Netbooks killing off sickly Windows PC sales

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  • Reply 41 of 102
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    Frankly, it doesn't hurt Intel as badly as folk make it out to be. They have the high end performance market and the low end market squeezing AMD in the middle. Even ARM has issues because as low price as the Atom is the ARM products are cheaper. Yes, it hurts profitability but it sure hurts their competitors more.



    That's an interesting way to think of it. This is a smart move by Intel, even if we aren't making much money in this market at least we don't give our competitors a chance at it either.



    It'll be interesting to see how ARM responds. ARM has nothing to loose and may prove competitive.



    Quote:

    In some ways you can claim that Intel has captured the "high ASP/high margin" segment of the low power netbook market by invading that space before ARM grew performance into that space. We'll see in 2009 how well new ARM netbooks do in the marketplace and if a $200 low performing ARM netbook trumps a $400 Atom based netbook. They better get flash working first though...they say 3rd qtr 09.



    That could be a way for ARM to compete. Continue to drive down the cost of netbooks while delivering similar performance. Cannibalization of cannibalization, Intel can only go so low.
  • Reply 42 of 102
    nofeernofeer Posts: 2,427member
    MS is also worried about putting android on netbooks, hmm android, G1 app store, why even MS/ windows,linux at all?

    the move will be to put a supported moble OS on netbooks that will use with 3g access, skype another convergence product.

    iphone is MY netbook, what does a netbook do that iphone doesn't? (EPC does have a camera for video conferencing)



    like i have said, give iphone BT keyboard support
  • Reply 43 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    You kind of gloss over the simple fact that Apple also make an OS that works very well and is a pleasure to use. Plus I disagree with your generalization about Mac users being in Bush's 1%. I know tons of friends with Macs that are hurting like hell in this economy. Intelligent buying decisions take into account not just upfront costs but the longer term costs. One friend of mine with his $400 Acer laptop is already $400 in the hole for tech help to get it running that failed, he still had to pay. I fixed it for him for free - his Kaspersky had blocked IE from connecting to the internet after an automatic update went badly wrong. It's crap like that happening all day and everyday for PC users that make Apple a better buy even if they cost a bit more up front, even for the financially strapped.



    Well as I said, (and as you quoted), I don't disagree with the facts of this article at all, merely the way in which it's "spun." I'm saying that the problem behind the bad numbers quoted at the beginning of the article have more to do with the recession, than product choices and that Apple's success at deflecting the recession has more to do with it's financial decisions than it's software/hardware. This in no way implies that there is anything bad about the value proposition in Apple hardware.



    As for the "rich" tag, people can argue all day long about who's "rich" and who isn't, without coming to any agreement in my experience, but Apple is definitely a luxury brand no matter how you spin it. Regardless of how affordable or not any computer is to any particular segment of the market, Apple currently sits in that top spot, brand-wise. Try to name another exclusive brand of personal computer that is even more desirable than an Apple for example. Hard isn't it?



  • Reply 44 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by vinea View Post


    In some ways you can claim that Intel has captured the "high ASP/high margin" segment of the low power netbook market by invading that space before ARM grew performance into that space. We'll see in 2009 how well new ARM netbooks do in the marketplace and if a $200 low performing ARM netbook trumps a $400 Atom based netbook. They better get flash working first though...they say 3rd qtr 09.



    I don't see ARM working here. Perhaps you feel differently.



    Atom works well here because it still is compatible with all the x86 apps. You can still work with MS office, surf the net and check email.



    ARM isn't going to have that x86 app availability. I guess MS could port a version of office to ARM but will they? I don't know.
  • Reply 45 of 102
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    I doubt their are many people who are choosing between a $1500 notebook or a $300 netbook. Generally people are not looking over that wide of the price/performance spectrum.



    At some point Apple's sales will slide, most people will attribute that to the economy, you'd have to be single minded to find a direct association to netbooks.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    He's saying Apple are unaffected by netbook sales.



    I think its a bit premature to declare this. I understand Apple's sales held up well in the most recent quarter but lets see how they do this quarter.



    The Apple stores I've visited recently haven't seemed nearly as bust as they used to be.



  • Reply 46 of 102
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Proponents of netbooks like to say that the point of a netbook is web, email, and word processing. For these basic tasks ARM and Linux would work just fine.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    I don't see ARM working here. Perhaps you feel differently.



    Atom works well here because it still is compatible with all the x86 apps. You can still work with MS office, surf the net and check email.



    ARM isn't going to have that x86 app availability. I guess MS could port a version of office to ARM but will they? I don't know.



  • Reply 47 of 102
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Quote:

    Apple sold 13.6 million iPhones in the last year, well above the 11.3 million netbooks sold in 2008 by all vendors combined.



    Then add in however many millions of iPod Touches. That certainly puts Apple's "netbook crisis" oin perspective. If selling them makes sense some day, they'll do it. For now, netbooks don't hurt Apple... they hurt the Windows PC makers themselves, as they rush to compete with each other in cutting profits down to nothing.
  • Reply 48 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    Then add in however many millions of iPod Touches. That certainly puts Apple's "netbook crisis" oin perspective. If selling them makes sense some day, they'll do it. For now, netbooks don't hurt Apple... they hurt the Windows PC makers themselves, as they rush to compete with each other in cutting profits down to nothing.



    Agreed, but Apple could still be in trouble from the netbook sector in that they may not be able to develop a true alternative in the right price segment.



    The iPhone is "sort of" an answer to the netbook, but it's still a phone. It does not access your documents, and you cannot edit documents on it. It's a viewer.



    The much rumoured Mac mini-tablet would be a clear "answer" to the netbook if it exists and if it is announced, but unless it is also a telephone, it won't be subsidised. It could be that Apple is delaying this product because they won't be able to make it appear in the crucial under $500 price range.



    They may be faced with the deciding between eating some of their margin, (which they have never done and is the reason for their solvency), or introducing the luxury super-expensive netbook alternative in the middle of a recession. Tough choice.
  • Reply 49 of 102
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,787member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    Well as I said, (and as you quoted), I don't disagree with the facts of this article at all, merely the way in which it's "spun." I'm saying that the problem behind the bad numbers quoted at the beginning of the article have more to do with the recession, than product choices and that Apple's success at deflecting the recession has more to do with it's financial decisions than it's software/hardware. This in no way implies that there is anything bad about the value proposition in Apple hardware.



    As for the "rich" tag, people can argue all day long about who's "rich" and who isn't, without coming to any agreement in my experience, but Apple is definitely a luxury brand no matter how you spin it. Regardless of how affordable or not any computer is to any particular segment of the market, Apple currently sits in that top spot, brand-wise. Try to name another exclusive brand of personal computer that is even more desirable than an Apple for example. Hard isn't it?







    I agree with you, I guess my point is a Mac isn't as expensive as it might appear from the price tag when you take a few years of flawless operation without any paid help into account.
  • Reply 50 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I agree with you, I guess my point is a Mac isn't as expensive as it might appear from the price tag when you take a few years of flawless operation without any paid help into account.



    But very few people calculate it that thoroughly. See how many iPhones are sold now that they are subsidized by the providers and the users bleed the price difference through their nose each month (and do so happily).

    If this financial crises goes on throughout 2009 this could be Apple's weak point. They might not loose profitability as Apple is defending it's margins with all they have. But Apple might loose considerable revenue.



    As to the BMW analogy: not a good one. BMW declined ~31% in revenue during January.
  • Reply 51 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Proponents of netbooks like to say that the point of a netbook is web, email, and word processing. For these basic tasks ARM and Linux would work just fine.



    But users are rejecting Linux. Apparently the windows netbooks sell better and are returned less.



    I don't know why, the lInux distros look great on a netbook to me. Much better than xp.
  • Reply 52 of 102
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,787member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by copeland View Post


    But very few people calculate it that thoroughly. See how many iPhones are sold now that they are subsidized by the providers and the users bleed the price difference through their nose each month (and do so happily).

    If this financial crises goes on throughout 2009 this could be Apple's weak point. They might not loose profitability as Apple is defending it's margins with all they have. But Apple might loose considerable revenue.



    As to the BMW analogy: not a good one. BMW declined ~31% in revenue during January.



    I never made a BMW analogy?



    However I think more and more are making the initial cost v long term cost calculation. I have helped install Parallels on quite a few Macs for folks making the switch as yet another fat fee to fix their PC finally became one time too many. They even pay the extra for Parallels and a genuine Windows on top of Mac cost to be free of PCs. The need for Windows in this case is all due to our local MLS system not allowing anything but IE to work (yes I know Safari can pretend to be IE but it doesn't work in this case).
  • Reply 53 of 102
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mbmcavoy View Post


    Is that really because the games simply don't need more than 3GB, or because 32-bit software is literally unable to address more than 3GB? The game designers are restricted and have to fit within that container, and have been for some time.



    They're not maxing out the current 32-bit limit of 3.5GB, so it's obviously not the container that's the limiting factor. Remember that a lot of games are cross-platform and the PS3 and Xbox 360 only have 512MB of RAM each.



    The same arguments popped up around the release of the PS3, when Blu-Ray was going to bring about a revolution to gaming. It hasn't. Very few developers were hitting the 9GB limit of DVD-9 before Blu-Ray came along and new developers can't truly take advantage because most games are cross-platform.



    Having lots of RAM is great for running many applications and processes simultaneously. Games by their very nature are a single application and don't benefit from more RAM after a certain point.



    But anyway, this has veered away from the original point I was making. Gamers right now don't benefit from the 64-bit variants of Windows. Even if you want to argue over the details, they certainly aren't the ones who benefit the most, as the original author claims.
  • Reply 54 of 102
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Their is another option. Apple can be patient and see how the PC makers fair with their race to the bottom. To continue to make cheaper and cheaper machines is not sustainable in the long run.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post


    Agreed, but Apple could still be in trouble from the netbook sector in that they may not be able to develop a true alternative in the right price segment.



  • Reply 55 of 102
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Yes I agree, when netbooks are running Windows 7 and Ion chipsets, that should bring things back in favor for MS.



    But their is room for ARM and Linux to achieve sales based on being good enough and undercutting price.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    But users are rejecting Linux. Apparently the windows netbooks sell better and are returned less.



    I don't know why, the lInux distros look great on a netbook to me. Much better than xp.



  • Reply 56 of 102
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JavaCowboy View Post


    However, I really sense now that Apple has shifted its focus away from desktops, which aren't selling nearly as well, to notebooks the iPhone/iPod touch. Once Apple starts selling docking stations for their notebooks (as opposed to just the cinema displays) then that might be the beginning of the end for their desktop lines (maybe not the Mac Pro, though).



    When Apple went from PowerPC to Intel in 2005, Jobs explained that the future was mobile. So the focus shifted long ago, altho the iMac and Mac Pro will continue to be made. (Ironically, Apple is turning more to ARM-based chips for its handheld mobile; I'm sure Intel imagined themselves as the future iPod/iPhone CPU.) With regard to the Mac Pro, Apple must always have a high-end machine to maintain its premium brand perception.



    As for docking stations, don't hold your breath, as long as Jobs is CEO. In the Apple aesthetic, the display is the docking station.
  • Reply 57 of 102
    This is the reason why I think MS will release Win 7 this fall (Sep-Dec). Win 7 runs on netbooks with just 1GB of memory while Vista doesn't. Doing so will allow MS to kill XP and force OEMs to start releasing Win7 netbooks. Plus, they can't afford to waste the opportunity of the holiday sales.



    It's not a matter of they want to, but rather, they have to release Win 7.
  • Reply 58 of 102
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    My takeaways from this article are:



    1. $300-500 XP/Linux-based very-low-to-no-margin Netbooks are significantly cannibalizing $600-900 higher-margin Vista-based notebooks. Vista's "advanced" features and better hardware performance haven't been enough to stop this. Chip sales (a forward-looking indicator) shows PC mfrs believe this trend will continue and even accelerate in the coming months.



    2. By refusing to release an OS X netbook, Apple won't allow OS X netbooks to cannibalize $900+ very-high-margin OS X-based notebooks. Rather, Apple offers a $200-400 good-margin iPod touch to the consumer with truly low-end Internet or very-high-mobility needs. Thus, Apple is forcing the consumer to choose from a continuum of iPod touch to XP/Linux netbooks to OS X notebooks, and counting on the AppStore and OS X "brands" to shift consumers downmarket or upmarket. (Apple has said that Mac owners delay purchases rather than switch away, so Apple is mostly appealing to non-Mac owners who are considering switching.)



    In Q4 08, this seemed to work out okay for Apple; iPod touch sold very well and although OS X notebooks have surely lost some sales to netbooks, there was still y-o-y growth. However, all of the above propositions still need to be verified by empirical evidence during this quarter and next. If Apple sees potential switchers turning to netbooks, it has already said that it has some ideas in this area - which no doubt means that a product decision (to manufacture or not) isn't far behind.



    3. As for Snow Leopard and Win 7, that is forward-looking. MS needs to deliver Win 7 to increase profit at the low end as OEM XP is very cheap, and also make Win 7 higher-margin notebooks more attractive (at a minimum, just getting rid of the Vista negativity). In contrast, Snow Leopard aims to significantly enhance OS X notebook performance - 64-bit and Grand Central - thus enabling Apple to keep $900+ high-margin notebooks differentiated from Win 7 notebooks and netbooks.



    Personally, I think Apple will definitely have a mobile product in the $500-600 range (cheaper upfront if it has cellular and is subsidized) before next Christmas. They just need pieces like Mobile Me to grow its capabilities further in order to make that product really work.
  • Reply 59 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FuturePastNow View Post


    Microsoft is attacking the netbook market directly with Win 7. Every time they talk about it, they talk about it running on netbooks. So they're doing serious damage control on that front.



    The question is how much damage control is possible.



    Sure, the new OS will run on the netbook so no XP necessary but unless they somehow manage to charge more for it they'll earn way less per sold machine than they're used to.



    We're finally at the point where the price of capable hardware is so low that even moderately priced software looks expensive in comparison.
  • Reply 60 of 102
    vineavinea Posts: 5,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    I don't see ARM working here. Perhaps you feel differently.



    Atom works well here because it still is compatible with all the x86 apps. You can still work with MS office, surf the net and check email.



    ARM isn't going to have that x86 app availability. I guess MS could port a version of office to ARM but will they? I don't know.



    For a linux netbook it doesn't matter as much. WindowsMobile is what might run on an ARM netbook vs Linux and I guess Office Mobile.



    Folks that want/need full windows will go Atom. Folks that just want a web browser and email might go ARM/Linux.
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