Loyal, yes, but shouldn't we quit calling them stupid before anybody has had a chance to see for themselves how good the iPad is? My feeling is that all these early adopters who have preordered an iPad unseen KNOW what the iPad is and isn't, and have decided that this is a device they would find useful and enjoyable. Nothing stupid about that, is there?
I guess you call it consumer confidence. Wonder what the pre-order figures for iPad's competitors are????
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Has anyone who projects the failure of Apple & the iPad has considered that the computer world software has become so bloated with features that are not used? The Apple iPhone, iTouch & now the iPad have SIMPLE programs that do ONE function very well and at a very reasonable price (and often free!)
This is what computing started out to be.... simple & easy. We all crave it now in our harried lives. That is why everyone is lining up for this product - SIMPLICITY with style.
Apple: BRING IT ON! You have my trust - sight unseen & my $$ (6 figures of stock)
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
You need apps for the iPad. Maybe she figures everyone will spend at least $50 on apps and buy at least one accessory.
]P.S. How about a MBP refresh now that the iPad is shipping, please?
I think, given SJ's recent email saying, "Not to worry," that the MBP and MP refresh is not far away. And, although it may be entirely unrelated, I did notice that they added another financing option at the Store sometime recently: 18 months free financing on orders over $2500.
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. I doubt it effects the initial orders. These orders are from app developers, IT testing, web developers, and Apple enthusiasts. With 150,000 apps, a significant part of the first day sales could be accounted for by developers.
That those iPad numbers will be achieved. Seems like wishful thinking. I think it will sell well though.
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
That those iPad numbers will be achieved. Seems like wishful thinking. I think it will sell well though.
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
The iPad has a lot of mainstream uses. Additionally this product will fit in a lot of niche markets that never had an appropriate device. This will be very big. You need to remember that these pre-orders are for the US only. Apple sells more products outside the US then they do here. They are an international icon after all. You can count on more then doubling the initial sales here after it launches in other countries.
The iPhone and iPad are two different things. Most of the iPhone growth is from other countries, not from repeat buyers. I imagine with an update in June that many people will be ready to upgrade their phones for the first time though. I think this will be bigger then then 3GS launch in the states.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad?
Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.
They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.
It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.
Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.
Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. [...]
I don't think it will much affect the iPod Touch's sales, entirely different use cases. If anything, it will affect MB and lower end MBP sales, but those "lost" sales will likely convert to desktop+ iPad sales .
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.
I think the article says that they're going to be building that many, not selling... there is a lot of channel inventory and store stock. I think Apple likes to have about 6 weeks of inventory in the channel, meaning that the actual sell-through will be less than that.
But if they get enough buzz, especially surrounding the iPad-as-a-gaming-system, Apple could have a very nice Christmas quarter.
Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.
They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.
It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.
Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.
It feels like 3rd party products are coming out quicker then Apple expected. This will be a fun ride.
I don't think it will much affect the iPod Touch's sales, entirely different use cases. If anything, it will affect MB and lower end MBP sales, but those "lost" sales will likely convert to desktop+ iPad sales .
It will probably effect low end mac sales, especially in schools that may be able to rely entirely on an iPad. It will also get them in to budget constrained schools that were previously on a net book strategy. I know there are budget constrained schools that are keeping a close eye on the iPad for this reason. There will likely be much more inexpensive educational software available for the iPad vs a NetBook too. Pages is only $10 vs $150 for the education version of office. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple offers a 10% discount to schools on the AppStore like they do on boxed software. Deployment and maintenance of an iPad is also much easier then a netbook for a school that may not have dedicated IT staff. If the school does have IT staff, it would give them more time to focus on server infrastructure and actually improving education instead of fixing machines.
Apple doesn't make that much margin on the low end macs though, so this probably isn't a big deal. I expect that there will be some halo effect (combined with increasing market share) that will reverse the cannibalization a bit. Especially if Apple releases a hybrid OS X / iPad device. Such a device was rumored. I wouldn't be surprised to see it late this year at the earliest. It makes sense to have a hybrid device as Apple works to modernize aspects of Cocoa and their operating system. There are many things about the iPad/iPhone operating system that are a step ahead of OS X. Making a hybrid OS would allow them to gracefully advance OS X by allowing them to incrementally update the iPad side until it surpasses the legacy Cocoa side.
Comments
Not even one customer had this product in their hands! Must be great to have so many stupid loyal customers. SCTR :P
Loyal yes, stupid no. You however...
Doomed!
MSFT next. XOM not too far...... (then I start to worry).
Loyal, yes, but shouldn't we quit calling them stupid before anybody has had a chance to see for themselves how good the iPad is? My feeling is that all these early adopters who have preordered an iPad unseen KNOW what the iPad is and isn't, and have decided that this is a device they would find useful and enjoyable. Nothing stupid about that, is there?
I guess you call it consumer confidence. Wonder what the pre-order figures for iPad's competitors are????
Now hopefully this extremely disappointing "later in the year" nonsense for the rest of the world will be changed to "immediately".
Happy to be a shareholder!
Would those who balked at the idea of them selling 4 million in the first year now come and apologise?
Well they're right in a sense, 8-10M isn't 4M now is it?
Apple is doomed!
Has anyone who projects the failure of Apple & the iPad has considered that the computer world software has become so bloated with features that are not used? The Apple iPhone, iTouch & now the iPad have SIMPLE programs that do ONE function very well and at a very reasonable price (and often free!)
This is what computing started out to be.... simple & easy. We all crave it now in our harried lives. That is why everyone is lining up for this product - SIMPLICITY with style.
Apple: BRING IT ON! You have my trust - sight unseen & my $$ (6 figures of stock)
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts...
Since when? I haven't seen her come out with a well-reasoned analysis yet. Beware any stock decisions based on her and Wu's comments.
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
You need apps for the iPad. Maybe she figures everyone will spend at least $50 on apps and buy at least one accessory.
]P.S. How about a MBP refresh now that the iPad is shipping, please?
I think, given SJ's recent email saying, "Not to worry," that the MBP and MP refresh is not far away. And, although it may be entirely unrelated, I did notice that they added another financing option at the Store sometime recently: 18 months free financing on orders over $2500.
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. I doubt it effects the initial orders. These orders are from app developers, IT testing, web developers, and Apple enthusiasts. With 150,000 apps, a significant part of the first day sales could be accounted for by developers.
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
That those iPad numbers will be achieved. Seems like wishful thinking. I think it will sell well though.
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
The iPad has a lot of mainstream uses. Additionally this product will fit in a lot of niche markets that never had an appropriate device. This will be very big. You need to remember that these pre-orders are for the US only. Apple sells more products outside the US then they do here. They are an international icon after all. You can count on more then doubling the initial sales here after it launches in other countries.
The iPhone and iPad are two different things. Most of the iPhone growth is from other countries, not from repeat buyers. I imagine with an update in June that many people will be ready to upgrade their phones for the first time though. I think this will be bigger then then 3GS launch in the states.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad?
Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.
They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.
It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.
Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.
Cannibalization will probably be high among the iPod touch. iPod touch market share may grow quick enough to make up for the cannibalization though. [...]
I don't think it will much affect the iPod Touch's sales, entirely different use cases. If anything, it will affect MB and lower end MBP sales, but those "lost" sales will likely convert to desktop+ iPad sales .
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
I mean, hey I'm an Apple-cheering iPad optimist, but even I thought I was stretching it when I predicted 4-5 million iPads sold in 2010, which is in the high end of what the analysts predict.
If these numbers reported are correct, what gives Apple so much confidence in the iPad? After all we are talking about a whole new category of devices for Apple, and noticably a product category that has so far been a flop as a mass market product. And Apple expects to sell 8-10 million units of this thing in the first 9 months? A million a month?? Really?
For comparison it took Apple 74 days to sell its first million iPhones.
I think the article says that they're going to be building that many, not selling... there is a lot of channel inventory and store stock. I think Apple likes to have about 6 weeks of inventory in the channel, meaning that the actual sell-through will be less than that.
But if they get enough buzz, especially surrounding the iPad-as-a-gaming-system, Apple could have a very nice Christmas quarter.
Probably the preorder sales figures outstripped all of Apple's internal estimates.
They've already turned off preorders (or said that they won't ship until the 12th), switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems), and it looks like their initial production run has sold out.
It is also possible that Apple is seeing very heavy development activity by third-party software companies.
Also, it is likely that Apple has a better idea of when international launches will take place and perhaps some of those are sooner than originally forecasted.
It feels like 3rd party products are coming out quicker then Apple expected. This will be a fun ride.
I don't think it will much affect the iPod Touch's sales, entirely different use cases. If anything, it will affect MB and lower end MBP sales, but those "lost" sales will likely convert to desktop+ iPad sales .
It will probably effect low end mac sales, especially in schools that may be able to rely entirely on an iPad. It will also get them in to budget constrained schools that were previously on a net book strategy. I know there are budget constrained schools that are keeping a close eye on the iPad for this reason. There will likely be much more inexpensive educational software available for the iPad vs a NetBook too. Pages is only $10 vs $150 for the education version of office. I wouldn't be surprised if Apple offers a 10% discount to schools on the AppStore like they do on boxed software. Deployment and maintenance of an iPad is also much easier then a netbook for a school that may not have dedicated IT staff. If the school does have IT staff, it would give them more time to focus on server infrastructure and actually improving education instead of fixing machines.
Apple doesn't make that much margin on the low end macs though, so this probably isn't a big deal. I expect that there will be some halo effect (combined with increasing market share) that will reverse the cannibalization a bit. Especially if Apple releases a hybrid OS X / iPad device. Such a device was rumored. I wouldn't be surprised to see it late this year at the earliest. It makes sense to have a hybrid device as Apple works to modernize aspects of Cocoa and their operating system. There are many things about the iPad/iPhone operating system that are a step ahead of OS X. Making a hybrid OS would allow them to gracefully advance OS X by allowing them to incrementally update the iPad side until it surpasses the legacy Cocoa side.