Antiquated rhetoric! What millennium are these statistics and assessments from, and from where did you copy them? What about GSM being able to support simultaneous voice + data?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544
Advantages of CDMA include:
Increased cellular communications security.
Simultaneous conversations.
Increased efficiency, meaning that the carrier can serve more subscribers.
Smaller phones.
Low power requirements and little cell-to-cell coordination needed by operators.
Extended reach - beneficial to rural users situated far from cells.
Disadvantages of CDMA include:
Due to its proprietary nature, all of CDMA's flaws are not known to the engineering community.
CDMA is relatively new, and the network is not as mature as GSM.
CDMA cannot offer international roaming, a large GSM advantage.
The Euro-Asian Alternative: GSM
Analysts consider Qualcomm's major competitive disadvantage to be its lack of access to the European market now controlled by Global System for Mobile communications (GSM). The wireless world is now divided into GSM (much of Western Europe) and CDMA (North America and parts of Asia).
Bad timing may have prevented the evolution of one, single global wireless standard. Just two years before CDMA's 1995 introduction in Hong Kong, European carriers and manufacturers chose to support the first available digital technology - Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA). GSM uses TDMA as its core technology. Therefore, since the majority of wireless users are in Europe and Asia, GSM has taken the worldwide lead as the technology of choice.
Mobile Handset manufacturers ultimately split into two camps, as Motorola, Lucent, and Nextel chose CDMA, and Nokia and Ericsson eventually pushed these companies out and became the dominant GSM players.
Advantages of GSM:
GSM is already used worldwide with over 450 million subscribers.
International roaming permits subscribers to use one phone throughout Western Europe. CDMA will work in Asia, but not France, Germany, the U.K. and other popular European destinations.
GSM is mature, having started in the mid-80s. This maturity means a more stable network with robust features. CDMA is still building its network.
GSM's maturity means engineers cut their teeth on the technology, creating an unconscious preference.
The availability of Subscriber Identity Modules, which are smart cards that provide secure data encryption give GSM m-commerce advantages.
In brief, GSM is a "more elegant way to upgrade to 3G," says Strategis Group senior wireless analyst Adam Guy.
Disadvantages of GSM:
Lack of access to burgeoning American market.
Today, the battle between CDMA and GSM is muddled. Where at one point Europe clearly favored GSM and North America, CDMA, the distinct advantage of one over the other has blurred as major carriers like AT&T Wireless begin to support GSM, and recent trials even showed compatibility between the two technologies.
GSM still holds the upper hand however. There's the numerical advantage for one thing: 456 million GSM users versus CDMA's 82 million.
iPad/iPhone running on verizon network rumors are the new Macs running on Intel hardware rumors.
I'm sure Apple is concurrently developing hardware for the Verizon network but just hasn't released it yet for whatever reason. Probably cause Verizon is too arrogant. You can't have two arrogant people in a marriage.
AppleInsider seems to be the first gateway for these BS rumors from Verizon.
The consistency of these "rumors" (almost) suggests some kind of revenue path for BS whisper-marketing (similar to astroturfing). If AppleInsider is actively throwing these out in a stock-manipulation play, they're playing very very dangerous games with the SEC. What time was this "rumor" posted? What times were the other "rumors" posted?
I'll bet it was consistently before the closing Bell on the day of trade.
I never recall seeing these things come up on a Saturday or Sunday that's for sure. If I was running this site - I'd put some pretty massive up-front disclaimers on these. Like in the first line - "while no Verizon announcements to-date pertaining to Apple have proved true - as in ever,..."
Increased efficiency, meaning that the carrier can serve more subscribers.
Smaller phones.
Low power requirements and little cell-to-cell coordination needed by operators.
Extended reach - beneficial to rural users situated far from cells.
Disadvantages of CDMA include:
Due to its proprietary nature, all of CDMA's flaws are not known to the engineering community.
CDMA is relatively new, and the network is not as mature as GSM.
CDMA cannot offer international roaming, a large GSM advantage.
The Euro-Asian Alternative: GSM
Analysts consider Qualcomm's major competitive disadvantage to be its lack of access to the European market now controlled by Global System for Mobile communications (GSM). The wireless world is now divided into GSM (much of Western Europe) and CDMA (North America and parts of Asia).
Bad timing may have prevented the evolution of one, single global wireless standard. Just two years before CDMA's 1995 introduction in Hong Kong, European carriers and manufacturers chose to support the first available digital technology - Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA). GSM uses TDMA as its core technology. Therefore, since the majority of wireless users are in Europe and Asia, GSM has taken the worldwide lead as the technology of choice.
Mobile Handset manufacturers ultimately split into two camps, as Motorola, Lucent, and Nextel chose CDMA, and Nokia and Ericsson eventually pushed these companies out and became the dominant GSM players.
Advantages of GSM:
GSM is already used worldwide with over 450 million subscribers.
International roaming permits subscribers to use one phone throughout Western Europe. CDMA will work in Asia, but not France, Germany, the U.K. and other popular European destinations.
GSM is mature, having started in the mid-80s. This maturity means a more stable network with robust features. CDMA is still building its network.
GSM's maturity means engineers cut their teeth on the technology, creating an unconscious preference.
The availability of Subscriber Identity Modules, which are smart cards that provide secure data encryption give GSM m-commerce advantages.
In brief, GSM is a "more elegant way to upgrade to 3G," says Strategis Group senior wireless analyst Adam Guy.
Disadvantages of GSM:
Lack of access to burgeoning American market.
Today, the battle between CDMA and GSM is muddled. Where at one point Europe clearly favored GSM and North America, CDMA, the distinct advantage of one over the other has blurred as major carriers like AT&T Wireless begin to support GSM, and recent trials even showed compatibility between the two technologies.
GSM still holds the upper hand however. There's the numerical advantage for one thing: 456 million GSM users versus CDMA's 82 million.
This is what I have been saying for years....We in the U.S. thinks everything has to be made just by our standards...Apple did the smartest thing by going the world route because its always been a mistake to think that we could have CDMA only market and everyone else would follow...why? the world is much bigger than just the U.S. Before I traveled overseas I remember asking Verizon many times at the time in 2004 they were like we can give you a loaner.......I was like a what? "no way..." If I have my own device I would like to keep it .....so when i got here in Asia I just purchased another phone and threw this one in the drawer where it still sits today...because its nothing more than a brick...This is sad because one day they will come to a world standard as they should have long ago....Im so glad this is happening because they were looking at me back then like why would I want a GSM device when the U.S. is CDMA dominate ........I wish I could talk to the same guys today.... I would love to bring it back up and see what they would say now....Most of the people who complain about CDMA dont travel outside the states very often....or they just dont understand...
The only thing that Steve Jobs said on Wednesday was that Apple had negotiated some "break through" prices with AT&T. Then he went on to point out that that iPad was an unlocked device.So based on that, I think that you can safely assume that any other US (or otherwise) GSM-based carrier can service the iPad as long as they use micro-SIMs.
The only thing that Steve Jobs said on Wednesday was that Apple had negotiated some "break through" prices with AT&T. Then he went on to point out that that iPad was an unlocked device.So based on that, I think that you can safely assume that any other US (or otherwise) GSM-based carrier can service the iPad as long as they use micro-SIMs.
So AT&T only? Come. On.
T-Mobile uses a strange, non-standard band for their 3G data; you will only get EDGE speeds with your iPhone or iPad on their network.
Yes, the iPad is unlocked, but that has no real-world impact in the USA.
Why would Apple spend the time and effort to do this, when Verizon is switching to a global standard next year?
Because it will take years for that new standard to be fully deployed and even once it is, CDMA won't be going away right away. Or do you expect every Verizon customer to instantly throw out their CDMA phones and switch to a new one? The transition will take at least as long as the expected lifetime of an iPad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco
Actually, I think Verizon should make a 3G hardware accessory (dongle) and app for the iPhone / Touch / iPad.
They do, sort of. Their mi-fi card. It's not a dongle, but it my opinion it's better because you don't have anything sticking out of your device, and it can support multiple devices simultaneously. And the new Palm Pre Plus and Palm Pixie Plus can share their 3G connections as well.
One thing for certain. Verizon nay-sayers can no longer use the reasoning that Apple wouldn't make a Verizon phone because it would fracture the manufacturing efficiency, cause inventory problems, or (my favorite) confuse sales staff. Apple obviously feels that making two different iPad lines won't suffer from these problems. And the iPad will likely sell in much lower volumes than the iPhone. So all of those reasons are invalid.
It comes down to technical, which is minor as proven time and time again by cell manufactures who make different phones for different networks; and business, much tougher to solve considering the two companies involved.
Well, dropping the Mac Mini and white MacBook prices by $250 each tomorrow would likely have that result too. Doesn't mean its anywhere near an Apple-minded decision.
Pray, tell us Oh Omniscient One, how you come to know of Apple's demand elasticities? They must be really stupid if they're not taking advantage of a quick and easy two hundred mil boost. The Apple shareholders meeting is coming up, I think I just might attend so I could nominate you to replace the obviously floundering Steve Jobs, eh?
Despite Apple last week introducing an AT&T-only 3G data plan for the iPad in the U.S., rumors continue to persist that the hardware maker will introduce a CDMA-capable model for the Verizon network.
Citing a source within Verizon, Silicon Alley Insider reported Monday that a CDMA-compatible iPad is "still in the works."
Introduced last week, the new iPad comes in a 3G-enabled version with a $130 price premium. The GSM-only version will offer no-contract data plans with AT&T, running $15 per month for 250MB of data, or $30 per month for unlimited access.
If the rumor proves accurate, a Verizon-compatible iPad would likely be an entirely new hardware version, rather than a "world mode" device. The 3G-capable AT&T iPad is scheduled to launch in three months.
In addition to Monday's anonymous tip, analysts Brian Marshall, with Broadpoint AmTech, and Ashok Kumar, with Northeast Securities, also said they still believe a Verizon iPad will arrive in the near future. Both incorrectly predicted that Apple would introduce a Verizon-capable iPad last week.
Last week, Apple executives made a clear effort to demonstrate they are happy with their partnership with AT&T. The company also aimed to downplay speculation that the iPhone would become available on multiple carriers in the U.S.
On a conference call following its quarterly earnings report, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said multi-carrier strategies are not the best option for every country.
"I don't want to imply that would happen in every market or that we are headed that way in every market," Cook said. He also specifically defended AT&T and said the nation's second-largest wireless carrier is working to alleviate coverage concerns across the country.
In the months of lead-up to the iPad announcement last week, numerous reports suggested Apple would introduce devices compatible with the networks of both AT&T and Verizon. Marshall went as far as to call Verizon compatibility "a certainty."
Contacted by Silicon Alley Insider, the analyst said he's "not 100 percent sure" what happened, but he believes a Verizon iPad is coming in the near-term, and a CDMA iPhone will arrive in the second half of 2010.
Analysts now believe a partnership with Verizon -- perhaps for both the iPhone and the iPad -- could be unveiled at the Worldwide Developers Conference this summer. A calendar listing for San Francisco's Moscone Center has led some to believe that WWDC 2010 could take place between June 28 and July 2.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available? Does Apple want some customers that would buy an iPhone today to wait until the Verizon version is available? That would be a HELL no. Apple has never announced replacement products before they are available. Why would they start now? These analysts and pundits clearly aren't very bright.
Also, I am pretty damn positive that Verizon will also support a version of the iPad at launch. However, if Apple announces a partnership today with Verizon there is ZERO upside but some possible downside as many would-be iPhone buyers today would assume a Verizon iPhone is coming soon and might wait. Bottom line - Apple will absolutely, definitely, unequivocally have an iPHone and the iPad on Verizon within the next 3-6 months but there is absolutely no good reason why they would announce it until the day it is available.
And when the iPhone goes to Verizon you can expect sales to more than double overnight. There will be even more migration from smaller carriers to Verizon than there were to AT&T and Verizon still has more subscribers than AT&T.
And anyone who doubts the iPad is not paying attention. Apple is positioning this device as THE mobile device for everyone on the planet. It can do a little (or a lot) of everything at a price point that provides a buying opportunity for damn near everyone from the lower middle class and up.
Hospitals, schools, consumers, retailers, and who the hell knows who else is going to use this device....The rumors that Apple plans to sell 10 million of these in year one is not surprising and seems very realistic to me. The iPad will become THE mobile device of this decade. Yes, it will cannibalize some iPod sales. Yes, I also think it will cannibalize some Mac sales (far more iPod than Mac) but it is going to grow the total number of devices Apple sells by a significant number and the ASP of all those devices will go up with the iPad as it cannibalizes sales from lower ASP products (on average).
Amazing that so few investors see this potential currently but it will be apparent fairly quickly after the iPad launches. Rest assured that Apple will announce sales figures unlike Amazon with the Kindle and people will be blown away by the numbers.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available?
While I agree with your reasoning here (regarding the pre-announce), and your overall assessment of the iPad, I'm not sure I can agree that Apple will go with Verizon, at least not in the near future. I must admit to being on the fence on this. It would not shock me if Apple were to sign on with Verizon this year, and I'm sure there would be plenty of upside for them if they did, but I'm really leaning against it happening until Verizon moves beyond CDMA.
I find it difficult to believe that Apple would want to mess with CDMA technology that is already known to be dead end. It's much cleaner for them to stick with the GSM, thereby simplifying their sku's, supply chain, and engineering efforts.
For those of you advocating iPad on Verizon, do you believe Verizon would agree to the same pricing and terms that AT&T has agreed to? I don't.
The whole Verizon/AT&T war isn't necessarily as much of an issue for iPad as well, because there is a WiFi only version. Verizon customers who want an iPad could go the WiFi only route, or possibly tether from their Verizon handset (not sure that it's feasible, but it might be). For that matter, since there is no contract requirement, they could buy a per month data package from AT&T as required. Granted that many Verizon customers might be loathe to do that as there seems to be a hugely adversarial disposition between customers of Verizon and AT&T, but for those people who have more important things to think about than which is more black, the kettle or the pot, there are options.
I find it difficult to believe that Apple would want to mess with CDMA technology that is already known to be dead end. It's much cleaner for them to stick with the GSM, thereby simplifying their sku's, supply chain, and engineering efforts.
It is about cost and benefit.
It costs only $5 million to design a CDMA variant, it doesn't raise inventory cost by a lot, it doesn't raise supply chain management cost by a lot....
It's all plug and play. You want to sell a CDMA chipset --- and if your customer uses MS-DOS on their cell phone design, then the chipset maker will port the wireless driver to MS-DOS. You want to sell a wireless chipset in the US, you better have a reference design that already got a FCC certification.
I don't get the whole dead end argument. Cell phones are a disposible item --- consumers don't care if Verizon shuts down their CDMA network in 5 years, if they are going to only hold on to their cell phone for just 2 years.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available? Does Apple want some customers that would buy an iPhone today to wait until the Verizon version is available?
No. They want customers that would buy a Droid today to wait until the Verizon iPhone is available (if the rumor is true...a very BIG IF).
It costs only $5 million to design a CDMA variant, it doesn't raise inventory cost by a lot, it doesn't raise supply chain management cost by a lot....
It's all plug and play. You want to sell a CDMA chipset --- and if your customer uses MS-DOS on their cell phone design, then the chipset maker will port the wireless driver to MS-DOS. You want to sell a wireless chipset in the US, you better have a reference design that already got a FCC certification.
I don't get the whole dead end argument. Cell phones are a disposible item --- consumers don't care if Verizon shuts down their CDMA network in 5 years, if they are going to only hold on to their cell phone for just 2 years.
I'm not sure where you get your $5M design cost, but no matter. I'm sure Apple can afford whatever it costs, and probably already have working CDMA models, just as a matter of course.
But where I'm not sure about your argument is the assertion of low costs of inventory and supply chain mgmt. It might actually be trickier than you think. I could envision, especially on the iPhone side, in the first 6-12 months of AT&T + Verizon availability, major problems predicting demand between the two skus with all of the churn that would likely happen. It could actually be a major headache to manage. That uncertainty might even extend beyond 12 months due to the existence of two year contracts. I could easily see a situation of too many GSM phones and not enough CDMA phones, or vice versa.
Apple would no doubt eventually dial it in, and they might be able to manage it well right out of the gate, but I frankly could envision a scenario where they struggle with it. The other thing to remember, Apple intentionally narrows their product focus in many aspects of their business. How many times have you read, "if Apple only made... they would sell bazillions of 'em"? Name your technology, mini towers for example. Apple seemingly leaves alot of sales on the table, but last time I checked, they were doing pretty well.
Comments
Advantages of CDMA include:
Increased cellular communications security.
Simultaneous conversations.
Increased efficiency, meaning that the carrier can serve more subscribers.
Smaller phones.
Low power requirements and little cell-to-cell coordination needed by operators.
Extended reach - beneficial to rural users situated far from cells.
Disadvantages of CDMA include:
Due to its proprietary nature, all of CDMA's flaws are not known to the engineering community.
CDMA is relatively new, and the network is not as mature as GSM.
CDMA cannot offer international roaming, a large GSM advantage.
The Euro-Asian Alternative: GSM
Analysts consider Qualcomm's major competitive disadvantage to be its lack of access to the European market now controlled by Global System for Mobile communications (GSM). The wireless world is now divided into GSM (much of Western Europe) and CDMA (North America and parts of Asia).
Bad timing may have prevented the evolution of one, single global wireless standard. Just two years before CDMA's 1995 introduction in Hong Kong, European carriers and manufacturers chose to support the first available digital technology - Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA). GSM uses TDMA as its core technology. Therefore, since the majority of wireless users are in Europe and Asia, GSM has taken the worldwide lead as the technology of choice.
Mobile Handset manufacturers ultimately split into two camps, as Motorola, Lucent, and Nextel chose CDMA, and Nokia and Ericsson eventually pushed these companies out and became the dominant GSM players.
Advantages of GSM:
GSM is already used worldwide with over 450 million subscribers.
International roaming permits subscribers to use one phone throughout Western Europe. CDMA will work in Asia, but not France, Germany, the U.K. and other popular European destinations.
GSM is mature, having started in the mid-80s. This maturity means a more stable network with robust features. CDMA is still building its network.
GSM's maturity means engineers cut their teeth on the technology, creating an unconscious preference.
The availability of Subscriber Identity Modules, which are smart cards that provide secure data encryption give GSM m-commerce advantages.
In brief, GSM is a "more elegant way to upgrade to 3G," says Strategis Group senior wireless analyst Adam Guy.
Disadvantages of GSM:
Lack of access to burgeoning American market.
Today, the battle between CDMA and GSM is muddled. Where at one point Europe clearly favored GSM and North America, CDMA, the distinct advantage of one over the other has blurred as major carriers like AT&T Wireless begin to support GSM, and recent trials even showed compatibility between the two technologies.
GSM still holds the upper hand however. There's the numerical advantage for one thing: 456 million GSM users versus CDMA's 82 million.
iPad/iPhone running on verizon network rumors are the new Macs running on Intel hardware rumors.
I'm sure Apple is concurrently developing hardware for the Verizon network but just hasn't released it yet for whatever reason. Probably cause Verizon is too arrogant. You can't have two arrogant people in a marriage.
Oh really ?
Oh really ?
Priceless.
The consistency of these "rumors" (almost) suggests some kind of revenue path for BS whisper-marketing (similar to astroturfing). If AppleInsider is actively throwing these out in a stock-manipulation play, they're playing very very dangerous games with the SEC. What time was this "rumor" posted? What times were the other "rumors" posted?
I'll bet it was consistently before the closing Bell on the day of trade.
I never recall seeing these things come up on a Saturday or Sunday that's for sure. If I was running this site - I'd put some pretty massive up-front disclaimers on these. Like in the first line - "while no Verizon announcements to-date pertaining to Apple have proved true - as in ever,..."
Advantages of CDMA include:
Increased cellular communications security.
Simultaneous conversations.
Increased efficiency, meaning that the carrier can serve more subscribers.
Smaller phones.
Low power requirements and little cell-to-cell coordination needed by operators.
Extended reach - beneficial to rural users situated far from cells.
Disadvantages of CDMA include:
Due to its proprietary nature, all of CDMA's flaws are not known to the engineering community.
CDMA is relatively new, and the network is not as mature as GSM.
CDMA cannot offer international roaming, a large GSM advantage.
The Euro-Asian Alternative: GSM
Analysts consider Qualcomm's major competitive disadvantage to be its lack of access to the European market now controlled by Global System for Mobile communications (GSM). The wireless world is now divided into GSM (much of Western Europe) and CDMA (North America and parts of Asia).
Bad timing may have prevented the evolution of one, single global wireless standard. Just two years before CDMA's 1995 introduction in Hong Kong, European carriers and manufacturers chose to support the first available digital technology - Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA). GSM uses TDMA as its core technology. Therefore, since the majority of wireless users are in Europe and Asia, GSM has taken the worldwide lead as the technology of choice.
Mobile Handset manufacturers ultimately split into two camps, as Motorola, Lucent, and Nextel chose CDMA, and Nokia and Ericsson eventually pushed these companies out and became the dominant GSM players.
Advantages of GSM:
GSM is already used worldwide with over 450 million subscribers.
International roaming permits subscribers to use one phone throughout Western Europe. CDMA will work in Asia, but not France, Germany, the U.K. and other popular European destinations.
GSM is mature, having started in the mid-80s. This maturity means a more stable network with robust features. CDMA is still building its network.
GSM's maturity means engineers cut their teeth on the technology, creating an unconscious preference.
The availability of Subscriber Identity Modules, which are smart cards that provide secure data encryption give GSM m-commerce advantages.
In brief, GSM is a "more elegant way to upgrade to 3G," says Strategis Group senior wireless analyst Adam Guy.
Disadvantages of GSM:
Lack of access to burgeoning American market.
Today, the battle between CDMA and GSM is muddled. Where at one point Europe clearly favored GSM and North America, CDMA, the distinct advantage of one over the other has blurred as major carriers like AT&T Wireless begin to support GSM, and recent trials even showed compatibility between the two technologies.
GSM still holds the upper hand however. There's the numerical advantage for one thing: 456 million GSM users versus CDMA's 82 million.
This is what I have been saying for years....We in the U.S. thinks everything has to be made just by our standards...Apple did the smartest thing by going the world route because its always been a mistake to think that we could have CDMA only market and everyone else would follow...why? the world is much bigger than just the U.S. Before I traveled overseas I remember asking Verizon many times at the time in 2004 they were like we can give you a loaner.......I was like a what? "no way..." If I have my own device I would like to keep it .....so when i got here in Asia I just purchased another phone and threw this one in the drawer where it still sits today...because its nothing more than a brick...This is sad because one day they will come to a world standard as they should have long ago....Im so glad this is happening because they were looking at me back then like why would I want a GSM device when the U.S. is CDMA dominate ........I wish I could talk to the same guys today....
____________________________________
I'm going to start a brand new rumor:
Apple is making a special version of the iPad with parallel and serial ports just for Windows users.
Will it have a 5.25" floppy drive, cassette interface, and a ROM-BASIC?!?!!?
So AT&T only? Come. On.
The only thing that Steve Jobs said on Wednesday was that Apple had negotiated some "break through" prices with AT&T. Then he went on to point out that that iPad was an unlocked device.So based on that, I think that you can safely assume that any other US (or otherwise) GSM-based carrier can service the iPad as long as they use micro-SIMs.
So AT&T only? Come. On.
T-Mobile uses a strange, non-standard band for their 3G data; you will only get EDGE speeds with your iPhone or iPad on their network.
Yes, the iPad is unlocked, but that has no real-world impact in the USA.
Why would Apple spend the time and effort to do this, when Verizon is switching to a global standard next year?
Because it will take years for that new standard to be fully deployed and even once it is, CDMA won't be going away right away. Or do you expect every Verizon customer to instantly throw out their CDMA phones and switch to a new one? The transition will take at least as long as the expected lifetime of an iPad.
Actually, I think Verizon should make a 3G hardware accessory (dongle) and app for the iPhone / Touch / iPad.
They do, sort of. Their mi-fi card. It's not a dongle, but it my opinion it's better because you don't have anything sticking out of your device, and it can support multiple devices simultaneously. And the new Palm Pre Plus and Palm Pixie Plus can share their 3G connections as well.
It comes down to technical, which is minor as proven time and time again by cell manufactures who make different phones for different networks; and business, much tougher to solve considering the two companies involved.
When I see a Verizon store with an Apple portable in it, I will believe it.
Oh really ?
Snakehead and just plain snake. Cute.
Well, dropping the Mac Mini and white MacBook prices by $250 each tomorrow would likely have that result too. Doesn't mean its anywhere near an Apple-minded decision.
Pray, tell us Oh Omniscient One, how you come to know of Apple's demand elasticities? They must be really stupid if they're not taking advantage of a quick and easy two hundred mil boost. The Apple shareholders meeting is coming up, I think I just might attend so I could nominate you to replace the obviously floundering Steve Jobs, eh?
Despite Apple last week introducing an AT&T-only 3G data plan for the iPad in the U.S., rumors continue to persist that the hardware maker will introduce a CDMA-capable model for the Verizon network.
Citing a source within Verizon, Silicon Alley Insider reported Monday that a CDMA-compatible iPad is "still in the works."
Introduced last week, the new iPad comes in a 3G-enabled version with a $130 price premium. The GSM-only version will offer no-contract data plans with AT&T, running $15 per month for 250MB of data, or $30 per month for unlimited access.
If the rumor proves accurate, a Verizon-compatible iPad would likely be an entirely new hardware version, rather than a "world mode" device. The 3G-capable AT&T iPad is scheduled to launch in three months.
In addition to Monday's anonymous tip, analysts Brian Marshall, with Broadpoint AmTech, and Ashok Kumar, with Northeast Securities, also said they still believe a Verizon iPad will arrive in the near future. Both incorrectly predicted that Apple would introduce a Verizon-capable iPad last week.
Last week, Apple executives made a clear effort to demonstrate they are happy with their partnership with AT&T. The company also aimed to downplay speculation that the iPhone would become available on multiple carriers in the U.S.
On a conference call following its quarterly earnings report, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said multi-carrier strategies are not the best option for every country.
"I don't want to imply that would happen in every market or that we are headed that way in every market," Cook said. He also specifically defended AT&T and said the nation's second-largest wireless carrier is working to alleviate coverage concerns across the country.
In the months of lead-up to the iPad announcement last week, numerous reports suggested Apple would introduce devices compatible with the networks of both AT&T and Verizon. Marshall went as far as to call Verizon compatibility "a certainty."
Contacted by Silicon Alley Insider, the analyst said he's "not 100 percent sure" what happened, but he believes a Verizon iPad is coming in the near-term, and a CDMA iPhone will arrive in the second half of 2010.
Analysts now believe a partnership with Verizon -- perhaps for both the iPhone and the iPad -- could be unveiled at the Worldwide Developers Conference this summer. A calendar listing for San Francisco's Moscone Center has led some to believe that WWDC 2010 could take place between June 28 and July 2.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available? Does Apple want some customers that would buy an iPhone today to wait until the Verizon version is available? That would be a HELL no. Apple has never announced replacement products before they are available. Why would they start now? These analysts and pundits clearly aren't very bright.
Also, I am pretty damn positive that Verizon will also support a version of the iPad at launch. However, if Apple announces a partnership today with Verizon there is ZERO upside but some possible downside as many would-be iPhone buyers today would assume a Verizon iPhone is coming soon and might wait. Bottom line - Apple will absolutely, definitely, unequivocally have an iPHone and the iPad on Verizon within the next 3-6 months but there is absolutely no good reason why they would announce it until the day it is available.
And when the iPhone goes to Verizon you can expect sales to more than double overnight. There will be even more migration from smaller carriers to Verizon than there were to AT&T and Verizon still has more subscribers than AT&T.
And anyone who doubts the iPad is not paying attention. Apple is positioning this device as THE mobile device for everyone on the planet. It can do a little (or a lot) of everything at a price point that provides a buying opportunity for damn near everyone from the lower middle class and up.
Hospitals, schools, consumers, retailers, and who the hell knows who else is going to use this device....The rumors that Apple plans to sell 10 million of these in year one is not surprising and seems very realistic to me. The iPad will become THE mobile device of this decade. Yes, it will cannibalize some iPod sales. Yes, I also think it will cannibalize some Mac sales (far more iPod than Mac) but it is going to grow the total number of devices Apple sells by a significant number and the ASP of all those devices will go up with the iPad as it cannibalizes sales from lower ASP products (on average).
Amazing that so few investors see this potential currently but it will be apparent fairly quickly after the iPad launches. Rest assured that Apple will announce sales figures unlike Amazon with the Kindle and people will be blown away by the numbers.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available?
While I agree with your reasoning here (regarding the pre-announce), and your overall assessment of the iPad, I'm not sure I can agree that Apple will go with Verizon, at least not in the near future. I must admit to being on the fence on this. It would not shock me if Apple were to sign on with Verizon this year, and I'm sure there would be plenty of upside for them if they did, but I'm really leaning against it happening until Verizon moves beyond CDMA.
I find it difficult to believe that Apple would want to mess with CDMA technology that is already known to be dead end. It's much cleaner for them to stick with the GSM, thereby simplifying their sku's, supply chain, and engineering efforts.
For those of you advocating iPad on Verizon, do you believe Verizon would agree to the same pricing and terms that AT&T has agreed to? I don't.
The whole Verizon/AT&T war isn't necessarily as much of an issue for iPad as well, because there is a WiFi only version. Verizon customers who want an iPad could go the WiFi only route, or possibly tether from their Verizon handset (not sure that it's feasible, but it might be). For that matter, since there is no contract requirement, they could buy a per month data package from AT&T as required. Granted that many Verizon customers might be loathe to do that as there seems to be a hugely adversarial disposition between customers of Verizon and AT&T, but for those people who have more important things to think about than which is more black, the kettle or the pot, there are options.
I find it difficult to believe that Apple would want to mess with CDMA technology that is already known to be dead end. It's much cleaner for them to stick with the GSM, thereby simplifying their sku's, supply chain, and engineering efforts.
It is about cost and benefit.
It costs only $5 million to design a CDMA variant, it doesn't raise inventory cost by a lot, it doesn't raise supply chain management cost by a lot....
It's all plug and play. You want to sell a CDMA chipset --- and if your customer uses MS-DOS on their cell phone design, then the chipset maker will port the wireless driver to MS-DOS. You want to sell a wireless chipset in the US, you better have a reference design that already got a FCC certification.
I don't get the whole dead end argument. Cell phones are a disposible item --- consumers don't care if Verizon shuts down their CDMA network in 5 years, if they are going to only hold on to their cell phone for just 2 years.
Why the hell would Apple ever announce a Verizon phone before it is actually available? Does Apple want some customers that would buy an iPhone today to wait until the Verizon version is available?
No. They want customers that would buy a Droid today to wait until the Verizon iPhone is available (if the rumor is true...a very BIG IF).
It is about cost and benefit.
It costs only $5 million to design a CDMA variant, it doesn't raise inventory cost by a lot, it doesn't raise supply chain management cost by a lot....
It's all plug and play. You want to sell a CDMA chipset --- and if your customer uses MS-DOS on their cell phone design, then the chipset maker will port the wireless driver to MS-DOS. You want to sell a wireless chipset in the US, you better have a reference design that already got a FCC certification.
I don't get the whole dead end argument. Cell phones are a disposible item --- consumers don't care if Verizon shuts down their CDMA network in 5 years, if they are going to only hold on to their cell phone for just 2 years.
I'm not sure where you get your $5M design cost, but no matter. I'm sure Apple can afford whatever it costs, and probably already have working CDMA models, just as a matter of course.
But where I'm not sure about your argument is the assertion of low costs of inventory and supply chain mgmt. It might actually be trickier than you think. I could envision, especially on the iPhone side, in the first 6-12 months of AT&T + Verizon availability, major problems predicting demand between the two skus with all of the churn that would likely happen. It could actually be a major headache to manage. That uncertainty might even extend beyond 12 months due to the existence of two year contracts. I could easily see a situation of too many GSM phones and not enough CDMA phones, or vice versa.
Apple would no doubt eventually dial it in, and they might be able to manage it well right out of the gate, but I frankly could envision a scenario where they struggle with it. The other thing to remember, Apple intentionally narrows their product focus in many aspects of their business. How many times have you read, "if Apple only made... they would sell bazillions of 'em"? Name your technology, mini towers for example. Apple seemingly leaves alot of sales on the table, but last time I checked, they were doing pretty well.