RIM sees no slowdown as analyst questions 10M iPhone target

124678

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 155
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    Jobs clearly says Apple will try to grab 1% by 2008 (the 1st full year). 1% market share in that presentation equals 10M iPhones total by the end of 2008. Case Closed.



    Yes. Jan 1, 2008 to Dec 31, 2008. The first "full year." If only Apple had said these things in a PR instead of in video, people wouldn't get them wrong so much



    As for whether Apple targets 1% of the unkown future 2008 market, or simply 10 million, the 10 million is the number they have stood by. Of course that prediction is really a piece of trivia few will care about--and those that do will affect the stock price only temporarily. Apple could sell 9 million or 12 million in 2008 and the iPhone is still a success with no signs of stopping, and a success the competition would kill to have with their first phone!
  • Reply 62 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    I am so fed up of fanbois who don't read the fine print.



    http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7010138345



    It's not the fine print they miss, it's the entire article. Headlines only, if an analyst criticizes or downgrades Apple they are attacked for not having a brain in their head. The same analyst can come out 3 months later with positive news on Apple and they all jump on the analysts bandwagon. Pavlovian responses...
  • Reply 63 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    Watch this... from about the 3 minute mark http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related



    Jobs clearly says Apple will try to grab 1% by 2008 (the 1st full year). 1% market share in that presentation equals 10M iPhones total by the end of 2008. Case Closed.



    No he doesn't. He says "That's what we're going to try and do IN 2008" and then repeats it "1% market share, 10 million units IN 2008".



    You really think it sounds like he says "BY"?
  • Reply 64 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    btw, where are you getting your numbers from, genius? post the source.



    Here. 10th paragraph down. Try reading the article. I can't make this any easier. You're going to have to help.
  • Reply 65 of 155
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post


    You seem to be the one not reading here...we get those points. We just don't agree that there will be no launch in Asia, no 3G, and no price cut this year. Do you think that none of those will happen?



    If you rely on that argument --- then I can't argue with you because basically you can argue a zillion different scenario that are not in the current time.



    Jobs said 10 million iphones at $600 each. Then price drop to $400, and maintains the 10 million iphone goal. Then price drop to ... Then 3G iphone launch... Then Asia launch....



    The goal post is constantly moving to satisfy their press releases.



    It's like what Bush is doing with Iraq --- constantly moving the goal post. Before it was making Iraq the democratic model in Middle East. Now the goal post is let's try to get ourselves out of this mess without destabilizing the whole subcontinent.
  • Reply 66 of 155
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by steviet02 View Post


    if an analyst criticizess or downgrades Apple they are attacked for not having a brain in their head. ... Pavlovian responses...



    I'm curious... if those analysts should NOT be criticized for downgrading Apple, then when have they been RIGHT about Apple's stock being in trouble? (Outside of the short-term fluctuations that anyone can see happen year after year.)



    If they've never been right, then the criticism against them is not necessarily merely Pavlovian



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Jobs said 10 million iphones at $600 each. Then price drop to $400, and maintains the 10 million iphone goal. Then price drop to ... Then 3G iphone launch... Then Asia launch....



    The goal post is constantly moving to satisfy their press releases.



    No, Jobs never said 10 million iPhones would be sold without any changes to prices or models. Such a statement would have been blatantly absurd, since prices and models DO always change. In fact, way back in the initial keynote he said a 3G iPhone and other "interesting" things WERE coming.
  • Reply 67 of 155
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    Watch this... from about the 3 minute mark http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-X_nLCz6Hc&feature=related



    Jobs clearly says Apple will try to grab 1% by 2008 (the 1st full year). 1% market share in that presentation equals 10M iPhones total by the end of 2008. Case Closed.



    What case closed?



    There are a zillion different numbers you can come out with that statement.



    1% market share from July 2007 to December 2008 is 1.1 billion/2 + 1.25 billion = 1% of 1.8 billion cell phones (which is 18 million iphones).
  • Reply 68 of 155
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    No, Jobs never said 10 million iPhones would be sold without any changes to prices or models. Such a statement would have been blatantly absurd, since prices and models DO always change. In fact, way back in the initial keynote he said a 3G iPhone and other "interesting" things WERE coming.



    Yes, prices do change --- but they don't change so fast and so drastic that they had to give out $100 rebate.



    Next are you going to give out an estimate of 10 million iphone sales goal based on zero dollar iphones.
  • Reply 69 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    "In" is the same as "by the end of". They both occur within the 2008 timeframe.



    This postis not targeted at anyone post in particular, but I think it's important to getthe RIMM people out of the way on the forcasted target by Apple on iPhone sales. It's pretty clear we do not have a lot of people that are familiar with what the goal is and the forcast, and how Apple works.



    If you don't understand Apple, you need to do some research, because Apple always does this same thing they did here with ALL their products.



    They are talking about when they will hit the 10 million sales mark.

    They will do that IN 2008.

    They did NOT say they will actually sell 10 million DURING 2008, they said they will reach 10 million IN 2008.



    Apple never talks about annual iTune sales. They pump their chest talking about iPod's sold and not ANNUAL sales of iPods. (kind of silly when you consider that most people threw away their early iPods when they replaced with a new model)



    Apple forcasts sales for promotional purposes just like McDonalds does it's hamburgers.

    Over 50 million sold. (not during the last year)



    Look at the slide Steve used, and he's talking about a bar chart that will continue to grow even after 2008.



    They will hit 10 million in iPhone sales in 2008.

    If they come out with a new iPhone model during 2008, and a bunch of people replace their old phone with the new one, Apple will count that as 2 sales. Because they do it this way, you have to take them at their word that what they say they can do.... they will do.

    Because if it looks like they can't, they will make changes to models or pricing that guarantees new demand from the old faithful.



    You people that don't understand Apple need to just relax.

    You can't say Apple has a huge problem with people wanting the phone so bad they pay extra and hack it to use it, and also say they have no demand.



    Let's be real........
  • Reply 70 of 155
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Yes, prices do change --- but they don't change so fast and so drastic that they had to give out $100 rebate.



    They certainly DO change that fast. You're singling out the $100 rebate as key to the 10 mil goal now? That was a mere PR gesture in response to a vocal minority that got surprising press attention--or not surprising, considering that anything Apple is "news." Of course it's upsetting when products drop in price--always has been, always will be.



    If you look at the history of mobile phones (take the Razr for instance) you'll see that BIG and RAPID price drops ARE quite commonplace. There was nothing unusual about it for a phone. What was unusual is that Apple was making phones And of course the large quantity of flash storage--nearly unheard of in other brands at the time--has an effect on pricing too.



    Anyway, what difference does it make, in your view:



    a) Whether Apple sells 10 million or not.



    b) How they did it?



    The iPhone is a success no matter how you slant those questions, so they're of limited interest. In the case of this article, doubts have been raised about Apple making 10 mil, but many of us don't share that concern and have stated why.



    I assume that Apple expected to sell 10 million by using whatever strategies the market and the technology might call for in the 18 months ahead. You seem to assume Apple expected to sell 10 million with certain strategies (like big price reductions for the holidays) being somehow "off limits" or "unfair." Yet Apple has made a ton of money with those strategies, and offered a competitive value both before AND after the price drop, so I'm not sure I understand why it matters.



    Quote:

    Next are you going to give out an estimate of 10 million iphone sales goal based on zero dollar iphones.



    Well, that WOULD make sense, if Apple sold zero-dollar iPhones. But... they don't. All sales estimates--and sales realities--will occur with phones selling for what iPhones ACTUALLY cost. Which, like the models and specs, will change over time.
  • Reply 71 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    What case closed?



    There are a zillion different numbers you can come out with that statement.



    1% market share from July 2007 to December 2008 is 1.1 billion/2 + 1.25 billion = 1% of 1.8 billion cell phones (which is 18 million iphones).



    You guys overaalyze every single word waaaay too much.



    The name of this board should be changed to Apple-Imminent-Failure, judging by the way the majority of people scrutinize every single detail of every product.



    1% share in 2008 means they will achieve 1% markeshare in 2008, not sell 1% market share in the given year. Common freakin sense.



    Who says "we will sell 3.5% marketshare this year and in 2009"... doesn't make sense, does it?
  • Reply 72 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    Apple going up doesn't have to mean that RIM has to go down, and RIM doesn't have to go down for Apple to go up, I think it's a ludicrous thing to think otherwise. The typical person interested in an iPhone isn't necessarily and probably isn't like the typical Blackberry user.



    RIM's days are numbered. I've had the same Blackberry now for 4 years, and the reason I haven't upgraded was that their phones have progressed so little. They added a speaker phone, camera GPS but other than that, it's the same shit software on it. There is only so far they can go.
  • Reply 73 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Jobs said 10 million iphones at $600 each. Then price drop to $400, and maintains the 10 million iphone goal. Then price drop to ... Then 3G iphone launch... Then Asia launch....



    The goal post is constantly moving to satisfy their press releases.



    I think you have it backwards. Jobs never said that they wouldn't drop prices, or that they wouldn't update the product, or that they wouldn't launch in new territories. With the release of ANY tech product, you know it will be updated and the price will drop as time goes on - it's completely unimaginable that a new product like that would stay at the same price with no updates for 18 months.



    You obviously somehow consider it "cheating", but if apple promised 10 million in 2008 and they deliver it, who cares?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post


    They are talking about when they will hit the 10 million sales mark.

    They will do that IN 2008.



    If they were, why didn't they say just that? But they didn't.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wbrasington View Post


    They did NOT say they will actually sell 10 million DURING 2008, they said they will reach 10 million IN 2008.



    Wrong. While they didn't use "during", they said they'd sell 10 million in 2008, not that they'd reach 10 million in 2008. Again, have they ever used the term "reach"? Feel free to try and find a quote that does.



    To put it simply, I'm saying that apple meant what they said.



    You're saying that apple said one thing but meant another (despite saying it the same way 4+ times).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    1% share in 2008 means they will achieve 1% markeshare in 2008, not sell 1% market share in the given year. Common freakin sense.



    Actually, they did say 1% in that given year. And they broke down the numbers further supporting that. Again, have you actually watched the videos linked here? While you may not feel that such a statement is common sense, that doesn't change the fact that it's exactly what Apple said.
  • Reply 74 of 155
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member
    In fact, RIM's success is in many ways GOOD for Apple:



    * It represents the growth of the high-end phone segment.



    * And it's not Microsoft (Windows Mobile).



    * And yet it's largely in the corporate market, not the consumer smartphone market that Apple is aiming for (and practically creating, for that matter).



    * And it's not driven by things that would actually threaten the iPhone: it's not from RIM actually delivering OS power and usability to rival mobile OS X.
  • Reply 75 of 155
    tofinotofino Posts: 697member
    I think the real point here is that RIM didn't experience the same slowdown in sales that apple did. now... i'm no expert, but i believe that holiday sales are probably a big part of that. i can't imagine too many people finding blackberries in their stockings or that businesses are planning their blackberry purchases around the holidays.



    i also don't think that apple is in direct competition with RIM. the iphone is marketed as a consumer product, that happens to be able to tie into exchange servers, if you can talk your (usually apple hostile) IT guys into letting you use IMAP to connect to it. businesses that are hooked into the blackberry eco-system aren't going to be switching to apple in a hurry. it works for them and usability is probably not that much of an issue for real crackberry addicts.



    if you compare iphone sales to windows mobile sales, i think you will see who apple is really targeting.
  • Reply 76 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    You guys overaalyze every single word waaaay too much.



    The name of this board should be changed to Apple-Imminent-Failure, judging by the way the majority of people scrutinize every single detail of every product.



    1% share in 2008 means they will achieve 1% markeshare in 2008, not sell 1% market share in the given year. Common freakin sense.



    Who says "we will sell 3.5% marketshare this year and in 2009"... doesn't make sense, does it?





    Thank you mdotdubz - I had to scroll all this way to finally see someone make sense of that keynote still.
  • Reply 77 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post


    Actually, they did say 1% in that given year. And they broke down the numbers further supporting that. Again, have you actually watched the videos linked here? While you may not feel that such a statement is common sense, that doesn't change the fact that it's exactly what Apple said.



    I,m sorry but what video are you watching?



    Steve's exact words are "we're gonna see if we could get 1% marketshare, 10M units, in 2008 and go from there"



    What is so complicated about comprehending that?



    Once again, who says, "we sold 5% market share in 2005". NOBODY. "We got or will get 5% market share in 2015" is the common useage of the term, which is exactly how it is applies by SJ.



    Case Closed. Please go back to school and learn basic English, Reading & Comprehension.



    (not you minder, no offense, I mean everyone else)



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jasonfj View Post


    Thank you mdotdubz - I had to scroll all this way to finally see someone make sense of that keynote still.



    I don't know why its soooo hard to comprehend



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tofino View Post




    if you compare iphone sales to windows mobile sales, i think you will see who apple is really targeting.



    Which Apple already beat in their 1st 6 months on the market. Same goes for Palm. RIMM is next, those dinosaurs days are numbered.
  • Reply 78 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdotdubz View Post


    Steve's exact words are "we're gonna see if we could get 1% marketshare, 10M units, in 2008 and go from there"



    What is so complicated about comprehending that?



    I wish you could tell me. 10M in 2008. I don't know how you can interpret 10M in 2008 to be "10M in the second half of 2007 plus all of 2008". Or "we'll hit the 10M mark in 2008". There are three other sources linked here that say the same thing, if you think that statement is open to any ambiguity.



    Let me repeat another quote:

    Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year — or will it be more?



    Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal.





    Can't be any more clear than that. 10M in the first calendar year, which is 10M between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008.
  • Reply 79 of 155
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post


    I wish you could tell me. 10M in 2008. I don't know how you can interpret 10M in 2008 to be "10M in the second half of 2007 plus all of 2008". Or "we'll hit the 10M mark in 2008". There are three other sources linked here that say the same thing, if you think that statement is open to any ambiguity.



    Let me repeat another quote:

    Q: Do you still think you'll sell 10 million iPhones in the first calendar year ? or will it be more?



    Jobs: We think 10 million is a realistic goal.





    Can't be any more clear than that. 10M in the first calendar year, which is 10M between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2008.



    dude, now your pulling stuff out of your ass. Where did you get this quote from? I was pretty sure we were arguing what was said in the Keynote in mwsf06, where the still shot was taken from earlier in the thread.



    Clearly, SJ is saying that, in the year 2008, Apple will surprass 10M (aka 1% marketshare) in sales, not sell 10M in 08, which they very well might, who knows.



    With your quote he is saying 10M is a realistic marker for them to pass in 2008, that 10M seems realistic to Apple.
    Your argument is completely baseless and your severely twisting words.



    Its competely clear what was said, live with it. The gloves don't fit. Case closed.
  • Reply 80 of 155
    lantznlantzn Posts: 240member
    hmm...maybe Apple has a bunch of "secret" employees, in other countries that don't have the iPhone yet, selling these unlocked phones so they can get them out there right away.



    Conspiracy theory. hehe
Sign In or Register to comment.