CES: Analysts grow skeptical of iPad competitors due to iTunes
Two analysts monitoring the tablet extravaganza at CES have issued reports indicating that euphoria about new tablets outside of Apple's iPad may fall short of expectations because those products lack the iPad's extensive App Store software library and access to the wide range of media in the "digital ecosystem" of iTunes.
iPad may dominate tablets as iPod did MP3 players
Shaw Wu, Senior Research Analyst at Kaufman Bros, wrote in a note that after "investor meetings with the managements of Lenovo, HP, Synaptics and Toshiba at the CES trade show in Las Vegas," and having spent some time with product and marketing specialists at Samsung and Motorola Mobility, his firm has concluded that "tablets expectations may prove too high."
"One of the key focuses at the show is of course tablets," Wu wrote, "with many trying to come up with an answer to the strong selling iPad. This may sound controversial, but we are concerned that expectations may be set too high by market research firms with aggressive forecasts."
Wu noted that "we are not convinced that tablets outside of the iPad will see high volume success. The reason is that we believe success is dependent on: 1) the number and quality of apps and 2) a rich content library including music, movies, TV shows, e-books, podcasts and photos, such as that offered and managed by iTunes. To us, the iPad appears similar to the iPod business where one vendor (that being Apple) is likely to end up dominating the space."
Toshiba joining tablet, app store bandwagon
In the same report, Wu noted that Toshiba will be bringing an Android tablet to market "using similar components to the Motorola Xoom including Android 3.0 Honeycomb software and a Tegra 2 processor and is on track to launch in the Spring."
The company told Kaufman Bros. that "its strength in the channel could prove to be a key differentiator in doing better in tablets relative to competitors." The report added that Toshiba "sees a strategy toward driving a universal app store across its PC, tablet, and TV business which we believe could be a key differentiator."
An Android site reported in November that Toshiba would be launching an Android Appstore with Handster, an online website that has been selling Windows Mobile, Java, Symbian, BlackBerry and Android apps. It published an email from Handster to its Android developer mailing list, saying, "Do you have any new PAID apps that are not published in your Handster account yet? Please let me know if you wish to submit your paid apps for Toshiba appstore. You can login to your Handster account and upload paid apps. Or you can also send APK files for paid apps to me in ZIP and I will add them to your account."
Toshiba currently operates "AppPlace," which offers "cloud based" (web) apps for Toshiba PC users which are sold on a subscription basis $5 to $10 per month. The company also opened a Windows CE app store for its JournE Touch web tablet in October 2009, but it appears it has since been shut down along with Microsoft's Windows CE as a tablet platform.
Motorola Xoom "reasonable," but lacks iTunes, Apple experience
Brian White, the Senior Research Analyst at Ticonderoga Securities, said that Motorola's new Xoom (below), unveiled at CES, "seemed reasonable to us but wasn't our cup of tea as we still favor Apple's iPad and look forward to the second generation."
White noted that "the 10.1 inch (vs. 9.7 inch for iPad) Xoom will include the new Android 3.0 Honeycomb operating system (vs. iOS 4.2 for iPad) and 1GHz Nvidia Tegra 2 dual core processor (vs. A4 1 GHz for iPad). Keep in mind, we expect the second generation iPad to be released in March/April with enhanced features and performance."
Echoing Wu's comments, White wrote, "as we talk through CES and analyzed the various tablets, we are reminded that one of the most attractive features of the iPad is the seamless connection within Apple's digital ecosystem that extends across devices, combined with Apple's focus on aesthetics. Competitors will try to replicate Apple's ecosystem but we believe most will fail to provide the Apple experience."
PlayBook demo wows Mike Abramsky, Wu not sold
A third note, by RBC Capital Markets's Mike Abramsky, did make favorable mention of RIM's new PlayBook (below), noting that in a demo, "PlayBook is simultaneously running multiple processor-intensive apps like a Quake 3D game, HD video playback, web browsing, and several 3D demos, with no loss of fidelity.
"This desktop-like performance is possible due to PlayBook's QNX-based OS and architecture, and may be difficult for iOS and Android to duplicate," he stated.
While the PlayBook isn't yet finished, performance hasn't been the main target of its doubters. Instead, Apple's chief executive Steve Jobs has criticized competitors' decisions to use 7 inch screens in their attempts to match Apple on price, while analysts, including Wu, have warned of engineering problems including "relatively poor battery life of a few hours," which he blamed on the PlayBook's OS.
"QNX wasn't originally designed for mobile environments," Wu stated, adding that that developers are "questioning the wisdom" of RIM maintaining two operating systems, BlackBerry OS 6 and QNX.
RIM denied experiencing any engineering problems, saying that it "is on track with its schedule to optimize the BlackBerry PlayBook?s battery life and looks forward to providing customers with a professional grade tablet that offers superior performance with comparable battery life.?
The company's co chief executive Jim Balsillie recently touted the PlayBook as "way ahead" of the iPad. "I think the PlayBook redefines what a tablet should do," Balsillie said, asserting that the tablet's redefinition involves the web, not apps.
Earlier this week, Wu again repeated that the PlayBook would be unlikely to match the iPad's ten hour battery unless it added a larger battery.
Wu noted that Apple engineers its own battery chemistry and designs many of its own semiconductors, allowing for power optimization that competitors like RIM cannot yet compete with. Wu also noted the PlayBook's inclusion of Adobe Flash, which he said could be a major factor in the battery life of the PlayBook.
iPad may dominate tablets as iPod did MP3 players
Shaw Wu, Senior Research Analyst at Kaufman Bros, wrote in a note that after "investor meetings with the managements of Lenovo, HP, Synaptics and Toshiba at the CES trade show in Las Vegas," and having spent some time with product and marketing specialists at Samsung and Motorola Mobility, his firm has concluded that "tablets expectations may prove too high."
"One of the key focuses at the show is of course tablets," Wu wrote, "with many trying to come up with an answer to the strong selling iPad. This may sound controversial, but we are concerned that expectations may be set too high by market research firms with aggressive forecasts."
Wu noted that "we are not convinced that tablets outside of the iPad will see high volume success. The reason is that we believe success is dependent on: 1) the number and quality of apps and 2) a rich content library including music, movies, TV shows, e-books, podcasts and photos, such as that offered and managed by iTunes. To us, the iPad appears similar to the iPod business where one vendor (that being Apple) is likely to end up dominating the space."
Toshiba joining tablet, app store bandwagon
In the same report, Wu noted that Toshiba will be bringing an Android tablet to market "using similar components to the Motorola Xoom including Android 3.0 Honeycomb software and a Tegra 2 processor and is on track to launch in the Spring."
The company told Kaufman Bros. that "its strength in the channel could prove to be a key differentiator in doing better in tablets relative to competitors." The report added that Toshiba "sees a strategy toward driving a universal app store across its PC, tablet, and TV business which we believe could be a key differentiator."
An Android site reported in November that Toshiba would be launching an Android Appstore with Handster, an online website that has been selling Windows Mobile, Java, Symbian, BlackBerry and Android apps. It published an email from Handster to its Android developer mailing list, saying, "Do you have any new PAID apps that are not published in your Handster account yet? Please let me know if you wish to submit your paid apps for Toshiba appstore. You can login to your Handster account and upload paid apps. Or you can also send APK files for paid apps to me in ZIP and I will add them to your account."
Toshiba currently operates "AppPlace," which offers "cloud based" (web) apps for Toshiba PC users which are sold on a subscription basis $5 to $10 per month. The company also opened a Windows CE app store for its JournE Touch web tablet in October 2009, but it appears it has since been shut down along with Microsoft's Windows CE as a tablet platform.
Motorola Xoom "reasonable," but lacks iTunes, Apple experience
Brian White, the Senior Research Analyst at Ticonderoga Securities, said that Motorola's new Xoom (below), unveiled at CES, "seemed reasonable to us but wasn't our cup of tea as we still favor Apple's iPad and look forward to the second generation."
White noted that "the 10.1 inch (vs. 9.7 inch for iPad) Xoom will include the new Android 3.0 Honeycomb operating system (vs. iOS 4.2 for iPad) and 1GHz Nvidia Tegra 2 dual core processor (vs. A4 1 GHz for iPad). Keep in mind, we expect the second generation iPad to be released in March/April with enhanced features and performance."
Echoing Wu's comments, White wrote, "as we talk through CES and analyzed the various tablets, we are reminded that one of the most attractive features of the iPad is the seamless connection within Apple's digital ecosystem that extends across devices, combined with Apple's focus on aesthetics. Competitors will try to replicate Apple's ecosystem but we believe most will fail to provide the Apple experience."
PlayBook demo wows Mike Abramsky, Wu not sold
A third note, by RBC Capital Markets's Mike Abramsky, did make favorable mention of RIM's new PlayBook (below), noting that in a demo, "PlayBook is simultaneously running multiple processor-intensive apps like a Quake 3D game, HD video playback, web browsing, and several 3D demos, with no loss of fidelity.
"This desktop-like performance is possible due to PlayBook's QNX-based OS and architecture, and may be difficult for iOS and Android to duplicate," he stated.
While the PlayBook isn't yet finished, performance hasn't been the main target of its doubters. Instead, Apple's chief executive Steve Jobs has criticized competitors' decisions to use 7 inch screens in their attempts to match Apple on price, while analysts, including Wu, have warned of engineering problems including "relatively poor battery life of a few hours," which he blamed on the PlayBook's OS.
"QNX wasn't originally designed for mobile environments," Wu stated, adding that that developers are "questioning the wisdom" of RIM maintaining two operating systems, BlackBerry OS 6 and QNX.
RIM denied experiencing any engineering problems, saying that it "is on track with its schedule to optimize the BlackBerry PlayBook?s battery life and looks forward to providing customers with a professional grade tablet that offers superior performance with comparable battery life.?
The company's co chief executive Jim Balsillie recently touted the PlayBook as "way ahead" of the iPad. "I think the PlayBook redefines what a tablet should do," Balsillie said, asserting that the tablet's redefinition involves the web, not apps.
Earlier this week, Wu again repeated that the PlayBook would be unlikely to match the iPad's ten hour battery unless it added a larger battery.
Wu noted that Apple engineers its own battery chemistry and designs many of its own semiconductors, allowing for power optimization that competitors like RIM cannot yet compete with. Wu also noted the PlayBook's inclusion of Adobe Flash, which he said could be a major factor in the battery life of the PlayBook.
Comments
Personally I think a little too much is made of the whole "iTunes ecosystem". For me, the iPod utterly dominated the MP3 player market because it was such a nice piece of kit by itself. I ever saw any MP3 that came close to the iPod in terms of ease of use and design asthetics.
I think the iPad may prove to be the same. Sure iTunes makes putting things onto it pretty simple, but personally I only connect to the computer once every month or so, and the rest of the time I use it as is. It's the wonderful simplicity of the device itself that sets it apart.
That's an interesting read.
Personally I think a little too much is made of the whole "iTunes ecosystem". For me, the iPod utterly dominated the MP3 player market because it was such a nice piece of kit by itself. I ever saw any MP3 that came close to the iPod in terms of ease of use and design asthetics.
I think the iPad may prove to be the same. Sure iTunes makes putting things onto it pretty simple, but personally I only connect to the computer once every month or so, and the rest of the time I use it as is. It's the wonderful simplicity of the device itself that sets it apart.
Yes, but the point is that every app you install, whether connecting to your computer is done with your iTunes account.
?The PlayBook?s 7 inch screen is just 45% as large as the iPad? yet it still has over 78% of the pixels. So like the iPhone 4, it is much clearer and sharper.
btw: I think Xoom is a fantastic, almost magical name for a now-you-see-it, now-you-don't product!
Android tablet vendors are already caught in a race to the bottom--a trend highlighted by Android tablets nearing the $100 mark--which indicates that vendors will have to innovate on the service layer to effectively compete. And they have a steep hill to climb, considering the work Apple has already done on the service layer (think iTunes and App Store).
http://www.fiercewireless.com/cesliv...utm_source=rss
It will be the complete package that determines success and although some of the tablets announced at CES will find a niche most wil be as they say DOA.
But with so many variations and competitors it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
... it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out.
And with all the competitors finally getting ready to hit the streets, our long wait for play to begin may be nearing an end. It's kind of like enduring the pre-game festivities while waiting for the kickoff in the Super Bowl.
Given the sort of "journalism" AI is known for, the absence of a byline may be at the author's request.
whoop thar it is: Daniel Eran Dilger
And for the record this is not journalism bucko - it's a blog. A highly informed and linked-in blog but a blog nonetheless. And as such doesn't need to conform to what ever you were taught in Journalism 101 is the credo of journalism in term of objectivity or what-have-you.
As a blog they do a pretty decent job, despite detractors with false expectations or unrealistic standards.
We all drive cars, they all use gas, we all know where our local gas stations are, and we all know how to find them when traveling. We all agree there are better methods of getting around and there are less evil fuels like electric and propane or natural gas or even hydrogen.
There has been many attempts to bring out any one of these solutions however they all failed or lack real success, why, not because they did not work, they failed because there is no real infrastructure around those solutions.
This is what we are dealing with here, Apple have put in place the infrastructure to support their products and guess what no one else has the knowledge, ability, willingness or what ever the reason to create the same support. Yes people will buy these product give them a spin around the block and then decide it not work the effort to be different or use the others guys products.
Unless someone comes out with a solution where all android, Mobile 7 or QNX can come and park and get full service, one stop shopping, only the real geek with nothing else better to do with buy and keep using these products.
Unless someone comes out with a solution where all android, Mobile 7 or QNX can come and park and get full service, one stop shopping, only the real geek with nothing else better to do with buy and keep using these products.
Yeah, although anything can happen, I sort of felt the same way. If someone came up with an overarching store for all that is mobile, a one-stop for anyone's phone/pad regardless the operating system, they'd have a slam-dunk. Right now it's becoming simpler and simpler to just use the Apple ecosystem, and since they have a toe in most of the individual tech I would want, it's just so much more convenient (and fail-safe). And I have no problem going elsewhere or finding things all over, it's just easier to get 90% from one place. Easy is good for me.
Yeah, although anything can happen, I sort of felt the same way. If someone came up with an overarching store for all that is mobile, a one-stop for anyone's phone/pad regardless the operating system, they'd have a slam-dunk. Right now it's becoming simpler and simpler to just use the Apple ecosystem, and since they have a toe in most of the individual tech I would want, it's just so much more convenient (and fail-safe). And I have no problem going elsewhere or finding things all over, it's just easier to get 90% from one place. Easy is good for me.
I think that's what Amazon is doing with their app market. Amazon could be the eco-system for all non-Apple devices. That's when things would get interesting. The question is whether Google/Microsoft/HP/etc and Amazon can play nice.
I think that's what Amazon is doing with their app market. Amazon could be the eco-system for all non-Apple devices. That's when things would get interesting. The question is whether Google/Microsoft/HP/etc and Amazon can play nice.
Yeah, we'll see if that happens. Not so much in the past, so I'm not holding my breath, even if it mattered to me. Amazon has a rough road ahead to be the gateway for all of those companies.
I think that's what Amazon is doing with their app market. Amazon could be the eco-system for all non-Apple devices. That's when things would get interesting. The question is whether Google/Microsoft/HP/etc and Amazon can play nice.
As they all stagger around with knives in their respective backs ...
I didn't like the iTunes "walled garden", but I am looking forward to an iPad 2 or Droid Xoom, and will go back to iTunes if the Andoid Market doesn't have sufficient quality filter for the APPS sold there.
In either case I buy few songs and get them through Amazon (eBooks through Amazon, too), and even fewer movies, and I imagine using a Netflix Streaming account for that. I still see Xoom and iPad 2 as a tie, and may just buy whichever is available first.
In related news, RIM resurrects BeOS to launch their own desktop OS so they can develop an iTunes killer, dubbed "BlackTunes."
I think that's a load of BeOS
Less than two years ago, Abramsky saw apple as worth no more than $70 a share; and his company RBC (which is Canadian) is heavily invested in RIM, of course he thinks it's a great product