It won't happen. Because such machines have no market.
Hint: OQO, Sony Vaio P, etc.
C.
I disagree with those who say there's no market for a tablet. And I mean a tablet, not a "tablet PC" with a swivel screen. I always felt that those were accidents waiting to happen -- the hinge/pivot point is a glaring weak point. An actual tablet on the other hand could be of great use to those who have a 1/2 hour or more daily commute on a public transit system. Laptops are fine for cross-country or international flights, but I would never risk opening my laptop on a local bus or train. Nor would I want to read an e-book on a tiny iPhone screen for an hour. iPhones are great for chatting or e-mail, or browsing a few web pages, but I wouldn't want to spend an hour reading on an iPhone. On the other hand a tablet would be perfectly suited for a daily commute. The hour could be spent reading the local paper downloaded in the morning, reading an e-book, watching part of a movie, composing or reading e-mails, working on a spreadsheet or report for work, etc.
Sorry, I was a little repetitive, but I'm too lazy to go back and revise. \
Man, I can't wait to buy a Tablet just so I can buy some Apple iTunes Cocktails-- NOT!!
I want a fully functional device or fugettaboudet!
if by fully functional you mean you can run things like office on it, then what you want is a Macbook.
i feel pretty confidant that this is not going to be just the Apple Kindle. but it will not be a full laptop either. The whole "giant ipod touch" model seems the one that makes the most sense. this will likely be Apple's answer to the netbook and as a real netbook, not a full notebook shoved into a 10 inch package.
however, if Apple is going to go out and risk leaks by courting all these companies they should just go ahead and announce that yes they are making it.
Considering the whole paper media eco-system is shirking year over year, just this week the who publishing industry announce their subscription rates dropped by almost 10% from last year tells me either Apple is on to something to provide an product that allows interactive media which might breath new life into the publishing industry, or the making a product which going after an industry which will not survey and people have found that reading is no longer enjoyable past time or they get their information from other sources like TV with it 24hours of news and entertainment.
However, if publishing industry is hurting this much they will be hard pressed to hold out against Apple since and make their own online stores for you to subscribe too. You know a few publisher will sign on with apple and see success and the others will come running since they are hurting already and they will do anything at that point to try and survey.
If this thing is really all about being an e-reader, I'm prepared for a big letdown. I just don't see a big iPhone that you can read books on (but can't put in your pocket) being a huge seller (especially if its expensive). E-readers are a niche market. One that everyone seems to be scrambling to cater to lately, even though only a small minority of people are asking for it.
If this thing really does run a new version of the iPhone OS, instead of full OS X, I suppose they will make a new category of apps in the app store for it and allow it to run the iPhone apps in some sort of capacity. For this thing to sell like gangbusters, I think it needs to have more than an e-reader as it's killer app. In other-words, I think it needs to be more than a big iPhone with an e-reader to be compelling to the mainstream market. Maybe way more advanced apps (iLife suite or something)? I also don't see how to convince the mainstream market to pay for yet ANOTHER 3G data plan for a device that would require a bag to bring along with you.
At any rate, it will be interesting to see what they have in store.
if by fully functional you mean you can run things like office on it, then what you want is a Macbook.
i feel pretty confidant that this is not going to be just the Apple Kindle. but it will not be a full laptop either. The whole "giant ipod touch" model seems the one that makes the most sense. this will likely be Apple's answer to the netbook and as a real netbook, not a full notebook shoved into a 10 inch package.
however, if Apple is going to go out and risk leaks by courting all these companies they should just go ahead and announce that yes they are making it.
It sounds like Apple is exploring how this could work before deciding if they in fact will make the device. Also, they have to firm up details before they can announce anything. You can't announce you're working on something but declare that you can't give out any details. Perhaps in January we'll get an announcement, even if the product isn't ready to ship at that point.
... but I wouldn't want to spend an hour reading on an iPhone.
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
I could be wrong, but I don't think an Apple tablet will be marketed as just an e-reader/media player. There's some market for that, sure, but I think most people want to be able to do more with their computing devices than watch movies and read books, and the iPhone and App Store have set a bar for Apple that a larger device needs to surpass in functionality, especially since it loses the advantage of portability.
I think it's also obvious that iPhone apps, in their current form, won't work well on a relatively large tablet device. Nor, probably would Mac OS X apps (although, I think there are things, transparent to the developer, that could be done to make them work better), and, as someone pointed out previously, it's not going to be a big enough screen that it would be all that useful to have multiple apps open at the same time, except to facilitate better task switching.
All that being said, I think it adds up to the tablet running a separate OS with a separate SDK (there could be significant overlap in SDKs) and that what we know about what it may do is very fragmentary, at best. It will probably support e-reading, various media, news (as now rumored), etc. It may even support telephony via a BT headset and Voice Control. It will certainly provide a better Web experience than the iPhone. Large battery with good battery life (since most of the other components won't be much bigger than in the iPhone, there will be plenty of room for battery).
But, I still don't think that adds up to a very compelling experience, and it has to offer something distinct from MB(P) + iPhone, otherwise, why would you carry this around with compromised functionality and protability when so many people already have notebooks and smartphones? What I think it does add up to is that, if Apple brings this to market, and it looks more and more like they will, there will be something about it that is still utterly unknown that makes it something that people have to have.
It's sound like tons of fun ... I truly would like it to be within the $500 to $600 price range in Canadian dollars and that would be for the fully optioned version
I want it to be waterproof, indestructible and light as a feather.
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
I use the BEAM IT DOWN app, which has the Obama teleprompter which scrolls by tilt motion detection- very helpful. Currently re-reading Dracula.
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
Afeter using an eink reader I can't read in the iPhone.
I agree. While I am an advocate of Apple design, I think that consumers have no widespread experience or acceptance of this class of device. I don't think an Apple tablet would be popular or very profitable for several years--I suspect that it would be akin to the Apple TV or the Newton, which was ahead of its time.
Note the date and time you said this
I suspect this is not ahead of its time simply because the iPhone has already doe the paradigm shifting. I think the consumers will eat this up.
I realize that. But it doesn't matter. Does Phil think the planet is stupid and we're actually NOT expecting the Apple tablet? Because that is what we will be comparing that dell netbook to.
If true, do you think it will have an SDK at launch for developers or will Apple just work out the kinks with the default apps?
iPhone OS itself supports resizing from the ground up. Apple may produce an SDK addition with options for restricting an app's distribution (much like being able to force a user to have a microphone, or bluetooth, or other hardware traits is already done on the App Store) but the fact is that 99% of support required for apps that size running iPhone OS is already included in the SDK.
People believe that iPhone OS is very limited, but structurally the SDK is quite strong and just as capable as Mac OS X. It just hasn't been pushed to it's limits due to the underpowered devices it's installed on.
Apple will probably release a new SDK for the device with iPhone OS, and people can opt into "tablet only, iPhone and iPod Touch only, or both" with apps built on earlier SDK's forced to iPhone and iPod Touch only due to compatibilities that will require testing by developers.
Btw, I'm a developer with 3 years on Mac OS X and almost 2 years of iPhone OS development under my belt. Just letting you know my experiences of Apple introducing new hardware for iPhone OS and how the SDKs are designed to handle it.
I have to come down on the side of the "fully functional" group.....
An iphone / ipod touch ebook reader with a bigger screen is just not worth it. I can do most of what I need a phone to do on my phone and I can carry that in my pocket. Yes a bigger screen would be nice but that would limit portability. I want a device that is more for vertical markets. Something that I and others can use as a tool. I am thinking a small clipboard type device, sure it can do all those other things but it can also run 'real' applications. Something a doctor could use for charting, a foreman could use for tracking progress, an artist could use for sketching etc. Sure if they want to do two devices so there will be one that is cheap and one that is more functional I could live with that, but that is seldom Apples way. A device that does what a low power laptop with cell modem does but without the keyboard and track pad so it can be used while standing and moving around. That is the biggest problem of the current full function devices, that and the related lack of a touch screen. the device needs to be instant on, let me make a note or check some boxes and then be back in standby as I move on with life.
I admit this sort of thing might be hard to do without a stylus type input model, and Apple has poo-pooed that before too but I don't see it as a problem. Refine your touch tech so for many things a finger will do the job, include a clever way to hide and carry the stylus for when it is needed and get do the best you can with either hand writing recognition or just store it graphically and deal with it later as needed on a more powerful machine.
This market is smaller in some sense than the general public, but it is probably more profitable than a giant, bulky iphone book reader, movie watcher, but the same form factor and basic tech would probably suffice for both.
What I want to know is, who exactly is describing the Apple tablet as a "larger iPhone" -- the rumor mongers, or someone who has actually seen/touched/used one? Does anyone seriously believe that Apple would have taken this long to develop and release this product if it was simply a scaled-up version of the iPhone? They could have done that last year. Get real! Apple is obviously sweating bullets over this product and Steve has probably crushed dozens of prototypes under his heal. If it isn't a lot of things that nobody ever expected, it will be a big disappointment.
I agree. While I am an advocate of Apple design, I think that consumers have no widespread experience or acceptance of this class of device. I don't think an Apple tablet would be popular or very profitable for several years--I suspect that it would be akin to the Apple TV or the Newton, which was ahead of its time.
Dissenting view:
There's now quite a bit of consumer experience with and exposure to e-readers such as the Kindle, the Sony products, the recently announced Nook and several others. The Kindle also provides some access to newspapers and other publications than books. Yes, these devices have relatively small, although growing, market penetration at this point. But the major problem with all the e-readers isn't that they're unknown, it's that they're simply not very good. Monochrome displays, unattractive designs, clunky hardware, dubious user interfaces, incompatible content/hardware ecosystems, all of those things make today's e-readers intriguing in concept but limit their target market in real life. And at $250 and up, the buyer needs to be pretty motivated to buy one.
The proper comparison isn't to the Newton or other early PDA devices, where the concept was indeed well ahead of the hardware capabilities of the time. No - instead think about personal MP3 players. Apple didn't by any means invent the MP3 player with its iPod. What they did was bring out the first MP3 player that was irresistible.
This came from a confluence of several factors: the newly available 1.8" hard drives for ample capacity (yes, 5GB seems tiny today, but it wasn't in 2001), Apple's legendary design skills that resulted in a highly attractive product, the clean and innovative user interface, and last and by no means least, the convenient iTunes Music Store and its DRM protected content that addressed both user needs and music company fears. Could somebody else have done all that? Maybe, just possibly — but they didn't.
I argue that the projected Apple tablet device is at a comparable point in history. Electronic access to news, books and magazines is on the rise, while the traditional paper versions find themselves in crisis. Specialized electronic devices (i.e. other than computers) to access published material have existed for some time, but they're simply not compelling. Narrow focus electronic book readers are too limited in scope to to justify their cost to all but the most motivated audience.
All this says to me that the door is open for someone like Apple to replicate what they did with the iPod in 2001 (and more recently with the iPhone). In today's terms that will mean much the same as back then: superior hardware, software, interface and appearance, backed by a robust ecosystem to deliver content, and all integrated in clever ways. Apple has, probably better than any other company, the ability to deliver on those things. By comparison Amazon has done a decent job with the back-end, but is weak at everything else.
The projected Apple tablet seems likely to cost at least three times as much as today's e-readers, i.e. perhaps $800 vs. $250. Obviously to justify that it both has to do more and do it better. For those to whom this seems like a stretch, let me remind you that the original 5GB iPod, introduced on 23rd October 2001, was priced at $399. That's about $480 in 2009 dollars. People said Apple was nuts.
Comments
It won't happen. Because such machines have no market.
Hint: OQO, Sony Vaio P, etc.
C.
I disagree with those who say there's no market for a tablet. And I mean a tablet, not a "tablet PC" with a swivel screen. I always felt that those were accidents waiting to happen -- the hinge/pivot point is a glaring weak point. An actual tablet on the other hand could be of great use to those who have a 1/2 hour or more daily commute on a public transit system. Laptops are fine for cross-country or international flights, but I would never risk opening my laptop on a local bus or train. Nor would I want to read an e-book on a tiny iPhone screen for an hour. iPhones are great for chatting or e-mail, or browsing a few web pages, but I wouldn't want to spend an hour reading on an iPhone. On the other hand a tablet would be perfectly suited for a daily commute. The hour could be spent reading the local paper downloaded in the morning, reading an e-book, watching part of a movie, composing or reading e-mails, working on a spreadsheet or report for work, etc.
Sorry, I was a little repetitive, but I'm too lazy to go back and revise.
Man, I can't wait to buy a Tablet just so I can buy some Apple iTunes Cocktails-- NOT!!
I want a fully functional device or fugettaboudet!
if by fully functional you mean you can run things like office on it, then what you want is a Macbook.
i feel pretty confidant that this is not going to be just the Apple Kindle. but it will not be a full laptop either. The whole "giant ipod touch" model seems the one that makes the most sense. this will likely be Apple's answer to the netbook and as a real netbook, not a full notebook shoved into a 10 inch package.
however, if Apple is going to go out and risk leaks by courting all these companies they should just go ahead and announce that yes they are making it.
Considering the whole paper media eco-system is shirking year over year, just this week the who publishing industry announce their subscription rates dropped by almost 10% from last year tells me either Apple is on to something to provide an product that allows interactive media which might breath new life into the publishing industry, or the making a product which going after an industry which will not survey and people have found that reading is no longer enjoyable past time or they get their information from other sources like TV with it 24hours of news and entertainment.
However, if publishing industry is hurting this much they will be hard pressed to hold out against Apple since and make their own online stores for you to subscribe too. You know a few publisher will sign on with apple and see success and the others will come running since they are hurting already and they will do anything at that point to try and survey.
I think you're onto something there Maestro.
If this thing is really all about being an e-reader, I'm prepared for a big letdown. I just don't see a big iPhone that you can read books on (but can't put in your pocket) being a huge seller (especially if its expensive). E-readers are a niche market. One that everyone seems to be scrambling to cater to lately, even though only a small minority of people are asking for it.
If this thing really does run a new version of the iPhone OS, instead of full OS X, I suppose they will make a new category of apps in the app store for it and allow it to run the iPhone apps in some sort of capacity. For this thing to sell like gangbusters, I think it needs to have more than an e-reader as it's killer app. In other-words, I think it needs to be more than a big iPhone with an e-reader to be compelling to the mainstream market. Maybe way more advanced apps (iLife suite or something)? I also don't see how to convince the mainstream market to pay for yet ANOTHER 3G data plan for a device that would require a bag to bring along with you.
At any rate, it will be interesting to see what they have in store.
iMovie on a device like this?
Good luck with that.
if by fully functional you mean you can run things like office on it, then what you want is a Macbook.
i feel pretty confidant that this is not going to be just the Apple Kindle. but it will not be a full laptop either. The whole "giant ipod touch" model seems the one that makes the most sense. this will likely be Apple's answer to the netbook and as a real netbook, not a full notebook shoved into a 10 inch package.
however, if Apple is going to go out and risk leaks by courting all these companies they should just go ahead and announce that yes they are making it.
It sounds like Apple is exploring how this could work before deciding if they in fact will make the device. Also, they have to firm up details before they can announce anything. You can't announce you're working on something but declare that you can't give out any details. Perhaps in January we'll get an announcement, even if the product isn't ready to ship at that point.
... but I wouldn't want to spend an hour reading on an iPhone.
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
I could be wrong, but I don't think an Apple tablet will be marketed as just an e-reader/media player. There's some market for that, sure, but I think most people want to be able to do more with their computing devices than watch movies and read books, and the iPhone and App Store have set a bar for Apple that a larger device needs to surpass in functionality, especially since it loses the advantage of portability.
I think it's also obvious that iPhone apps, in their current form, won't work well on a relatively large tablet device. Nor, probably would Mac OS X apps (although, I think there are things, transparent to the developer, that could be done to make them work better), and, as someone pointed out previously, it's not going to be a big enough screen that it would be all that useful to have multiple apps open at the same time, except to facilitate better task switching.
All that being said, I think it adds up to the tablet running a separate OS with a separate SDK (there could be significant overlap in SDKs) and that what we know about what it may do is very fragmentary, at best. It will probably support e-reading, various media, news (as now rumored), etc. It may even support telephony via a BT headset and Voice Control. It will certainly provide a better Web experience than the iPhone. Large battery with good battery life (since most of the other components won't be much bigger than in the iPhone, there will be plenty of room for battery).
But, I still don't think that adds up to a very compelling experience, and it has to offer something distinct from MB(P) + iPhone, otherwise, why would you carry this around with compromised functionality and protability when so many people already have notebooks and smartphones? What I think it does add up to is that, if Apple brings this to market, and it looks more and more like they will, there will be something about it that is still utterly unknown that makes it something that people have to have.
It's sound like tons of fun ... I truly would like it to be within the $500 to $600 price range in Canadian dollars and that would be for the fully optioned version
I want it to be waterproof, indestructible and light as a feather.
And I don't think a tablet has so much potential market, they're the opposite of ergonomy.
Edit: dislèxia digital
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
I use the BEAM IT DOWN app, which has the Obama teleprompter which scrolls by tilt motion detection- very helpful. Currently re-reading Dracula.
I do this on a regular basis, using the Stanza iPhone app, and it's really not bad at all. Once you get involved in your reading, you don't even notice the size of the page. That being said, a larger screen would probably provide a better experience.
Afeter using an eink reader I can't read in the iPhone.
I agree. While I am an advocate of Apple design, I think that consumers have no widespread experience or acceptance of this class of device. I don't think an Apple tablet would be popular or very profitable for several years--I suspect that it would be akin to the Apple TV or the Newton, which was ahead of its time.
Note the date and time you said this
I suspect this is not ahead of its time simply because the iPhone has already doe the paradigm shifting. I think the consumers will eat this up.
I want it to be waterproof, indestructible and light as a feather.
I hear if you turn it upside down and shake the screen clears ...
Note the date and time you said this
I suspect this is not ahead of its time simply because the iPhone has already doe the paradigm shifting. I think the consumers will eat this up.
Nop, a 3,5" touch screen is totally different than a 10" touch screen.
He was referring to the iPhone. It fits.
I realize that. But it doesn't matter. Does Phil think the planet is stupid and we're actually NOT expecting the Apple tablet? Because that is what we will be comparing that dell netbook to.
Nop, a 3,5" touch screen is totally different than a 10" touch screen.
yep, it's bigger
If true, do you think it will have an SDK at launch for developers or will Apple just work out the kinks with the default apps?
iPhone OS itself supports resizing from the ground up. Apple may produce an SDK addition with options for restricting an app's distribution (much like being able to force a user to have a microphone, or bluetooth, or other hardware traits is already done on the App Store) but the fact is that 99% of support required for apps that size running iPhone OS is already included in the SDK.
People believe that iPhone OS is very limited, but structurally the SDK is quite strong and just as capable as Mac OS X. It just hasn't been pushed to it's limits due to the underpowered devices it's installed on.
Apple will probably release a new SDK for the device with iPhone OS, and people can opt into "tablet only, iPhone and iPod Touch only, or both" with apps built on earlier SDK's forced to iPhone and iPod Touch only due to compatibilities that will require testing by developers.
Btw, I'm a developer with 3 years on Mac OS X and almost 2 years of iPhone OS development under my belt. Just letting you know my experiences of Apple introducing new hardware for iPhone OS and how the SDKs are designed to handle it.
An iphone / ipod touch ebook reader with a bigger screen is just not worth it. I can do most of what I need a phone to do on my phone and I can carry that in my pocket. Yes a bigger screen would be nice but that would limit portability. I want a device that is more for vertical markets. Something that I and others can use as a tool. I am thinking a small clipboard type device, sure it can do all those other things but it can also run 'real' applications. Something a doctor could use for charting, a foreman could use for tracking progress, an artist could use for sketching etc. Sure if they want to do two devices so there will be one that is cheap and one that is more functional I could live with that, but that is seldom Apples way. A device that does what a low power laptop with cell modem does but without the keyboard and track pad so it can be used while standing and moving around. That is the biggest problem of the current full function devices, that and the related lack of a touch screen. the device needs to be instant on, let me make a note or check some boxes and then be back in standby as I move on with life.
I admit this sort of thing might be hard to do without a stylus type input model, and Apple has poo-pooed that before too but I don't see it as a problem. Refine your touch tech so for many things a finger will do the job, include a clever way to hide and carry the stylus for when it is needed and get do the best you can with either hand writing recognition or just store it graphically and deal with it later as needed on a more powerful machine.
This market is smaller in some sense than the general public, but it is probably more profitable than a giant, bulky iphone book reader, movie watcher, but the same form factor and basic tech would probably suffice for both.
Afeter using an eink reader I can't read in the iPhone.
Then don't!
I agree. While I am an advocate of Apple design, I think that consumers have no widespread experience or acceptance of this class of device. I don't think an Apple tablet would be popular or very profitable for several years--I suspect that it would be akin to the Apple TV or the Newton, which was ahead of its time.
Dissenting view:
There's now quite a bit of consumer experience with and exposure to e-readers such as the Kindle, the Sony products, the recently announced Nook and several others. The Kindle also provides some access to newspapers and other publications than books. Yes, these devices have relatively small, although growing, market penetration at this point. But the major problem with all the e-readers isn't that they're unknown, it's that they're simply not very good. Monochrome displays, unattractive designs, clunky hardware, dubious user interfaces, incompatible content/hardware ecosystems, all of those things make today's e-readers intriguing in concept but limit their target market in real life. And at $250 and up, the buyer needs to be pretty motivated to buy one.
The proper comparison isn't to the Newton or other early PDA devices, where the concept was indeed well ahead of the hardware capabilities of the time. No - instead think about personal MP3 players. Apple didn't by any means invent the MP3 player with its iPod. What they did was bring out the first MP3 player that was irresistible.
This came from a confluence of several factors: the newly available 1.8" hard drives for ample capacity (yes, 5GB seems tiny today, but it wasn't in 2001), Apple's legendary design skills that resulted in a highly attractive product, the clean and innovative user interface, and last and by no means least, the convenient iTunes Music Store and its DRM protected content that addressed both user needs and music company fears. Could somebody else have done all that? Maybe, just possibly — but they didn't.
I argue that the projected Apple tablet device is at a comparable point in history. Electronic access to news, books and magazines is on the rise, while the traditional paper versions find themselves in crisis. Specialized electronic devices (i.e. other than computers) to access published material have existed for some time, but they're simply not compelling. Narrow focus electronic book readers are too limited in scope to to justify their cost to all but the most motivated audience.
All this says to me that the door is open for someone like Apple to replicate what they did with the iPod in 2001 (and more recently with the iPhone). In today's terms that will mean much the same as back then: superior hardware, software, interface and appearance, backed by a robust ecosystem to deliver content, and all integrated in clever ways. Apple has, probably better than any other company, the ability to deliver on those things. By comparison Amazon has done a decent job with the back-end, but is weak at everything else.
The projected Apple tablet seems likely to cost at least three times as much as today's e-readers, i.e. perhaps $800 vs. $250. Obviously to justify that it both has to do more and do it better. For those to whom this seems like a stretch, let me remind you that the original 5GB iPod, introduced on 23rd October 2001, was priced at $399. That's about $480 in 2009 dollars. People said Apple was nuts.
It's going to be interesting...