They are feeling way too safe about their business. Better concentrate on the core. Mac OS is getting more and more popular and the more popular the iPhone and iPad will be the more people will think of switching to Mac.
Unrealistic target unless smartphone market expands 3-4 times faster than expected in 2011.
They can always just give the phones away. Not like it would be the first time that they throw money down a hole just to prop up reported unit sales figures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donlphi
Unfortunately, you can't compare the two launches.
Apple iPhone OS available on the Apple iPhone with one service provider in one country at initial launch.
Windows Mobile 7 available on how many phones with how many service providers in how many countries at launch?
If they don't sell 30 million phones in a year, I would call it an epic fail.
I agree with both. I imagine MSFT will get carriers to do the same as BlackBerry and many Android phones - buy one get one free. And doing so skewing their numbers. Also, as stated the iPhone is on one piece of hardware while WM7 will be on multiple carriers and launching globally I'm sure, so you can't compare sales numbers.
Windows Phone 7 will sell 3 million, 30 million is crazy. I will admit that I will be purchasing one during the holidays to give it a try on one of my lines. So by December of this year, my family plan of four lines will consist of iPhone 4G, iPhone 3G, HD2, and Windows Phone 7.
Yes, Microsoft and Apple can co-exist in my family
What I find amazing about this is not just the number itself, but the fact that they made a prediction at all. They didn't make a prediction about Zune sales until almost 6 months had gone by, and they knew how many they would sell, then they predicted that (very small) number. They never broke that number with all the succeeding generations, including the current one.
30 million is a number that I can only think was uttered in mistake. If they said 10 million, I would go along with it. They've got a chance at that. Smartphones sales are roaring, and 10 million in the first year from a product sourced from several manufacturers on a number of carriers around the world is attainable for a Microsoft product. There are enough people out there that could want that. Whether they will do it or not is something else, but it's a possibility. But 30 million is a stunning number. I can't help wondering how they came up with it.
oh, that pesky Mr. Ballmer. always good for a laugh!
there is no way windows phone 7 will outsell that amazing hotness known as "Kin". ha!
i don't think Ballmer has been right about anything since he predicted the iphone would flop in 2007. he was probably still wrong before 2007, but i wasnt paying attention then....lolz
oh, that pesky Mr. Ballmer. always good for a laugh!
there is no way windows phone 7 will outsell that amazing hotness known as "Kin". ha!
i don't think Ballmer has been right about anything since he predicted the iphone would flop in 2007. he was probably still wrong before 2007, but i wasnt paying attention then....lolz
Some have been wondering if the Kin is included in that number. They are both based on the same OS, in the rough. But I don't see the Kin as succeeding.
The problem is, they will have to sell 30 million in the next 2 years in order to be a viable competitor.
If they manage to sell 10 million in the first year, then they will be taken seriously. If sales are much below that, they will have big problems. But right now, Nokia is the most vulnerable, so there's room to grow marketshare there, and smartphone sales are growing by leaps and bounds.
With Palm out of the running for now at least, they have a shot of sorts.
..or, how about: Buy 1 Windows Phone 7, and get 7 for free..!
That should make the sales number look like Microsoft is moving Windows Phone 7 in very large numbers at the end of the year..
Hey, they did it too on Windows 7 launch promo.. Although they offered 7 stacks of beef in a burger for 7 days; the Windows 7 Whopper, but Microsoft can do better than that right..?
This is ridiculously funny! First, I don't know what's so great about Windows Mobile 7 ? There is nothing innovative about it. Microsoft doesn't know how to innovate. I think they must be putting something in those free sodas they provide their employees.
MS unlike Apple doesn't have hardware of their own. So,what that 30 million projection should say is that MS hopes that their hardware partners can crank out 30 million phones carrying the windows mobile 7 OS. Period.
That is the same misinterpreted info given when Android phones are talked about. Android and winmo mobile 7 are OSes sold by competing cell phone makers.
Based on the amount of expected growth in the smartphone market in 2011 and what I've seen from MS' redesign of WinMo7 I think it's possible. I don't think they'll beat Apple that year on unit sales and obviously not come close to revenue and profit as Apple is also selling the HW, but if they get enough vendors, make it competitive enough to take on Android and make it work on cheap enough phones (all within reason) I think it could definitely happen.
Based on the amount of expected growth in the smartphone market in 2011 and what I've seen from MS' redesign of WinMo7 I think it's possible. I don't think they'll beat Apple that year on unit sales and obviously not come close to revenue and profit as Apple is also selling the HW, but if they get enough vendors, make it competitive enough to take on Android and make it work on cheap enough phones (all within reason) I think it could definitely happen.
If the phones are free (subsidised), I think there is definitely a possibility to sell lots of them. Think about it, most people know Microsoft, so when going to buy a phone, and they have the choice between an Android (huh?) and a M$ (oh yeah, works great on my PC), then there is a good chance lots of people would go for it.
Though I don't like M$, I believe that the interface they presented looked rather polished, and compare to android, there is a good chance it will be appealing enough to the people mentioned above.
Windows Phone 7 will sell 3 million, 30 million is crazy. I will admit that I will be purchasing one during the holidays to give it a try on one of my lines.
Comments
If they paid people $100 to take their phone, I don't think they'd make their target.
I am not sure that they could GIVE AWAY that many phones (who would want them when compared to Android and iPhone??)!!!
At least one. And a stylus.
oh, well, if there is a stylus, then YES....this will indeed be a desired item for 30 million people!
Unrealistic target unless smartphone market expands 3-4 times faster than expected in 2011.
It'll save them a few monies off the grocery list.
If the carriers give one away with every purchase it is very easy to inflate numbers.
They can always just give the phones away. Not like it would be the first time that they throw money down a hole just to prop up reported unit sales figures.
Unfortunately, you can't compare the two launches.
Apple iPhone OS available on the Apple iPhone with one service provider in one country at initial launch.
Windows Mobile 7 available on how many phones with how many service providers in how many countries at launch?
If they don't sell 30 million phones in a year, I would call it an epic fail.
I agree with both. I imagine MSFT will get carriers to do the same as BlackBerry and many Android phones - buy one get one free. And doing so skewing their numbers. Also, as stated the iPhone is on one piece of hardware while WM7 will be on multiple carriers and launching globally I'm sure, so you can't compare sales numbers.
Yes, Microsoft and Apple can co-exist in my family
What I find amazing about this is not just the number itself, but the fact that they made a prediction at all. They didn't make a prediction about Zune sales until almost 6 months had gone by, and they knew how many they would sell, then they predicted that (very small) number. They never broke that number with all the succeeding generations, including the current one.
30 million is a number that I can only think was uttered in mistake. If they said 10 million, I would go along with it. They've got a chance at that. Smartphones sales are roaring, and 10 million in the first year from a product sourced from several manufacturers on a number of carriers around the world is attainable for a Microsoft product. There are enough people out there that could want that. Whether they will do it or not is something else, but it's a possibility. But 30 million is a stunning number. I can't help wondering how they came up with it.
there is no way windows phone 7 will outsell that amazing hotness known as "Kin". ha!
i don't think Ballmer has been right about anything since he predicted the iphone would flop in 2007. he was probably still wrong before 2007, but i wasnt paying attention then....lolz
oh, that pesky Mr. Ballmer. always good for a laugh!
there is no way windows phone 7 will outsell that amazing hotness known as "Kin". ha!
i don't think Ballmer has been right about anything since he predicted the iphone would flop in 2007. he was probably still wrong before 2007, but i wasnt paying attention then....lolz
Some have been wondering if the Kin is included in that number. They are both based on the same OS, in the rough. But I don't see the Kin as succeeding.
The problem is, they will have to sell 30 million in the next 2 years in order to be a viable competitor.
If they manage to sell 10 million in the first year, then they will be taken seriously. If sales are much below that, they will have big problems. But right now, Nokia is the most vulnerable, so there's room to grow marketshare there, and smartphone sales are growing by leaps and bounds.
With Palm out of the running for now at least, they have a shot of sorts.
But does it have a keyboard? Inquiring minds want to know!
At least one. And a stylus.
Don't forget the mandatory "Bing" button.. it is the killer button/feature
OMG..! OMG..!!
You guys, please don't give ideas to Steve Ballmer and Microsoft on what "iPhone-killer" features for the Windows Phone 7.. *
* note: sarcastic is intended in the sentence
Buy 1 winPhone 7 and get 3 for free.
..or, how about: Buy 1 Windows Phone 7, and get 7 for free..!
That should make the sales number look like Microsoft is moving Windows Phone 7 in very large numbers at the end of the year..
Hey, they did it too on Windows 7 launch promo.. Although they offered 7 stacks of beef in a burger for 7 days; the Windows 7 Whopper, but Microsoft can do better than that right..?
MS unlike Apple doesn't have hardware of their own. So,what that 30 million projection should say is that MS hopes that their hardware partners can crank out 30 million phones carrying the windows mobile 7 OS. Period.
That is the same misinterpreted info given when Android phones are talked about. Android and winmo mobile 7 are OSes sold by competing cell phone makers.
That is the right way of telling the story.
Based on the amount of expected growth in the smartphone market in 2011 and what I've seen from MS' redesign of WinMo7 I think it's possible. I don't think they'll beat Apple that year on unit sales and obviously not come close to revenue and profit as Apple is also selling the HW, but if they get enough vendors, make it competitive enough to take on Android and make it work on cheap enough phones (all within reason) I think it could definitely happen.
If the phones are free (subsidised), I think there is definitely a possibility to sell lots of them. Think about it, most people know Microsoft, so when going to buy a phone, and they have the choice between an Android (huh?) and a M$ (oh yeah, works great on my PC), then there is a good chance lots of people would go for it.
Though I don't like M$, I believe that the interface they presented looked rather polished, and compare to android, there is a good chance it will be appealing enough to the people mentioned above.
Windows Phone 7 will sell 3 million, 30 million is crazy. I will admit that I will be purchasing one during the holidays to give it a try on one of my lines.
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