What could a single phone offer in terms of an upgrade that would drive a "10X" increase in data usage on a network? Streaming video? Video chat? Tethering?
I think they are talking about how new hardware is expected to add hundreds more subscribers (just like from the first to the second did) and thus they need to be able to handle it.
which is awesome that they aren't making the same mistake twice and waiting to see just how much more traffic they end up with.
makes me think it would be delightful if Apple leaked false rumors of new phone hardware so ATT would get it together and fix the network flaws so Apple doesn't have to listen to the gripes and suits that are caused by ATT's lacking coverage etc.
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode? On Wired's last survey, 1 Mbps is what an average AT&T subscriber will experience.
Yup, sounds like they'll be getting ready for more than the iPhone. This could be the beginning of the wireless providers being the main ISPs of the future. Unless they F it up by charging too much and providing unreliable coverage. As I'm sure they will, but at least it's a start.
OK, so here's my concern: that AT&T is, in fact, correct about the big increases in data usage come the new iPhone (because of big upticks in number of users, or video, or tethering, or increased usage per user, or some combination of all of that), but they are, as is their wont, kinda blowing smoke re the fast and furious rollout of the new giga mega infrastructure designed to handle all this.
Under that scenario, average iPhone user experience gets worse, because the increased data demand outstrips AT&T's response.
I'll believe it when I see it. Just about every other 3g cellphones works great inside buildings. Yes cells with AT&T 3g. iPhone rarely works inside buildings.
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode? On Wired's last survey, 1 Mbps is what an average AT&T subscriber will experience.
I don't know of anyone, with any phone, on any network that gets anywhere near that speed.
It's only theoretical. Even WiFi at home, with no real interference, gets no more than a fraction of the rated speed. That's the problem with all over the air networks, no matter what they are.
OK, so here's my concern: that AT&T is, in fact, correct about the big increases in data usage come the new iPhone (because of big upticks in number of users, or video, or tethering, or increased usage per user, or some combination of all of that), but they are, as is their wont, kinda blowing smoke re the fast and furious rollout of the new giga mega infrastructure designed to handle all this.
Under that scenario, average iPhone user experience gets worse, because the increased data demand outstrips AT&T's response.
My 3G got vastly better in the past few months, suddenly.
At first, I was reporting problems here with 3G dropouts, poor 3G reception, slow 3G reception. This was at my house.
Then it just got better overnight.
A couple of weeks later I read that they're moving 3G to 850 MHz, and it made sense.
What could a single phone offer in terms of an upgrade that would drive a "10X" increase in data usage on a network? Streaming video? Video chat? Tethering?
Although those are all obvious big data utilizers, I can't see how new sales of a single phone could reasonably be expected to produce such a huge increase.
And, how can ATT be credibly expected to meet such a demand? I read the article, I see the explanations of what they're doing, but I find it hard to believe that ATT, or any carrier for that matter, is in a position to even double, much increase tenfold, their data capacity within a few months just because they believe a new model phone is going to put additional demands on their network.
I think it's reasonable to assume that the new iPhone will increase data usage on ATT's network, and that ATT is doing what it can, as fast as it can, to increase their capacity.
But the actual numbers being tossed around sound crazy.
In addition to what the people before me have said i would like to add that they are not only upgrading towers, but the whole infrastructure. Remember right after the other launches all the servers going down making it almost impossible to activate peoples iphones? just saying
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode?
The fastest I had so far (testing with iPhone Speedtest) was 2.34 Mbps ? this was using a jailbroken iPhone 3G with a Vodafone SIM downtown Frankfurt, Germany (outdoors, all bars full). Using Apple's exclusive provider (T-Mobile) I normally achieve around 1.4 Mbps outdoors and less than half of that indoors. It must be considered that Speedtest is transferring one big file, so latency does not have a huge effect ? loading a Web site with dozens of small files 2.34 Mbps is not in the cards.
When a million new iPhones come on-line in June, the AT&T network will like buckle and collapse and then more lawsuits claiming that Apple lied about increased network speeds or that iPhone hardware is faulty. I'm sure that AT&T won't be able to stay ahead of peak demand. I guess that's a major drawback of having only one carrier for such a popular handset. I'm sure AT&T is going to be pushed beyond all limits and Apple is going to be blamed for it. Any large city should be forced to have thousands of WiFi access points to cut down on overloading the 3G networks.
I believe Apple is also working on a 3G enebled Macbook. That would use up a lot a bandwidth.
J.
That is a logical progression although it may come in a tablet form (and not a tablet like any tablet that went before it). But yes, a MacBook also with built in 3G option seems an obvious step for next round of upgrades. Tethering would be clumsy compared to this and more revenue to Apple as a reason to buy new MacBooks.
Why not an external USB2 dongle for existing MacBooks too?
When a million new iPhones come on-line in June, the AT&T network will like buckle and collapse and then more lawsuits claiming that Apple lied about increased network speeds or that iPhone hardware is faulty. I'm sure that AT&T won't be able to stay ahead of peak demand. I guess that's a major drawback of having only one carrier for such a popular handset. I'm sure AT&T is going to be pushed beyond all limits and Apple is going to be blamed for it. Any large city should be forced to have thousands of WiFi access points to cut down on overloading the 3G networks.
My 3G got vastly better in the past few months, suddenly.
At first, I was reporting problems here with 3G dropouts, poor 3G reception, slow 3G reception. This was at my house.
Then it just got better overnight.
A couple of weeks later I read that they're moving 3G to 850 MHz, and it made sense.
Well, I certainly hope that AT&T is rolling out capacity and speed enhancements full speed.
However, I still think that AT&T believing that the new iPhone will drive a ten fold increase in data usage, and that they therefore are quickly moving to be able to provide that, doesn't really hang together as a narrative.
Now, if AT&T has foreseen this day for the last two years, and has been spending gobs of money and working night and day to be able to deliver this tremendous expansion of their service sometime this year, OK.
But the article implies that AT&T is specifically responding to whatever it is about the new iPhone that makes them think it will drive a huge increase in traffic, as if something like a 10x increase in a cell network's data capacity was just a matter of being diligent once you decide that's what you want to do, over a period of some months.
Well, I certainly hope that AT&T is rolling out capacity and speed enhancements full speed.
However, I still think that AT&T believing that the new iPhone will drive a ten fold increase in data usage, and that they therefore are quickly moving to be able to provide that, doesn't really hang together as a narrative.
Now, if AT&T has foreseen this day for the last two years, and has been spending gobs of money and working night and day to be able to deliver this tremendous expansion of their service sometime this year, OK.
But the article implies that AT&T is specifically responding to whatever it is about the new iPhone that makes them think it will drive a huge increase in traffic, as if something like a 10x increase in a cell network's data capacity was just a matter of being diligent once you decide that's what you want to do, over a period of some months.
And that seems very hard to swallow.
They're buying a new generation of routers that didn't exist 6 month ago. I think AT&T had planed this for a while. But it's very expensive. Why do people forget that? It's going to cost them $10 billion to finish this latest rollout. Then they're going to do another.
And in addition, what do they have, 20 thousand or more towers that need upgrading?
I don't think they expect ten times the traffic overnight. But as all phones will get the 3.0 upgrade, and all the 3G's, which are the majority of phones out now will see major new services that weren't available before, along with expected strong sales of the newest models, I can see ten times the traffic over the next few months.
Don't forget that notifications alone will add a tremendous new amount of traffic that wasn't there before. The new MMS will also add a good deal to that traffic if people actually decide to use it with photos, something that also couldn't be done before. An MMS can now be well over ten thousand times larger because of photos. That would surely count to a ten times increase of network traffic way beyond its usage. In the USA last year, I read that a trillion messages were sent. How many from the iPhone, I don't know. But think of what will happen if people who were sending an SMS of an average size of 200 bytes now send MMS's with photos that average 500,000 bytes. If only 20% of people do that, the average SMS will have ballooned to 100,000 bytes.
So, yes, I definitely can see ten times the traffic.
They're buying a new generation of routers that didn't exist 6 month ago. I think AT&T had planed this for a while. But it's very expensive. Why do people forget that? It's going to cost them $10 billion to finish this latest rollout. Then they're going to do another.
And in addition, what do they have, 20 thousand or more towers that need upgrading?
I don't think they expect ten times the traffic overnight. But as all phones will get the 3.0 upgrade, and all the 3G's, which are the majority of phones out now will see major new services that weren't available before, along with expected strong sales of the newest models, I can see ten times the traffic over the next few months.
Don't forget that notifications alone will add a tremendous new amount of traffic that wasn't there before. The new MMS will also add a good deal to that traffic if people actually decide to use it with photos, something that also couldn't be done before. An MMS can now be well over ten thousand times larger because of photos. That would surely count to a ten times increase of network traffic way beyond its usage. In the USA last year, I read that a trillion messages were sent. How many from the iPhone, I don't know. But think of what will happen if people who were sending an SMS of an average size of 200 bytes now send MMS's with photos that average 500,000 bytes. If only 20% of people do that, the average SMS will have ballooned to 100,000 bytes.
So, yes, I definitely can see ten times the traffic.
I don't think you're disagreeing with me here-- as I've said, let's assume that the ten times the traffic part is true-- my question remains: can AT&T provide ten times the capacity, "over the next few months"?
New routers, fine, expensive, you bet, many towers need upgrading, yes.
But every carrier has their upgrade map and rollout schedules and equipment acquisition plans and budgets, and I'm not aware of anyone who has managed that kind of enormous expansion in data services over time frames measured in anything but years.
So, again: assuming the ten fold increase in demand is correct, over a period of months, I can't see how AT&T can actually match their capacity increase to that curve, unless cell phone carriers in general have been shining us on, till now, and can actually move much, much more quickly with rolling out service improvements that they've led us to believe.
Which means there is going to be at least some period during which the average data using iPhone experience is going to be at least somewhat negatively impacted.
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Two questions:
What could a single phone offer in terms of an upgrade that would drive a "10X" increase in data usage on a network? Streaming video? Video chat? Tethering?
I think they are talking about how new hardware is expected to add hundreds more subscribers (just like from the first to the second did) and thus they need to be able to handle it.
which is awesome that they aren't making the same mistake twice and waiting to see just how much more traffic they end up with.
makes me think it would be delightful if Apple leaked false rumors of new phone hardware so ATT would get it together and fix the network flaws so Apple doesn't have to listen to the gripes and suits that are caused by ATT's lacking coverage etc.
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode? On Wired's last survey, 1 Mbps is what an average AT&T subscriber will experience.
No, and it feels like dial-up.
Under that scenario, average iPhone user experience gets worse, because the increased data demand outstrips AT&T's response.
I'll believe it when I see it. Just about every other 3g cellphones works great inside buildings. Yes cells with AT&T 3g. iPhone rarely works inside buildings.
Mine does. Do you actually have one?
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode? On Wired's last survey, 1 Mbps is what an average AT&T subscriber will experience.
I don't know of anyone, with any phone, on any network that gets anywhere near that speed.
It's only theoretical. Even WiFi at home, with no real interference, gets no more than a fraction of the rated speed. That's the problem with all over the air networks, no matter what they are.
OK, so here's my concern: that AT&T is, in fact, correct about the big increases in data usage come the new iPhone (because of big upticks in number of users, or video, or tethering, or increased usage per user, or some combination of all of that), but they are, as is their wont, kinda blowing smoke re the fast and furious rollout of the new giga mega infrastructure designed to handle all this.
Under that scenario, average iPhone user experience gets worse, because the increased data demand outstrips AT&T's response.
My 3G got vastly better in the past few months, suddenly.
At first, I was reporting problems here with 3G dropouts, poor 3G reception, slow 3G reception. This was at my house.
Then it just got better overnight.
A couple of weeks later I read that they're moving 3G to 850 MHz, and it made sense.
Two questions:
What could a single phone offer in terms of an upgrade that would drive a "10X" increase in data usage on a network? Streaming video? Video chat? Tethering?
Although those are all obvious big data utilizers, I can't see how new sales of a single phone could reasonably be expected to produce such a huge increase.
And, how can ATT be credibly expected to meet such a demand? I read the article, I see the explanations of what they're doing, but I find it hard to believe that ATT, or any carrier for that matter, is in a position to even double, much increase tenfold, their data capacity within a few months just because they believe a new model phone is going to put additional demands on their network.
I think it's reasonable to assume that the new iPhone will increase data usage on ATT's network, and that ATT is doing what it can, as fast as it can, to increase their capacity.
But the actual numbers being tossed around sound crazy.
In addition to what the people before me have said i would like to add that they are not only upgrading towers, but the whole infrastructure. Remember right after the other launches all the servers going down making it almost impossible to activate peoples iphones? just saying
Then maybe we could get some decent reception at home.
Is anyone getting anywhere near 3.6 Mbps with their iPhone in 3G mode?
The fastest I had so far (testing with iPhone Speedtest) was 2.34 Mbps ? this was using a jailbroken iPhone 3G with a Vodafone SIM downtown Frankfurt, Germany (outdoors, all bars full). Using Apple's exclusive provider (T-Mobile) I normally achieve around 1.4 Mbps outdoors and less than half of that indoors. It must be considered that Speedtest is transferring one big file, so latency does not have a huge effect ? loading a Web site with dozens of small files 2.34 Mbps is not in the cards.
This highlights the thought that we are about to see a tablet device that will arrive around the time the new iPhone comes out.
I believe Apple is also working on a 3G enebled Macbook. That would use up a lot a bandwidth.
J.
That is a logical progression although it may come in a tablet form (and not a tablet like any tablet that went before it). But yes, a MacBook also with built in 3G option seems an obvious step for next round of upgrades. Tethering would be clumsy compared to this and more revenue to Apple as a reason to buy new MacBooks.
Why not an external USB2 dongle for existing MacBooks too?
When a million new iPhones come on-line in June, the AT&T network will like buckle and collapse and then more lawsuits claiming that Apple lied about increased network speeds or that iPhone hardware is faulty. I'm sure that AT&T won't be able to stay ahead of peak demand. I guess that's a major drawback of having only one carrier for such a popular handset. I'm sure AT&T is going to be pushed beyond all limits and Apple is going to be blamed for it. Any large city should be forced to have thousands of WiFi access points to cut down on overloading the 3G networks.
I think you have an overactive imagination.
Any large city should be forced to have thousands of WiFi access points to cut down on overloading the 3G networks.
LOL.
And who funds the enforcement of this new law?
My 3G got vastly better in the past few months, suddenly.
At first, I was reporting problems here with 3G dropouts, poor 3G reception, slow 3G reception. This was at my house.
Then it just got better overnight.
A couple of weeks later I read that they're moving 3G to 850 MHz, and it made sense.
Well, I certainly hope that AT&T is rolling out capacity and speed enhancements full speed.
However, I still think that AT&T believing that the new iPhone will drive a ten fold increase in data usage, and that they therefore are quickly moving to be able to provide that, doesn't really hang together as a narrative.
Now, if AT&T has foreseen this day for the last two years, and has been spending gobs of money and working night and day to be able to deliver this tremendous expansion of their service sometime this year, OK.
But the article implies that AT&T is specifically responding to whatever it is about the new iPhone that makes them think it will drive a huge increase in traffic, as if something like a 10x increase in a cell network's data capacity was just a matter of being diligent once you decide that's what you want to do, over a period of some months.
And that seems very hard to swallow.
Well, I certainly hope that AT&T is rolling out capacity and speed enhancements full speed.
However, I still think that AT&T believing that the new iPhone will drive a ten fold increase in data usage, and that they therefore are quickly moving to be able to provide that, doesn't really hang together as a narrative.
Now, if AT&T has foreseen this day for the last two years, and has been spending gobs of money and working night and day to be able to deliver this tremendous expansion of their service sometime this year, OK.
But the article implies that AT&T is specifically responding to whatever it is about the new iPhone that makes them think it will drive a huge increase in traffic, as if something like a 10x increase in a cell network's data capacity was just a matter of being diligent once you decide that's what you want to do, over a period of some months.
And that seems very hard to swallow.
They're buying a new generation of routers that didn't exist 6 month ago. I think AT&T had planed this for a while. But it's very expensive. Why do people forget that? It's going to cost them $10 billion to finish this latest rollout. Then they're going to do another.
And in addition, what do they have, 20 thousand or more towers that need upgrading?
I don't think they expect ten times the traffic overnight. But as all phones will get the 3.0 upgrade, and all the 3G's, which are the majority of phones out now will see major new services that weren't available before, along with expected strong sales of the newest models, I can see ten times the traffic over the next few months.
Don't forget that notifications alone will add a tremendous new amount of traffic that wasn't there before. The new MMS will also add a good deal to that traffic if people actually decide to use it with photos, something that also couldn't be done before. An MMS can now be well over ten thousand times larger because of photos. That would surely count to a ten times increase of network traffic way beyond its usage. In the USA last year, I read that a trillion messages were sent. How many from the iPhone, I don't know. But think of what will happen if people who were sending an SMS of an average size of 200 bytes now send MMS's with photos that average 500,000 bytes. If only 20% of people do that, the average SMS will have ballooned to 100,000 bytes.
So, yes, I definitely can see ten times the traffic.
They're buying a new generation of routers that didn't exist 6 month ago. I think AT&T had planed this for a while. But it's very expensive. Why do people forget that? It's going to cost them $10 billion to finish this latest rollout. Then they're going to do another.
And in addition, what do they have, 20 thousand or more towers that need upgrading?
I don't think they expect ten times the traffic overnight. But as all phones will get the 3.0 upgrade, and all the 3G's, which are the majority of phones out now will see major new services that weren't available before, along with expected strong sales of the newest models, I can see ten times the traffic over the next few months.
Don't forget that notifications alone will add a tremendous new amount of traffic that wasn't there before. The new MMS will also add a good deal to that traffic if people actually decide to use it with photos, something that also couldn't be done before. An MMS can now be well over ten thousand times larger because of photos. That would surely count to a ten times increase of network traffic way beyond its usage. In the USA last year, I read that a trillion messages were sent. How many from the iPhone, I don't know. But think of what will happen if people who were sending an SMS of an average size of 200 bytes now send MMS's with photos that average 500,000 bytes. If only 20% of people do that, the average SMS will have ballooned to 100,000 bytes.
So, yes, I definitely can see ten times the traffic.
I don't think you're disagreeing with me here-- as I've said, let's assume that the ten times the traffic part is true-- my question remains: can AT&T provide ten times the capacity, "over the next few months"?
New routers, fine, expensive, you bet, many towers need upgrading, yes.
But every carrier has their upgrade map and rollout schedules and equipment acquisition plans and budgets, and I'm not aware of anyone who has managed that kind of enormous expansion in data services over time frames measured in anything but years.
So, again: assuming the ten fold increase in demand is correct, over a period of months, I can't see how AT&T can actually match their capacity increase to that curve, unless cell phone carriers in general have been shining us on, till now, and can actually move much, much more quickly with rolling out service improvements that they've led us to believe.
Which means there is going to be at least some period during which the average data using iPhone experience is going to be at least somewhat negatively impacted.