I am glad to see I am not the only one. Last year I moved all my stocks to AAPL against the advice of every expert on the planet. granted I know they are 100% correct that it is stupid to put your eggs in one basket, and I don't plan on keeping it all in AAPL for long because they have a point. On the other hand in all likelihood AAPL won't crash any harder than any other stock in the near future, and I have other investments like a house, a wife, kids, a motorcycle, etc, so I am technically diversified...
My problem is I promised to sell half my stock when it hit 700 which I thought was further away... Now what do I spread out to? Facebook??
Facebook? I wouldn't touch that stock with a dead raccoon. If you need to diversify, buy the best performers in a variety of stock sectors. I refuse to give out specific stock advice because there are a million ways to approach investing, but the only "right" approach is the one you develop for yourself over time.
I purchased my first shares of Apple at the beginning of my college career, around 2004/2005 I believe. I purchased right before the first split.
I've bought back in quite a few times over the years, including last year when it hit around 360 or so. I still have all my shares and plan on holding onto them for the near future. Being involved in Apple sales the past decade, I can easily see that Apple is on fire and it's not a fad as some people say.
People are genuinely happy with their Apple products and will continue to buy them. I have no idea how high Apple will go, but I don't see it slowing down anytime soon. Mac sales are on the rise, iPad sales are on the rise, iPhone sales are on the rise. With the new iPad coming out next month, they are going to dominate the holiday seasons.
I'm curious to see what other products Apple comes out with. With Siri and Maps now, I could easily see Apple making a car interface much like Microsoft and selling it to the car companies.
Sky is the limit for this company, certainly exciting times.
If your barber starts asking for AAPL buy and sell advice, approach with caution. I don't believe there is an AAPL bubble (as a matter of fact, I think it is still terribly undervalued), but that does not mean a bubble cannot build around the stock.
I have no major concerns about Apple over the next 5 years or so, but I am very concerned about the possibility of another market crash and swing deeper into recession for the economy in 2013. Although the majority of them were wrong prior to the 2008 crash, many economists say we are headed for more trouble. Also, demographics being an unavoidable trend, I fully expect deflation to wreak havoc on worldwide markets over the next 15-20 years. We are lurching into a shift in the Western world's population that will affect everyone.
Those types of predictions, IMHO, are worth the paper they're written on. Certainly not something I worry about in the least.
Also, I would imagine that much of the predictable impact of demographics in the West is probably incorporated into prices. Aging in the West will be counterbalanced by the emergence of India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc (although not China, which has a rapidly aging population thanks to its one-child policies).
That said, it is probably fair to expect much lower returns on AAPL going forward. Even getting to $1000 in say, 3 years, implies a compounded annual return of just 12%. Compare that to the roughly 800% gain since Jan 2007 (which is when I got into the stock in a big way; my moment of epiphany was the iPhone intro!), or the approximate doubling, since Tim Cook took over as CEO a year ago. Those sorts of returns are history.
NINE YEARS. A thousand shares then and you'd be 7/10ths of the way to being a millionaire, just SITTING on them.
Has any company in the history of the world ever done this?
If I remember correctly, there was a split that you didn't account for. So, the 1,000 shares I sold at $27 would be worth $1.4 million. Cry me a river.
Those types of predictions, IMHO, are worth the paper they're written on. Certainly not something I worry about in the least.
Also, I would imagine that much of the predictable impact of demographics in the West is probably incorporated into prices. Aging in the West will be counterbalanced by the emergence of India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc (although not China, which has a rapidly aging population thanks to its one-child policies).
That said, it is probably fair to expect much lower returns on AAPL going forward. Even getting to $1000 in say, 3 years, implies a compounded annual return of just 12%. Compare that to the roughly 800% gain since Jan 2007 (which is when I got into the stock in a big way; my moment of epiphany was the iPhone intro!), or the approximate doubling, since Tim Cook took over as CEO a year ago. Those sorts of returns are history.
The iPad chases after the aging demographic as well as the youth demo, so I think there is plenty of rapid growth left in that product. The iPhone has lots of competition, but few real "competitors" (if you know what I mean)... iPhone will continue to grow and I'm thinking they will have another category of product they'll bring out soon that will broaden the perception of what Apple is all about in the near future (1 to 2 years).
Their stock is as hyped as their products.. it's a bubble that's going to burst so loud and it will have severe economic consequences.. and all because of the investors and those who are making quite a bit of money now want to make even more so they are propping up Apple's stock value.
Nobody cares about these numbers anymore really.. to most objective people (even investors) this is insanity. A company that has 80% of their revenue on 2 products is valued more than other companies with diversified revenues.
If I remember correctly, there was a split that you didn't account for. So, the 1,000 shares I sold at $27 would be worth $1.4 million. Cry me a river.
I bought a small batch at $85 during the 2008 crash. Wish I would have bought more. About 75% of my portfolio is AAPL right now. I'm planning to hold on until sometime in February after 4th quarter earnings, then pare it all down to something less insane. By then I figure AAPL will represent 90% of my portfolio and that's just crazy by any definition.
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
Just curious what Microsoft's diversification is? Don't they make most of their money off of Windows and Office? And Google? Do they have diversified revenue streams or is it mostly advertising?
It's true that at the moment AAPL is probably the best stock for making money, but that doesn't mean it can't go down. In a market collapse, it could lose half of its value. The question for those who are heavily weighted in AAPL, is if you would be OK with that, or would you wish that you had cashed out some of it before it tanked.
The P/E is expanding in anticipation of january earnings. Lets hope the iPhone 5 sales to the end of september will be enough to save fiscal Q4. From what I have seen if they double the 4S they will have 8 millions in the first week-end. IF we get 10 millions by the end of the month Q4 earnings are going to be Ok (they will beat guidance and maybe estimates)
It's true that at the moment AAPL is probably the best stock for making money, but that doesn't mean it can't go down. In a market collapse, it could lose half of its value. The question for those who are heavily weighted in AAPL, is if you would be OK with that, or would you wish that you had cashed out some of it before it tanked.
I dont think Apple could go to 350 even on a major market crash, P/E compression would be extreme. Lets not forget we also have 120 / share in cash alone. But there is risk indeed with any stock trading at all time high. My market crash estimates are in the 500-550 range. I am trying to gadge how to enter this, because I expect 800$+ by january. I currently have only options on the weekly, october and april 2013. I will add jan 2014 and feb 2013 on dips and hold 20% in cash in case of a correction.
I dont think Apple could go to 350 even on a major market crash, P/E compression would be extreme. Lets not forget we also have 120 / share in cash alone. But there is risk indeed with any stock trading at all time high. My market crash estimates are in the 500-550 range. I am trying to gadge how to enter this, because I expect 800$+ by january. I currently have only options on the weekly, october and april 2013. I will add jan 2014 and feb 2013 on dips and hold 20% in cash in case of a correction.
Then again, who would've guessed AAPL would hit near $80 back in 2008? Many large "institutions" are still shuffling around money based on incredibly low interest rates, thanks to the madness of Ben Bernanke. The economy is floating on artificial supports with the "laudable" but idiotic goal of keeping employment at levels that are unsustainable.
Then again, who would've guessed AAPL would hit near $80 back in 2008? Many large "institutions" are still shuffling around money based on incredibly low interest rates, thanks to the madness of Ben Bernanke. The economy is floating on artificial supports with the "laudable" but idiotic goal of keeping employment at levels that are unsustainable.
In 2008 before the drop Apple was trading at a much higher multiple then now, which means it had a potential bigger gap down.
I am glad to see I am not the only one. Last year I moved all my stocks to AAPL against the advice of every expert on the planet. granted I know they are 100% correct that it is stupid to put your eggs in one basket, and I don't plan on keeping it all in AAPL for long because they have a point. On the other hand in all likelihood AAPL won't crash any harder than any other stock in the near future, and I have other investments like a house, a wife, kids, a motorcycle, etc, so I am technically diversified...
My problem is I promised to sell half my stock when it hit 700 which I thought was further away... Now what do I spread out to? Facebook??
Facebook is a bit of a risk right now. I managed to get 1,000 shares at opening, and we know what happened! What a botched mess. I ended up buying another 1,000 at about 19.5. That's it for me! I don't know what will happen, but I imaging, if I'm willing to hold long enough, I'll come out ahead. Don't know how long it will take though.
Back when Steve got sick in early 2008 and the stock fell to the high 70's or low 80's I wanted to buy some but I was dirt poor at the time because I spent all my money moving to Houston to start my first job out of college and my company had yet reimburse me. I still haven't bought any because I keep thinking "it can't go much higher."
As always I'm an idiot
You, and a lot of others, so don't feel alone. I was thinking of selling when it hit $200, right before the recession was known. A very small number of us here were saying that the recession had already begun in the beginning of 2008, but no one believed us. Turned out we were correct. If I weren't persuaded otherwise, I would have sold, and then I could have bought back at $80. Ah, the shame of it!
Well, that's what happens when you listen to others.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by bill42
I am glad to see I am not the only one. Last year I moved all my stocks to AAPL against the advice of every expert on the planet. granted I know they are 100% correct that it is stupid to put your eggs in one basket, and I don't plan on keeping it all in AAPL for long because they have a point. On the other hand in all likelihood AAPL won't crash any harder than any other stock in the near future, and I have other investments like a house, a wife, kids, a motorcycle, etc, so I am technically diversified...
My problem is I promised to sell half my stock when it hit 700 which I thought was further away... Now what do I spread out to? Facebook??
Facebook? I wouldn't touch that stock with a dead raccoon. If you need to diversify, buy the best performers in a variety of stock sectors. I refuse to give out specific stock advice because there are a million ways to approach investing, but the only "right" approach is the one you develop for yourself over time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soundvision
I purchased my first shares of Apple at the beginning of my college career, around 2004/2005 I believe. I purchased right before the first split.
I've bought back in quite a few times over the years, including last year when it hit around 360 or so. I still have all my shares and plan on holding onto them for the near future. Being involved in Apple sales the past decade, I can easily see that Apple is on fire and it's not a fad as some people say.
People are genuinely happy with their Apple products and will continue to buy them. I have no idea how high Apple will go, but I don't see it slowing down anytime soon. Mac sales are on the rise, iPad sales are on the rise, iPhone sales are on the rise. With the new iPad coming out next month, they are going to dominate the holiday seasons.
I'm curious to see what other products Apple comes out with. With Siri and Maps now, I could easily see Apple making a car interface much like Microsoft and selling it to the car companies.
Sky is the limit for this company, certainly exciting times.
If your barber starts asking for AAPL buy and sell advice, approach with caution. I don't believe there is an AAPL bubble (as a matter of fact, I think it is still terribly undervalued), but that does not mean a bubble cannot build around the stock.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
I have no major concerns about Apple over the next 5 years or so, but I am very concerned about the possibility of another market crash and swing deeper into recession for the economy in 2013. Although the majority of them were wrong prior to the 2008 crash, many economists say we are headed for more trouble. Also, demographics being an unavoidable trend, I fully expect deflation to wreak havoc on worldwide markets over the next 15-20 years. We are lurching into a shift in the Western world's population that will affect everyone.
Those types of predictions, IMHO, are worth the paper they're written on. Certainly not something I worry about in the least.
Also, I would imagine that much of the predictable impact of demographics in the West is probably incorporated into prices. Aging in the West will be counterbalanced by the emergence of India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc (although not China, which has a rapidly aging population thanks to its one-child policies).
That said, it is probably fair to expect much lower returns on AAPL going forward. Even getting to $1000 in say, 3 years, implies a compounded annual return of just 12%. Compare that to the roughly 800% gain since Jan 2007 (which is when I got into the stock in a big way; my moment of epiphany was the iPhone intro!), or the approximate doubling, since Tim Cook took over as CEO a year ago. Those sorts of returns are history.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Nine years ago, the stock was $7 a share.
NINE YEARS. A thousand shares then and you'd be 7/10ths of the way to being a millionaire, just SITTING on them.
Has any company in the history of the world ever done this?
If I remember correctly, there was a split that you didn't account for. So, the 1,000 shares I sold at $27 would be worth $1.4 million. Cry me a river.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Those types of predictions, IMHO, are worth the paper they're written on. Certainly not something I worry about in the least.
Also, I would imagine that much of the predictable impact of demographics in the West is probably incorporated into prices. Aging in the West will be counterbalanced by the emergence of India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc (although not China, which has a rapidly aging population thanks to its one-child policies).
That said, it is probably fair to expect much lower returns on AAPL going forward. Even getting to $1000 in say, 3 years, implies a compounded annual return of just 12%. Compare that to the roughly 800% gain since Jan 2007 (which is when I got into the stock in a big way; my moment of epiphany was the iPhone intro!), or the approximate doubling, since Tim Cook took over as CEO a year ago. Those sorts of returns are history.
The iPad chases after the aging demographic as well as the youth demo, so I think there is plenty of rapid growth left in that product. The iPhone has lots of competition, but few real "competitors" (if you know what I mean)... iPhone will continue to grow and I'm thinking they will have another category of product they'll bring out soon that will broaden the perception of what Apple is all about in the near future (1 to 2 years).
Daily Neowin Nonsense:
br0adband
The one and only...
361 posts
Joined: 16-May 02
Posted Today, 21:26
It's gonna be one helluva fall when they tank...
Top
#3+Boz
Neowinian UNSTOPPABLE
6,707 posts
Joined: 21-October 03
Posted Today, 21:27
Their stock is as hyped as their products.. it's a bubble that's going to burst so loud and it will have severe economic consequences.. and all because of the investors and those who are making quite a bit of money now want to make even more so they are propping up Apple's stock value.
Nobody cares about these numbers anymore really.. to most objective people (even investors) this is insanity. A company that has 80% of their revenue on 2 products is valued more than other companies with diversified revenues.
Completely disconnected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NomadMac
If I remember correctly, there was a split that you didn't account for. So, the 1,000 shares I sold at $27 would be worth $1.4 million. Cry me a river.
As big as the Amazon!
I bought a small batch at $85 during the 2008 crash. Wish I would have bought more. About 75% of my portfolio is AAPL right now. I'm planning to hold on until sometime in February after 4th quarter earnings, then pare it all down to something less insane. By then I figure AAPL will represent 90% of my portfolio and that's just crazy by any definition.
Originally Posted by Quadra 610
Daily Neowin Nonsense:
Talk about "completely disconnected"!
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macguru
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
Do tell.
The P/E is expanding in anticipation of january earnings. Lets hope the iPhone 5 sales to the end of september will be enough to save fiscal Q4. From what I have seen if they double the 4S they will have 8 millions in the first week-end. IF we get 10 millions by the end of the month Q4 earnings are going to be Ok (they will beat guidance and maybe estimates)
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Q. Public
It's true that at the moment AAPL is probably the best stock for making money, but that doesn't mean it can't go down. In a market collapse, it could lose half of its value. The question for those who are heavily weighted in AAPL, is if you would be OK with that, or would you wish that you had cashed out some of it before it tanked.
I dont think Apple could go to 350 even on a major market crash, P/E compression would be extreme. Lets not forget we also have 120 / share in cash alone. But there is risk indeed with any stock trading at all time high. My market crash estimates are in the 500-550 range. I am trying to gadge how to enter this, because I expect 800$+ by january. I currently have only options on the weekly, october and april 2013. I will add jan 2014 and feb 2013 on dips and hold 20% in cash in case of a correction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou
I dont think Apple could go to 350 even on a major market crash, P/E compression would be extreme. Lets not forget we also have 120 / share in cash alone. But there is risk indeed with any stock trading at all time high. My market crash estimates are in the 500-550 range. I am trying to gadge how to enter this, because I expect 800$+ by january. I currently have only options on the weekly, october and april 2013. I will add jan 2014 and feb 2013 on dips and hold 20% in cash in case of a correction.
Then again, who would've guessed AAPL would hit near $80 back in 2008? Many large "institutions" are still shuffling around money based on incredibly low interest rates, thanks to the madness of Ben Bernanke. The economy is floating on artificial supports with the "laudable" but idiotic goal of keeping employment at levels that are unsustainable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Then again, who would've guessed AAPL would hit near $80 back in 2008? Many large "institutions" are still shuffling around money based on incredibly low interest rates, thanks to the madness of Ben Bernanke. The economy is floating on artificial supports with the "laudable" but idiotic goal of keeping employment at levels that are unsustainable.
In 2008 before the drop Apple was trading at a much higher multiple then now, which means it had a potential bigger gap down.
Facebook is a bit of a risk right now. I managed to get 1,000 shares at opening, and we know what happened! What a botched mess. I ended up buying another 1,000 at about 19.5. That's it for me! I don't know what will happen, but I imaging, if I'm willing to hold long enough, I'll come out ahead. Don't know how long it will take though.
You, and a lot of others, so don't feel alone. I was thinking of selling when it hit $200, right before the recession was known. A very small number of us here were saying that the recession had already begun in the beginning of 2008, but no one believed us. Turned out we were correct. If I weren't persuaded otherwise, I would have sold, and then I could have bought back at $80. Ah, the shame of it!
Well, that's what happens when you listen to others.