consumers what they should want that they were utterly surprised when the US market said, "Thanks, but no thanks".



    Of late, Nokia's been saying that now they want to listen to US customers. Wow, what a good idea. Duh.



    And that's actually a bit of a cautionary tale for Apple, if you think about it. Sure, the UI and mobile Safari is making ppl ga-ga for iPhones now (well, after 3G, anyway), but Apple may not always have such a big technological gap on the competition.





    ...
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  • Reply 292 of 349
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.





    Yup. And this is why single-carrier exclusives suck.



    Ppl can be fiercely loyal to a particular carrier, in large part because once you find a carrier who works well in your particular geographic area, you're not really going to want to roll the dice on somebody else.



    Take my neck of the woods... Verizon is very good where I live. T-Mobile and Sprint are mediocre. ATT is actually pretty bad. Love the 3G iPhone, but would not get one here because ATT just isn't up to snuff.



    NO carrier is good everywhere, or even close to everywhere. That's why single-carrier exclusives inherently limit to you to only a certain percentage of the market. And, even for those who are willing to switch carriers, ETFs and contracts get in the way too.



    Maybe this is why Apple hasn't been easing off of the single-carrier model in overseas markets?



    Multi-carrier for the iPhone in the US can't come soon enough, but sadly, it's still about a year and a half away. Bummer.





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  • Reply 293 of 349
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Demanding that the iPhone perform all of its functionality without Verizon being able to charge anything extra is asking for the sun and the moon.





    You were privy to the specifics of the negotiations? Do tell.





    ...
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  • Reply 294 of 349
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,723member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    The problem for AT&T is that they concentrated on building their prepaid subscriber base (much of that via Tracfone). Verizon Wireless has a higher ARPU than AT&T wireless.



    Those news are confirmed rumors based on some sort of phone-in survey --- unreliable. Also we have actual SEC filings to look at the overall picture. From Verizon's point of view, it is not hurting them overall --- because whatever they lost in subscribership to AT&T due to the iphone, they gain it back from Sprint and T-Mobile.



    Yes, but I've looked at their prices when researching my own choices over the years. Verizon has always charged too much for some services, fine for business perhaps, but not for consumers.
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  • Reply 295 of 349
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    You don't need to know the specifics. You can clearly see how Verizon prices its plans.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    You were privy to the specifics of the negotiations? Do tell.





    ...



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  • Reply 296 of 349
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,723member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tauron View Post


    Good, the iphone will prevail.



    I think that's true.



    When you combine what's already happening with the new announcement featured here today about Apple's new investments, couple that with the article from Ars giving some info about the technology:



    http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...phone-graphics



    and couple that with what we are seeing about new games releases:



    http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-join-the-fray



    we can see that this platform, including the seemingly very popular iTouch, is going in directions that no other phone can go.



    Will this also lead to a series of netbooks from Apple that will also zoom past those being offered by others?



    It certainly looks possible.



    Apple is moving to a more exclusive technology for this new platform that no one else will be able to match, and unlike the PPC, Apple will have more control over where it goes, and when.
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  • Reply 297 of 349
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Its not looking that great for the BB Storm. The absence of WiFi is a stupid mistake.



    "We tried to warn you, but you just didn't want to hear it. "How bad could it be?" you muttered to yourself, as you handed over a summer's worth of lawn mowing money for a shiny new BlackBerry Storm. Pretty bad, as it turns out. Based on a pile of anecdotal evidence and hearsay, numbers as high as a 50% return rate have been bandied about. The software update certainly helped the situation, but there are still a lot of disappointed thumbs out there. So, how'd it go down on your end?"



    Engadget
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  • Reply 298 of 349
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,723member
    When we also read about this:



    http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...vice-to-iphone



    and software such as this;



    http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/19397/



    we can see that there are those in major other markets who think the iPhone is poised to become an important competitor there.
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  • Reply 299 of 349
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    T-Mobile should definitely get it. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Verizon. Verizon won' get the iPhone if it doesn't agree to Apple's terms. If they allow the iPhone to function without attempting to force Apple to change the phones functions or charging extra for them. The other handset manufacturers and customers with other phones won't be too happy about that. Its a conundrum.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post




    Multi-carrier for the iPhone in the US can't come soon enough, but sadly, it's still about a year and a half away. Bummer.





    ...



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  • Reply 300 of 349
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Last year in Europe the iPhone was beating other 3G phones in internet marketshare with a better interface and a slower network.



    Way to dodge the question. Tsk. \





    Quote:

    They sold nearly 7 million additionally with a cheaper price and the app store.



    Wow. Your '3G denial' was funny before, but now, it's just kinda sad.



    (btw, 3G helps out the App Store... faster OTA dloads.)





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