Valve's Gabe Newell says Apple is biggest threat in future of living room gaming

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 77
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    jragosta wrote: »
    What's up with that? Processors and graphics for PCs are upgraded on a regular basis, but Sony, Nintendo, and MS take years to upgrade theirs?

    Isn't this an issue with avoiding fragmentation? If you can't easily update the game and may need to do extensive testing and use work arounds to get that media to play in a now less optimized OS than before you can run into problems. They only things they seem to change is the look of the casing. Perhaps with their next gen consoles they make the set up more like a desktop OS where you can have various HW but then you suffer some performance loss so I doubt that will happen. I think there best bet is to have a game store so that tittles can have less testing before coming to market and then updated after the fact.
  • Reply 22 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BoxMacCary View Post



    Gabe Newell is a fool.

     


    Obviously. I just wish I'd be a fool like him, rich, successful and revered/envied by millions of gamers.

  • Reply 23 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SSquirrel View Post


     


    I don't think you understand the process of producing a new game console.  They spend millions in R&D costs and (most of the time) their new systems are not compatible with the old ones.  Console games are, by and large, written with hard coded expectations of system power to get the most out of the system.  Most home consoles are sold at a loss* and it takes years before they are making a profit from the console sales thru process shrinks and lower component costs.  Prior to that point, generally they are only making money from licensing feed related to game sales and accessories.


     


    If they would release a new console every couple of years, they would go out of business unless they drastically re-thought the whole process.  Which it appears they will probably have to do, but I wonder if home consoles as we have known them will last beyond this decade.  Sega died last decade and Atari, TurboGrafx and a number of others before that.  The traditional timeframe between new console releases was every 5 years before this generation.



     


    Drastically rethinking the process is the kind of thing Apple does well.  And the key to a successful disruption of an existing market is making sure that the current market leaders don't realize they are being disrupted.


     


    Gabe is very astute here -- most people don't want to spend $300 or so on a dedicated gaming console anymore than they wanted to spend $150 or so on a dedicated portable gaming console.  But look where the portable consoles are in comparison to smartphones.  Most people here would agree that most portable gaming is done on phones and tablets rather than a Nintendo or Sony portable.  


     


    The same is likely to play out in the home console space as well -- $99 for an Apple TV that uses the iPhones you already have as controllers is a pretty easy purchase if you already have the iPhones.  There are other cheap boxes on the market too.  For a casual gamer, why would you even consider anything else?


     


    And where the players are, the developers will follow.  Initially it will be casual games, but over time, there will be more and more games targeted at more sophisticated gamers.  It's very hard to fight inertia, and that's the position the traditional consoles are in now.  Add in the faster update cycle that the cheaper devices follow, and you have a recipe for disaster on the more expensive consoles.  My son's PSP Vita has already been outclassed in GPU/CPU specs by the iPad.  Where will the iPhone and iPad be when Sony finally updates the Vita?

  • Reply 24 of 77
    gwlaw99gwlaw99 Posts: 134member
    I don't see Halo 4 gamers thinking "Nova 3 is good enough." Dark Knight Rises is a fun ipad game, but it's not close to Arkham City. Apple might get a lot of customers who might not have otherwise bought a game system, but not those who want top console quality games (at least until the hardware catches up and developers spend more on development).
  • Reply 25 of 77
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    Isn't this an issue with avoiding fragmentation? If you can't easily update the game and may need to do extensive testing and use work arounds to get that media to play in a now less optimized OS than before you can run into problems. They only things they seem to change is the look of the casing. Perhaps with their next gen consoles they make the set up more like a desktop OS where you can have various HW but then you suffer some performance loss so I doubt that will happen. I think there best bet is to have a game store so that tittles can have less testing before coming to market and then updated after the fact.

    ssquirrel wrote: »
    I don't think you understand the process of producing a new game console.  They spend millions in R&D costs and (most of the time) their new systems are not compatible with the old ones.  Console games are, by and large, written with hard coded expectations of system power to get the most out of the system.  Most home consoles are sold at a loss* and it takes years before they are making a profit from the console sales thru process shrinks and lower component costs.  Prior to that point, generally they are only making money from licensing feed related to game sales and accessories.

    If they would release a new console every couple of years, they would go out of business unless they drastically re-thought the whole process.  Which it appears they will probably have to do, but I wonder if home consoles as we have known them will last beyond this decade.  Sega died last decade and Atari, TurboGrafx and a number of others before that.  The traditional timeframe between new console releases was every 5 years before this generation.

    I think you're both overestimating the complexity.

    I'm not suggesting an entirely new console every year. But CPU and GPU process technology increases all the time. How much reengineering does it require to use a 2.2 GHz processor instead of a 2.0 GHz processor? Answer? Essentially none.

    And it would increase sales. There is a subset of console purchasers who would buy the newer version even if the only change is a modest increase in clock speed.
  • Reply 26 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GTR View Post


     


    I went outside once.


     


    The graphics weren't that great.



    http://xkcd.com/395/

  • Reply 27 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by gwlaw99 View Post



    I don't see Halo 4 gamers thinking "Nova 3 is good enough." Dark Knight Rises is a fun ipad game, but it's not close to Arkham City. Apple might get a lot of customers who might not have otherwise bought a game system, but not those who want top console quality games (at least until the hardware catches up and developers spend more on development).


    1- Nova is too sexy for her shirt.


    2- Arkham City is a fabulous game, maybe trying comparing excellent games to okayish games is not the best way to prove your point?

  • Reply 28 of 77
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,405member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    What's up with that? Processors and graphics for PCs are upgraded on a regular basis, but Sony, Nintendo, and MS take years to upgrade theirs?

     




    I haven't played games since maybe the mid PS2 era, but whenever a new console came out, it took some time for major titles to appear. They aren't going to change it constantly as their base would become too fragmented. Instead games are made and optimized for a specific set of hardware. It works pretty well with the exception of PC ports.


     


    Quote:


    A large part of it is accessibility. I have my phone with me all the time. In order to use the Wii, I have to be at home on the couch.



     


    You're still viewing it in too limited of a sense. Games can be implemented as an additional function to a device that many of these people would have owned anyway. There is no additional barrier, especially if the games are cheap. It's not just that it's with you. You don't have to buy additional hardware before you can buy the games. $300 or so for a console may not seem that expensive, but it's enough to dissuade many users with a casual interest who just want to try it. $5 on an inexpensive iphone game is much less of a purchasing decision, especially for parents

  • Reply 29 of 77


    In my opinion, Linux is what will hurt the Steam box the most. A quick check shows there are currently 13 multi-player Steam games available on that OS. The majority of single-player games are also not AAA that gamers are used to playing. I think Gabe just loves Linux too much; he stated users could install Windows on it themselves when they get it. But really at that point I could just hook my desktop or laptop(with a good GPU) up to a tv and use Steam. In fact that's something I've already done and it works perfectly.


     


    Gabe should be more worried about not having games to play instead of making stupid comments like this. The reason the console guys do well and have an audience is because of all the exclusives. You can ONLY play Mario and Zelda games on Nintendo systems for instance.

  • Reply 30 of 77
    I actually went to this talk yesterday. Gabe was using an iPad to read off his notes and didn't come off as overly "anti-apple" as much as just being critical of systems that don't allow for new standards. I can totally see where he's coming from. You can't easily install the capability to stream DivX or Xvid to the AppleTV nor can you stream MKV to the Xbox without transcoding it. For a developer the walled garden can be frustrating, Valve can't use their own distribution method on a platform like iOS or AppleTV.

    The point he's trying to make is that Microsoft and Sony have their head up their ass and if and when Apple decides to compete very seriously in the living room space they will roll over Sony and Microsoft. The criticisms he voiced for Apple are the same criticisms he had for Sony/MS. It's not like he felt like those companies had a clue what they were doing.

    For the record, I can't wait for Apple to invade the living room.
  • Reply 31 of 77
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    jragosta wrote: »

    I think you're both overestimating the complexity.

    I'm not suggesting an entirely new console every year. But CPU and GPU process technology increases all the time. How much reengineering does it require to use a 2.2 GHz processor instead of a 2.0 GHz processor? Answer? Essentially none.

    And it would increase sales. There is a subset of console purchasers who would buy the newer version even if the only change is a modest increase in clock speed.

    So you're talking about going a year or two and then updating the CPU with only a 10% cycle increase but no architecture improvements? I don't see how that would make people want to get the latest model as any performance would be negligible and why wouldn't they have just used that faster CPU speed from the start.

    The only way this creates interest is if we're talking about significant changes in performance every year or two and that only happens when you change the architecture but it also leads to issues. As previously stated a move to digital-only content instead of cartridges and disks, and consoles that are internet connected could allow your model to work but it's still an undertaking in order to make sure that all games work and they are all optimized for the console the are on.
  • Reply 32 of 77
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    hmm wrote: »

    I haven't played games since maybe the mid PS2 era, but whenever a new console came out, it took some time for major titles to appear. They aren't going to change it constantly as their base would become too fragmented. Instead games are made and optimized for a specific set of hardware. It works pretty well with the exception of PC ports.

    No one is talking about major structural changes. Simply upgrading the CPU (or even the GPU) wouldn't prevent existing games from running - they'd just run faster.

    solipsismx wrote: »
    So you're talking about going a year or two and then updating the CPU with only a 10% cycle increase but no architecture improvements? I don't see how that would make people want to get the latest model as any performance would be negligible and why wouldn't they have just used that faster CPU speed from the start.

    I see. So there are no improvements in CPU speed over the 6 year lifetime of game console designs? Or only 10%? Over the 6 year lifetime of consoles, CPU performance will easily have doubled (probably considerably more than that).

    Besides, you don't think anyone would buy a system to replace a 3-4 year old console simply because it's faster? Let's see if we can do a comparison - lots of gamers buy $500-1,000 video cards every year or two to get a fraction more speed. Why wouldn't they buy a $300 console to do the same?

    solipsismx wrote: »
    The only way this creates interest is if we're talking about significant changes in performance every year or two and that only happens when you change the architecture but it also leads to issues.

    Not true at all. Look at PCs. When you upgrade from an i3 to an i7, does anything change besides performance? When you upgrade from a 2.0 GHz i7 to a 2.6 GHz i7 does anything change other than performance? For that matter, when you double the number of cores in your GPU, does anything change other than performance?

    When Apple switched from single core to dual core in the iPhone, I'm not aware of any games (or other apps) that stopped working. When the added a few more GPU cores, i'm also not aware of any games or other apps that stopped working.

    You can do quite a bit to improve performance without breaking applications or changing the architecture significantly. Over a 6 year period, there should be substantial improvements. And, as I pointed out earlier, even if the performance improvements are modest, gamers have demonstrated the willingness to shell out large amounts of money for performance gains - as shown by the number who upgrade video cards nearly annually.
  • Reply 33 of 77
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    jragosta wrote: »
    I see. So there are no improvements in CPU speed over the 6 year lifetime of game console designs? Or only 10%? Over the 6 year lifetime of consoles, CPU performance will easily have doubled (probably considerably more than that).

    No, not really. When an microarchitecture comes to market the speed options for that microarchitecture are posted. They don't tend to change. When there is a node change you can have faster cycle speeds for a given power/heat envelope but that's pretty much it. What does change is the architecture. That's where you get increased performance every year or two, not from simply bumping up the speed of the chip.
    Besides, you don't think anyone would buy a system to replace a 3-4 year old console simply because it's faster? Let's see if we can do a comparison - lots of gamers buy $500-1,000 video cards every year or two to get a fraction more speed. Why wouldn't they buy a $300 console to do the same?

    Again, you mentioned a CPU cycle bump of 10% which would result in an unnoticeable change in performance. You're now using video cards (GPU) for your example as well as a desktop OS. These points have already been addressed; I've even argued as to how you idea of increased console upgrade could work.


    PS: Ask yourself why neither Nintendo, Sony, nor MS have done this every year if there is a huge market for a 10% speed bump in the CPU cycles?
  • Reply 34 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post


    What sort of simplistic games does Newell think people want to play?


     


    Will the Apple TV run Crysis 3 at high resolution? image

     



    I bet Angry birds has more players than crysis, so more people want angry birds.


     


    If responsible parents start to tell kids to buy their own games, instead of paying 60 bucks for each one (or going to piratebay), or to go run outside/play football, you would realize how the number of crysis 3 players would aproach to 0 very quickly.


     


    I mean, games should be for fun, playing with friends and family. Getting fat, full of acne, closed on a room all week, loosing the ability to have a decent conversation with someone else without using a mic and headphones, IS NOT fun. Sorry to burst your bubble, but this is the tipical "pc gamer", the tipical "crysis 3 HD" guy.


     


    We are reaching a new era for gaming, and that's great. Gaming was so much fun when all the guys would go to lan houses together or a bar and play CS 1.6 for a one hour, than having a drink, talk, see a few girls... Look at what we have now.


     


    Thank god for Wii. I hope Apple does the right thing.



     


    Yeah, responsible parents should tell their kids to start buying their own clothes too, and pay some goddamn rent while they're at it. Damn freeloaders. /s


     


    Granted, there are some parents out there that spoil their kids to the core, but there has to be a middle ground between that and making them pay for all their entertainment.


     


    Just like there is a gigantic gray area between what you stereotype as the hardcore gamer, living in their mom's basement completely lacking any social skills or personal hygiene, and a commercially viable, smiling, nuclear family waving plastic wands at a tv screen.


     


    Wii was only revolutionary for making cheap motion sensors fun to use for a couple hours. MS built on that with Kinect and the modding/coding community pushed that even further. Personally, I prefer the precise input of a small controller I don't have to move (and to play alone to escape the monotony of social interaction that frankly taxes the energy of this introvert), but that doesn't mean I'm going to dictate what is or isn't fun for someone else.

  • Reply 35 of 77


    Originally Posted by walletinspector View Post

    interesting. I can already AirPlay my iPhone's apps Game's music to my tv. Only a matter of some coding (I would think) to put the video over AirPlay from the App Game to my TV.


     


    Say this to anyone else on any other forum and they'll scream at you for being a complete idiot for even suggesting that this is a valid solution.


     


    Personally I love it and think it's the only way that Apple should allow any non-video content on the Apple TV.

  • Reply 36 of 77
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,552member
    I disagree with his statement. I still think that games available on iOS for the most part differ in scope and quality to what can be found on consoles or pc.
    Apple could win in the game department on TV if they released a very powerful TV/box where existing and famous developers could bring the latest and greatest games. Until then, for many people, like me, playing AAA games is almost never on iOS games.
  • Reply 37 of 77
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Say this to anyone else on any other forum and they'll scream at you for being a complete idiot for even suggesting that this is a valid solution.

    Personally I love it and think it's the only way that Apple should allow any non-video content on the Apple TV.

    I wonder if you even need to have the game pre-loaded no the Apple TV. I think I'd prefer if the iOS game could be built with AirPlay and the Apple TV in mind with APIs to assist the developer so if they do want to play via the Apple TV the proper packages get loaded onto the Apple TV's NAND before you can play. This would eliminate clutter on the Apple TV if the iDevice is required for game play and reduce the need to purchase the Apple TV partition from the App Store.
  • Reply 38 of 77
    clemynxclemynx Posts: 1,552member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    I bet Angry birds has more players than crysis, so more people want angry birds.


     


    If responsible parents start to tell kids to buy their own games, instead of paying 60 bucks for each one (or going to piratebay), or to go run outside/play football, you would realize how the number of crysis 3 players would aproach to 0 very quickly.


     


    I mean, games should be for fun, playing with friends and family. Getting fat, full of acne, closed on a room all week, loosing the ability to have a decent conversation with someone else without using a mic and headphones, IS NOT fun. Sorry to burst your bubble, but this is the tipical "pc gamer", the tipical "crysis 3 HD" guy.


     


    We are reaching a new era for gaming, and that's great. Gaming was so much fun when all the guys would go to lan houses together or a bar and play CS 1.6 for a one hour, than having a drink, talk, see a few girls... Look at what we have now.


     


    Thank god for Wii. I hope Apple does the right thing.





    Games are not just lans and acne. You are accumulating stereotypes.


    What you are describing is a world with only casual games. That would be a success for sure, but for many it's a nightmare.


    We need great games, and great games cost a lot to produce.


    And I don't know why you are talking about the Wii. Do you think Nintendo could sell Super Mario Galaxy (a great game) at 2 dollars?


     


    Your argument is like saying 'let's only do 2 minutes long youtube videos. Movies are expensive and violent!"

  • Reply 39 of 77
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    clemynx wrote: »
    I disagree with his statement. I still think that games available on iOS for the most part differ in scope and quality to what can be found on consoles or pc.
    Apple could win in the game department on TV if they released a very powerful TV/box where existing and famous developers could bring the latest and greatest games. Until then, for many people, like me, playing AAA games is almost never on iOS games.

    How does one measure what is a AAA game? If we go by popularity then I think iOS games like Angry Birds will win hands down. Is that a good way to judge interest? How much money is there for games like Crysis than games like Angry Birds?

    I'm not a gamer but I do have several strategy and puzzle games that I play for a minute or two here and there. Words with Friends, Strategery, Sudoku, Chess with Friends. The most intensive game I play is Kingdom Rush (love this game!) which I assume "serious" gamers would find sad.
  • Reply 40 of 77

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MusicComposer View Post


    In my opinion, Linux is what will hurt the Steam box the most. A quick check shows there are currently 13 multi-player Steam games available on that OS. The majority of single-player games are also not AAA that gamers are used to playing. I think Gabe just loves Linux too much; he stated users could install Windows on it themselves when they get it. But really at that point I could just hook my desktop or laptop(with a good GPU) up to a tv and use Steam. In fact that's something I've already done and it works perfectly.


     


    Gabe should be more worried about not having games to play instead of making stupid comments like this. The reason the console guys do well and have an audience is because of all the exclusives. You can ONLY play Mario and Zelda games on Nintendo systems for instance.



    There are relatively easy ways to play many top windows native games play on linux.  I am sure that he is aware of this and will be incorporating this capability in a linux based Steambox.

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