Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
For the June quarter, the estimated average selling price is about $550 (which I think is a bit low; the 64GB model might be fairly popular). At about 40% margin, that would be $220. The ASP may go up a bit in the following quarters as more 3G units are in the mix.
Note that iPhone margins were estimated to be close to 60%, based on what could be deduced from the revenue/expense deferral numbers. So 40% here could be in the right ballpark.
I also don't think we'll be seeing a "hybrid OSX /iPad device" any time soon, and I think they are doing a good job of "gracefully" advancing OS X right now;
Apple is no longer a computer company. They are now a mobile device company.
I'm really not sure how you don't see the iPad as a viable replacement for schools looking to netbooks for students. What functionality do netbooks offer for educational purposes that the iPad doesn't offer? I'm not trying to just be argumentative here, I'm really curious as to what you see as lacking in the iPad for this purpose. The benefits of the iPad seem pretty obvious in that it is an inherently more secure device, and SHOULD be more reliable over the long run with no moving parts such as hard drives or a tilting screen. As a student myself (very part time) I can't see needing to do anything school related that this device wouldn't cover. Taking notes, writing papers, Internet research, e-textbooks, e-mail, calendar, this seems a really good fit for education. The App Store goes a long way to shielding most users from malicious software further making the case for an iPad being a good netbook replacement. So once again I ask why would the iPad be a bad netbook replacement for students?
Well, I don't really think netbooks are a great option for schools either, although, I can understand why some are going that route for purely cost reasons, given the current economics of education. I'm also not an advocate of computing devices for note taking, and I read a report somewhere (Science Times, perhaps?), recently, of a study indicating that this actually interferes with learning, which isn't surprising to me.
I also think it's a mistake generally to think of an iPad as a netbook replacement. A netbook is basically a cheap replacement for a laptop, which is itself a portable replacement for a desktop. An iPad is a new device meant for computing in scenarios where one isn't chained to a desk, and for accessing information in either a more casual context, or in serious contexts where mobility is an important component, but one needs more computing resources (including screen real estate) than a smartphone can provide.
I'm sure you could do most of the things you mention on an iPad. But, for paper writing, film editing (which kids at some schools do do), serious research, or any other focused and intensive computing task, it will still probably be performed better at a traditional computer. In terms of security, an iPad would also be more easily stolen, and it isn't invulnerable to exploits, so I'm not sure that's a winning point. Eventually, e-textbooks could be something that would justify widespread adoption, but I think that's still a bit in the future. (And, I'm not sure how much a part of the educational process email and calendaring are in the typical elementary or secondary school.)
I do, however, think that, with specific educational software and for specific educational tasks, the iPad has the potential to be a valuable educational tool, particularly, as I said previously, in the earlier grades, where it may enable more tactile methods of learning without tying students to desks. But, the main point is that an iPad is not the perfect, or best, device for all types of computing, and that it would be a mistake to use it in cases where there are more appropriate solutions.
10 000 000? Not bad. What about iTunes? Current version supports iPad or we should see iTunes update in next few days?
we'll see at least a minor update that will include the proper ids to recognize an ipad. hopefully in the next couple of days to give folks time to download without breaking the servers like the whole mobileme/appstore/requiredactivation did a couple of years back
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen
Looks like they are shipping pre-orders from China, directly to buyers.
or not. my dad worked for one of the big shippers and he said that for this kind of thing it is typical for the company to wrap and label individual boxes and then multipack them in larger boxes to go through customs on a pallet shipped via a freight ship. Then from customs it goes to a nearby sorting center where the pallets and packs are opened and things are shipped out to the various hubs then to smaller hubs where they wait for the drop date. the night before the trucks are loaded and first thing in the morning off they go.
this was basically how the last couple of Harry Potters went when they got the Amazon ship outs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hexor
Are they paying the extra fee for UPS to have all the pre-orderes delivered on a Saturday???
yep. if UPS asked for one. they might not have cause Apple is such a big company and likely a major client. which is also how Apple can get them to hold all deliveries until Saturday. you don't piss off that kind of money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyPappy
I should be on the list!!!!
Where's my GD shipment notification?!?!?!?!?
easy cowboy. you'll get it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
I did notice that they added another financing option at the Store sometime recently: 18 months free financing on orders over $2500.
that's not an Apple thing. that's Barclay Bank. they do it to lure folks into getting their card and the 23% interest that comes with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831
They've already turned off preorders
due to a need for processing time if nothing else. same for the reservations
Quote:
(or said that they won't ship until the 12th),
no they said BY the 12th. which means that orders could turn up on the 3rd they just aren't promising it. or be shipped out any time before or on the 12th.
Quote:
switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems)
rumor only.
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers
It feels like 3rd party products are coming out quicker then Apple expected. This will be a fun ride.
Why do you think that Apple announced so early. trip game
1. the FCC stuff would likely cause a leak anyway.same for media outlets they were talking to and publishers
2. gives app devos time to update
3. gives 3rd party companies time to get their stuff together.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor
This weekend at a party I talked to a guy buying five of them for evaluation at his firm.
my boss ordered 2 on the first day to eval. I get double pay when I work on Saturdays cause it would be a sixth day. He's giving me trip pay to go get them for him. His plan is to try them out and if he likes he'll buy enough 3g's to cover all the main crew and 3-4 for temps. the initial two will go to his daughters for games, watching movies etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
Some schools might do this, but it would be a mistake for schools to purchase iPads instead of Desktop systems.
I doubt anyone would replace a desktop with an ipad. but notebooks. sure. you get all the needed functions, you have better parental controls and no worries of another Lower Merion incident
Plus the ereader functions could prove more practical than carrying around tons of textbooks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov
No international release date yet. I hope I don't have to wait until June
you might. there's a lot of laws to deal with when you import something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by svnipp
Really great point here. I doubt that any iPad competitor will ever come close to the pre-order numbers that Apple has posted for the iPad.
Except that Apple hasn't posted any numbers. And they won't. It's not their style. They will wait for actual sales numbers.
all the pre-order and reservation numbers we have seen are best guesses by analysts etc
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
that number is for the fiscal year. which has a solid six months left. And it isn't a number by Apple but rather another best guess by those analysts. Plus it's a world wide number.
And if production can keep up it's not an implausible number.
I'm really not sure how you don't see the iPad as a viable replacement for schools looking to netbooks for students. What functionality do netbooks offer for educational purposes that the iPad doesn't offer? I'm not trying to just be argumentative here, I'm really curious as to what you see as lacking in the iPad for this purpose. The benefits of the iPad seem pretty obvious in that it is an inherently more secure device, and SHOULD be more reliable over the long run with no moving parts such as hard drives or a tilting screen. As a student myself (very part time) I can't see needing to do anything school related that this device wouldn't cover. Taking notes, writing papers, Internet research, e-textbooks, e-mail, calendar, this seems a really good fit for education. The App Store goes a long way to shielding most users from malicious software further making the case for an iPad being a good netbook replacement. So once again I ask why would the iPad be a bad netbook replacement for students?
In our schools, user files for all applications are stored on the school's shared servers, as opposed to the local hard disk drive, so that they can be properly protected and backed up. So until Apple or somebody else offers this service, I'd hesitate to say that it can replace the notebook/netbook. But I'm sure it's coming so I wouldn't hesitate to have schools buy evaluation units.
Also, print functionality to shared printers needs to become more clear. I'm sure the iPad will be able to print; I just haven't seen or heard how it happens yet.
Otherwise, in terms of what users will do, I agree that for elementary and even middle schools, the iPad will be sufficient, as educational software and textbooks becomes available. For high school and college, it's probably okay unless you are developing software or media, or doing most types of engineering. (Netbooks aren't really good for those either.)
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
On the supply side, Apple usually does a slow production ramp-up to make sure the devices are being built correctly to its high standards (and probably to make sure they didn't overestimate demand and don't overproduce). So in time, they will be building greater quantities in the same amount of time.
Even if they only built 300K for the April 3rd launch (and that's just a rumor which I think is too low), I've no doubt they can get to ten million units before the end of this year.
I also think it's a mistake generally to think of an iPad as a netbook replacement. A netbook is basically a cheap replacement for a laptop, which is itself a portable replacement for a desktop. An iPad is a new device meant for computing in scenarios where one isn't chained to a desk, and for accessing information in either a more casual context, or in serious contexts where mobility is an important component, but one needs more computing resources (including screen real estate) than a smartphone can provide.
Fair enough on these points. I'm not going to disagree with you that a netbook is a cheap laptop and a laptop a portable replacement for a desktop. However, I think that an iPad can perform most of the same functions that a typical netbook is actually used for. This is why I think it's very practical to compare the iPad to a netbook for general user purposes. Now, I think this is absolutely a new class of device that is going to find completely new uses and markets that will set it apart but it will also remain a viable netbook replacement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
I'm sure you could do most of the things you mention on an iPad. But, for paper writing, film editing (which kids at some schools do do), serious research, or any other focused and intensive computing task, it will still probably be performed better at a traditional computer. In terms of security, an iPad would also be more easily stolen, and it isn't invulnerable to exploits, so I'm not sure that's a winning point. Eventually, e-textbooks could be something that would justify widespread adoption, but I think that's still a bit in the future. (And, I'm not sure how much a part of the educational process email and calendaring are in the typical elementary or secondary school.)
Once again, I'm not going to argue with you that an iPad is not going to be the platform for computing intense applications. Video editing, running scientific simulations, etc will still need the power of a more full featured laptop if not a full blown desktop computer. That however is a different use entirely and for me would warrant a different device. As for the security aspect, I don't espouse that the iPad would be invulnerable to exploits, just that it would be much more resistant than your typical Windows based netbook. I also don't think that the iPad is really going to be any more susceptible to theft that a netbook or any other laptop for that matter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
I do, however, think that, with specific educational software and for specific educational tasks, the iPad has the potential to be a valuable educational tool, particularly, as I said previously, in the earlier grades, where it may enable more tactile methods of learning without tying students to desks. But, the main point is that an iPad is not the perfect, or best, device for all types of computing, and that it would be a mistake to use it in cases where there are more appropriate solutions.
I can't imagine that we are ever going to get to the point where a single computing device is going to be the perfect fit for every scenario. I do think though that the iPad or tablets in general would be a good fit in numerous educational situations. I think that the iPad is a better device in an educational environment where a netbook is currently used or being evaluated for use. I see very few advantages that a netbook offers over the iPad and many of these same advantages can also be disadvantages.
I think this new device is going to find lots of different uses. For instance, my wife is a Physical Therapist and she currently does some of her work on a PDA device and the iPad would be a vast improvement over that scenario. In fact, with the government mandate regarding electronic medical records I can see the iPad being incredibly useful in a variety of medical environments. There are numerous other industries where I see this type of device and being incredibly useful also, but time will tell how well received the iPad is and the uses to which it is put.
In our schools, user files for all applications are stored on the school's shared servers, as opposed to the local hard disk drive, so that they can be properly protected and backed up. So until Apple or somebody else offers this service, I'd hesitate to say that it can replace the notebook/netbook. But I'm sure it's coming so I wouldn't hesitate to have schools buy evaluation units.
Also, print functionality to shared printers needs to become more clear. I'm sure the iPad will be able to print; I just haven't seen or heard how it happens yet.
Otherwise, in terms of what users will do, I agree that for elementary and even middle schools, the iPad will be sufficient, as educational software and textbooks becomes available. For high school and college, it's probably okay unless you are developing software or media, or doing most types of engineering. (Netbooks aren't really good for those either.)
I am very curious to see about the ability for the iPad to access a network share. You are correct in that this will be important. My first thought here would be accessing the network share via a web front-end. You would then be able to download needed files to the iPad, open and modify them via something like iWorks, and then upload the changed files via the same web front-end. This however would require some leg work by IT staff to setup this kind of access where being able to simply map a network share would be much easier.
One of the first things I'm planning on playing around with is attempting to setup a shared printer from my home Mac for the iPad to access. I have a feeling that this is going to be getting a lot of attention by a lot of people come this weekend.
I agree with your assessment for school users. However, I think this would still be useful for software development and engineering in that the iPad could simply be an interface to more powerful resources via something like VNC. This scenario gives you the ultra-portability of the iPad with the backend horsepower offered by a workstation or larger system. Obviously though, the individual situation will be the determining factor in what is appropriate for a give situation.
What do you call people who judge the action of others whom they never met and do not really know?
Bigots.
They are the ones who outshout others deluded that is the way to get their point across in public forums.
They are in the same group of people who murder their adversaries because they believe in the sanctity of life (re: abortion debate).
******
bigot
Main Entry: big·ot
Pronunciation: \\?bi-g?t\\
Function: noun
Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
Date: 1660
: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance
Are you serious? Did you met me or do you know me really to judge me? You call me a bigot because I called people stupid for giving $500 for a product they never saw?
Is there such a big difference between :P and ?
It seems so. I should have used the second emoticon in my post.
I am very curious to see about the ability for the iPad to access a network share. You are correct in that this will be important. My first thought here would be accessing the network share via a web front-end. You would then be able to download needed files to the iPad, open and modify them via something like iWorks, and then upload the changed files via the same web front-end. This however would require some leg work by IT staff to setup this kind of access where being able to simply map a network share would be much easier.
I bring this up because the whole area of "files" is unclear. Let's say you're working in Pages. Is there any facility to change the saving of your Pages file from the flash RAM to a network drive? If I want to open a file, when I tap on Open, will the iPad know to look on a networked drive? How does the iPad even know about a networked drive? Will that be configured in Settings? How will Mobile Me's iDisk work with this; is it a special option whenever you open or save when you have a Mobile Me account set up in Settings?
Quote:
I agree with your assessment for school users. However, I think this would still be useful for software development and engineering in that the iPad could simply be an interface to more powerful resources via something like VNC. This scenario gives you the ultra-portability of the iPad with the backend horsepower offered by a workstation or larger system. Obviously though, the individual situation will be the determining factor in what is appropriate for a give situation.
Good point about accessing back-end resources. But will something like VNC be adept enough to allow me to use/control apps that were created for window and mouse when all I have is multi-touch?
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
10 million iPhones in a year was considered wild and bombastic - and yet they did it.
The iPad plugs a much bigger hole and doesn't come with a large monthly contract like the iPhone, and the 16 GB model costs less than the original iPhone.
That it's going to be huge is blatantly obvious to me. For the first time EVER my parents have pre-ordered a high tech product. My parents are going to an Apple store on launch day - without me! The thought is just ludicrous yet Saturday my dad will be there to claim his iPad. Cannibalization? Not to worry - my father would never have been comfortable with a "regular" computer - windows or Mac. Tried to get him to use one of my old laptops and he just didn't get it. But he's really looking forward to the iPad. That's the market - the current user base that isn't served by any of the existing computing solutions. The user base that's even larger than the current user base of traditional computers. All it's going to take is him showing it to a few of his friends at the coffee shop (there's another surreal thought, yet he's already asked me about it!). This thing is going to go viral like no other product because it's so unlike a traditional computer, and it's going to be VERY tactile. I've touched (ha!) on this before but mice/trackpads require a certain level of abstraction, and the iPad bypasses that. Direct manipulation. The ultimate WYSIWYG...
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
They can barley keep up with world wide demand of the iPhone as it is - and AT&T has been adding more subs than Verizon for at least the last three quarters - haven't seen this quarter - if Verizon did it's a temporary respite with new Android phone and an iPhone refresh looming.
I don't think Apple has to worry about profits, and I don't see the iPhone coming to Verizon any time soon so have fun waiting!
Comments
Huberty is always one of the less optimistic analysts, so this bodes pretty well for Apple. At the same time, $0.25/share per million is roughly $220 net profit per unit. That is a bit higher than I would expect, and despite the fact that I think cannibalization will be minimal, wouldn't account for any.
Happy to be a shareholder!
For the June quarter, the estimated average selling price is about $550 (which I think is a bit low; the 64GB model might be fairly popular). At about 40% margin, that would be $220. The ASP may go up a bit in the following quarters as more 3G units are in the mix.
Note that iPhone margins were estimated to be close to 60%, based on what could be deduced from the revenue/expense deferral numbers. So 40% here could be in the right ballpark.
The iPad has a lot of mainstream uses. Additionally this product will fit in a lot of niche markets that never had an appropriate device.
The iPad is the best way to surf the internet. It is also the best way to consume all other media.
It does things better than any laptop and better than any cellphone.
Netbooks don't do anything better.
I also don't think we'll be seeing a "hybrid OSX /iPad device" any time soon, and I think they are doing a good job of "gracefully" advancing OS X right now;
Apple is no longer a computer company. They are now a mobile device company.
I'm really not sure how you don't see the iPad as a viable replacement for schools looking to netbooks for students. What functionality do netbooks offer for educational purposes that the iPad doesn't offer? I'm not trying to just be argumentative here, I'm really curious as to what you see as lacking in the iPad for this purpose. The benefits of the iPad seem pretty obvious in that it is an inherently more secure device, and SHOULD be more reliable over the long run with no moving parts such as hard drives or a tilting screen. As a student myself (very part time) I can't see needing to do anything school related that this device wouldn't cover. Taking notes, writing papers, Internet research, e-textbooks, e-mail, calendar, this seems a really good fit for education. The App Store goes a long way to shielding most users from malicious software further making the case for an iPad being a good netbook replacement. So once again I ask why would the iPad be a bad netbook replacement for students?
Well, I don't really think netbooks are a great option for schools either, although, I can understand why some are going that route for purely cost reasons, given the current economics of education. I'm also not an advocate of computing devices for note taking, and I read a report somewhere (Science Times, perhaps?), recently, of a study indicating that this actually interferes with learning, which isn't surprising to me.
I also think it's a mistake generally to think of an iPad as a netbook replacement. A netbook is basically a cheap replacement for a laptop, which is itself a portable replacement for a desktop. An iPad is a new device meant for computing in scenarios where one isn't chained to a desk, and for accessing information in either a more casual context, or in serious contexts where mobility is an important component, but one needs more computing resources (including screen real estate) than a smartphone can provide.
I'm sure you could do most of the things you mention on an iPad. But, for paper writing, film editing (which kids at some schools do do), serious research, or any other focused and intensive computing task, it will still probably be performed better at a traditional computer. In terms of security, an iPad would also be more easily stolen, and it isn't invulnerable to exploits, so I'm not sure that's a winning point. Eventually, e-textbooks could be something that would justify widespread adoption, but I think that's still a bit in the future. (And, I'm not sure how much a part of the educational process email and calendaring are in the typical elementary or secondary school.)
I do, however, think that, with specific educational software and for specific educational tasks, the iPad has the potential to be a valuable educational tool, particularly, as I said previously, in the earlier grades, where it may enable more tactile methods of learning without tying students to desks. But, the main point is that an iPad is not the perfect, or best, device for all types of computing, and that it would be a mistake to use it in cases where there are more appropriate solutions.
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
They'll make more. Having a few days with low supply won't affect a year's worth of sales
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
They'll make more.
They are just so clever sometimes!
Rounding Error!
Ballmer is a rounding error
10 000 000? Not bad. What about iTunes? Current version supports iPad or we should see iTunes update in next few days?
we'll see at least a minor update that will include the proper ids to recognize an ipad. hopefully in the next couple of days to give folks time to download without breaking the servers like the whole mobileme/appstore/requiredactivation did a couple of years back
Looks like they are shipping pre-orders from China, directly to buyers.
or not. my dad worked for one of the big shippers and he said that for this kind of thing it is typical for the company to wrap and label individual boxes and then multipack them in larger boxes to go through customs on a pallet shipped via a freight ship. Then from customs it goes to a nearby sorting center where the pallets and packs are opened and things are shipped out to the various hubs then to smaller hubs where they wait for the drop date. the night before the trucks are loaded and first thing in the morning off they go.
this was basically how the last couple of Harry Potters went when they got the Amazon ship outs.
Are they paying the extra fee for UPS to have all the pre-orderes delivered on a Saturday???
yep. if UPS asked for one. they might not have cause Apple is such a big company and likely a major client. which is also how Apple can get them to hold all deliveries until Saturday. you don't piss off that kind of money.
I should be on the list!!!!
Where's my GD shipment notification?!?!?!?!?
easy cowboy. you'll get it.
I did notice that they added another financing option at the Store sometime recently: 18 months free financing on orders over $2500.
that's not an Apple thing. that's Barclay Bank. they do it to lure folks into getting their card and the 23% interest that comes with it.
They've already turned off preorders
due to a need for processing time if nothing else. same for the reservations
(or said that they won't ship until the 12th),
no they said BY the 12th. which means that orders could turn up on the 3rd they just aren't promising it. or be shipped out any time before or on the 12th.
switched touchscreen vendors (due to yield problems)
rumor only.
It feels like 3rd party products are coming out quicker then Apple expected. This will be a fun ride.
Why do you think that Apple announced so early. trip game
1. the FCC stuff would likely cause a leak anyway.same for media outlets they were talking to and publishers
2. gives app devos time to update
3. gives 3rd party companies time to get their stuff together.
This weekend at a party I talked to a guy buying five of them for evaluation at his firm.
my boss ordered 2 on the first day to eval. I get double pay when I work on Saturdays cause it would be a sixth day. He's giving me trip pay to go get them for him. His plan is to try them out and if he likes he'll buy enough 3g's to cover all the main crew and 3-4 for temps. the initial two will go to his daughters for games, watching movies etc.
Some schools might do this, but it would be a mistake for schools to purchase iPads instead of Desktop systems.
I doubt anyone would replace a desktop with an ipad. but notebooks. sure. you get all the needed functions, you have better parental controls and no worries of another Lower Merion incident
Plus the ereader functions could prove more practical than carrying around tons of textbooks.
No international release date yet. I hope I don't have to wait until June
you might. there's a lot of laws to deal with when you import something.
Really great point here. I doubt that any iPad competitor will ever come close to the pre-order numbers that Apple has posted for the iPad.
Except that Apple hasn't posted any numbers. And they won't. It's not their style. They will wait for actual sales numbers.
all the pre-order and reservation numbers we have seen are best guesses by analysts etc
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
that number is for the fiscal year. which has a solid six months left. And it isn't a number by Apple but rather another best guess by those analysts. Plus it's a world wide number.
And if production can keep up it's not an implausible number.
I'm really not sure how you don't see the iPad as a viable replacement for schools looking to netbooks for students. What functionality do netbooks offer for educational purposes that the iPad doesn't offer? I'm not trying to just be argumentative here, I'm really curious as to what you see as lacking in the iPad for this purpose. The benefits of the iPad seem pretty obvious in that it is an inherently more secure device, and SHOULD be more reliable over the long run with no moving parts such as hard drives or a tilting screen. As a student myself (very part time) I can't see needing to do anything school related that this device wouldn't cover. Taking notes, writing papers, Internet research, e-textbooks, e-mail, calendar, this seems a really good fit for education. The App Store goes a long way to shielding most users from malicious software further making the case for an iPad being a good netbook replacement. So once again I ask why would the iPad be a bad netbook replacement for students?
In our schools, user files for all applications are stored on the school's shared servers, as opposed to the local hard disk drive, so that they can be properly protected and backed up. So until Apple or somebody else offers this service, I'd hesitate to say that it can replace the notebook/netbook. But I'm sure it's coming so I wouldn't hesitate to have schools buy evaluation units.
Also, print functionality to shared printers needs to become more clear. I'm sure the iPad will be able to print; I just haven't seen or heard how it happens yet.
Otherwise, in terms of what users will do, I agree that for elementary and even middle schools, the iPad will be sufficient, as educational software and textbooks becomes available. For high school and college, it's probably okay unless you are developing software or media, or doing most types of engineering. (Netbooks aren't really good for those either.)
How is Apple going to reach this eight- to ten- million number if it?s already sold out of iPads and pushed back ship dates?
On the supply side, Apple usually does a slow production ramp-up to make sure the devices are being built correctly to its high standards (and probably to make sure they didn't overestimate demand and don't overproduce). So in time, they will be building greater quantities in the same amount of time.
Even if they only built 300K for the April 3rd launch (and that's just a rumor which I think is too low), I've no doubt they can get to ten million units before the end of this year.
I also think it's a mistake generally to think of an iPad as a netbook replacement. A netbook is basically a cheap replacement for a laptop, which is itself a portable replacement for a desktop. An iPad is a new device meant for computing in scenarios where one isn't chained to a desk, and for accessing information in either a more casual context, or in serious contexts where mobility is an important component, but one needs more computing resources (including screen real estate) than a smartphone can provide.
Fair enough on these points. I'm not going to disagree with you that a netbook is a cheap laptop and a laptop a portable replacement for a desktop. However, I think that an iPad can perform most of the same functions that a typical netbook is actually used for. This is why I think it's very practical to compare the iPad to a netbook for general user purposes. Now, I think this is absolutely a new class of device that is going to find completely new uses and markets that will set it apart but it will also remain a viable netbook replacement.
I'm sure you could do most of the things you mention on an iPad. But, for paper writing, film editing (which kids at some schools do do), serious research, or any other focused and intensive computing task, it will still probably be performed better at a traditional computer. In terms of security, an iPad would also be more easily stolen, and it isn't invulnerable to exploits, so I'm not sure that's a winning point. Eventually, e-textbooks could be something that would justify widespread adoption, but I think that's still a bit in the future. (And, I'm not sure how much a part of the educational process email and calendaring are in the typical elementary or secondary school.)
Once again, I'm not going to argue with you that an iPad is not going to be the platform for computing intense applications. Video editing, running scientific simulations, etc will still need the power of a more full featured laptop if not a full blown desktop computer. That however is a different use entirely and for me would warrant a different device. As for the security aspect, I don't espouse that the iPad would be invulnerable to exploits, just that it would be much more resistant than your typical Windows based netbook. I also don't think that the iPad is really going to be any more susceptible to theft that a netbook or any other laptop for that matter.
I do, however, think that, with specific educational software and for specific educational tasks, the iPad has the potential to be a valuable educational tool, particularly, as I said previously, in the earlier grades, where it may enable more tactile methods of learning without tying students to desks. But, the main point is that an iPad is not the perfect, or best, device for all types of computing, and that it would be a mistake to use it in cases where there are more appropriate solutions.
I can't imagine that we are ever going to get to the point where a single computing device is going to be the perfect fit for every scenario. I do think though that the iPad or tablets in general would be a good fit in numerous educational situations. I think that the iPad is a better device in an educational environment where a netbook is currently used or being evaluated for use. I see very few advantages that a netbook offers over the iPad and many of these same advantages can also be disadvantages.
I think this new device is going to find lots of different uses. For instance, my wife is a Physical Therapist and she currently does some of her work on a PDA device and the iPad would be a vast improvement over that scenario. In fact, with the government mandate regarding electronic medical records I can see the iPad being incredibly useful in a variety of medical environments. There are numerous other industries where I see this type of device and being incredibly useful also, but time will tell how well received the iPad is and the uses to which it is put.
In our schools, user files for all applications are stored on the school's shared servers, as opposed to the local hard disk drive, so that they can be properly protected and backed up. So until Apple or somebody else offers this service, I'd hesitate to say that it can replace the notebook/netbook. But I'm sure it's coming so I wouldn't hesitate to have schools buy evaluation units.
Also, print functionality to shared printers needs to become more clear. I'm sure the iPad will be able to print; I just haven't seen or heard how it happens yet.
Otherwise, in terms of what users will do, I agree that for elementary and even middle schools, the iPad will be sufficient, as educational software and textbooks becomes available. For high school and college, it's probably okay unless you are developing software or media, or doing most types of engineering. (Netbooks aren't really good for those either.)
I am very curious to see about the ability for the iPad to access a network share. You are correct in that this will be important. My first thought here would be accessing the network share via a web front-end. You would then be able to download needed files to the iPad, open and modify them via something like iWorks, and then upload the changed files via the same web front-end. This however would require some leg work by IT staff to setup this kind of access where being able to simply map a network share would be much easier.
One of the first things I'm planning on playing around with is attempting to setup a shared printer from my home Mac for the iPad to access. I have a feeling that this is going to be getting a lot of attention by a lot of people come this weekend.
I agree with your assessment for school users. However, I think this would still be useful for software development and engineering in that the iPad could simply be an interface to more powerful resources via something like VNC. This scenario gives you the ultra-portability of the iPad with the backend horsepower offered by a workstation or larger system. Obviously though, the individual situation will be the determining factor in what is appropriate for a give situation.
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Aside to AI-- we need a "doomed" emoticon!
*
Apple is
OK.... I have to admit it gives me a small headache after watching it the first ten times......
OK.... I have to admit it gives me a small headache after watching it the first ten times......
True enough. Maybe it should reserved as a Ballmer emoticon.
What do you call people who judge the action of others whom they never met and do not really know?
Bigots.
They are the ones who outshout others deluded that is the way to get their point across in public forums.
They are in the same group of people who murder their adversaries because they believe in the sanctity of life (re: abortion debate).
******
bigot
Main Entry: big·ot
Pronunciation: \\?bi-g?t\\
Function: noun
Etymology: French, hypocrite, bigot
Date: 1660
: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices; especially : one who regards or treats the members of a group (as a racial or ethnic group) with hatred and intolerance
Are you serious? Did you met me or do you know me really to judge me? You call me a bigot because I called people stupid for giving $500 for a product they never saw?
Is there such a big difference between :P and
It seems so. I should have used the second emoticon in my post.
I am very curious to see about the ability for the iPad to access a network share. You are correct in that this will be important. My first thought here would be accessing the network share via a web front-end. You would then be able to download needed files to the iPad, open and modify them via something like iWorks, and then upload the changed files via the same web front-end. This however would require some leg work by IT staff to setup this kind of access where being able to simply map a network share would be much easier.
I bring this up because the whole area of "files" is unclear. Let's say you're working in Pages. Is there any facility to change the saving of your Pages file from the flash RAM to a network drive? If I want to open a file, when I tap on Open, will the iPad know to look on a networked drive? How does the iPad even know about a networked drive? Will that be configured in Settings? How will Mobile Me's iDisk work with this; is it a special option whenever you open or save when you have a Mobile Me account set up in Settings?
I agree with your assessment for school users. However, I think this would still be useful for software development and engineering in that the iPad could simply be an interface to more powerful resources via something like VNC. This scenario gives you the ultra-portability of the iPad with the backend horsepower offered by a workstation or larger system. Obviously though, the individual situation will be the determining factor in what is appropriate for a give situation.
Good point about accessing back-end resources. But will something like VNC be adept enough to allow me to use/control apps that were created for window and mouse when all I have is multi-touch?
Is Apple really planning on selling 8-10 million iPads in 2010, as the article suggests?
That number just seems incredible, doesn't it?
10 million iPhones in a year was considered wild and bombastic - and yet they did it.
The iPad plugs a much bigger hole and doesn't come with a large monthly contract like the iPhone, and the 16 GB model costs less than the original iPhone.
That it's going to be huge is blatantly obvious to me. For the first time EVER my parents have pre-ordered a high tech product. My parents are going to an Apple store on launch day - without me! The thought is just ludicrous yet Saturday my dad will be there to claim his iPad. Cannibalization? Not to worry - my father would never have been comfortable with a "regular" computer - windows or Mac. Tried to get him to use one of my old laptops and he just didn't get it. But he's really looking forward to the iPad. That's the market - the current user base that isn't served by any of the existing computing solutions. The user base that's even larger than the current user base of traditional computers. All it's going to take is him showing it to a few of his friends at the coffee shop (there's another surreal thought, yet he's already asked me about it!). This thing is going to go viral like no other product because it's so unlike a traditional computer, and it's going to be VERY tactile. I've touched (ha!) on this before but mice/trackpads require a certain level of abstraction, and the iPad bypasses that. Direct manipulation. The ultimate WYSIWYG...
My opinion of the iPhone is that until Apple opens it up to other carries in the U.S., that the growth is somewhat limited. Is their customer base just selling a new iPhone to their diehard fans every year? They need to increase the subscriber base if they want to keep growing profits.
They can barley keep up with world wide demand of the iPhone as it is - and AT&T has been adding more subs than Verizon for at least the last three quarters - haven't seen this quarter - if Verizon did it's a temporary respite with new Android phone and an iPhone refresh looming.
I don't think Apple has to worry about profits, and I don't see the iPhone coming to Verizon any time soon so have fun waiting!