GS downgrades Apple, says new product at Macworld unlikely

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  • Reply 61 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cuppingmaster View Post


    Gloom is not data, nor is it logic. It's simply a feeling that the sky is falling. The financial world ought to be treated like the scientific world -- don't say anything unless you have data.



    Well what exactly do you think Wallstreet is then? Just because gloom (human sentiment) is not scientific data does not make it any less relevant to market conditions. Wallstreet is nothing more than buying and selling based on future prospects. These prospects are indeed generated through "data," but how do you think this data arises? It is a collective reflection of the feelings and emotions of countless buyers and sellers. Wallstreet is at times calm, and at times erratic, which just so happens to coincide with the human psyche very well. I ask, why is it that AAPL is a relatively volatile stock? What actions by Apple have warranted AAPL's degree of volatility? My bet is that it has more to do with the fickle, buy-and-sell-on-a-whim nature of AAPL owners (like the ones who dump 30% of their stock at the mere mention of Jobs catching the flu, or who increase their stake by 30% because he IS giving that keynote address at Macworld). The financial world is anything but scientific, because humans, who create such things as "economics," are anything but predictable.
  • Reply 62 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bertyao View Post


    i thought steve jobs say you have to innovate during recession. i assume that means release new products?? or do you innovate now and then wait for economy to improve then release it.



    I think you innovate ways to bring down costs, and improve your lineup. I just don't think you launch new, world-changing products during a downturn. If they don't sell well at first, anything innovative will be declared a failure before it has a chance to prove itself.
  • Reply 63 of 87
    I for one hope we at least see an iLife '09 upgrade.
  • Reply 64 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Shaine_Michael View Post


    I for one hope we at least see an iLife '09 upgrade.



    What specifically are you missing that needs upgrading?
  • Reply 65 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iReality85 View Post


    Well what exactly do you think Wallstreet is then? Just because gloom (human sentiment) is not scientific data does not make it any less relevant to market conditions. Wallstreet is nothing more than buying and selling based on future prospects. These prospects are indeed generated through "data," but how do you think this data arises? It is a collective reflection of the feelings and emotions of countless buyers and sellers. Wallstreet is at times calm, and at times erratic, which just so happens to coincide with the human psyche very well. I ask, why is it that AAPL is a relatively volatile stock? What actions by Apple have warranted AAPL's degree of volatility? My bet is that it has more to do with the fickle, buy-and-sell-on-a-whim nature of AAPL owners (like the ones who dump 30% of their stock at the mere mention of Jobs catching the flu, or who increase their stake by 30% because he IS giving that keynote address at Macworld). The financial world is anything but scientific, because humans, who create such things as "economics," are anything but predictable.



    Sure, market conditions can be based on whimsy, smoke, and mirrors. But then why analyze anything? Imagine a CEO saying he/she "had a feeling" about a product that was tanking and wouldn't pull it. He'd be ousted by the board. The investors may indeed lick their finger and stick it into the sky, but the analysts ought not do the same. They're supposed to be advising investors based on REAL data to temper the investors from doing the above, not egg them on.
  • Reply 66 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bertyao View Post


    i thought steve jobs say you have to innovate during recession. i assume that means release new products?? or do you innovate now and then wait for economy to improve then release it.



    I feel, the tough times are *when* you bring your A game. All that R&D and skunkworks stuff, time to polish it and set it loose on the world.



    I personally feel this downgrade is GS wanting to influence the share price downwards.



    My prediction, is that Apple won't go for something as "radical" as the tablet yet during this time.



    However, they've got two angles.



    The first, which is more likely, is the netbook. This is the space in-between the iPhone 3G and the MacBook Air. There is a gap here in which a product can be introduced that is:



    1. Unlikely to cannibalize product sales of Apple offerings which are more or less expensive

    2. Delivering a product which has potential for sales growth particularly during recession

    3. Leveraging popularity of iPhone 3G while spreading the risk of new product introduction





    Hence, I believe there will be an Apple "netbook" of some sort. Because, as above:



    1. The netbook sits comfortably between the iPhone 3G and the MacBook Air. It complements and enhances the Apple ecosystem.



    2. There is evidence that consumers are interested in this space, and simply want a portable computing device that is cheaper than a 13" laptop. There is evidence that this trend can carry people/market/Apple through the haze and poor sentiment during the recession, at least a bridge for 6 months into the tablet/ other kickass stuff in the later part of 2009.



    3. The netbook can be sold not through Apple Mac channels but through iPhone 3G channels. Having 3G broadband built in, there is a good opportunity of AT&T, for example, partnering even more with Apple by delivering a "subsidised" Apple netbook with built-in 3G access. This model can be extended throughout the world, thus balancing the effects of recession in different countries. This netbook can be rolled out progressively like the iPhone 3G to various countries.



    The second, is, of course, the xMac (desktop upgradeable Mac). Which I think is very unlikely.





    My other views are as follows:



    A. Apple itself invests a significant amount of money into Macworld. To not introduce a significant product would be a big waste of time, money, organisation, and especially, a big waste of important media attention.



    B. The January-April time frame is usually, relatively, the lowest period of sales after the successful holiday season. Apple would need a good stimulus, an injection of fresh confidence, if you will.



    C. A new Apple netbook, refreshes to the iMac (Nvidia chipset), and possibly announcement of a 30" LED cinema display, AppleTV update, would be a strong kickstart to surviving a tough year.



    D. Consolidation is an option, and there will be cost cutting, but the very nature of the Apple business means that for at least January to April, there needs to be some "boost" in the Apple ecosystem, then as the state of the global economy becomes more clear, in April they can start to look at product refreshes, new iPhone 3G model, preparation for the tablet.



    E. This will probably be one of Steve's last great accomplishments before he steps down in a few years. Spearheading and growing an endeavour far beyond anyone's expectations, through, in recent history, two major US recessions.
  • Reply 67 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iReality85 View Post


    Recession = tightening of the wallet = bad for Apple. That's great that Apple has no debt, but speaking truthfully, a company that does not finance at least some degree of debt causes eyebrows to raise, and not in a good way. Debt is usually an indicator of growth, and one would expect that a company with Apple's profits would be financing debt. Also, the bad economy nabs Apple where it hurts- those who are looking to by computer electronics, and premium computers at that. If people/families are tightening their wallets, they are most likely to cut back on splurging for high-end product's like Apple's. I think that's the main reason behind the downgrade- gloom over Apple's current position.



    The most important thing for Apple in 2009 is to push the value angle as much as possible. A lot of people argue that Apple has a "high-end, luxury" aspect. This is alright, because, from a global perspective, Apple is a coveted, well-regarded brand.



    The upper class (and super-rich, but let's just talk about the upper class) around the world will continue to purchase and use Apple products simply out of the necessity to maintain status during this time. Imagine if you were an upper-class socialite or businessperson. You show up one day with a cheap Nokia, Dell, when you used to have a decent Mac and iPhone, and your social and business status will take a big dive.



    Now, the "value" aspect. This is the next key element. Lets say I am a student, consumer, worker or family considering my "IT needs" in 2009. Of course, I have a tighter view of my budget and am trying to reduce spending.



    Let's say in 2009, I need to get a laptop. It's a given. I have no choice. Sure, I can go for Dells that are "half the price", but this is where specs, and the price myth come into play.



    Anyone that is really in a financial jam, should be looking seriously at Macs. Seriously. Because you need value, support, ability to continue to both earn an income and relax when needed to maintain your overall mental health. We know Apple is going to cut its gross profit margins in 2009, so Apple's offerings in terms of value of software, specifications, design and ease-of-use, can still capture the imagination and deliver on what the global middle-class needs.



    Just go ahead and price out a Dell 13" laptop. Once you include Windows, software, graphics, well, the MacBook comes up pretty strong from a price perspective. That and most PC laptops, their screens are really not that bright. I don't know how many PC laptops really use LED backlighting.



    Ah, and the coup de grace... How many netbooks have LED backlighting?



    Oh, lastly, the environmental angle. For a segment of the market, these are the people that will say, something is f*ked up in the world today. The environment, and this financial mess. Isn't it time I took a step now to make a difference? Isn't it time, instead of having so many lattes each day, I use that cash to get a Macbook instead of a Dell, and start to feel different, be more productive, be more fulfilled, and be more reassured that there is no mercury, and aluminium and glass are realistically very recyclable.
  • Reply 68 of 87
    One more thing... Apple needs to continue its global push.



    It remains my firm belief that the failure of the US auto industry is due to its naive, inward thinking. It caters and depends way, way too much on the domestic economy.



    If there were more US cars in Europe, Asia, at least a fraction of the popularity of the Mercedes, BMW and Audi, I think the US auto industry would not be as totally screwed as it is now. I've said it many times, think for a moment about how many GM SUVs, Mustangs or Cadillac CTS' you see in any country outside the US and you will be really shocked. Now think about how many Audis, BMWs and Toyotas you see outside of Europe and Japan. Notice the difference?



    Apple's message, products and innovative nature are inherently attractive on a global scale.



    There are many, many markets many Americans would scoff at, that, if marketed to efficiently, can offer a strong "buffer" for Apple during the tough times because the recession does not affect major and minor economies in all the same way.



    Even in Europe, many users and Apple resellers would argue that the UK and Europe is atrociously neglected by Apple HQ. What about Asia then?



    Apple can, and now more so than ever, needs to successfully enrich its global efforts.
  • Reply 69 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post




    The upper class (and super-rich, but let's just talk about the upper class) around the world will continue to purchase and use Apple products simply out of the necessity to maintain status during this time. Imagine if you were an upper-class socialite or businessperson. You show up one day with a cheap Nokia, Dell, when you used to have a decent Mac and iPhone, and your social and business status will take a big dive.



    Do you really think it's about class???
  • Reply 70 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    How dare you! Spam is a God around here.



    I am?
  • Reply 71 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacOldTimer View Post


    I don't know what charts you're looking at but Apple has a 52 week high of 202.96 and it closed today at 94.75. I would call that "just fine" and neither do the stock holders.



    In the context of a worldwide recession, they're not doing too bad. One to two years is the generally agreed upon time frame for reasonable recovery for the world's economies right now... to be clear, I don't think Apple will hit 200 again for a long, long time.
  • Reply 72 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dshel View Post


    The Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley downgrades came when Apple Stock was demonstrating some good strength. GS and MS are protecting their positions and those of related Hedgefunds on December Option Contracts. Their Analyst's opinions are based on self interest for their companies, and not on any intention to provide good information on Apple performance for regular investors. Apple is the most manipulated stock on the market! Where is the SEC?



    You meen the same SEC that is investigating on Madoff's broker company since 1992 and wasn't able to digg up any wrongdoing?

    I think all these reports of analysts have to be treated the same way as statistics: Don't trust any statistic until you faked it yourself!
  • Reply 73 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by breeze View Post


    Do you really think it's about class???



    I guess when I talk about the "upper class" and "status" this is more relevant in Asia, Middle East, Africa and South America. It should be noted that these markets are increasingly significant sources of revenue and profit for Apple.
  • Reply 74 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    I am?



    Ireland's just in love with you.
  • Reply 75 of 87
    synpsynp Posts: 248member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    I'm no fan of GS but lets face it folks Apple is way over priced and sooner or later investors will realize that. Especially investors with balls as there are a lot of true bargains out there for people to sink money into. I just don't see an appreciation in Apples value in the short term, that no matter what sort of product the deliver. There simply are better opportunities for those that still have investment cash to put into the morass that is wall street.



    As to mac World it is likely something is coming. Obviously I don't know what, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mini replacement. In Apples case it is the product that they most need to have in salable condition if the economy does in fact get worst. The iMacs are likely not far behind but i think Apple has something special planned there.



    The real question is just how bad is the economy. Personally I don't think it is that bad, all we have really seen is a collapse in the overheated housing market. This collapse was something that was going to happen sooner or later as to many markets where selling on speculation and speculation always leads to a market stress. If the economy was truly in depression then why is the bagel shop crammed pack every morning? Surely such is a luxury that people can and would cut back on if money was a problem.



    Frankly the mentality of the recession seems to be driven by the same fools that are whining about global warming. In the same manner these people are fueling fear about the future to assure their political success. The biggest problem with either global warming or the recession crowd is that there are so many Americans so easily duped into believing that the favored mindset has the only handle on the issues. Sort of like the people that look at Apple as an invincible investment. It is just not rational to expect people to pour money into Apples stock when so many sweet options are cropping up. That by the way that isn't a negative against Apple just that the market is profoundly different than it was only a few months ago.





    Dave



    Apple's current market cap represents a 5% annual rate of return. In today's economy, with the low interest rate, that would be fine even for a non-growth company. Apple does show steady growth, so I wouldn't say it's overpriced.



    Of course, if profits are to shrink, then they could be overpriced.
  • Reply 76 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyapple View Post


    GS downgrading Apple? Pot calling the kettle black.



    Agreed.



    A junk status brokerage firm telling us how to view one of the most solid companies in the World on stability.



    Classic.
  • Reply 77 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    Agreed.



    A junk status brokerage firm telling us how to view one of the most solid companies in the World on stability.



    Classic.



    What's even more amazing is how much sway their word still carries... with (junk) investors.
  • Reply 78 of 87
    Goldman Sachs just lost two billion for the quarter.
  • Reply 79 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyapple View Post


    Goldman Sachs just lost two billion for the quarter.



    They'll make it up on the idiots that sell on their downgrade after they buy the dip and watch Apple announce good earnings.
  • Reply 80 of 87
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Daniel B View Post


    To sum up, his analysis is based on hanging around forums like AI. That's funny.



    I think that's an INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT point.



    AI's analysis and insider knowledge is, for the most part, much better than any of these 3rd party analysts. And I think that many of them use AI & MR as the source of their speculation.



    When it comes to anonymous sources, AI recognises who is credible and who isn't and lets us know. I think it's time to do the same with the industry analysts. Treat them like a rumour source. Unfortunately it's not quite that easy since, unless their rumour is new, the analysts are just rehashing existing rumours and some might have great or terrible reputations based not on themselves but on which rumour sites they read.



    Still, I'd like to see AI rate the big analysts like they rate their other sources.
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