Analyst: Android US smartphone share drop to continue

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 75
    This is gonna sound a bit fanboyish, but I do think that a greater percentage of Android customers are not loyal or actively seeking out an Android phone. The platform has its strengths, but I think people just simply get them because:

    -they don't have a choice; it's what their carrier has

    -it's cheap

    -they go down to the store every 2 years and pick the one that looks cool



    This demographic would probably include both of my parents and my girlfriend (before I "converted" her). Obviously there are genuine fans of the Android platform and that's great. But I think marketshare/installed base don't really capture the STRENGTH of a platform - just how widespread it is. Loyalty, brand awareness, customer satisfaction, usage, app attachment rate, app store profitability, etc. are all stronger on the iOS platform.



    Even if I weren't a reader of AppleInsider, I would probably favor iOS in the long term. Whether that means a 15% market share or a 50% marketshare I honestly couldn't care less. Give me the BEST platform, not the biggest...
  • Reply 42 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by poke View Post


    I think every even remotely intelligent person has known for a long time that the iPhone was constrained in the US by only being on one carrier and expected it to regain share from Android once it was on Verizon. The iPhone is still constrained by being on fewer carriers than Android, both in the US and globally.



    I agree to the logic, but everyone and their mothers were like 'meh' when the huge lines to buy the Ver-i-phone never materialized. Of course, there's online purchasing though...





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by poke View Post


    When Samsung released the original Galaxy Tab they said it was going to be on 500 carriers in 120+ countries. RIM makes similar claims. I believe the iPhone is only on around 200 carriers in under 100 countries (I think it was 80-something countries at last count). They're missing some significant markets.



    Tell me about it: Japan. The other day I met a friend of my boss who now works at Samsung. She was all like "You'll see, now it's gonna flip in favor of Android, we're unstoppable".



    (First)About (Middle)F. (Last)Time is here name, I guess. It took like, How many manufacturers, how many models?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by poke View Post


    Apple is a relative newcomer whereas Android is being used by established players who had existing relationships with carriers, so this is to be expected. They're also trying to do something different (i.e., sell primarily through their own retail channels using their own marketing) whereas Android fits neatly into the existing model where you choose a carrier and they give you a choice of phone. So they're going against the grain. But they're continually making progress and that's what we're seeing. Android doesn't appear to be slowing them down.



    All in all, iOS is doing great considering Apple is only one manufacturer.
  • Reply 43 of 75
    macrulezmacrulez Posts: 2,455member
    deleted
  • Reply 44 of 75
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,604member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Indeed - that's a better way to put it. But I'm really thinking about the 'imminent refresh' part - if you look at iPhone sales they have historically slumped in the months before a refresh as consumers wait. Clearly not this time.



    This may be a function of the "maturity curve." When a new product category such as the iPhone is still young, the first two or three generations represent major changes. As it approaches maturity, the changes with each generation tend to be more incremental. So now, people are less willing to defer instant gratification in order capture a small bump in functionality by waiting for the next model. This phenomenon is even more pronounced with iOS devices because of Apple's custom of making new OS versions backward compatible, giving many functions of the latest phone to the older models.
  • Reply 45 of 75
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,604member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


    But even a lone analyst can be lauded here if he tows the party line.



    Good post. But I was especially tickled by this line. Don't know how to categorize it--kind of a homonymal spoonerism? It's rich because a drawn line can be toed, and a rope line can be towed. The ambiguity of the word "line" makes this work. And of course you also injected a third meaning of line in the sense of political orthodoxy. Very rich and dense wordplay indeed. Love it.
  • Reply 46 of 75
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    I've seen this homonymal metaphor shift before. '"Toe" is losing out because it references the obsolete activity of going outside and running races or playing other ancient games with the legs. If we used the alternate "toe the mark" instead, which I think is more British, we would have to figure out some kind of mark to tow. Then where would we be? Dragging carnival visitors into tents?
  • Reply 47 of 75
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post


    Whenever a single analyst presents an outlying view, if it's unfavorable to Apple that's called out and the data is dismissed.



    But even a lone analyst can be lauded here if he tows the party line.



    You're mischaracterizing the nature of the debate. I haven't seen anybody here cheering about IDCs predictions per-se, IDC has a lousy reptuation as a predictor of future trends. This graph however shows past data, it's not a projection - it's right now - so that's news.



    Now the tiny drop in androids share is probably not relevant, honestly fluctuations in smartphone share are to be expected because the market is growing so damned fast, but what is impressive is Apple improving their share position this late in the product cycle. That is something very very unusual and it's not just a statistical blip, or if it is multiple research agencies are blipping - because it matches what we saw from comscore.



    Year old models aren't supposed to outsell brand new models in the handset busines, so either iOS users have completely stopped caring about buying recent hardware, which would be remarkable - or there is considerable pent up demand for iPhone-5 and their sales will be completely supply constrained when it launches - which would also be pretty remarkable.



    Either way something interesting is going on.
  • Reply 48 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacRulez View Post




    In the meantime we can enjoy another double standard here in the AI forums:



    Whenever a single analyst presents an outlying view, if it's unfavorable to Apple that's called out and the data is dismissed.



    But even a lone analyst can be lauded here if he tows the party line.



    Good stuff. Love this board. More fun than watching Bill O'Reilly discuss macroeconomics.



    We see things as we want to see them.



    For instance... I see no double standard... most forum members are very consistent in their views and present strong arguments to bolster those views and only someone wishing to twist their meaning could imply a double standard... while, at the same time, it is true, a few members will come out on the side of Apple no matter what is presented but that does not necessarily indicate a double standard.



    For you to say that there is a double standard on AI is to imply that you have a double standard and I'm almost positive that you wouldn't say that about yourself.
  • Reply 49 of 75
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    For you to say that there is a double standard on AI is to imply that you have a double standard and I'm almost positive that you wouldn't say that about yourself.



    Hmm- that's confusing because anybody who had a double-standard probably wouldn't say that they had a double-standard even as they criticized others for double-standards. They would likely have a double-standard about double-standards - is that a quadruple standard or triple?.
  • Reply 50 of 75
    cmf2cmf2 Posts: 1,427member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ranReloaded View Post


    This is an awkward moment... The android fans definitely can't celebrate this, and the Apple fans can't say 'Told ya'! after the repeated argument of why Apple doesn't care about market share. Time for RIM to cheer up?



    Not that awkward



    When an operating system that's available to third party manufacturers makes market share gains, it's not that impressive. It just a lot of manufacturers collectively selling a lot of phones.



    When an OS with a single company (and basically a single phone model) responsible for all its hardware sales makes market share gains, it's very impressive.



    Googles business model is mass market, get Android on a lot of phones at any price point and sell a lot of ads.



    Apple's business model is to sell a lot of iPhones, at a profit, which they've always done. The iPhone is by far the best selling smartphone model (and I believe best selling phone as well). Their goal, if anything, isn't market share, but profit share and they dominate that market. They sell one phone, and they sell a lot of them.



    Lastly, market share isn't that relevant in an expanding market. Despite Androids drop, I suspect they still showed growth in unit sales of Android phones.
  • Reply 51 of 75
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,604member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


    If we used the alternate "toe the mark" instead, which I think is more British, we would have to figure out some kind of mark to tow. Then where would we be? Dragging carnival visitors into tents?



    Cute!
  • Reply 52 of 75
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member
    Verizon was Android's last safe haven. Two things are keeping VZ subscribers from switching to iPhone 4 en masse: 1. many of them are still on contract and don't want to pay the early termination fee, and 2. some of those who can switch without penalty are waiting for iPhone 4S (or iPhone 5 or whatever its going to be called.)



    Within a year or two iPhone should have roughly the same share on VZ that it enjoys on AT&T. That's 60%.
  • Reply 53 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    I saw better looking graphs from Quattro Pro in 1992.



    I know...looks like it was made in MS Publisher! Ugh! Get a copy of Pages and make those graphs shine!





    Best
  • Reply 54 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Cambo View Post


    Perfect. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of corrupt, insidious ***holes.



    Remember Windoze 98? I do...and ME, and 2000, and Vista...



    May the plummet continue.



    Cheers,

    Cameron



    I certainly do...I bought '98 and had a devil of a time (down for 2 days) upgrading from '95. Bought Me, what a waste. And bought 2000 for its stability, it was OK. Then went back to Apple and never looked back!
  • Reply 55 of 75
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post


    I've seen this homonymal metaphor shift before. '"Toe" is losing out because it references the obsolete activity of going outside and running races or playing other ancient games with the legs. If we used the alternate "toe the mark" instead, which I think is more British, we would have to figure out some kind of mark to tow. Then where would we be? Dragging carnival visitors into tents?



    Nope, we in Britain 'toe the line', which isn't surprising seeing as we invented the phrase.
  • Reply 56 of 75
    nondualnondual Posts: 78member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by robogobo View Post


    I'm not surprised. Of course the masses went out and bought the cheap/free model first, also satisfied that they were bucking the trend, and then learned what a piece of junk and compromised experience they were getting. Now they're more willing to see what all the fuss is about.



    That, and new availability on everyone's favorite network.



    There's also the fact that not many people purchase anything on Android. My friend's got a Droid (he got tired of waiting for the iPhone on Verizon). I don't think he's purchased a single app - he only downloads free stuff. That might be just fine for him.



    However, iPhone users much more typically buy apps for the iOS - and this causes a certain investment in the platform that Android is less likely to inspire. IMHO.
  • Reply 57 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    The best part is the second graph of this article has US and Rest Of The World using the same symbols!



    Haha, omg, how did I not notice that?? Oh wait, that's because it's a terrible chart! lol ; ) (I still love you, AppleInsider)
  • Reply 58 of 75
    joseph ljoseph l Posts: 197member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Apple's share right now at the end of their iPhone's 4 life cycle is the same as it was in mid-2008 at the start of their iPhone-3 life-cycle. At this rate they'll be 40% in the US once the next model launches.



    "At this rate" it will bounce between 20% and 30%, just like it has since 1998. That is the current "Rate". There are no strong trend lines that I see which argue against that.
  • Reply 59 of 75
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,685member
    The trend line is up in the last few quarters. This has already been mentioned: Android manufacturers have been coming out with phones all year, Apple competing with a 12 month old model and a 2 year old model - each individually outselling any specific Android phone.



    The 3GS is available only on one carrier. with more carriers and phones Apple can surely get 10% more market share
  • Reply 60 of 75
    joseph ljoseph l Posts: 197member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nondual View Post


    There's also the fact that not many people purchase anything on Android.





    If that were true, why would an experienced retailer like Amazon introduce an entirely new store just for Android Apps? They seem to think that a substantial amount of revenue is spent on Android Apps.



    Do you know more about making money online than Amazon.com?
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