This analyst has apparently been dipping into the crackjar. Why he even thinks there would be a need for such a long view (so far as the market goes) for his investors makes his judgement highly questionable. If he could accurately tell me what will happen in the next quarter, I'd hire him in a heartbeat.
If you want to know what's happening in the next quarter, and you were an investor, you wouldn't need him. Most investors invest for the long term, sometimes for decades. They want to invest in growth stocks, or stiocks that issue dividends. They don't sell when prices go up or down.
Selling involves paying taxes. Sometimes it's better to hold a stock that's retreating, than to sell into taxes. Even the capital gains of 15% is too much to lose, because you then have to buy into stocks again. Sell in less than a year, and your taxes for the sale can be almost 38% (depending on income). That's why I try to hold for at least a year, unless I'm selling my IRA accounts.
I'm a long, long term investor too, but these crystal ball predictions are absurd. C'mon.
I don't think they're meant to be absolute. Just based on projections. You know how that works. There is an increasingly larger area of doubt as we move further outware. This is likely just the middle of the range, the average.
One problem is that Apple is one company. They are competing against an ecology of PC makers, and MS.
Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.
I know that he is speaking of the home markets (and possibly schools), but without the business and governmental markets as well, there is only so far that Apple can go.
I totally agree.
I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.
Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?
I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.
I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.
Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.
I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room
I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.
Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?
I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.
I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.
Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.
I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room
It's a difficult problem to understand.
I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.
I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.
What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.
The same differences are in the city school committees.
The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.
There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac
It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.
I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.
I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.
What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.
The same differences are in the city school committees.
The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.
There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac
It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.
Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile. ...No freeway driving though. Just 'round the block.
Buried in the article is the assertion that by 2016, Apple will have 40% of the US and European home markets. That's pretty huge, and means good things for software availability.
I think 10 year predictions in the computer industry are stupid, after looking at all analysis and surveying the situation, it comes down to guess work. If both companies keep going as they are going (Apple & Microsoft) I could see Apple with a worldwide home market share of 25% by 2016. But that's if! Microsoft is going to copy everything Apple does, cause they have to, and Mac's are going to get viral attacks, which will have people saying Mac's aren't any safer. Then there's things like; Google may bring out an OS. Who knows what the future holds with regards to anything, especially tech and computers.
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile. ...No freeway driving though. Just 'round the block.
The problem with Parallels is that you have to spend another $70 to $80 for it, and then another minium of $90 for XP Home, which many people won't want to do.
MS is now making it even more difficult by requiring one to buy a business version of Vista for at least (at list) $299!
But, even then, you are not allowed to run any software with DRM, so what's the point?
While I do agree with your first sentence, when it comes to your second one let's be realistic here.
the NYTimes has an article today about takeup rates through 2010 for various Windows versions, and others such as Mac OS, and Linux. It's disappointing, to say the least.
I'll give the link, but I'm not sure if it will work if you don't have the free subscription. Let me know.
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).
That would be a powerful combination.
Both OS X and Solaris are based on Unix, they could be merged, with the Mac GUI, and Suns' file system. Google would add the online software presence, search, and entry point. The company would then range between fairly inexpensive home machines and the largest business and government servers, all running the same OS, with Suns' enterprise and government sales group selling them into those markets.
There are other synergies between the three that I'm not mentioning, that I'm sure others can come up with.
This would be the only true threat to MS that there can be now. No one else can compete with them anymore on all levels, and markets, as this one would.
I know some will shrink at this idea, but I really think it is a good one.
Comments
This analyst has apparently been dipping into the crackjar. Why he even thinks there would be a need for such a long view (so far as the market goes) for his investors makes his judgement highly questionable. If he could accurately tell me what will happen in the next quarter, I'd hire him in a heartbeat.
If you want to know what's happening in the next quarter, and you were an investor, you wouldn't need him. Most investors invest for the long term, sometimes for decades. They want to invest in growth stocks, or stiocks that issue dividends. They don't sell when prices go up or down.
Selling involves paying taxes. Sometimes it's better to hold a stock that's retreating, than to sell into taxes. Even the capital gains of 15% is too much to lose, because you then have to buy into stocks again. Sell in less than a year, and your taxes for the sale can be almost 38% (depending on income). That's why I try to hold for at least a year, unless I'm selling my IRA accounts.
I'm a long, long term investor too, but these crystal ball predictions are absurd. C'mon.
I don't think they're meant to be absolute. Just based on projections. You know how that works. There is an increasingly larger area of doubt as we move further outware. This is likely just the middle of the range, the average.
also if apple where to come with mac osx for any pc they may see 25% + of the os market
With out a head less mid end desk top I don't see apple going very far.
Nah Mac market share won't budge an inch without that.
Apple has a 33% share in my home.
Hmmmm..... I can't quite figure out the arithmetic here.
(Unless, of course, you are also going to be getting rid of a PC that you currenly own).
First post jitters? I had the same not too long ago.....
One problem is that Apple is one company. They are competing against an ecology of PC makers, and MS.
Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.
I know that he is speaking of the home markets (and possibly schools), but without the business and governmental markets as well, there is only so far that Apple can go.
I totally agree.
I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.
Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?
I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.
I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.
Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.
I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room
I totally agree.
I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.
Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?
I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.
I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.
Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.
I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room
It's a difficult problem to understand.
I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.
I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.
What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.
The same differences are in the city school committees.
The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.
There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac
It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.
It's a difficult problem to understand.
I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.
I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.
What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.
The same differences are in the city school committees.
The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.
There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac
It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.
Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile.
I would not put too much faith in a long term projection about market share. Who knows Linux might have 60% of the OS usage by 2016.
While I do agree with your first sentence, when it comes to your second one let's be realistic here.
Buried in the article is the assertion that by 2016, Apple will have 40% of the US and European home markets. That's pretty huge, and means good things for software availability.
Not a chance.
Google may bring out an OS.
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
Here & here
Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile.
The problem with Parallels is that you have to spend another $70 to $80 for it, and then another minium of $90 for XP Home, which many people won't want to do.
MS is now making it even more difficult by requiring one to buy a business version of Vista for at least (at list) $299!
But, even then, you are not allowed to run any software with DRM, so what's the point?
While I do agree with your first sentence, when it comes to your second one let's be realistic here.
the NYTimes has an article today about takeup rates through 2010 for various Windows versions, and others such as Mac OS, and Linux. It's disappointing, to say the least.
I'll give the link, but I'm not sure if it will work if you don't have the free subscription. Let me know.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/te...ss&oref=slogin
I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?
And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).
That would be a powerful combination.
Both OS X and Solaris are based on Unix, they could be merged, with the Mac GUI, and Suns' file system. Google would add the online software presence, search, and entry point. The company would then range between fairly inexpensive home machines and the largest business and government servers, all running the same OS, with Suns' enterprise and government sales group selling them into those markets.
There are other synergies between the three that I'm not mentioning, that I'm sure others can come up with.
This would be the only true threat to MS that there can be now. No one else can compete with them anymore on all levels, and markets, as this one would.
I know some will shrink at this idea, but I really think it is a good one.