Analyst urges selling an "ebbing" Microsoft's stock

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  • Reply 61 of 80
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,609member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadow View Post


    Take a look at the chart.



    MS is not dying soon. But it's business model is dead. The way it was making money does not work anymore. The pressure from several sides is pretty high and growing. MS can no longer kill it's competitors in a blink. MS can no longer kill existing superior product by announcing vaporware. MS missed the boat on all new fronts (search engine, Zune, mobile OS). The only more or less successful new product category was the Xbox, but the respective department is still LOOSING money. Windows 7 might be a success (not a flop, that is) but listen to Dell and other PC players! They are no longer Microsoft's slaves, ant that is forever. Currently, the chances [future version of] WinMobile taking the world the way MS wants and claimed it will are as slim as chances of Linux taking over the desktop, and this seems to be the war for the future. So no, MS is not dead yet. And no, MS is not a good investment.



    I have held Apple stock much longer that that chart, and it has been a better investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future success.



    Microsoft has finally gotten some solid products released and in the pipe! They have had successful ad campaigns! Their stock is valued like an industrial conglomerate, but they have margins in the 50% range. They are losing in the server space, as they have been for the last 5-6 years, but the desktop space has been only a slight decline. Exchange is the most important component in MSFT's portfolio, as it links many products together. Sharepoint might be similar, but not as big.



    For my company, I am the only Mac. Thank you very much, Autodesk and Intuit! There is one computer that runs a bunch of other specialized software that will always be windows.



    The slow steady decline argument is 7-8 years old, and has played out quite well. Now, it looks like they have learned from both their own mistakes and those of others. If they do hobble Google with a few smart moves, it doesn't take much to do the same to others.
  • Reply 62 of 80
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,755member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


    I disagree. Mobile OS's will knock MS off the throne pretty darn rapidly IMO. By rapidly I mean the next 4 or 5 years.

    There is not much they can do about it, it is written.



    Exactly. There is far more potential for volume in personal mobile devices then desktops and laptops. At least one order of magnitude - perhaps several.
  • Reply 63 of 80
    macfandavemacfandave Posts: 603member
    "Ebbing" is a good description and I hope that it heralds the day that Microsoft becomes officially "beleaguered." From that day forward, the company might as well be knows as BMS, because every single article in the business press will have to use that adjective at the first mention of the company's name. It's a law, you know (see the stories about Apple 1997-98).



    "More bad news for beleaguered Microsoft. . ."



    Maybe Apple ought to invest, say, $150 miilion in MSFT, but only if Steve Jobs can announce it on a giant screen hovering over Steve Ballmer in front of a bunch of Microsoft fanboys. Excellent. . .
  • Reply 64 of 80
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,755member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by majortom1981 View Post


    Like I stated before for corporate anyway windows 7 is much much much better then Vista. Apple has a long way to go in this regard because of one thing , Group Policy.



    Apple has their equivalent of group policy, and it works quite well...



    Quote:

    PS I would love to have an al lmac network but group policy missing is the main reason why. (i wish apple and microsoft can get together and work out away for a windows server to have group policy like control over a mac osx desktop)



    You can. There are several third party add-ons from companies like Centrify or Quest. I wouldn't wait for MS to develop Mac integration any time soon (although they are finally providing integration with non MS software in their server management software).
  • Reply 65 of 80
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The slow steady decline argument is 7-8 years old, and has played out quite well. Now, it looks like they have learned from both their own mistakes and those of others. If they do hobble Google with a few smart moves, it doesn't take much to do the same to others.



    It's not a slow steady decline argument, but a transition from growth to more of a value investing profile argument. The company's biggest growth period is well behind it. This does not mean Microsoft will start losing money. It also doesn't mean that they will lose dominance in the areas where they have dominance. What it does mean is that these areas are no longer growing anywhere close to as rapidly as they once did (particularly during the '90s). This is why Microsoft is now priced by the markets like an industrial conglomerate -- because in effect, that is what they are.



    As far as learning from their mistakes, I question that. I believe Microsoft lacks the management creativity and boldness required to reestablish themselves as a major force in technology. It wouldn't be the first time. They are going the way of IBM.
  • Reply 66 of 80
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post


    Bill gates was the tech guy and did some programming. Ballmer was an MBA. He went to harvard business at the same time as cramer and the former ny governor were at harvard law school



    You mean this Steve Ballmer? He does Harvard proud!

    Bill Gates is the genius who invented Microsoft. Ballmer is the bean counter who destroyed it.

  • Reply 67 of 80
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    Apple has their equivalent of group policy, and it works quite well...



    They do? I cannot find anything of the sort on OS X client. I cannot lock down the machine beyond Standard user v. Administrator from what I've seen. Please enlighten. I would greatly appreciate it. PM me so I don't derail the thread any more than I have.



    Back on topic, I don't think you can count them out. They may just surprise us all when we become complacent and think the snake is dead. And if they go the way of IBM, they won't be doing too badly. IBM is a juggernaut. I do think they need to trim some fat and become a leaner, more agile company. That said, I'll probably always develop on their platform, unless my company does a huge about-face and switch to *nix/Java. We're MS entrenched in servers and application development.
  • Reply 68 of 80
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by azcodemonkey View Post


    Back on topic, I don't think you can count them out. They may just surprise us all when we become complacent and think the snake is dead. And if they go the way of IBM, they won't be doing too badly. IBM is a juggernaut. I do think they need to trim some fat and become a leaner, more agile company. That said, I'll probably always develop on their platform, unless my company does a huge about-face and switch to *nix/Java. We're MS entrenched in servers and application development.



    Until the 1970s or arguably the early '80s, IBM was a juggernaut, but today, In terms of influence, the company is a mere shadow of its former self. I'm old enough to remember when IBM was as feared/loathed as Microsoft is today, when they had antitrust problems of their own. Nobody thinks of IBM that way anymore. I've been watching Microsoft long enough to have developed the opinion that they are very likely to go that same route. It is worth remembering that the Microsoft empire was built on a very unusual series of historical events. They'll keep plugging away, and of course they have more money than God, but I don't see how they repeat their successes of the 1980s and '90s. Their star is falling, and Google's is rising -- a fact which does not necessarily give me great comfort.
  • Reply 69 of 80
    oc4theooc4theo Posts: 294member
    MSFT will surely see its own demise. Just like Polaroid, RCA and GM, the monopolistic arrogance that is Microsoft will die one day, no matter how long that will take.



    MSFT is a company that invents nothing, innovates little and copies a lot from others to stay in business. That is their foundation and it is their business plan. The company is a dinosaur that is nearing extinction. And the sooner, the better!



    The stock has not gained a dime in 5 years. Why buy the stock or even hold it?
  • Reply 70 of 80
    timgriff84timgriff84 Posts: 912member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


    I disagree. Mobile OS's will knock MS off the throne pretty darn rapidly IMO. By rapidly I mean the next 4 or 5 years.

    There is not much they can do about it, it is written.



    Ya recon? The enterprise Market won't even upgrade browsers because of the cost. You revon there all going to change there whole os and get all there custom software re-written to web apps! A style of app that on one hand is cheap to distribute but on the other has the most security issues.



    I think it's great that in the same day I can read an article on how windows 7 has already sold more in ore releases than vista did in it's first 17 weeks and this guy says to sell stock
  • Reply 71 of 80
    mactelmactel Posts: 1,275member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Did you miss the part where it was some guy from Microsoft making this claim? Kind of deletes the word "news" from the thing.



    No I did not.



    Did Apple come out and deny the Microsoft guy's statement? I sure must have missed that if they did.
  • Reply 72 of 80
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    No I did not.



    Did Apple come out and deny the Microsoft guy's statement? I sure must have missed that if they did.



    Apple doesn't make a practice of responding to rumors, and I'd be shocked if they responded to this one in any way, shape or form. The point is, it's not "news."
  • Reply 73 of 80
    ouraganouragan Posts: 437member
    Quote:

    The researcher is careful not to paint too dire a picture and insists that Microsoft should still be a very large contender if the prediction bears out. All the same, he maintains that much of the stock market has taken threats to Microsoft too lightly and that the company could see a slow, steady decline without a clear sign that it's learned its lesson.



    "We believe that the [market] trend is not in the company?s favor and that many quarters of ebbing tide lay ahead," he said.





    A few things to outline about Microsoft's stock:



    1- Microsoft can't be all things to everyone: it's enough that Microsoft be good and the prevailing OS (90%+) on computer desktops, web servers and portable computers. So, it's not really the OS for cell phones, embedded systems and cars. O.K., we can live with that, as monopolies are not good for innovation, prices or service;



    2- Microsoft Windows and Office sales are impacted by the world recession and closely tied to the renewal of computers by companies which have now reduced their information technology budgets in an attempt to cope with reduced sales, profits and manpower, but everything will come back to normal as the world comes out of the current recession;



    3- Stock analysts don't really know what they are talking about, as they can't predict anything and seldom analyse;



    4- Microsoft is the largest Mac software developper outside of Apple;



    5- Microsoft and Google are software companies which do not compete with Apple which is a hardware company refusing to license its OS systems, iLife and iWork software for sale and installation on computer hardware or cell phones not made by Apple.





    As usual, this "stock analyst" dire predictions are just a tempest in a tea pot.





  • Reply 74 of 80
    aitzaitz Posts: 1member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    Did you miss the news that Apple told MS to stop their laptop hunter commercials because Apple lowered prices on their laptops? Seems to me that means they care about marketshare and that was a pretty reactionary move. All the while they added features.



    There's a little thing called buying in bulk. The more product Apple ships the more they can demand better bulk rate component prices. We see that with the iPod and iPhone lines with Apple making long-term component deals with the likes of Samsung and at other times switching component manufacturers completely. Marketshare matters because it drives prices down. Lower prices on quality goods drives marketshare. If it ain't quality no body will buy at the lowered prices at least en masse.



    The Mac Mini is $100 too expensive. The Mac Pro is several hundred too expensive and the iMac is long-in-the-tooth - meaning the price should have come way down by now. Is it any wonder that Mac desktop sales are lower than notebook sales. Believe it or not many people still prefer the desktop computer. It is just that manufacturers are focusing on the higher margin notebooks and netbooks.



    Microsoft should do a desktop hunter series of ads as well and force Apple's hand there as well. You watch, if MS does do that Apple will have a reactionary move there as well.







    This whole story is hearsay concerning a comment by a MS official. This then becomes treated as and acted upon as if it is fact. FAIL!
  • Reply 75 of 80
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ouragan View Post


    As usual, this "stock analyst" dire predictions are just a tempest in a tea pot.



    Note that the word "dire" was not used by the analyst but by the writer of the article. The analyst was looking at Microsoft's opportunities for growth, which he found to be limited for specific, stated reasons.
  • Reply 76 of 80
    ipeonipeon Posts: 1,122member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    Did you miss the news that Apple told MS to stop their laptop hunter commercials because Apple lowered prices on their laptops?



    Just because a MS exec claims Apple did, doesn't make it so. Given MS's track record for truth... You get the idea.
  • Reply 77 of 80
    mactelmactel Posts: 1,275member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iPeon View Post


    Just because a MS exec claims Apple did, doesn't make it so. Given MS's track record for truth... You get the idea.



    What track record? People and companies get sued for making stuff up about what other people did or did not. That is different that commenting on a product or strategy.



    Why would MS have to make that up? It makes complete sense that Apple's legal department would seek to correct inaccuracies especially when Apple is called out in Microsoft's commercials. That does not mean Apple is threatened by Microsoft's ads. Apple has high enough margins to take their product prices down a few more notches.
  • Reply 78 of 80
    le studiosle studios Posts: 199member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Which is why MS will be around a long time.



    Yeah right. In my opinion Google is going low and Apple is taking high! Think about most have stated that businesses is what Microsoft is clinging on the most but with the advancement of Snow Leopard that may sway more business into investing into Apple hardware and software. It will take time but eventually that's what it will boil down to can the ends justified the means. Microsoft is trying to get everyone to upgrade to Windows 7 but if you look close it is like the other version with the same common base programming that what can be a weakness is viral infections. It seems Microsoft truly didn't innovate by making a New OS from scratch it just did patch upgrade method. People are really getting duped because they still prone to the usually virus and malware attacks and data loss. Honestly that is so much common experience with Windows. Always seem to lose something. Contrasting to that is Apple's Leopard and Snow Leopard with Time Machine to say the least. This is what got some curious of Apple reliability because of their experiences with the iPhone when changing from iPhone to iPhone 3G and then to iPhone 3GS by backup and restore. People in generally want more reliability and Apple prove that which may justified the cost for most. If Google come close to this then yes Microsoft has potential to lose market-share but the heavy damage have to be from contracts from businesses, education, government and military on the planet. Its not impossible but possible. I imagine that some will get frustrated and make the switch, but once again it will take time.
  • Reply 79 of 80
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacTel View Post


    People and companies get sued for making stuff up about what other people did or did not.



    Very rarely.



    Quote:

    Why would MS have to make that up? It makes complete sense that Apple's legal department would seek to correct inaccuracies especially when Apple is called out in Microsoft's commercials. That does not mean Apple is threatened by Microsoft's ads. Apple has high enough margins to take their product prices down a few more notches.



    Because they want to make their ad campaign look like a success? Yes, it could have happened -- but I would never take the word of someone at Microsoft that it went down like he said it did. Most companies have little in the way of scruples, and Microsoft has even less than most.



    As has been stated many times in this thread, if Apple really wanted Microsoft to cease and desist from making misleading claims, then they'd put it in writing.
  • Reply 80 of 80
    Ebbing ... and they'll be washed out to sea with the rest of the flotsam.
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