I am kind of surprised. With much wider international release, upgrade customer base, and upgrade significance it seems to be a failure. Now if apple recognizes revenue on shipment, severe inventory constraints may explain this.
If you actually read the article, you would see that the wider release was very minor.
I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.
And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.
If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?
I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.
There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).
I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.
The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).
I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
They were but they were going from looking at YoY sales. Wasn't it 2M for the iPhone and 4M for the iPhone 4S? If so, that doesn't seem to outrageous to predict doubling that. I predicted 6M, if I recall correctly, after I factored in scaling issues.
Unfortunately some will take first weekend sales as an indication that the quarter thus assuming they will only sell 25% more. That would be a fool's position to take. For the quarter I expect no less than a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.
There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).
I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.
The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).
That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.
unfortunately, The Market doesn't discount the analysts until they do something illegal, or lose money for their bosses.
Apple sold what they sold. Maps will get better. the phone is unlocked for LTE GSM, which makes the Verizon phone worth all the little bit more in terms of functionality.
Personally, I thought the riots at Foxconn overnight were the reason for the stock drop. It's much more damaging to Apple if Foxconn can't make phones as fast as planned.
I'm surprised it wasn't more when you compare to the 4S, a significantly smaller upgrade.
I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.
And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.
If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?
I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.
As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).
For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".
If resellers (including Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.
WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.
Simple. He only looked at demand (aka: desire). He didn't look at what was feasible in the physical world for a company to sell with finite resources.
That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.
The more important number is sales for Jul-Sep Quarter. As that not only offsets the last quarter 'duldrums' it also sets the expectations through the holidays, which for Apple speculators, it's like the day the Sears Xmas Catalog was delivered (yes, I'm old as dirt).
There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).
I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.
The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).
This looks to be a wild day in the market. When I first looked, it was down $12.75. Then, over time, was just down $5.35. Looked again and it was down $8.80, then down over $10. Just looked again, and it's down $8.64. Doesn't help that the market is down as well. The maps problem isn't helping either.
I know several people who have been holding on to their 3GS for various reasons who are now ready to upgrade - so it would be interesting to see if any data on what folks are upgrading form is available.
Here's a datapoint - I upgraded from a 3GS and my wife upgraded (or rather, I upgraded her) from a 4.
The way it usually works in our household is that the "boss" gets the latest and I get the hand-me-down. We don't buy every generation - we previously went from a 2G to the 3GS then to the 4. This time, the plan was that one of us would get the 5 - if it were me, then my wife would be content to stay with the 4. If it were my wife who got the 5, then I would upgrade my 3GS to a 4S (for the better camera vs. the 4). In either case the mother-in-law would end up with an iPhone again (she previously was using our old 2G until it got pick-pocketed).
Of course what ended up happening is that I was so impressed by the iPhone 5 announcement that I pre-ordered two (1 black, 1 white) - I felt the improvements were well worth the $100 premium over the 4S (unlocked). The 4 will go the mother-in-law and right now I'm not sure what I will do with the 3GS - I just upgraded it to iOS 6 today and will probably play around with it a bit before deciding.
As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).
For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".
If resellers (including Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.
It was my understanding that 'stick and stucco' worked off the same inventory control as the online store.. a sale wasn't recorded until the card is charged.
Resellers... I don't know. But given how they report sales, I would think they don't book the sale until they see a 'restock' order (If I sent Best Buy 100,000, and they send me a restock of 150K, I sold 100K. if they send a restock of 95K, I sold 95K, with 5K still 'in channel').
They were but they were going from looking at YoY sales. Wasn't it 2M for the iPhone and 4M for the iPhone 4S? If so, that doesn't seem to outrageous to predict doubling that. I predicted 6M, if I recall correctly, after I factored in scaling issues.
Unfortunately some will take first weekend sales as an indication that the quarter thus assuming they will only sell 25% more. That would be a fool's position to take. For the quarter I expect no less than a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.
But the logistical problems have to be taken into account. I would love to know what percentage of iPhones are sold from Apple's stores, their web site, the carriers (which we will know, at least from AT&T and Verizon), and other third party sellers.
If we knew that, we could make much better predictions. As I said, Apple can only get a certain number of people through their stores in a day. And what happens in a Best Buy? Do they book orders that must be picked up and billed a week later? How about Walmart, Radio Shack, and others. How about in other countries. What do their laws say? They may not be allowed to book a sale until the device in in the consumers hand, and is only then paid for.
There's too much we don't know. Maybe "more than 5 million" is about all they could do. That seems to be an awful lot of sales for a weekend.
As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).
For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".
If resellers (including Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.
No Apple books sell through. That means a committed sale to the end user.
But the logistical problems have to be taken into account. I would love to know what percentage of iPhones are sold from Apple's stores, their web site, the carriers (which we will know, at least from AT&T and Verizon), and other third party sellers.
If we knew that, we could make much better predictions. As I said, Apple can only get a certain number of people through their stores in a day. And what happens in a Best Buy? Do they book orders that must be picked up and billed a week later? How about Walmart, Radio Shack, and others. How about in other countries. What do their laws say? They may not be allowed to book a sale until the device in in the consumers hand, and is only then paid for.
There's too much we don't know. Maybe "more than 5 million" is about all they could do. That seems to be an awful lot of sales for a weekend.
Funny you should say that. I was just trying to figure those numbers out (with a wide margin for error).
What we know:
Apple had 2 million pre-orders in the first 24 hours.
First day delivery of the iPhone ended in less than an hour of them going on sale.
Apple sold 5 million units in the first 24 hours.
Unshipped product don't count as sales.
If was say that all 2 million units from the first 24 hours we re delivered on Friday then we find the stores account for 3 million or 60% of the unit sales. But we know those 2 million were not shipped so we have to take a smaller number which is where the estimates come in. If we assume that 1 million were ready for online sales for day one delivery then we have stores selling 80% of the units.
Anyone want to figure out how many units per store on average were moved this weekend?
Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.
Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.
Six million was the worst case scenario, so this is a fail. The Maps scandal probably accounted for 2 millions. The lack of NFC is responsible for another million. Personally, I'm holding my iPhone 4 another year. If the iPhone 6 will not have NFC, great Maps and that fingerprint thing they just bought, I give up on Apple.
You could've truncated that post by saying: "I've been an Apple user since..."
Comments
If you actually read the article, you would see that the wider release was very minor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.
And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.
If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?
I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.
There are still a likely couple of million -- like the one I ordered for my wife -- that won't show up in the numbers until shipped (since revenue won't be booked until then).
I think that, when the dust settles, the actual number from the first week will be closer to 7 - 8 million, since the 5 million only includes those that have been delivered/sold in retail outlets.
The stock price move was a short-term overreaction. (Indeed, as of the time I write this, the stock has already gained back close to half its pre-opening lows).
WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.
They were but they were going from looking at YoY sales. Wasn't it 2M for the iPhone and 4M for the iPhone 4S? If so, that doesn't seem to outrageous to predict doubling that. I predicted 6M, if I recall correctly, after I factored in scaling issues.
Unfortunately some will take first weekend sales as an indication that the quarter thus assuming they will only sell 25% more. That would be a fool's position to take. For the quarter I expect no less than a 60% YoY increase for the quarter.
That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98
WSJ:
Many analysts were expecting sales would top 6 million; Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray even estimated sales could hit 10 million.
Wow what a miss by the analyst. I wonder how he came up with the number like this.
unfortunately, The Market doesn't discount the analysts until they do something illegal, or lose money for their bosses.
Apple sold what they sold. Maps will get better. the phone is unlocked for LTE GSM, which makes the Verizon phone worth all the little bit more in terms of functionality.
Personally, I thought the riots at Foxconn overnight were the reason for the stock drop. It's much more damaging to Apple if Foxconn can't make phones as fast as planned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775
I'm surprised it wasn't more when you compare to the 4S, a significantly smaller upgrade.
I think all of these estimates were overblown. The question is how many phones could they have sold?
I've bought phones and tablets from Apple the first day. It takes then a certain amount of time to handle each customer. And while its gotten faster, it's not that much faster. So they can get a certain number of people through in a day. The web site in theory, can do better, but even there , we get congestion.
And then we have the carriers and third party retailers, all of whom ran out of stock. Again, I don't know how they handle sales when out of stock. Do they count as a sale, an order that isn't paid for? That order could be cancelled.
If Apple had twice as many phones available, would they have been able to sell more?
I think that over 5 million for three days is pretty damn good.
As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).
For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".
If resellers (including Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.
Simple. He only looked at demand (aka: desire). He didn't look at what was feasible in the physical world for a company to sell with finite resources.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
That's a good point. They are also adding 28(?) more countries this Friday, which is unprecedented. They have put them aside and they aren't counted yet. They could have over 8 million sold in the first 2 weekends.
The more important number is sales for Jul-Sep Quarter. As that not only offsets the last quarter 'duldrums' it also sets the expectations through the holidays, which for Apple speculators, it's like the day the Sears Xmas Catalog was delivered (yes, I'm old as dirt).
This looks to be a wild day in the market. When I first looked, it was down $12.75. Then, over time, was just down $5.35. Looked again and it was down $8.80, then down over $10. Just looked again, and it's down $8.64. Doesn't help that the market is down as well. The maps problem isn't helping either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64
I know several people who have been holding on to their 3GS for various reasons who are now ready to upgrade - so it would be interesting to see if any data on what folks are upgrading form is available.
Here's a datapoint - I upgraded from a 3GS and my wife upgraded (or rather, I upgraded her) from a 4.
The way it usually works in our household is that the "boss" gets the latest and I get the hand-me-down. We don't buy every generation - we previously went from a 2G to the 3GS then to the 4. This time, the plan was that one of us would get the 5 - if it were me, then my wife would be content to stay with the 4. If it were my wife who got the 5, then I would upgrade my 3GS to a 4S (for the better camera vs. the 4). In either case the mother-in-law would end up with an iPhone again (she previously was using our old 2G until it got pick-pocketed).
Of course what ended up happening is that I was so impressed by the iPhone 5 announcement that I pre-ordered two (1 black, 1 white) - I felt the improvements were well worth the $100 premium over the 4S (unlocked). The 4 will go the mother-in-law and right now I'm not sure what I will do with the 3GS - I just upgraded it to iOS 6 today and will probably play around with it a bit before deciding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
As I understand it, Apple counts it as a sale when it is ready to ship to resellers... I don't know for sure if Apple stick and stucco stores are handled this way... but, likely, they are -- it makes sense, at least when demand far exceeds supply (as opposed to filling the channel).
For Online Apple Stores, the sale is booked (and your credit card charged) when your order is "processed for shipment".
If resellers (including Apple stick and stucco) are handled as above -- it doesn't matter when/how resellers sell or book the sale -- it is already booked (or not) by Apple.
It was my understanding that 'stick and stucco' worked off the same inventory control as the online store.. a sale wasn't recorded until the card is charged.
Resellers... I don't know. But given how they report sales, I would think they don't book the sale until they see a 'restock' order (If I sent Best Buy 100,000, and they send me a restock of 150K, I sold 100K. if they send a restock of 95K, I sold 95K, with 5K still 'in channel').
But the logistical problems have to be taken into account. I would love to know what percentage of iPhones are sold from Apple's stores, their web site, the carriers (which we will know, at least from AT&T and Verizon), and other third party sellers.
If we knew that, we could make much better predictions. As I said, Apple can only get a certain number of people through their stores in a day. And what happens in a Best Buy? Do they book orders that must be picked up and billed a week later? How about Walmart, Radio Shack, and others. How about in other countries. What do their laws say? They may not be allowed to book a sale until the device in in the consumers hand, and is only then paid for.
There's too much we don't know. Maybe "more than 5 million" is about all they could do. That seems to be an awful lot of sales for a weekend.
No Apple books sell through. That means a committed sale to the end user.
Funny you should say that. I was just trying to figure those numbers out (with a wide margin for error).
What we know:
If was say that all 2 million units from the first 24 hours we re delivered on Friday then we find the stores account for 3 million or 60% of the unit sales. But we know those 2 million were not shipped so we have to take a smaller number which is where the estimates come in. If we assume that 1 million were ready for online sales for day one delivery then we have stores selling 80% of the units.
Anyone want to figure out how many units per store on average were moved this weekend?
I think you forgot your sarcmark.
You could've truncated that post by saying: "I've been an Apple user since..."
What do you think of it, Mr Steve Balmer ?
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/09/24/analyst-says-perhaps-millions-of-iphone-5-pre-orders-still-in-transit-not-included-in-announced-sales/