According to IDC, the top 5 smartphone manufacturers are:
Nokia - 21.5 mil
RIM - 10.6 mil
Apple - 8.8 mil
HTC - 2.6 mil
Motorola - 2.3 mil
Total - 54.7 mil
If Microsoft sold 6 mil phones and we assume a zero sum game (which it's not), then Microsoft would need to capture 11% of today's smartphone market.
However, the report also states that the smartphone market is growing at 56.7% YoY. At this rate, the total market size in Q1 2011 will be 85.7 mil. Thus, Microsoft would only need to capture 7% of the Q1 2011 smartphone market.
In reality, the percentage of the market that Microsoft will need to grab in order to reach its 30 million target is likely to be even lower. Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season. The 2011 holiday season will be make or break for Microsoft.
Good post.
Do you have a link for the "Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season" ?
What's unclear to me: Is the Windows Phone 7 targeted at the consumer? At IT/Business? Both?
And... If successful in the Consumer space will that transfer to the IT/Business space?
I suspect that most consumers will choose a smart phone based on (after carrier) what goodies (content, social networking, apps, ecosystem. etc.) it delivers. Much of this is the antithesis of what attracts the IY/Business space).
The difference, of course, is that your post was suggesting that the Dell Windows 7 phones were already a reality and therefore Microsoft's projections were real.
In the real world, the Dell Windows 7 mobiles are no more real than Courier.
ISTM that everyone else in the thread knew what was being said.
But this topic (what I may have suggested) is not relevant, or on-topic, or interesting to anybody.
What's a subthread? Can I join, or better yet, ban it?
.
A subthread is a side-discussion which breaks off of the main thread. It is less easily identified and dealt with in these HTML fora, which often do not allow for properly threaded discussions.
NNTP clients usually allow you to killfile subthreads, but AFAIK, it cannot be done with the particular HTML forum package that AI uses.
Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!
I find this a complete non-issue, especially in a worldwide perspective. ?1, £1 etc. iPhones have been offered in Europe for 2 years now. And in much of the developing world, customers are paying full price upfront for their phones, that is $300 for the cheapest smartphone and $600++ for an iPhone.
Taking the US subsidized price as gospel is complete nonsense. This is a temporary local issue for Apple to solve in the US, where AT&T currently offers a $400 subsidy which is effectively blocking Apple from price drops. If they want to drop the iPhone price much lower than it is now, they have to persuade AT&T to drop their subsidy across all smartphones to say $200 and offer custumers cheaper monthly rates in return. Maybe introduce a $15 data plan with bandwidth cap, like on the iPad. Or something else. One will have to see how Apple plays it.
Please explain to me how AT&T's subsidy, regardless of the amount, would hinder Apple's ability to lower the price of an iPhone? I just can't follow your logic on this one.
I have worked in the games industry for 20+ years . While Playstation was ahead and I first heard Microsoft was bringing out a console I laughed so loud it hurt.
I was talking to one of the heads of Konami Europe at the time and we got into conversation regarding MS and the new console and he said to me that he had been speaking to MS about the XBOX and they told him there plan for domination of the console market, 1st gen was there (intro business model), 2nd gen(360) would put them in a good stead in the market and the 3rd gen(not out yet) would obliterate the competion. Is this becoming true from 9-10 years ago since the first model was introduced?
I guess the moral of this story is they have now got serious about smart phones and re-invested/re-shuffled various tech departments, they mean business with phones, and i'm absolutely positive they will succeed.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year.
Android fanboy much?
The rumors have been that WM7 will have multitasking that's on par with iPhone OS 1.0, not iPhone 4.0 or Android or Palm.
Quote:
Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.
Android has different multitasking than iPhone OS 4. Android multitasking is worse in some ways and only arguably better in other ways.
I realize you were making a joke but this brings up a very good point... Once upon a time the IT field staff were INCESSANTLY questioned about what to buy for home when it came to anything 'tech' oriented... Everyone in the workforce was VERY uneducated when it came to technology and the internet was something that I and a small handful of colleges where I worked had free rein over and the web wasn't even a glimmer in TBL's eye yet... Usenet traffic made up 80%+ of the internet backbone traffic maps (anyone remember those?).
Anyway... this is all OLD NEWS! Today, lots/most people have grown-up with computers and some can't even imagine doing school work or research without a laptop and a wifi connection and wouldn't know how to use a library card catalog if you paid em.
So sure once upon a time... Microsoft only really had to 'sell' themselves to the IT world and the drones regurgitated it back whenever they were asked what to buy.
This simply isn't true anymore... Microsoft has fallen off the map as a technological force to be reckoned with, a mover, a shaker, a driving force of the information age. Apple, Google, Yahoo, Facebook these are the names associated with our world today.
Sure, Microsoft can and will still have influence in the IT world but even that isn't what it once was...
MS is in a pretty bad place and are in DIRE need of an enormous makeover if they don't want to see themselves mover lower and lower on the list of companies that matter.
Comments
According to IDC, the top 5 smartphone manufacturers are:
Nokia - 21.5 mil
RIM - 10.6 mil
Apple - 8.8 mil
HTC - 2.6 mil
Motorola - 2.3 mil
Total - 54.7 mil
If Microsoft sold 6 mil phones and we assume a zero sum game (which it's not), then Microsoft would need to capture 11% of today's smartphone market.
However, the report also states that the smartphone market is growing at 56.7% YoY. At this rate, the total market size in Q1 2011 will be 85.7 mil. Thus, Microsoft would only need to capture 7% of the Q1 2011 smartphone market.
In reality, the percentage of the market that Microsoft will need to grab in order to reach its 30 million target is likely to be even lower. Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season. The 2011 holiday season will be make or break for Microsoft.
Good post.
Do you have a link for the "Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season" ?
What's unclear to me: Is the Windows Phone 7 targeted at the consumer? At IT/Business? Both?
And... If successful in the Consumer space will that transfer to the IT/Business space?
I suspect that most consumers will choose a smart phone based on (after carrier) what goodies (content, social networking, apps, ecosystem. etc.) it delivers. Much of this is the antithesis of what attracts the IY/Business space).
.
The difference, of course, is that your post was suggesting that the Dell Windows 7 phones were already a reality and therefore Microsoft's projections were real.
In the real world, the Dell Windows 7 mobiles are no more real than Courier.
ISTM that everyone else in the thread knew what was being said.
But this topic (what I may have suggested) is not relevant, or on-topic, or interesting to anybody.
Bye.
Nice chart! Do you have one that applies to the category we are discussing, smart phones?
.
I'm fairly certain charts like that exist.
But the remark I responded to was "... WP7 has potential, but there's no way that it will be anywhere near RIM, iPhone, Nokia, and Android in sales"
The chart shows sales for RIM, iPhone and Nokia.
I followed up the chart with comments about RIM, iPhone and Nokia sales.
The original comment, the chart, and the follow-up comment were all perfectly consistent.
Sorry about that.
What's a subthread? Can I join, or better yet, ban it?
.
A subthread is a side-discussion which breaks off of the main thread. It is less easily identified and dealt with in these HTML fora, which often do not allow for properly threaded discussions.
NNTP clients usually allow you to killfile subthreads, but AFAIK, it cannot be done with the particular HTML forum package that AI uses.
With only 7.7 million Android phones shipped in 2009 (roughly 10 different models) how on earth do Microsoft think they can ship 30 million?
never underestimate the power of the IT drones...
If monkey boy jumps around the stage with his sweaty underarms I'll buy one.
If I can "squirt" music at people, I'll buy two!
Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!
I find this a complete non-issue, especially in a worldwide perspective. ?1, £1 etc. iPhones have been offered in Europe for 2 years now. And in much of the developing world, customers are paying full price upfront for their phones, that is $300 for the cheapest smartphone and $600++ for an iPhone.
Taking the US subsidized price as gospel is complete nonsense. This is a temporary local issue for Apple to solve in the US, where AT&T currently offers a $400 subsidy which is effectively blocking Apple from price drops. If they want to drop the iPhone price much lower than it is now, they have to persuade AT&T to drop their subsidy across all smartphones to say $200 and offer custumers cheaper monthly rates in return. Maybe introduce a $15 data plan with bandwidth cap, like on the iPad. Or something else. One will have to see how Apple plays it.
Please explain to me how AT&T's subsidy, regardless of the amount, would hinder Apple's ability to lower the price of an iPhone? I just can't follow your logic on this one.
I think there is a decimal placement error. He meant 3.0 million.
must be a rounding error...
I was talking to one of the heads of Konami Europe at the time and we got into conversation regarding MS and the new console and he said to me that he had been speaking to MS about the XBOX and they told him there plan for domination of the console market, 1st gen was there (intro business model), 2nd gen(360) would put them in a good stead in the market and the 3rd gen(not out yet) would obliterate the competion. Is this becoming true from 9-10 years ago since the first model was introduced?
I guess the moral of this story is they have now got serious about smart phones and re-invested/re-shuffled various tech departments, they mean business with phones, and i'm absolutely positive they will succeed.
Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year.
Android fanboy much?
The rumors have been that WM7 will have multitasking that's on par with iPhone OS 1.0, not iPhone 4.0 or Android or Palm.
Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.
Android has different multitasking than iPhone OS 4. Android multitasking is worse in some ways and only arguably better in other ways.
I gather Palm OS has decent multi-tasking too.
In some ways it does not.
never underestimate the power of the IT drones...
I realize you were making a joke but this brings up a very good point... Once upon a time the IT field staff were INCESSANTLY questioned about what to buy for home when it came to anything 'tech' oriented... Everyone in the workforce was VERY uneducated when it came to technology and the internet was something that I and a small handful of colleges where I worked had free rein over and the web wasn't even a glimmer in TBL's eye yet... Usenet traffic made up 80%+ of the internet backbone traffic maps (anyone remember those?).
Anyway... this is all OLD NEWS! Today, lots/most people have grown-up with computers and some can't even imagine doing school work or research without a laptop and a wifi connection and wouldn't know how to use a library card catalog if you paid em.
So sure once upon a time... Microsoft only really had to 'sell' themselves to the IT world and the drones regurgitated it back whenever they were asked what to buy.
This simply isn't true anymore... Microsoft has fallen off the map as a technological force to be reckoned with, a mover, a shaker, a driving force of the information age. Apple, Google, Yahoo, Facebook these are the names associated with our world today.
Sure, Microsoft can and will still have influence in the IT world but even that isn't what it once was...
MS is in a pretty bad place and are in DIRE need of an enormous makeover if they don't want to see themselves mover lower and lower on the list of companies that matter.
If I can "squirt" music at people, I'll buy two!
I think the proper term is "ejaculate!"
.