I like this sort of prediction. I think that , as usual, reality will go beyond fiction. When threatened, formerly dominant companies like Microsoft are prone to desperate moves ... which dig their own grave. I think it will be fun to watch, really ...
I think Microsoft will price the surface with a very low margin to grab market share. They now want Apple's model of selling the software and the hardware. I don't think they care about their "Partners" anymore. For now, most of their "Partners" have no choice with regard to an Operating System anyway.
Maybe this can be applied to the Enterprise as well. Tell corporations they have one year to adopt Windows 8 or be left behind with support. Windows 7 will be sold for another year at a premium price to Windows 8 and only be supported for one year after that. XP users will cease to exist for MS. No security updates, no service packs, no discounted tech support etc. Where are corporations going to go? Buy all new hardware using Apple? No! Moved everyone to Ubuntu? No!. Just like the OEM's, they have no where else to go.
Microsoft is creating a very nice eco system, if they get a long term vision and not starting to make the windows 8 app signature bullshit and so on, maybe they have a chance, right now Android is the King, Apple is slowly loosing to Google, and the new OS Mountain Lion don't give much to already called Mac OS X Vista - Lion.
About the prices Microsoft has an advantage here, since Apple only knows expensive word, and Microsoft is know to Make 10 versions of the "same" operating system, so that will be the same with tablets, since Nokia will sell Windows 8 Tablets!!
I do think we are always thinking Apple is the best and greatest, but if we see the last numbers, stock markets and iPhones/Macs sell, things are not looking so good as once did.
I`d love to see MS do well with this hardware but I have no clue where you are getting these "numbers" of which you speak.
There isn`t an Android tablet that has ever looked like it might try to compete with an iPad.
The vast majority of Android phones are running on crap hardware with outdated OS's that will never see an update.
Quite honestly I haven`t seen an Android OS that could compete with iOS in stability in it`s entire history (I`m fluent in both OS's) perhaps until ICS came out...maybe.
C'mon, guys - we aren't comparing apples and oranges here...
Possibly more like Apples and DogTurds, time will tell.
But the simple fact is, the iPad is a device, the Surface will be a computer, in tablet form (at least according to MS).
Not designed for quite the same things, not capable of quite the same things. And I think that Apple, even while it makes its device a little more "computeresque" with each upgrade, has proven that there is a huge market for just what the iPad does.
I also think that, mostly for that reason, MS's only real opportunity here is to sell it like this:
WE did what Apple couldn't do! We made a computer in the most accessible, portable form there is!
If they can float that, they might sell a few...dozen.
[...] So does Microsoft want to upset their entire current business model on the off chance they can even compete in mobile if they try, or are they content to watch as Apple continues to dominate and pulls users away from the desktop at an increasing rate? No real guaranteed win in there for Microsoft in any case. [...]
Perfectly stated. It's as if Microsoft is just going through the motions of entering the pad computing market in earnest. Without the actual earnestness. Because pad computing can and will cut into their bread and butter Windows + Office legacy desktop computing profits.
PC Era: expensive software, generic low-margin hardware.
Microsoft is trying to have it both ways. Trying to drag expensive PC era software into the post-PC era. They want to charge their pad computing OEMs (if there are any left) $85 per copy of Windows RT. Hoping that it will fail, so they can try (for what, the third time already?) to cram "no compromises" Windows into yet another pad computer. The only differences between Surface and the HP Slate 500 being 1) no stylus, and 2) 1" bigger screen.
Only 9,000 or so HP Slate 500s have been sold since October 2010. Rounding error-sized numbers.
Good luck with Slate 2.0, Ballmer. Let's see if you beat that 9,000 number by summer 2014.
Exactly... the model was buy the cheapest PC to run the apps you need, which cost over $130 base (Windows+Office)
The iPad is get the the most memory you can afford at the connectivity level you require. Apps are free or really cheap (OS is 'free', most apps are free, and the 'office' apps are... $30)
This kills the OEMs for their only differentiator is price, which is a function of quality in their game.
I run a $500 quad core 3 Ghz desktop. I guess I'm to cheap to pay $2,000+ for something comparable from Apple.
Apple is just not competive in the desktop market so the smart (not cheap) money is with Windows whether you like it or not.
That said there is no way I would use a Surface as a desktop it would be just too underpowered. The only justification for tablets and reasonably priced(<$2000) laptops is portability. Apple is very competive in that market.
Apple will need to step up its game if it wants to compete with the Surface Pro. It should consider attaching a keyboard to the iPad, allow it to run a full desktop OS (OS X maybe?), provide USB and miniDisplay ports, a trackpad, and a swivel-like display. They should give it a name that connotes light weight, such as Oxygen or Feather, maybe even Air.
You had me going for it at first, I was suckered in with the troll mask on.
There is a marked difference between software written for mouse interface gestures (click, drag, right click etc ), and touchscreen gestures (pinch, rotate, swipe etc).
Unless software has been specifically written for a touch interface it won't work on it.
There is a very good reason why Apple's macbook series don't have touchscreens!
Microsoft is letting people believe that they can put a full OS 8 on a tablet and everyone will be able to use it for work.
They need to have some big software names (Adobe, Autodesk and others do some serious rewriting of code very quickly, or it just won't happen.
Ok, so if what you want is a really slim notebook with a magnetically connected keyboard that will constantly be falling off, and want to stay in the Windows world, then I guess I see the Surface Pro.
But the ARM Surface really has me puzzled.
The big selling point seems to be this 'ingenious' keyboard/cover.
But it makes no sense unless you're really using it purely as a mini-laptop.
1) the keyboard only works for landscape mode
2) The camera is apparently tilted 'up' 22 degrees (in landscape orientation) so that when placed on a desk it isn't pointed 22 degrees down to the table surface. So what happens when you want to use this as a tablet in portrait orientation? Going to have to be aiming 22 degrees to the right?
3) Again, if you want to use this as a tablet (you know, the primary use), then when you have the keyboard case folded behind, your hands are holding onto a keyboard. This case is clearly meant to be taken off when used in portrait, so what again is the advantage of this over just a separate keyboard (other than the clever, I'll admit, magnetic charging. That's a nice touch.)
Microsoft is doubling down on the idea that what people REALLY want is an ultra portable laptop that occasionally can be used as a tablet.
I think they're wrong.
I don't get it either. A tablet is not supposed to have a keyboard. What they have designed is a terrible tablet and a terrible laptop combined together for a terrible user experience. We don't know how the software will work but they will probably sell quite a few to people like lamewing who don't care how much it sucks as long as it says Windows on it. It has to be better than that crappy Apple kit with all those crappy apps, music, books, movies, TV shows, podcasts, and textbooks.
I think MS has to abandon the idea that to be successful, they have to put Windows on everything. As it has already been pointed out, MS may make more money selling Office for iPad than Surface tablets. Let's hope they don't do something stupid like withhold the iPad version to try to force the Surface to be successful. I don't think that will work.
Microsoft does have a very nice eco system in place for their OS, it is called the internet. There is nothing I can not find on the internet I need for my PC. One of the biggest complaints I have with my wife's iMac is that I pretty much have to pay for everything, freeware is pretty much non-existent in the MAC world.
You've gotta be kidding.
1) Very little freeware, if any, measures up to the standards of paid software. A lot of the free junk floating around the "Microsoft ecosystem called The Internet" (LMAO) is barely usable, or has a lousy UI, or is poorly-supported. But YMMV. You *might* just be able to find everything free that happens to meet your needs. But form an objective standpoint, you get what you pay for. Just look at the state of Linux today. Yikes! All the best software will cost you money.
2) The Mac App Store has a Free section. Lots of goodies there, for each category. That's not "pretty much non-existent." Though I wouldn't mind hearing what "pretty much" means. I'm guessing in this case it's just a synonym for "nebulous."
3) You or your wife bought an iMac. Apple hardware. You're telling me you can't afford software?? You spent over $1000 on an Apple computer so you can go on the cheap on the software side?
Even a nice suite of productivity software doesn't need to cost hundreds of dollars.
I think we are all caught up in the thought that Microsoft is trying to upend Apple in the tablet space, but I imagine they are more likely targeting the Android tablet market in a bid to grow a strong second place. There IS room for another viable tablet OS and so far I don't think that is going to be Android.
Our family owns two iPhones, a Macbook Pro, and three AppleTVs. I'm seriously invested in iOS. However, I recently took the opportunity in moving overseas to buy an unlocked Nokia Lumia 800 (the gaudy cyan one) since my AT&T iPhone couldn't be unlocked until recently. I have to say I liked the WP7 interface for what it was...something uniquely different. The biggest knock against it was the miserable App Store. Now that my iPhone is unlocked courtesy of AT&T I am back to it, but MS has something going as a good second place finisher. Definitely better than Android.
I think MS has to abandon the idea that to be successful, they have to put Windows on everything.
Unfortunately, that's virtually all they know. And they didn't bother thinking outside of that. They figured they could milk the "Windows on everything" cow forever. The "Surface" is just a slightly different version of the same thing. It's essentially a laptop with some stuff bolted on in order to make it *seem* re-iomagined. Except it isn't. Nor is it really a tablet, the way a tablet *should* be.
I don't think Microsoft has the dilemma anymore. They had a dilemma for 4 years, in waiting for OEMs to come up with something to compete with first the MBA, and then the iPad.
They have solved the dilemma as they are building the reference platform for their MBA attack platform (SurfacePro) and their iPad attack platform (SurfaceRT). They then can spend that $90 in startup costs (sunk) to pay for building out a manufacturing capability,and voila... they get the manufacturer's profit...
Dilemma solved.... oh... those 'partners'... well if they can make the same thing cheaper (more than $90 cheaper)... great. If not, well, they can always become a contract manufacturer for Microsoft. and make 5% margins instead of 44% (more like 20% because of retail 'store/web front' costs...).
No Dilemmas for Microsoft. All dilemma for the 'partners' (beg for crumbs from MS, or switch to Android?)
I disagree!
MS did not introduce these as "reference platform" devices -- though they could (eventually) morph into that status.
MS' bogeys for the devices has to be:
32 GB Windows RT Tablet -- $599 (to match a similar, but better iPad)
64 GB Windows 8 Tablet -- $999 (To match a similar, but better MBA)
1) If MS prices them too high (and provides an umbrella for their Partners) -- the devices, likely, will not sell in significant numbers to warrant the investment.
2) If MS prices them low enough to be competitive -- MS, likely, will be the only source of the devices and there may not be enough volume/profit to provide a reasonable ROI.
3) MS' Partners (with existing, high volume, proven manufacturing/supply chains) have been unable to make these bogeys -- what makes anyone think that MS can profitably do this?
That is a real dilemma, in every sense of the word.
In any case, MS have lost the trust of their Partners!
Microsoft is creating a very nice eco system, if they get a long term vision and not starting to make the windows 8 app signature bullshit and so on, maybe they have a chance, right now Android is the King, Apple is slowly loosing to Google, and the new OS Mountain Lion don't give much to already called Mac OS X Vista - Lion.
About the prices Microsoft has an advantage here, since Apple only knows expensive word, and Microsoft is know to Make 10 versions of the "same" operating system, so that will be the same with tablets, since Nokia will sell Windows 8 Tablets!!
I do think we are always thinking Apple is the best and greatest, but if we see the last numbers, stock markets and iPhones/Macs sell, things are not looking so good as once did.
The price estimate for a "surface table" as the title implies are incorrect making the entire article flawed. Microsoft is the OEM therefore why would they have to pay $90 for their own software. So add $90 of profit to each of those estimates to get a more accurate picture.
The implied cost is based on external manufacturers, not MSFT themselves. Were MS to license for free, or a significantly reduced rate, then that discount would apply.
This challenge is no different than any other sector though. Were a steel cutting business to offer welding services, they risk competing with their clients.
I think that Microsoft has no choice - the manufacturers missed out on capitalizing on the touch interface that W7 brought to the table - and Microsoft does not want Windows 8 to be in the same boat.
I fully expect to see a Kinect 2.0 camera that turns desktop PCs into "Minority Report-like" interface, and foregoing the hardware change required for touchpads and touchscreen monitors (which are less practical).
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid
<your post>
I like this sort of prediction. I think that , as usual, reality will go beyond fiction. When threatened, formerly dominant companies like Microsoft are prone to desperate moves ... which dig their own grave. I think it will be fun to watch, really ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by city
I think Microsoft will price the surface with a very low margin to grab market share. They now want Apple's model of selling the software and the hardware. I don't think they care about their "Partners" anymore. For now, most of their "Partners" have no choice with regard to an Operating System anyway.
Maybe this can be applied to the Enterprise as well. Tell corporations they have one year to adopt Windows 8 or be left behind with support. Windows 7 will be sold for another year at a premium price to Windows 8 and only be supported for one year after that. XP users will cease to exist for MS. No security updates, no service packs, no discounted tech support etc. Where are corporations going to go? Buy all new hardware using Apple? No! Moved everyone to Ubuntu? No!. Just like the OEM's, they have no where else to go.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltWater
Microsoft is creating a very nice eco system, if they get a long term vision and not starting to make the windows 8 app signature bullshit and so on, maybe they have a chance, right now Android is the King, Apple is slowly loosing to Google, and the new OS Mountain Lion don't give much to already called Mac OS X Vista - Lion.
About the prices Microsoft has an advantage here, since Apple only knows expensive word, and Microsoft is know to Make 10 versions of the "same" operating system, so that will be the same with tablets, since Nokia will sell Windows 8 Tablets!!
I do think we are always thinking Apple is the best and greatest, but if we see the last numbers, stock markets and iPhones/Macs sell, things are not looking so good as once did.
I`d love to see MS do well with this hardware but I have no clue where you are getting these "numbers" of which you speak.
There isn`t an Android tablet that has ever looked like it might try to compete with an iPad.
The vast majority of Android phones are running on crap hardware with outdated OS's that will never see an update.
Quite honestly I haven`t seen an Android OS that could compete with iOS in stability in it`s entire history (I`m fluent in both OS's) perhaps until ICS came out...maybe.
C'mon, guys - we aren't comparing apples and oranges here...
Possibly more like Apples and DogTurds, time will tell.
But the simple fact is, the iPad is a device, the Surface will be a computer, in tablet form (at least according to MS).
Not designed for quite the same things, not capable of quite the same things. And I think that Apple, even while it makes its device a little more "computeresque" with each upgrade, has proven that there is a huge market for just what the iPad does.
I also think that, mostly for that reason, MS's only real opportunity here is to sell it like this:
WE did what Apple couldn't do! We made a computer in the most accessible, portable form there is!
If they can float that, they might sell a few...dozen.
the PC OEM profit pool:
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrstep
[...] So does Microsoft want to upset their entire current business model on the off chance they can even compete in mobile if they try, or are they content to watch as Apple continues to dominate and pulls users away from the desktop at an increasing rate? No real guaranteed win in there for Microsoft in any case.
Perfectly stated. It's as if Microsoft is just going through the motions of entering the pad computing market in earnest. Without the actual earnestness. Because pad computing can and will cut into their bread and butter Windows + Office legacy desktop computing profits.
PC Era: expensive software, generic low-margin hardware.
Post-PC Era: cheap software, bespoke high-margin hardware.
Microsoft is trying to have it both ways. Trying to drag expensive PC era software into the post-PC era. They want to charge their pad computing OEMs (if there are any left) $85 per copy of Windows RT. Hoping that it will fail, so they can try (for what, the third time already?) to cram "no compromises" Windows into yet another pad computer. The only differences between Surface and the HP Slate 500 being 1) no stylus, and 2) 1" bigger screen.
Only 9,000 or so HP Slate 500s have been sold since October 2010. Rounding error-sized numbers.
Good luck with Slate 2.0, Ballmer. Let's see if you beat that 9,000 number by summer 2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff
Exactly... the model was buy the cheapest PC to run the apps you need, which cost over $130 base (Windows+Office)
The iPad is get the the most memory you can afford at the connectivity level you require. Apps are free or really cheap (OS is 'free', most apps are free, and the 'office' apps are... $30)
This kills the OEMs for their only differentiator is price, which is a function of quality in their game.
I run a $500 quad core 3 Ghz desktop. I guess I'm to cheap to pay $2,000+ for something comparable from Apple.
Apple is just not competive in the desktop market so the smart (not cheap) money is with Windows whether you like it or not.
That said there is no way I would use a Surface as a desktop it would be just too underpowered. The only justification for tablets and reasonably priced(<$2000) laptops is portability. Apple is very competive in that market.
You had me going for it at first, I was suckered in with the troll mask on.
LMAO !!
So Microsoft could discontinue licensing its Operating System as Apple did in 1998.
This is another consideration.
There is a marked difference between software written for mouse interface gestures (click, drag, right click etc ), and touchscreen gestures (pinch, rotate, swipe etc).
Unless software has been specifically written for a touch interface it won't work on it.
There is a very good reason why Apple's macbook series don't have touchscreens!
Microsoft is letting people believe that they can put a full OS 8 on a tablet and everyone will be able to use it for work.
They need to have some big software names (Adobe, Autodesk and others
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB
Ok, so if what you want is a really slim notebook with a magnetically connected keyboard that will constantly be falling off, and want to stay in the Windows world, then I guess I see the Surface Pro.
But the ARM Surface really has me puzzled.
The big selling point seems to be this 'ingenious' keyboard/cover.
But it makes no sense unless you're really using it purely as a mini-laptop.
1) the keyboard only works for landscape mode
2) The camera is apparently tilted 'up' 22 degrees (in landscape orientation) so that when placed on a desk it isn't pointed 22 degrees down to the table surface. So what happens when you want to use this as a tablet in portrait orientation? Going to have to be aiming 22 degrees to the right?
3) Again, if you want to use this as a tablet (you know, the primary use), then when you have the keyboard case folded behind, your hands are holding onto a keyboard. This case is clearly meant to be taken off when used in portrait, so what again is the advantage of this over just a separate keyboard (other than the clever, I'll admit, magnetic charging. That's a nice touch.)
Microsoft is doubling down on the idea that what people REALLY want is an ultra portable laptop that occasionally can be used as a tablet.
I think they're wrong.
I don't get it either. A tablet is not supposed to have a keyboard. What they have designed is a terrible tablet and a terrible laptop combined together for a terrible user experience. We don't know how the software will work but they will probably sell quite a few to people like lamewing who don't care how much it sucks as long as it says Windows on it. It has to be better than that crappy Apple kit with all those crappy apps, music, books, movies, TV shows, podcasts, and textbooks.
I think MS has to abandon the idea that to be successful, they have to put Windows on everything. As it has already been pointed out, MS may make more money selling Office for iPad than Surface tablets. Let's hope they don't do something stupid like withhold the iPad version to try to force the Surface to be successful. I don't think that will work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool
Microsoft does have a very nice eco system in place for their OS, it is called the internet. There is nothing I can not find on the internet I need for my PC. One of the biggest complaints I have with my wife's iMac is that I pretty much have to pay for everything, freeware is pretty much non-existent in the MAC world.
You've gotta be kidding.
1) Very little freeware, if any, measures up to the standards of paid software. A lot of the free junk floating around the "Microsoft ecosystem called The Internet" (LMAO) is barely usable, or has a lousy UI, or is poorly-supported. But YMMV. You *might* just be able to find everything free that happens to meet your needs. But form an objective standpoint, you get what you pay for. Just look at the state of Linux today. Yikes! All the best software will cost you money.
2) The Mac App Store has a Free section. Lots of goodies there, for each category. That's not "pretty much non-existent." Though I wouldn't mind hearing what "pretty much" means. I'm guessing in this case it's just a synonym for "nebulous."
3) You or your wife bought an iMac. Apple hardware. You're telling me you can't afford software?? You spent over $1000 on an Apple computer so you can go on the cheap on the software side?
Even a nice suite of productivity software doesn't need to cost hundreds of dollars.
Have you tried the Mac App Store? Plenty of free titles in there. Also, you get what you pay for. Developers like to eat.
Our family owns two iPhones, a Macbook Pro, and three AppleTVs. I'm seriously invested in iOS. However, I recently took the opportunity in moving overseas to buy an unlocked Nokia Lumia 800 (the gaudy cyan one) since my AT&T iPhone couldn't be unlocked until recently. I have to say I liked the WP7 interface for what it was...something uniquely different. The biggest knock against it was the miserable App Store. Now that my iPhone is unlocked courtesy of AT&T I am back to it, but MS has something going as a good second place finisher. Definitely better than Android.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustav
I think MS has to abandon the idea that to be successful, they have to put Windows on everything.
Unfortunately, that's virtually all they know. And they didn't bother thinking outside of that. They figured they could milk the "Windows on everything" cow forever. The "Surface" is just a slightly different version of the same thing. It's essentially a laptop with some stuff bolted on in order to make it *seem* re-iomagined. Except it isn't. Nor is it really a tablet, the way a tablet *should* be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff
I don't think Microsoft has the dilemma anymore. They had a dilemma for 4 years, in waiting for OEMs to come up with something to compete with first the MBA, and then the iPad.
They have solved the dilemma as they are building the reference platform for their MBA attack platform (SurfacePro) and their iPad attack platform (SurfaceRT). They then can spend that $90 in startup costs (sunk) to pay for building out a manufacturing capability,and voila... they get the manufacturer's profit...
Dilemma solved.... oh... those 'partners'... well if they can make the same thing cheaper (more than $90 cheaper)... great. If not, well, they can always become a contract manufacturer for Microsoft. and make 5% margins instead of 44% (more like 20% because of retail 'store/web front' costs...).
No Dilemmas for Microsoft. All dilemma for the 'partners' (beg for crumbs from MS, or switch to Android?)
I disagree!
MS did not introduce these as "reference platform" devices -- though they could (eventually) morph into that status.
MS' bogeys for the devices has to be:
32 GB Windows RT Tablet -- $599 (to match a similar, but better iPad)
64 GB Windows 8 Tablet -- $999 (To match a similar, but better MBA)
1) If MS prices them too high (and provides an umbrella for their Partners) -- the devices, likely, will not sell in significant numbers to warrant the investment.
2) If MS prices them low enough to be competitive -- MS, likely, will be the only source of the devices and there may not be enough volume/profit to provide a reasonable ROI.
3) MS' Partners (with existing, high volume, proven manufacturing/supply chains) have been unable to make these bogeys -- what makes anyone think that MS can profitably do this?
That is a real dilemma, in every sense of the word.
In any case, MS have lost the trust of their Partners!
Hello, Mr. Ballmer!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BallaOnnaBudget
The price estimate for a "surface table" as the title implies are incorrect making the entire article flawed. Microsoft is the OEM therefore why would they have to pay $90 for their own software. So add $90 of profit to each of those estimates to get a more accurate picture.
The implied cost is based on external manufacturers, not MSFT themselves. Were MS to license for free, or a significantly reduced rate, then that discount would apply.
This challenge is no different than any other sector though. Were a steel cutting business to offer welding services, they risk competing with their clients.
I think that Microsoft has no choice - the manufacturers missed out on capitalizing on the touch interface that W7 brought to the table - and Microsoft does not want Windows 8 to be in the same boat.
I fully expect to see a Kinect 2.0 camera that turns desktop PCs into "Minority Report-like" interface, and foregoing the hardware change required for touchpads and touchscreen monitors (which are less practical).
Quote:
Nice trolling. Take your BS somewhere else.
And you please take your attitude elsewhere as well.