Apple to enter a new golden age in 2010 with 70% earnings growth

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  • Reply 81 of 124
    lostkiwilostkiwi Posts: 640member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post


    lol. I can tell I like you already melgross.



    Yeah, I always imagined melgross to be a granddad figure - he keeps us all in line.

    Needs to be done too, I reckon. Or the place will turn into MR or *shudder* (the site that will not be named, but sounds like Mizgodo).
  • Reply 82 of 124
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,950member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...



    It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.



    Since most of the complexities in the tax code were put there at the request of special interests, it's a fair assumption that they would find a way to manipulate the system to their advantage just as much with consumption based taxes as income taxes. It's also the most completely regressive tax plan possible, and forces those with lower incomes to pay a higher percentage of their income, because they must spend a higher percentage to live, in taxes. Nothing could be further from the truth than, "Everyone pays the same share."



    A flat income tax isn't much better since, whatever the tax rate, it's still a bigger hit on those with lower incomes. I know that many people, for various reasons, don't like the idea of fair taxes, but a progressive income tax is the only fair tax, and, moving to that completely has certain automatic benefits, such as allowing people to live out their lives in dignity once they retire by removing most of their tax burden, instead of forcing them to sell their homes.



    Yes, yes, I know, many of you find your heads about to explode at the concept that a progressive income tax is fair, but it's a simple fact that the wealthy enjoy the benefits of living in a society to a greater extent that the less wealthy, so it's entirely fair that they pay more in taxes, especially since a lot of what government pays for is to build infrastructure that allows them to build wealth. Why should the poor have to subsidize the rich?
  • Reply 83 of 124
    maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member
    I was on Engadget the other week when the HTC EVO came out on some blogger said it was the end of the iphone!

    OMFG!!!!!

    Viva Apple!

    I got the iphone 4 last week.

    OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHH MYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY GOOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!!

    I LOVE THIS PHONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Reply 84 of 124
    Well, interesting article, and certainly projected future cashflows are looking good for Apple, but I felt that it lacked balance:



    a few things to caution the eager investor:

    1) Potential product recall or class action lawsuit on iPhone 4 signal issues (unlikely, but verdict is open at the moment)

    2) The fact that the share price of Apple may already be too high and may still correct downwards

    3) That if Steve Jobs was to pass, the share price would take an (unavoidable) plunge.

    4) Potential fed or european investigation into anti-competitiveness.

    5) Ongoing disputes on patents with Nokia and HTC.

    6) Ongoing improvement in penetration of android with Windows 7 launching at the end of the year.

    7) The fact that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance!



    You'll probably be okay with Apple stocks, but they're not as cheap and as much of a bargain as they used to be, and it's important to know the risks....
  • Reply 85 of 124
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tonkin View Post


    Once you get past the Ford ad:



    http://www.theonion.com/video/new-ap...e-to-ta,17693/



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    That was very good, I can (almost) see Apple doing that.



    Have you ever watched any of those "Home Shopping" channels on TV where the buyers/users call in?



    It seems those channels are really selling companionship and a friendly person to talk to with a sympathetic ear-- the merchandise is merely a means to this end.



    ... They should call them Apple Shrinks!



    .
  • Reply 86 of 124
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


    I agree: Apple should be held accountable.



    You do realize the costs and inconvenience associated with reverting to a previous phone.



    Caveat Emptor!



    .
  • Reply 87 of 124
    minderbinderminderbinder Posts: 1,703member
    Seriously, there weren't enough threads already about the iPhone that someone had to whine about it here as well?







    Shame, this is a very in depth article, would be nice to be able to discuss it without the thread getting completely hijacked. Mods?
  • Reply 88 of 124
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


    I placed my order on-line in the first few hours of availability and received it on my doorstep the day before the official release.



    It was not my intention to hijack the thread. I'm sorry for that. I only wish to keep this issue alive, because I don't believe Apple is doing right by customers.



    Not quite sure I understand that comment ... if you didn't intend to hijack this thread ... stick to the topic. There are other threads that are dedicated to iPhone antennae problems.



    Do you really think that Apple needs us to remind them, in every thread, of a problem that they are in the process of resolving? They never got to be #1 in most of the customer satisfaction surveys that I've seen by being indifferent to solving any real or perceived problems with any of their product.



    To continue to hijack every thread possible, intended or not, says a lot about your real intentions ... and as Martha would say ... that's not a good thing.
  • Reply 89 of 124
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.



    Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.



    After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?



    Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?



    A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?



    Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.



    Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?



    Andy, any ideas here?





    Advertising targeted to affluent qualified buyers!



    .
  • Reply 90 of 124
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pauldfullerton View Post


    Let's just hope all the MBA programs are putting together case studies that illustrate why Apple has been so successful. They could even distribute those case studies on an iPad!



    When a company gets to be a case study in an MBA program, you know it has peaked..... that would be time to sell.
  • Reply 91 of 124
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SwissMac2 View Post


    You have a serious issue understanding the simple principle of percentage when used for comparisons. If you compare 2010 with 2009, you use the 2009 figure as the base; if you compare 2009 with 2010, you use 2010 as the base. It is impossible for a change of 50% to be 50% in both directions.



    Say you earn $40,000 a year in 2009. You get a pay rise of 50% for 2010 taking you up to $60,000. Now the business says they're having a bad patch so you go onto half time working and indulge yourself in side projects. Your pay now goes down by 50%. Will your pay be the same as before your pay rise? No. 50% of $60,000 is $30,000, not $40,000. Unless you can't divide by 2 of course! \



    In 2009 you were earning one third less ie 33% less than after you received your 50% pay rise. Simples. jragosta was right.



    Mac



    The following is a quote from the article:



    "To get an idea of how deeply Apple continues to penetrate the market, last year the company produced 50% less in sales and over 71% less in earnings than it will this year. "



    This year is 2010 ... last year is 2009. In other words ...



    "To get an idea of how deeply Apple continues to penetrate the market, in 2009 the company produced 50% less in sales and over 71% less in earnings than it will in 2010." ....... (which means that it will take a 100% increase in 2009 sales to achieve 2010 prediction)





    2010 sales minus 50% sales equals 2009

    2010 earnings minus 71% equals 2009 earnings.





    While I'll admit that his way of stating is backwards ... his percentages are correct.



    Neither jragosta or you are right. ..... hint: If it appears to be wrong you may have misunderstood.
  • Reply 92 of 124
    berpberp Posts: 136member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post




    Conclusion: Apple chose form over function.



    Apple is fundamentally in the tech trade-off business. They overexpose wave reception limits for the end user's better management of the consequences; while boosting sensitivity to deal with cellular issues from the start, they make them more 'self-managed' by the user, and in the end, justly imputable to the pertinent cause.



    It is essentially what Apple does best: a user centric engineering awareness integrated into the design process, at the transient and negligible cost of 'some mountain out of a molehill' pundits 'hit count' whining fiesta.



    In fact, it's not at all unlike a serious blogging endeavor whereby clever and efficient Moderators manage informative, mis-informative and dis-informative inputs to breed better awareness of the sterile broadsides launched from ignorance.
  • Reply 93 of 124
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post


    Seriously, there weren't enough threads already about the iPhone that someone had to whine about it here as well?







    Shame, this is a very in depth article, would be nice to be able to discuss it without the thread getting completely hijacked. Mods?



    What do you do when the fire department sends an arsonist to the blaze?

    Check out the column length of off topic posts by a "mod" in this thread.
  • Reply 94 of 124
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?



    Rabbits out of hats, as I've been calling it. But to sustain earnings growth, each successive rabbit has to be bigger than the one before. So far, they've been able to pull off that extremely difficult trick. Apple's luck will run out eventually -- but not anytime soon if they can ride the iPhone and iPad wave for another couple of years.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post


    At least we've now entered a time where the market at least recognizes Apple as one the best stocks in the market. Even if it is still undervalued.



    Since the markets value companies every day, I have a hard time with the concept of declaring a stock to be under or overvalued. The markets may be unreasonably cautious about AAPL going forward (we agree on that), but I'm not sure I'm ready to jump on the undervalued boat because I know that this implies that the stock should be trading higher today based on current earnings and projected growth rates. The market psychology may not make any sense to us, but that doesn't change the market psychology. It's been this way forever, so it might be unreasonable to expect it to change drastically. This leads me to strongly suspect that AAPL's trailing P/E is unlikely to go higher than the mid 20s, unless market multiples broadly move higher (i.e., a bull market). I suspect a real bull market is a long way off.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post


    Look at that OUTRAGEOUS price to cash ration on Apple when it was trading in the low $100 range. It got even more compressed in the $80's. This was really the buy of the century. If we ever get a financial crisis like this again, I'm going All-In on Apple.



    I recall a time, not so long ago, when AAPL was trading at only slightly more than 1.0 times cash on hand. This meant the markets were valuing Apple's business and everything else they owned at nothing. Actually, less than nothing because the implication of that sort of valuation is that they're going start losing money very soon, and fast. That never happened of course, but the markets were certainly of that mind.



    The truth is, traders rarely take cash on hand into considering the value of a company (and rarely even debt, unless it's huge). I'm not so sure that the markets don't have that part right. What good is all that cash really, if it's not being used for capital investments? Since Apple can't use more than a tiny fraction of it for expansion, beyond the point where it cushions cash flow and keeps them out of the commercial paper market, it's really just so much green wallpaper. (And especially so since they refuse to give any of it back to the stockholders.)



    BTW, can we please leave the iPhone reception discussion out of here, and keep this thread on this topic? Thanks!
  • Reply 95 of 124
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post




    Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?




    I don't think it's absolutely necessary to continually have new product lines to have better than average growth. Remember, there are lots of areas in the world where Apple is nowhere near the top in their complete product line. I would think future success could be continued by concentration on what they have and where they are represented in the world marketplace .... being the best with a few items sure beats being average with many, IMHO. As well, we still don't know, with any degree of certainty, what the server farm is going to be used for.



    Too many products can dilute their efforts, I think ...... Just my 2¢.
  • Reply 96 of 124
    foo2foo2 Posts: 1,077member
    If you believe iPhone 4 signal reception is the greatest and the iPhone 4 antenna design is marvelous, then join me in calling for Apple to restore the Field Test Mode to iOS4 in the next update, so we can test and compare signal strength and signal attenuation across the entire iPhone product line. People shouldn't and needn't have to jump through hoops like Anandtech did to try to measure the attenuation.

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/3794/t...one-4-review/2
  • Reply 97 of 124
    foo2foo2 Posts: 1,077member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by newbee View Post


    Not quite sure I understand that comment ... if you didn't intend to hijack this thread ... stick to the topic.



    I only posted a tiny comment that elicited some remarks that warranted response.



    Quote:

    There are other threads that are dedicated to iPhone antennae problems.



    Few people read older threads any more--everybody had a real nice 4th of July and is ready to move on!--but the problem persists.



    Quote:

    Do you really think that Apple needs us to remind them, in every thread, of a problem that they are in the process of resolving?



    Yes, at least in some threads. If you believe most of the opinions on AI, Apple doesn't even have a problem. If you read Pogue, there doesn't seem to be a problem but there's certainly confusion.



    Quote:

    To continue to hijack every thread possible, intended or not, says a lot about your real intentions ... and as Martha would say ... that's not a good thing.



    If we are talking criminal activity, intentions and sensibility are the most important issues.



    I intend to bring this up in a few threads, not to hijack them, but simply to remind people the issue still exists. The hijacking will depend on everyone else.



    You know the person or person(s) who's always interjecting "Apple is DOOMED!"? Well, I've got some catching up to do.



    Let Apple know now that you want Field Test Mode restored to iOS 4.
  • Reply 98 of 124
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post


    lol. I can tell I like you already melgross.



    We all get hot at times. But this is unnecessary. It's a way of evading the issue.
  • Reply 99 of 124
    foo2foo2 Posts: 1,077member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    We all get hot at times. But this is unnecessary. It's a way of evading the issue.



    Yes, it's not like AI is a U.S. court of law. It's not about fairness and impartiality here.
  • Reply 100 of 124
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,600member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


    I thought I was quite clear, the manner in which the iPhone 4 is held in Apple's promo materials is precisely the "natural" way I've referenced. No, that's not the only "natural" way to hold it. It's a natural way, and it's not surprisingly the way Apple chose to have its hand models hold the phone. It's comfortable and relaxed.





    Huh? I just did explain, in the previous post. The death grip works really well in my office--where signal strength is not high but I've used previous models of iPhone just fine in years past--not just in some vale I pass through transiently on the way to work.



    Is it any wonder the blogs and geek sites are rife with noise on this issue? A few do seem to be properly skeptical of any software fix.



    Pogue demonstrates no understanding of the situation, just knowledge that many conflicting postings have been made about it. He even suggests Apple's 30-day return policy should be enough to mollify concerned customers, when there's far more involved in returning an iPhone than just Apple's return policy. How helpful is that? Why is he cited as an authority on this subject?



    Mossberg was befuddled as to how the iPhone 4, with its apparently better reception, was so much less reliable. What say you about that?





    If the bars are so meaningless (which I agree with), then why is Apple changing the formula for their display? It's all about changing expectations and IMHO distracting from the real issue. The problem is, if users hold a bare iPhone 4 in a natural manner (you know what I mean!), they'll maybe see zero bars and "No Service", when a 3GS held similarly could have made the call or sent/received the message. Pity.





    It's more of a problem for Apple, though, and a bigger problem for Apple than it was before. Cupping previous iPhone models was required to have a significant effect on reception. With the naked iPhone 4, just holding it normally can have a significant effect.





    While my results are not quantitative (other than seeing bars go from 4-5 to 0 and throughput go to 0), Anandtech's attenuation measurements are consistent with what I've seen, as are the early observations of Walt Mossberg's. If you've ever gone out with the iPhone 4 and not had it in a case, you've quite possibly experienced the same issue--and not even known it. Instead of panning the relevance of my experience, you should be trying your darnedest to understand how and when it happens.





    Oh, come on. Who isn't biased? In the case of anything to do with Apple, of course, you have millions more reasons than most people to be biased in certain directions. As a long time Apple customer, I have countless thousands of reasons to be biased in perhaps other directions. Why does this bother you so, when you're having the last laugh?



    I'with my daughter in her dentists office, using my iPad, so I'm not going to answer as thoughly as usual.



    I just want to briefly touch some of what you mentioned.



    I don't see why you think Pogue is any less knowledgable than Mossberg. Is it because he has no issue, and Mossberge did, when he tried it, that is?



    As for my being biased, well, you don't know much about people. When the iPad first came out, I said that 256 MB RAM was too little. I was roundly jeered by those who said that if Apple used 256, then 256 was obviously enough, and that I was anti-Apple.



    I then said that Apple made a mistake for not including a full USB2 port. Again I was jeered. Same thing for an SD slot. It's funny you would say I'm biased in favor of Apple because of my stock, but others are saying I'm anti-Apple every time I say they done something wrong, which is often enough.



    Because I have a fair amount of stock I want to see Apple doing the rignt thing, which is why I've said that Apple made a mistake here. But this is not S big a mistake as you are saying. If Apple makes a big mistake, it hurts the stock. We can't conceal that.



    You REALLY don't know me at all!
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