WSJ's Mossberg calls iPhone a 'breakthrough handheld computer'

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  • Reply 41 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    I think that the competition will get better, but it ain't gonna be easy and Apple has a big lead at this time. The current handset makers will need to improve their hardware and software and for many they don't have control over the software. The iPhones first 'competitor' will probably be iPhone 2.0.



    I wonder just how versatile those other phone OSes are.



    As far as I know, they're much smaller than computer OSes. Even Win Mobile isn't real Windows. It's a totally different OS with the name, and a similar desktop.



    An example would be Safari. Do these other phone OSes have the ability to host a "real" browser? If not, they can't compete there.



    If the iPhone, with OS X, and its much larger set of API's as well as the iPhones ability to accept updates, and hopefully, upgrades as well, the other companies may have to rewrite their OSes. That would take time.



    The phones would also have to able to accept those updates and upgrades. It's highly unusual for a phone to have OS upgrades.



    This would give Apple a major advantage. How long would it take to totally re-do those OSes? a year? Two years?



    This also makes the iPhone much cheaper then it seems.



    As long as the hardware is fine, the upgraded OS and software would keep it current, thus allowing one to keep it for a longer time. that would cut the long term cost significantly.
  • Reply 42 of 66
    a_greera_greer Posts: 4,594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by physguy View Post


    And the other review by Levy and Baig? They all seem consistent and rather balanced.



    how is your reply BEFORE my post
  • Reply 43 of 66
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by a_greer View Post


    how is your reply BEFORE my post



    I thought that's been happening since AI's server fiasco during WWDC, though it's much better now. I still seen it happen a few times in the last week. The worst was when the date stamp was several years off, I think I had one email come in saying a new post was posted in 2019.
  • Reply 44 of 66
    physguyphysguy Posts: 920member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by a_greer View Post


    how is your reply BEFORE my post



    Search Me
  • Reply 45 of 66
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,368member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I wonder just how versatile those other phone OSes are.



    As far as I know, they're much smaller than computer OSes. Even Win Mobile isn't real Windows. It's a totally different OS with the name, and a similar desktop.



    An example would be Safari. Do these other phone OSes have the ability to host a "real" browser? If not, they can't compete there.



    If the iPhone, with OS X, and its much larger set of API's as well as the iPhones ability to accept updates, and hopefully, upgrades as well, the other companies may have to rewrite their OSes. That would take time.



    The phones would also have to able to accept those updates and upgrades. It's highly unusual for a phone to have OS upgrades.



    This would give Apple a major advantage. How long would it take to totally re-do those OSes? a year? Two years?



    This also makes the iPhone much cheaper then it seems.



    As long as the hardware is fine, the upgraded OS and software would keep it current, thus allowing one to keep it for a longer time. that would cut the long term cost significantly.



    I agree with all your points. My only concern would be: If the 2.5G v. 3G is "hardwired" (I am not technologically savvy enough to know if what I am saying is even a fact) then I worry that a year later, everyone -- incl. ATT and Apple -- will have moved on to 3G, abandoned 2.5 (or let it waste away w/o any new investments), and I could end up stuck with a piece of hardware that software updates alone can't fix!



    That said, I am condemned to get mine this Friday....
  • Reply 46 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I agree with all your points. My only concern would be: If the 2.5G v. 3G is "hardwired" (I am not technologically savvy enough to know if what I am saying is even a fact) then I worry that a year later, everyone -- incl. ATT and Apple -- will have moved on to 3G, abandoned 2.5 (or let it waste away w/o any new investments), and I could end up stuck with a piece of hardware that software updates alone can't fix!



    That said, I am condemned to get mine this Friday....



    Right. There will be people for whom even a slow internet experience would be fine, if they don't use it at random times, and can wait 'till they get to a WiFi spot, or perhaps their wireless network at home, if they have one. Though, at home, I would never want to use my phone for internet service at any speed, except for a quick weather, or sports score update.



    Otherwise, waiting for the 3G version should take care of that one real problem, as memory increases would likely come at the same time, or earlier.



    The 2nd gen phone could be good for five years.
  • Reply 47 of 66
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I agree with all your points. My only concern would be: If the 2.5G v. 3G is "hardwired" (I am not technologically savvy enough to know if what I am saying is even a fact) then I worry that a year later, everyone -- incl. ATT and Apple -- will have moved on to 3G, abandoned 2.5 (or let it waste away w/o any new investments), and I could end up stuck with a piece of hardware that software updates alone can't fix!



    That said, I am condemned to get mine this Friday....



    Remember that there are still some regions in the US without ANY cell service at all, let alone 3G. Right now only the big cities have AT&T's 3G, so it will be years before all regions in the US can use it. There will be plenty of people who have no use for a 3G iPhone for quite a while.
  • Reply 48 of 66
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I don't think the long run is anything to worry about. By then, we will see a 3G version, Jobs said as much.



    If there's a 3G iPhone by '08, as we've both speculated elsewhere, and the prices come down a bit, then yeah, that would slam the door shut to the multitudes of 'iPhone killers' (lol) that will no doubt start appearing in earnest in a few months.



    I'm just worried that Apple's head is going to swell a bit too much from the (guaranteed) launch mega-success and hype, and will revert to its 'bad old' stubborn ways, which would be 'no 3G until we absolutely HAVE to, you buy what we say' and no movement at all on price or lower-priced new models. \



    The main doors to entry for the iPod wannabees will be 3G (during a time period where Apple still doesn't have it, obviously) and lower price. They can't 'out iPhone the iPhone', so that would be the way.



    Me, I just wanna see the ZunePhone get slaughtered, when it shows up.





    Early mockup of ZunePhone



    .
  • Reply 49 of 66
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BRussell View Post


    Remember that there are still some regions in the US without ANY cell service at all, let alone 3G. Right now only the big cities have AT&T's 3G, so it will be years before all regions in the US can use it. There will be plenty of people who have no use for a 3G iPhone for quite a while.



    Give it a year, year and a half... ATT's 3G coverage will likely be decent by then. Verizon and Sprint's 3G EVDO coverage is already pretty good, and they're about 12-18 months ahead of ATT in their 3G deployments.



    .
  • Reply 50 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    If there's a 3G iPhone by '08, as we've both speculated elsewhere, and the prices come down a bit, then yeah, that would slam the door shut to the multitudes of 'iPhone killers' (lol) that will no doubt start appearing in earnest in a few months.



    I'm just worried that Apple's head is going to swell a bit too much from the (guaranteed) launch mega-success and hype, and will revert to its 'bad old' stubborn ways, which would be 'no 3G until we absolutely HAVE to, you buy what we say' and no movement at all on price or lower-priced new models. \



    The main doors to entry for the iPod wannabees will be 3G (during a time period where Apple still doesn't have it, obviously) and lower price. They can't 'out iPhone the iPhone', so that would be the way.



    Me, I just wanna see the ZunePhone get slaughtered, when it shows up.



    .



    Very good! I assume that's you?



    MS has stated that they wouldn't do a phone, but then, they stated they wouldn't pull an iPod either.



    I am hoping that your speculation that Apple will drag their feet isn't true. We've been seeing them do that to their other products up and down the line.



    What has always bothered me about Apple is that they will often come out with an innovative product, or line of products, and then let them sit and moulder while other companies move past them. Only when sales seem to be faltering do they then advance the product. That's not a good strategy, even though some here seem to think it is.



    We can look at their LCD monitor line. When Apple came out with each model, going back to the first, they were the best quality, and the lowest priced. But Apple sat on them. Other companies came out with monitors that were higher priced, but brought out new models at a rapid pace, pricing them lower each time. But Apple would keep that product line for too long, lowering the price slightly, a bit at a time. After a while, Apple's monitors become overpriced, feature shy, and lack the picture quality that some other, less expensive models have. While many PC people have wanted to buy Apple's monitors, Apple has refused to add software that would allow PC's to adjust them.



    This is poor thinking.



    The biggest problem with this phone is the lack of 3G. That's a consensus amongst reviewers. It must be resolved soon.



    The keyboard is another.



    then there are the odd little things. Pogue's article in the NYTimes today enumerates them.



    Why no voice memo's, voice dialing, or call recording?



    Why no games, lyrics, video output to Tv, or disk mode?



    Why no wireless bluetooth stereo headphones? Someone here was wondering. Now we know.



    Why no stored passwords in Safari? Why no RSS, streaming audio, or video?



    Why don't To Do items from the computer show up on the iPhone? Why is the opposite for memos also no?



    I hope Apple will address these issues, but there is no expectation they will. It might be a choice for them that they won't reverse, at least for some of it.
  • Reply 51 of 66
    cdlcdl Posts: 6member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    then there are the odd little things. Pogue's article in the NYTimes today enumerates them.



    Why no voice memo's, voice dialing, or call recording?



    Why no games, lyrics, video output to Tv, or disk mode?



    Why no wireless bluetooth stereo headphones? Someone here was wondering. Now we know.



    Why no stored passwords in Safari? Why no RSS, streaming audio, or video?



    Why don't To Do items from the computer show up on the iPhone? Why is the opposite for memos also no?



    I hope Apple will address these issues, but there is no expectation they will. It might be a choice for them that they won't reverse, at least for some of it.



    My assumption is that they had to draw a line somewhere (in scope of features) in order to meet software/hardware QA and the launch date set by Steve. The bar set for this launch is very high, no doubt.



    Given that this is version 1 of a product that Apple has never created before, there is a *lot* riding on getting the iPhone as glitch-free as possible right out of the gate. Look at the hype. Apple knew this product would be put under a microscope by every media outlet, blogger and competitor out there. Any major, or even minor problem w/ v.1 could easily tarnish the iPhone's reputation for a long time (witness what happened to Newton after version 1's problems).



    Additionally, if Apple truly diverted resources from Leopard to the iPhone project, then that tells me Apple had their hands full meeting said QA/timeline goals already.



    I'm willing to guess, therefore, that they chose to keep the feature set limited, knowing that many of those features can be added months, weeks, or even days after launch via software updates. A lot of the missing items noted definitely fall under this category of easy fixes. It's a good tradeoff, especially if Steve and his team can sleep better the night before launch, knowing it's as perfect as it's going to get for Version 1.0.
  • Reply 52 of 66
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    ^



    ++++
  • Reply 53 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cdl View Post


    My assumption is that they had to draw a line somewhere (in scope of features) in order to meet software/hardware QA and the launch date set by Steve. The bar set for this launch is very high, no doubt.



    Given that this is version 1 of a product that Apple has never created before, there is a *lot* riding on getting the iPhone as glitch-free as possible right out of the gate. Look at the hype. Apple knew this product would be put under a microscope by every media outlet, blogger and competitor out there. Any major, or even minor problem w/ v.1 could easily tarnish the iPhone's reputation for a long time (witness what happened to Newton after version 1's problems).



    Additionally, if Apple truly diverted resources from Leopard to the iPhone project, then that tells me Apple had their hands full meeting said QA/timeline goals already.



    I'm willing to guess, therefore, that they chose to keep the feature set limited, knowing that many of those features can be added months, weeks, or even days after launch via software updates. A lot of the missing items noted definitely fall under this category of easy fixes. It's a good tradeoff, especially if Steve and his team can sleep better the night before launch, knowing it's as perfect as it's going to get for Version 1.0.



    Some of these features are so basic, that I can only think that they were deliberately left out, not that they had no time.



    Some features were in the first iPods. with the "This is the best iPod we've ever made" statement from Jobs, we had a right to expect that ALL of the iPod feature set would have made it over, but improved. They didn't.



    Some of these features are so minor, in a programming way, that is, that there is simply no excuse for it.



    There was no reason, for example, that Apple couldn't have made that keyboard work horizontally in every mode. According to Jobs, it wasn't thought to be needed. Why is that? If its needed for Safari, it isn't needed for the other much more intensive typing programs? That makes no sense. Writing a piece of software to allow it to turn in Safari can't be that much simpler than to write on for mail. It can't be that much simpler than to write one that would just turn, no matter which program was on.



    No. It was deliberate.



    And so, I believe, was every other feature present, and not present.



    I'm not saying that Apple will never change its mind about some of them, but there is no guarantee that they will either.
  • Reply 54 of 66
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Very good! I assume that's you?



    Sadly, I can't take credit. It's from a (pretty funny) YouTube video:



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRLRjKCGHek



    Quote:

    MS has stated that they wouldn't do a phone, but then, they stated they wouldn't pull an iPod either.



    We've heard conflicting tidbits from them. Check this one out, from MS's local newspaper, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer:



    Reporter: "Any thoughts on how you can compete as cell phones become more prevalent as far as MP3 playing technology?"



    Chris Stephenson, GM, Zune marketing: "As I said earlier on, the entire Zune platform and brand is about a family of devices. So to the degree that phones and other products exist in the family going forward, absolutely, that's definitely where this is all going."




    Reporter: "So a Zune phone is somewhere over the horizon?"



    Stephenson: "There is a possibility for a Zune phone, yes."



    Later, another reporter: "You raised the possibility of a Zune phone. Does that mean it's going to be a Zune-branded phone, or is it going to be a phone made by someone else with the Zune software on it?"



    Stephenson: "We don't have any specifics to announce on that. I think what I was saying is that a Zune phone is definitely part of the future of this brand. We really don't have any specifics to announce right now."




    http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/m...ves/106809.asp



    My feeling is that they will do one. C'mon, since when has Microsoft ever resisted the urge to copy Apple?



    Quote:

    I am hoping that your speculation that Apple will drag their feet isn't true. We've been seeing them do that to their other products up and down the line.



    What has always bothered me about Apple is that they will often come out with an innovative product, or line of products, and then let them sit and moulder while other companies move past them. Only when sales seem to be faltering do they then advance the product. That's not a good strategy, even though some here seem to think it is.



    We can look at their LCD monitor line. When Apple came out with each model, going back to the first, they were the best quality, and the lowest priced. But Apple sat on them. Other companies came out with monitors that were higher priced, but brought out new models at a rapid pace, pricing them lower each time. But Apple would keep that product line for too long, lowering the price slightly, a bit at a time. After a while, Apple's monitors become overpriced, feature shy, and lack the picture quality that some other, less expensive models have. While many PC people have wanted to buy Apple's monitors, Apple has refused to add software that would allow PC's to adjust them.



    This is poor thinking.



    You aren't wrong. This is something that really bothers me about Apple. They sometimes mishandle opportunities and are less aggressive than they should be. The iPod has been a wonderful exception so far. I just wish they were that aggressive across the board.



    .
  • Reply 55 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    My feeling is that they will do one. C'mon, since when has Microsoft ever resisted the urge to copy Apple?



    In an interview, which I'm not going to look for now, Ballmer himself said that they weren't going to do it because of Windows Mobile, which has been gaining strength, and many more phones to run on.



    That might not last, but he was pretty emphatic about it.



    Quote:

    You aren't wrong. This is something that really bothers me about Apple. They sometimes mishandle opportunities and are less aggressive than they should be. The iPod has been a wonderful exception so far. I just wish they were that aggressive across the board.



    .



    It's been frustrating, but they've done it with the iPods as well.



    They could have come out with an iPod with a bigger screen already. They could have revamped the interface. There are things they could have done several months ago.



    You might have noticed that sales are falling. Not compared to last year, but the trend is continuing downward. The marketshare was below 70% for the first time in a long time.
  • Reply 56 of 66
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    You might have noticed that sales are falling. Not compared to last year, but the trend is continuing downward. The marketshare was below 70% for the first time in a long time.



    Eh? There's no evidence of that at all. There are seasonal variations, with Christmas season getting stratospherically high numbers and other seasons just sky high, but the trend is still upwards, with no signs of going downward so far.
  • Reply 57 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BRussell View Post


    Eh? There's no evidence of that at all. There are seasonal variations, with Christmas season getting stratospherically high numbers and other seasons just sky high, but the trend is still upwards, with no signs of going downward so far.



    All that article shows of use is that tne drop after the holiday season this year was bigger in percentage than last year, which is the point I made. Estimated sales for this quarter, over shortly, have been revised downwards several times. It's now not expected to reach 10 million. Last quarters sales didn't make the estimates either, for the first time. That article is also not entirely up to date, as it doesn't include monthly sales figures.
  • Reply 58 of 66
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    You said "sales are falling," and "the trend is continuing downward," melgross. That is just not true. Of course sales were down from the Christmas season - they sold over 20 million of the frickin things over that quarter! But it was still up from the year-ago quarter, not to mention previous years. We'll see what happens this quarter, but a downward trend hasn't happened yet.
  • Reply 59 of 66
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,334member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BRussell View Post


    You said "sales are falling," and "the trend is continuing downward," melgross. That is just not true. Of course sales were down from the Christmas season - they sold over 20 million of the frickin things over that quarter! But it was still up from the year-ago quarter, not to mention previous years. We'll see what happens this quarter, but a downward trend hasn't happened yet.



    It is true. month to month, and quarter to quarter.



    I said that the PERCENTAGE of fall after the holiday was greater. I didn't say that total sales were less than last year.



    People are waiting for something new, so they hold back on buying. With the iPhone, many people will be holding back. What will happen? Some will buy iPhones and some won't buy until they see a new model, or will buy something else. Yes, people do buy something else. The sales of the SanDisk models have been gaining momentum.



    It's only a few percent here and there. It won't be long before we see the figures. I'd prefer to wait until then to continue with this.
  • Reply 60 of 66
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    In an interview, which I'm not going to look for now, Ballmer himself said that they weren't going to do it because of Windows Mobile, which has been gaining strength, and many more phones to run on.



    That might not last, but he was pretty emphatic about it.



    I'd guess that similar assurances were given to Microsoft's PlaysForSure partners in regards to the rumors of a Microsoft mp3 player. Can ya say 'Zune'? \



    Windows Mobile is a pretty tiny share of the overall market. If it becomes at all advantageous, MS will backstab... ahem, 'jump in and compete with' the WM phone makers too... especially considering that the appearance of a ZunePhone doesn't automatically mean that everyone else will stop making Windows Mobile phones. MS's former PFS parnters haven't stopped making PFS-compatible mp3 players since the Zune came out.



    It all comes down to how well Windows Mobile competes using the hardware and designs that the incumbent phone makers are cranking out. If WM phones are playing 'New Jersey Generals' to the iPhone's 'Harlem Globetrotters', you'd think MS will jump in. Its not like WM is setting the world on fire, as is:







    They've only got like 5% of the smartphone market, which itself is only a fraction of the overall cellphone market. Blah... :



    With the smartphone market approximating 10% of all mobile phone sales, it amounts to roughly 100 million devices sold per year. Of those 100 million, Windows Mobile appears on 5.6%, or 5.6 million of them. So, in the 5 years that Windows Mobile has been around, it has barely cracked 0.6% of all mobile phone sales. Ballmer has a long, long way to go to reach his target of 60%.



    In light of Windows Mobile's success, or lack thereof depending on your point of view, I'd say Ballmer doesn't have all that much to crow about.




    http://www.informationweek.com/blog/...r_says_ip.html





    .
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