We are in a pre-PC world. The tablet will increase in capability while maintaining its form factor, with add-ons. The iPadPC will have to use Intel chips and run current OS X software, including OS X. The current iOS software is very limited on the iPad and iPhone; it cannot stay that way.
I see the iPad and MacBook Air merging. It must.
The kitchen sink, washing machine, bath tub and shower each perform the same fundamental task of washing with water. The small kitchen sink is limited in what it can do when compared to a nice big bath tub.
Maybe it's time the kitchen sink, washing machine, bath and shower merge into one all capable device?
There already is a solution on the market for the minority who need full OS X on a tablet, it's the Modbook.
How many companies can say they both created and destroyed an entire industry?
Not many. I'd love a sneak peek into the future and see what Apple will be like in 50 years. Will it exist? Will it be many companies? Will it be dominant? Will it be an evil monster?
Is this really a post PC world? I think that was just marketing speak. Last time I looked Apple still sells several large screen desktop machines. I look at iPad as a compromise device. Sure, I use mine from time to time but I wouldn't characterize it as a entirely perfect experience.
For people who are always on the go or live in tiny little rooms, an iPad is a capable device for many usage scenarios, however, personally, I like my spacious home, full size SUV and my large screen desktop computer.
Trucks and SUVs haven't gone away. But they're not necessary for a lot of people. You can still buy them, but most people don't need to.
In the same way, PCs won't go away. But they won't be necessary for a lot of people. You'll still be able to buy them, but most people won't need to. Sales will (continue to) plummet.
Tablets are cheaper and/or more convenient for what most people do: email, web, social media, video, music, books, light office work.
An iPad isn't a great device for creating a spreadsheet with 500 macros and 30 tabs, or writing the great novel, or editing hours of 4K video, or editing thousands of camera RAW files, or writing software. You need a PC for that*. But how many people need that? Very few.
*--at least for now you do. With processors doubling in speed in all the time, and UI's getting more sophisticated, more and more (but not all) of these complex tasks will migrate to tablets over the next decade.
Yes - I agree. Not sure how, not sure when, but I suspect they will.
I am looking forward to plugging my iPhone into my 30" montior at work. Well, not literally 'plugging in' of course - no cables, please. The monitor will possibly have add ons that will enhance my iPhone so it can run dedicated graphics and video software. Oh wait... I look forward to my kids doing that.
What's "uncomfortable" is the walled garden approaches that kills off abilities that power users want and expect from a computing device. The need to hack a system to jailbreak to get functionality you would normally find on a full-fledged computer is not sitting right with me or many others.
Give me full access to the system on iOS, just like on OS X -- make it an option! iOS devices COULD be SO much more than they are today if Apple opened them up!
Your position, sir, is completely irrelevant today and in the extreme minority. It is from the past, almost pre-Cambrian.
Trucks and SUVs haven't gone away. But they're not necessary for a lot of people. You can still buy them, but most people don't need to.
In the same way, PCs won't go away. But they won't be necessary for a lot of people. You'll still be able to buy them, but most people won't need to. Sales will (continue to) plummet.
Tablets are cheaper and/or more convenient for what most people do: email, web, social media, video, music, books, light office work.
An iPad isn't a great device for creating a spreadsheet with 500 macros and 30 tabs, or writing the great novel, or editing hours of 4K video, or editing thousands of camera RAW files, or writing software. You need a PC for that*. But how many people need that? Very few.
*--at least for now you do. With processors doubling in speed in all the time, and UI's getting more sophisticated, more and more (but not all) of these complex tasks will migrate to tablets over the next decade.
Nice post, agree fully. That said, I mostly have trucks right now, but can foresee the addition of features and capabilities to tablets and phones such that these will take up the majority of the time we interface with "computers" in the future.
When the iPad was first announced, I couldn't help but think of Star Trek Next Generation and how they use small tablets and their comm badges to interact with the ship's computer for all their tasks. Is this where we're headed? Are we on the path already with cloud services and our PCs and mobile devices? Certainly things can improve greatly from where we are now. I think it will be exciting to see how things evolve.
What's "uncomfortable" is the walled garden approaches that kills off abilities that power users want and expect from a computing device. The need to hack a system to jailbreak to get functionality you would normally find on a full-fledged computer is not sitting right with me or many others.
Give me full access to the system on iOS, just like on OS X -- make it an option! iOS devices COULD be SO much more than they are today if Apple opened them up!
I'm surrounded by technical people who are stuck in this mindset: who believe that the only way to interact with a computer/device is via command-lines, filesystems, scripting languages, editing obscure preference files, etc. I want to have them all sit and try to explain why these things are so great to the average computer user (e.g. some friends of mine who only ever use their computer to save and view the photos they take). They'll quickly realize that they're speaking a foreign language when those people tune out after the first couple of sentences, and hopefully realize that the vast majority of people just want to use a computer/device to perform a discrete task quickly and then get away from it to do other things (which is where the iOS model excels).
If you're a software developer, all of that power is there to use via your apps. If you're not a developer, there are plenty of apps available which can provide this experience if you look hard enough. I have apps which provide an SSH terminal, VNC to a remote machine, file syncing apps which provide filesystem access for the files they manage, etc installed on my phone. The only thing lacking is access to a multitude of system UI preferences/tweaks. However, having spent countless hours in college tweaking various X11 window managers on Linux to do weird and wonderful things, I can honestly say it's a huge waste of time unless you're actually working in the field of UI design.
The domestic PC market may be on the decline but the PC market is not dead. Ask the thousands of businesses who use PC's in their everyday life. What is needed is for Microsoft to keep W8 for the domestic market and re-release W7 for businesses.
Not many. I'd love a sneak peek into the future and see what Apple will be like in 50 years....
Me too, 'tho since I'm already 71, that means I'll be 120 by then so I may not be as "interested". The good thing is my goal to live forever (so far, so good) is still in play ... shaky, but still.
That said, I mostly have trucks right now, but can foresee the addition of features and capabilities to tablets and phones such that these will take up the majority of the time we interface with "computers" in the future.
I find it amusing how so many people in this forum carry on about the virtues of the tiny screen of the iPad yet want an 80" TV in their living room.
Not following. Are you saying you want an 80" iPad?
No just finding it comical that in order to be like all the futurists among us, and become part of the post PC era I need to give up my large screen desktop because I can't justify it since I'm not editing 4K video. Just pointing out the irony of how a tiny iPad is all one will ever need for computing yet they scoff at a 40" TV as if that is so last decade.
Expect Windows 9 to rapidly turn things around in 2015. And before that, two more releases of Android, including Lemon Lime Soda Flavored Sorbet, with PowerWidgets that flash glittering rainbows with infrared advertising.
Hilarious!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
We are all living in an increasingly post PC world, and I remember all of the clueless fools who mocked that term and denied that it would ever come to pass. These morons should all be forced to walk around with huge dunce caps, permanently plastered onto their thick heads.
If you haven't yet, you ought to take a walk down memory lane at iPad Death Watch. It too is hilarious, especially the parts about the BlackberryMotorola Surface tablets that were going to take out the iPad just as soon as they became available.
Care to elaborate or is that just a snide remark to avoid a direct insult?
It's another way of saying "it's difficult to compare things that have absolutely nothing to do with one another."
While small televisions can, by definition, never get bigger, the iPad will certainly become as powerful as any individual could need from a computing device.
I find it amusing how so many people in this forum carry on about the virtues of the tiny screen of the iPad yet want an 80" TV in their living room.
I think there is a difference, although the lines will blend/blur even more in the future than they have started to already (with things like Airplay for e.g.).
I recently needed to use the projector/screen in the basement to try to do real work when I had to take our iMac in for service (Seagate drive replacement program, even though it was still fully operational). The focal depth difference from the 27" iMac (2560 x 1440 res, 2 - 2.5' away) versus the 135" screen (1920 x 1080 res, about 18' away) made working on the screen much more difficult for me. I think the larger screens are nice for watching content, but not so great for reading text, working in Terminal, etc (at least for me). Since iPhones and iPads are used at much closer distances, they are much better for things like such activities.
I have watched video on my iPhone, but certainly not as pleasant as on a TV/screen that's larger and further away (not counting the audio benefits of a full surround sound system utilized with the TV/screen vs the tiny speaker(s) on the phone/tablet).
We have a 50" TV and sit about 13' away (thus why we got a 720p set).
As the PC market continues to shrink even after the heavily hyped launch of Microsoft's Windows 8, consolidation among hardware makers and an industry-wide shakeup is likely "inevitable" in the coming years, according to a new analysis.
I could see some merging going on as well as some downsizing. One of Apple's key strategies has been:
"Apple doesn’t have the resources others have, and we have to choose which horses to ride. We try to ride those that are on the way up. If you choose wisely, you save yourself an enormous amount of work."
HP, Dell, Lenovo have been fighting each other for lower profits to gain high volume shipments. Working hard for little gain and now they have nothing in the industries that are on the way up.
Samsung and HTC are the HP and Dell of this generation and they are following the exact same strategy - too many products, too little quality control, too big of a push towards low price, low profit products and they'll run out of people to sell to. When they run out, they start to make the losses and Apple still has growth opportunities.
PCs: "more than half of the industry profits despite 10 percent share"
Phones: 3/4 of industry profits despite 20 percent share
Tablets: virtually all industry profits despite 60 percent share
The law of diminishing returns! Apple is doomed!!
Must follow Samsung, HP and seek higher share, lower profits, or will be forced to follow the history of Blackberry and Nokia in falling from success at the hands of the next Apple!!!
Apple must please the 'owners', the 'owners' demand lower profits as long as there's signs of growth. The richest company on the planet will soon be closing its doors should the warning bells go unheeded.
It's another way of saying "it's difficult to compare things that have absolutely nothing to do with one another."
While small televisions can, by definition, never get bigger, the iPad will certainly become as powerful as any individual could need from a computing device.
Sure they do. It has to do with screen size. The reason I prefer a large screen iMac is because it is a better user experience. I don't have to zoom/pan to see the contents of a web page.
A tiny wooden stool is just as pleasant of an experience to sit on as an overstuffed couch with an ottoman. /s
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman
We are in a pre-PC world. The tablet will increase in capability while maintaining its form factor, with add-ons. The iPadPC will have to use Intel chips and run current OS X software, including OS X. The current iOS software is very limited on the iPad and iPhone; it cannot stay that way.
I see the iPad and MacBook Air merging. It must.
The kitchen sink, washing machine, bath tub and shower each perform the same fundamental task of washing with water. The small kitchen sink is limited in what it can do when compared to a nice big bath tub.
Maybe it's time the kitchen sink, washing machine, bath and shower merge into one all capable device?
There already is a solution on the market for the minority who need full OS X on a tablet, it's the Modbook.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
How many companies can say they both created and destroyed an entire industry?
Not many. I'd love a sneak peek into the future and see what Apple will be like in 50 years. Will it exist? Will it be many companies? Will it be dominant? Will it be an evil monster?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Is this really a post PC world? I think that was just marketing speak. Last time I looked Apple still sells several large screen desktop machines. I look at iPad as a compromise device. Sure, I use mine from time to time but I wouldn't characterize it as a entirely perfect experience.
For people who are always on the go or live in tiny little rooms, an iPad is a capable device for many usage scenarios, however, personally, I like my spacious home, full size SUV and my large screen desktop computer.
Trucks and SUVs haven't gone away. But they're not necessary for a lot of people. You can still buy them, but most people don't need to.
In the same way, PCs won't go away. But they won't be necessary for a lot of people. You'll still be able to buy them, but most people won't need to. Sales will (continue to) plummet.
Tablets are cheaper and/or more convenient for what most people do: email, web, social media, video, music, books, light office work.
An iPad isn't a great device for creating a spreadsheet with 500 macros and 30 tabs, or writing the great novel, or editing hours of 4K video, or editing thousands of camera RAW files, or writing software. You need a PC for that*. But how many people need that? Very few.
*--at least for now you do. With processors doubling in speed in all the time, and UI's getting more sophisticated, more and more (but not all) of these complex tasks will migrate to tablets over the next decade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman
I see the iPad and MacBook Air merging. It must.
Yes - I agree. Not sure how, not sure when, but I suspect they will.
I am looking forward to plugging my iPhone into my 30" montior at work. Well, not literally 'plugging in' of course - no cables, please. The monitor will possibly have add ons that will enhance my iPhone so it can run dedicated graphics and video software. Oh wait... I look forward to my kids doing that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by libertyforall
What's "uncomfortable" is the walled garden approaches that kills off abilities that power users want and expect from a computing device. The need to hack a system to jailbreak to get functionality you would normally find on a full-fledged computer is not sitting right with me or many others.
Give me full access to the system on iOS, just like on OS X -- make it an option! iOS devices COULD be SO much more than they are today if Apple opened them up!
Your position, sir, is completely irrelevant today and in the extreme minority. It is from the past, almost pre-Cambrian.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bikertwin
Trucks and SUVs haven't gone away. But they're not necessary for a lot of people. You can still buy them, but most people don't need to.
In the same way, PCs won't go away. But they won't be necessary for a lot of people. You'll still be able to buy them, but most people won't need to. Sales will (continue to) plummet.
Tablets are cheaper and/or more convenient for what most people do: email, web, social media, video, music, books, light office work.
An iPad isn't a great device for creating a spreadsheet with 500 macros and 30 tabs, or writing the great novel, or editing hours of 4K video, or editing thousands of camera RAW files, or writing software. You need a PC for that*. But how many people need that? Very few.
*--at least for now you do. With processors doubling in speed in all the time, and UI's getting more sophisticated, more and more (but not all) of these complex tasks will migrate to tablets over the next decade.
Nice post, agree fully. That said, I mostly have trucks right now, but can foresee the addition of features and capabilities to tablets and phones such that these will take up the majority of the time we interface with "computers" in the future.
When the iPad was first announced, I couldn't help but think of Star Trek Next Generation and how they use small tablets and their comm badges to interact with the ship's computer for all their tasks. Is this where we're headed? Are we on the path already with cloud services and our PCs and mobile devices? Certainly things can improve greatly from where we are now. I think it will be exciting to see how things evolve.
Quote:
Originally Posted by libertyforall
What's "uncomfortable" is the walled garden approaches that kills off abilities that power users want and expect from a computing device. The need to hack a system to jailbreak to get functionality you would normally find on a full-fledged computer is not sitting right with me or many others.
Give me full access to the system on iOS, just like on OS X -- make it an option! iOS devices COULD be SO much more than they are today if Apple opened them up!
I'm surrounded by technical people who are stuck in this mindset: who believe that the only way to interact with a computer/device is via command-lines, filesystems, scripting languages, editing obscure preference files, etc. I want to have them all sit and try to explain why these things are so great to the average computer user (e.g. some friends of mine who only ever use their computer to save and view the photos they take). They'll quickly realize that they're speaking a foreign language when those people tune out after the first couple of sentences, and hopefully realize that the vast majority of people just want to use a computer/device to perform a discrete task quickly and then get away from it to do other things (which is where the iOS model excels).
If you're a software developer, all of that power is there to use via your apps. If you're not a developer, there are plenty of apps available which can provide this experience if you look hard enough. I have apps which provide an SSH terminal, VNC to a remote machine, file syncing apps which provide filesystem access for the files they manage, etc installed on my phone. The only thing lacking is access to a multitude of system UI preferences/tweaks. However, having spent countless hours in college tweaking various X11 window managers on Linux to do weird and wonderful things, I can honestly say it's a huge waste of time unless you're actually working in the field of UI design.
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman
Not many. I'd love a sneak peek into the future and see what Apple will be like in 50 years....
Me too, 'tho since I'm already 71, that means I'll be 120 by then so I may not be as "interested". The good thing is my goal to live forever (so far, so good) is still in play ... shaky, but still.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bikertwin
...but most people don't need to.
...but most people won't need to.
...But how many people need that?
I only need air, water, food, and shelter from the elements. I won't get into what I want...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUnfetteredMind
That said, I mostly have trucks right now, but can foresee the addition of features and capabilities to tablets and phones such that these will take up the majority of the time we interface with "computers" in the future.
I find it amusing how so many people in this forum carry on about the virtues of the tiny screen of the iPad yet want an 80" TV in their living room.
Originally Posted by mstone
I find it amusing how so many people in this forum carry on about the virtues of the tiny screen of the iPad yet want an 80" TV in their living room.
Humor, as disappointment, can often come from ignorance.
Not following. Are you saying you want an 80" iPad?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Not following. Are you saying you want an 80" iPad?
No just finding it comical that in order to be like all the futurists among us, and become part of the post PC era I need to give up my large screen desktop because I can't justify it since I'm not editing 4K video. Just pointing out the irony of how a tiny iPad is all one will ever need for computing yet they scoff at a 40" TV as if that is so last decade.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Humor, as disappointment, can often come from ignorance.
Care to elaborate or is that just a snide remark to avoid a direct insult?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrections
Expect Windows 9 to rapidly turn things around in 2015. And before that, two more releases of Android, including Lemon Lime Soda Flavored Sorbet, with PowerWidgets that flash glittering rainbows with infrared advertising.
Hilarious!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
We are all living in an increasingly post PC world, and I remember all of the clueless fools who mocked that term and denied that it would ever come to pass. These morons should all be forced to walk around with huge dunce caps, permanently plastered onto their thick heads.
If you haven't yet, you ought to take a walk down memory lane at iPad Death Watch. It too is hilarious, especially the parts about the Blackberry Motorola Surface tablets that were going to take out the iPad just as soon as they became available.
Originally Posted by mstone
Care to elaborate or is that just a snide remark to avoid a direct insult?
It's another way of saying "it's difficult to compare things that have absolutely nothing to do with one another."
While small televisions can, by definition, never get bigger, the iPad will certainly become as powerful as any individual could need from a computing device.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
I find it amusing how so many people in this forum carry on about the virtues of the tiny screen of the iPad yet want an 80" TV in their living room.
I think there is a difference, although the lines will blend/blur even more in the future than they have started to already (with things like Airplay for e.g.).
I recently needed to use the projector/screen in the basement to try to do real work when I had to take our iMac in for service (Seagate drive replacement program, even though it was still fully operational). The focal depth difference from the 27" iMac (2560 x 1440 res, 2 - 2.5' away) versus the 135" screen (1920 x 1080 res, about 18' away) made working on the screen much more difficult for me. I think the larger screens are nice for watching content, but not so great for reading text, working in Terminal, etc (at least for me). Since iPhones and iPads are used at much closer distances, they are much better for things like such activities.
I have watched video on my iPhone, but certainly not as pleasant as on a TV/screen that's larger and further away (not counting the audio benefits of a full surround sound system utilized with the TV/screen vs the tiny speaker(s) on the phone/tablet).
We have a 50" TV and sit about 13' away (thus why we got a 720p set).
My two cents
I could see some merging going on as well as some downsizing. One of Apple's key strategies has been:
"Apple doesn’t have the resources others have, and we have to choose which horses to ride. We try to ride those that are on the way up. If you choose wisely, you save yourself an enormous amount of work."
HP, Dell, Lenovo have been fighting each other for lower profits to gain high volume shipments. Working hard for little gain and now they have nothing in the industries that are on the way up.
Samsung and HTC are the HP and Dell of this generation and they are following the exact same strategy - too many products, too little quality control, too big of a push towards low price, low profit products and they'll run out of people to sell to. When they run out, they start to make the losses and Apple still has growth opportunities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
It's another way of saying "it's difficult to compare things that have absolutely nothing to do with one another."
While small televisions can, by definition, never get bigger, the iPad will certainly become as powerful as any individual could need from a computing device.
Sure they do. It has to do with screen size. The reason I prefer a large screen iMac is because it is a better user experience. I don't have to zoom/pan to see the contents of a web page.
A tiny wooden stool is just as pleasant of an experience to sit on as an overstuffed couch with an ottoman. /s