Awww, I did so want some slack from you. The reason that companies like IDC even exist is because it is hard to get hard numbers -- you know that as well as I do. Their numbers mean something, how much is in the eye of the beholder. The point of the root article of this thread was that Apple lost market share "and here is more evidence". Well, works for me.
Of course it works for trolls like you! It would be surprising if it didn't....
Aahhh. trolls have no meaning. Come check out some of my car forums. Douchebag will be the nicest thing you can be called.
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Sigh.
You are correct. I will say that on acurazine.com, those members can buy what they want. They even have an Android sub-forum. But they also don't get cultist because you decide to buy a Cadillac instead of an Acura.
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Sigh.
Even if whathisname - the angry guy,starts with Ant - got his error bands and exact methodologies for IDC's estimates from us random posters on the internet ( all of us non-employees of IDC), the seconded bolded part there would still be true because the error bands could hardly br more than +/-10%. This thread therefore should be on the issue of what, if anything, should be done ( or could be done) by Apple. If anything.
Instead we are arguing the credentials of a data mining company used, and referenced, by Apple in their conference calls - when the data is favorable. Including the last call. This point, which I have made in every thread, has failed to convince one guy on the internet, which would be fine if he didn't dominate the threads with this inane caterwauling; letting the adults discuss the actual stats, rather than the bone fides of the company presenting the stats.
A reasonable analogy. It's definitely true of many supermarkets (food industry) as well, and convenience stores where shelf space is at such a premium that producers have all kinds of "bribe like" programs to convince chains like 7-11 to stock their goods…
Sometimes it's really obvious. Like when the actual manufacturer themselves are delivering fresh product and carting off the old, expired stuff…
Please, please don't waste your valuable time (and, umm, mine) arguing with me. We have all decided that the sales numbers is what we DON'T have, and that the shipped numbers are a reasonable proxy. If you have sales numbers which prove your contention, bring'em. If not, you are blowing smoke out of where the sun don't shine.
"We have all decided that...shipped numbers are a reasonable proxy." First of all, speak for yourself. It's clear that we haven't ALL agreed that premise.
That isn't even the argument, however. I can agree that certain statistics COULD be a good 'proxy measure' of market activity. But it doesn't assume that ANY application of those numbers would result in a reasonable measure. Those numbers could be skewed to fit a narrative (spin), mixed with other numbers and written in a way to create a false perception, and so on. It's CLEAR that IDC consistently does this.
Here's my "proof". The results. One poster here wrote that "this chart shows that Apple is losing SALES". (Sales being the only true measure of market share.)
Mission accomplished, IDC?
The way that IDC mixes the numbers and spins the results, their track record for getting it clearly wrong. If I went exclusively by IDC reports and predictions over the past three years, I'd believe today that Apple had been a failing company throughout, would surely be hitting the bottom of the barrel in terms of market share, and surely on the verge of bankruptcy by now.
IDC is essentially forced to reset their start point each quarter, massage new irrelevant numbers into the mix to fit their narrative, and continue blaring (for more than three years continuously now, over a period of greatest growth for Apple IN OPPOSITION to the entire market) that Apple is losing share, failing against Microsoft and Google, etc.
Perhaps the most consistent doomsayers in the industry. Juxtaposed to Apple's ACTUAL performance throughout, I'd say IDC is pretty unreliable overall...
Again falsely promoting Microsoft having SHIPPED 3 millions 'tablets' as equal to EARNING 7.5% of market share (sales).
It would be more accurate (and honest) to say that "Microsoft padded retailer shelves with the equivalent of 7.5% of all tablets shipped". The true market share is unknown. However, judging by financials, user activity, and market wide responses to the devices (meaning, sales activity, not opinions) compared to others, we can extrapolate that they MIGHT have captured half a percent in real terms...
But, I see that we now praise companies simply for their high-yield manufacturing processes, and reward them with accolades of having gained share simply by exhibiting distribution prowess...
The ghost town that is The Microsoft Store tells a very different story.
Again falsely promoting Microsoft having SHIPPED 3 millions 'tablets' as equal to EARNING 7.5% of market share (sales).
It would be more accurate (and honest) to say that "Microsoft padded retailer shelves with the equivalent of 7.5% of all tablets shipped". The true market share is unknown. However, judging by financials, user activity, and market wide responses to the devices (meaning, sales activity, not opinions) compared to others, we can extrapolate that they MIGHT have captured half a percent in real terms...
But, I see that we now praise companies simply for their high-yield manufacturing processes, and reward them with accolades of having gained share simply by exhibiting distribution prowess...
The ghost town that is The Microsoft Store tells a very different story.
Read the $!$ link. These are windows tablets by a number of vendors. Go to BestBuy, you will see people buying Windows (and Android, and Apple) tablets. Plus, where do people get this idea that manufacturers make things for the landfill? Who does this? Why do you think they do? Oh, forget it, believe what you want...
NOTE: Those totals are the sum of both units (Surface RT and PRO) and span two quarters. In other words, since the original RT launch in October, and subsequent Pro launch in February, MS averaged about 250,000 units a month in real sales. So, 750,000 a quarter vs Apple's what, 19.5 million the last quarter alone?
In summary, the CONSISTENT reports across the 'net, indicate that Microsoft has been shipping about 3 million units per quarter and selling about a quarter of those (on average).
That isn't REMOTELY a 7.5% "market share", just based on what Apple reported sold alone, never mind the rest of the market (Amazon, Samsung). If Apple's numbers were equal to a 50% market share, then MS stands at less than 2%. Do you see how REALITY doesn't hold up to IDC's "reports"?
The disconnect of IDC's "shipped numbers = market sales" premise is clearly demonstrated, in just this example alone, to be so far off the mark as to be laughable. Extrapolate that to the rest of the market. Units shipped equals market share? Really?
I maintain my position that IDC are UNRELIABLE at best, and outright dishonest at worst. 'Nuff said, for sure.
[EDIT] Because I love math...
If MS shipped 3 million units, and earned a 7.5% market share, then 1 million units = a 2.5% share.
Based on that, it would mean that 40 million total units were SHIPPED into the market by all manufacturers over the quarter.
Apple reported 19.5 million iPads SOLD (not shipped) during that period. Almost half of all units shipped.
Apple likes to keep a few weeks worth of channel inventory at most. Assuming they'd mostly caught up with demand over the last quarter, and SHIPPED 'a few weeks of inventory' on top of units sold, they would have shipped closer to 25 million units, or a nearly 65% "market share" by this measure.
Sadly, the numbers from IDC and others don't add up. Apple reports "Sold" and they put that number in the "shipped" column… is it any wonder?
NOTE: Those totals are the sum of both units (Surface RT and PRO) and span two quarters. In other words, since the original RT launch in October, and subsequent Pro launch in February, MS averaged about 250,000 units a month in real sales. So, 750,000 a quarter vs Apple's what, 19.5 million the last quarter alone?
In summary, the CONSISTENT reports across the 'net, indicate that Microsoft has been shipping about 3 million units per quarter and selling about a quarter of those (on average).
That isn't REMOTELY a 7.5% "market share", just based on what Apple reported sold alone, never mind the rest of the market (Amazon, Samsung). If Apple's numbers were equal to a 50% market share, then MS stands at less than 2%. Do you see how REALITY doesn't hold up to IDC's "reports"?
The disconnect of IDC's "shipped numbers = market sales" premise is clearly demonstrated, in just this example alone, to be so far off the mark as to be laughable. Extrapolate that to the rest of the market. Units shipped equals market share? Really?
I maintain my position that IDC are UNRELIABLE at best, and outright dishonest at worst. 'Nuff said, for sure.
Are you intentionally lying or just can't read/ 7.5% is ALL WINDOWS TABLETS (as in Lenovo, Asus, Sony, Microsoft). Not to mention the fact that I explicitly did NOT attribute the numbers to IDC, but to Strategy Analytics. Oh, that's right, everyone is out to get Apple,...
For those of you wondering about Asus' shipments, they were the manufacturer behind the Nexus 7, Google's own 7" tablet (Google releases a Nexus tablet / phone every so often that runs stock Android, and they chose a manufacturer for each project independently). It's a quad core tablet with great resolution and starting at only $200. Works like a charm. You can get a 32GB version now for $250, which is a huge savings to the comparable iPad mini, which is a bit bigger but has a lower resolution display. How could the Nexus 7 NOT sell well? Don't discount Android just because you prefer iOS. It's not "settling" to get a non-iPad tablet.
I would bet that those oversized phones are inflating the Android tablet numbers.
(Phablet phones like the Samsung Galaxy Note.)
Not in this case. From their website, explaining the charts:
"IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo's Yoga) are not counted as Tablets."
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot
There is no mention of Microsoft's Surface in their report.
On the other hand, IDC has Windows RT with a market share of 0.4% for the quarter. I wouldn't call that "not bad"
My mistake, it was not just the RT, but windows-based tablets: Still, 7.5% is not bad (would have been great for just the RT).
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9238694/Windows_tablets_no_more_than_niche_player_in_Q1_research_firm_says
Of course it works for trolls like you! It would be surprising if it didn't....
Lol. It's fairly obvious by now that these guys have basic reading comprehension issues.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Of course it works for trolls like you! It would be surprising if it didn't....
Ah, civil discourse. There has actually been a lot more of it lately, but you seem to have missed the memo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
Ah, civil discourse. There has actually been a lot more of it lately, but you seem to have missed the memo.
Aahhh. trolls have no meaning. Come check out some of my car forums. Douchebag will be the nicest thing you can be called.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SCProfessor
Aahhh. trolls have no meaning. Come check out some of my car forums. Douchebag will be the nicest thing you can be called.
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Sigh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Sigh.
You are correct. I will say that on acurazine.com, those members can buy what they want. They even have an Android sub-forum. But they also don't get cultist because you decide to buy a Cadillac instead of an Acura.
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
Well, I can imagine that the car guys are earthy shade tree mechanics, whereas from what I deduce with the help of google the original insulter has no such excuse (especially as this discussion is purely technical, to wit: how much confidence should one have in IDC's data [answer: none of us have have any idea how they get their numbers, but the fact that they seem to be trusted in the industry indicates that there is a fair amount of signal in the noise]. I don't believe any sane (or even mildly insane) person is disputing the one sentence takeaway, that is: Apple is losing market share, especially worldwide. It will certainly continue losing market share until it brings out its new generation of gadgets, after which the crystal ball clouds up).
I am guessing that these forums bring out the worst in people in the same way driving does: the mild amount of anonymity allows them to act much more rudely than they would face to face.
Sigh.
Even if whathisname - the angry guy,starts with Ant - got his error bands and exact methodologies for IDC's estimates from us random posters on the internet ( all of us non-employees of IDC), the seconded bolded part there would still be true because the error bands could hardly br more than +/-10%. This thread therefore should be on the issue of what, if anything, should be done ( or could be done) by Apple. If anything.
Instead we are arguing the credentials of a data mining company used, and referenced, by Apple in their conference calls - when the data is favorable. Including the last call. This point, which I have made in every thread, has failed to convince one guy on the internet, which would be fine if he didn't dominate the threads with this inane caterwauling; letting the adults discuss the actual stats, rather than the bone fides of the company presenting the stats.
Yup I read it wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip
So it's like the retailer is renting shelf space.
That's very interesting
A reasonable analogy. It's definitely true of many supermarkets (food industry) as well, and convenience stores where shelf space is at such a premium that producers have all kinds of "bribe like" programs to convince chains like 7-11 to stock their goods…
Sometimes it's really obvious. Like when the actual manufacturer themselves are delivering fresh product and carting off the old, expired stuff…
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
Please, please don't waste your valuable time (and, umm, mine) arguing with me. We have all decided that the sales numbers is what we DON'T have, and that the shipped numbers are a reasonable proxy. If you have sales numbers which prove your contention, bring'em. If not, you are blowing smoke out of where the sun don't shine.
"We have all decided that...shipped numbers are a reasonable proxy." First of all, speak for yourself. It's clear that we haven't ALL agreed that premise.
That isn't even the argument, however. I can agree that certain statistics COULD be a good 'proxy measure' of market activity. But it doesn't assume that ANY application of those numbers would result in a reasonable measure. Those numbers could be skewed to fit a narrative (spin), mixed with other numbers and written in a way to create a false perception, and so on. It's CLEAR that IDC consistently does this.
Here's my "proof". The results. One poster here wrote that "this chart shows that Apple is losing SALES". (Sales being the only true measure of market share.)
Mission accomplished, IDC?
The way that IDC mixes the numbers and spins the results, their track record for getting it clearly wrong. If I went exclusively by IDC reports and predictions over the past three years, I'd believe today that Apple had been a failing company throughout, would surely be hitting the bottom of the barrel in terms of market share, and surely on the verge of bankruptcy by now.
IDC is essentially forced to reset their start point each quarter, massage new irrelevant numbers into the mix to fit their narrative, and continue blaring (for more than three years continuously now, over a period of greatest growth for Apple IN OPPOSITION to the entire market) that Apple is losing share, failing against Microsoft and Google, etc.
Perhaps the most consistent doomsayers in the industry. Juxtaposed to Apple's ACTUAL performance throughout, I'd say IDC is pretty unreliable overall...
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Apple reports 'net sales' (as I think the others do too) -- returns will likely be reported a quarter late.
^that
Quote:
Originally Posted by igriv
My mistake, it was not just the RT, but windows-based tablets: Still, 7.5% is not bad (would have been great for just the RT).
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9238694/Windows_tablets_no_more_than_niche_player_in_Q1_research_firm_says
Again falsely promoting Microsoft having SHIPPED 3 millions 'tablets' as equal to EARNING 7.5% of market share (sales).
It would be more accurate (and honest) to say that "Microsoft padded retailer shelves with the equivalent of 7.5% of all tablets shipped". The true market share is unknown. However, judging by financials, user activity, and market wide responses to the devices (meaning, sales activity, not opinions) compared to others, we can extrapolate that they MIGHT have captured half a percent in real terms...
But, I see that we now praise companies simply for their high-yield manufacturing processes, and reward them with accolades of having gained share simply by exhibiting distribution prowess...
The ghost town that is The Microsoft Store tells a very different story.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical
Again falsely promoting Microsoft having SHIPPED 3 millions 'tablets' as equal to EARNING 7.5% of market share (sales).
It would be more accurate (and honest) to say that "Microsoft padded retailer shelves with the equivalent of 7.5% of all tablets shipped". The true market share is unknown. However, judging by financials, user activity, and market wide responses to the devices (meaning, sales activity, not opinions) compared to others, we can extrapolate that they MIGHT have captured half a percent in real terms...
But, I see that we now praise companies simply for their high-yield manufacturing processes, and reward them with accolades of having gained share simply by exhibiting distribution prowess...
The ghost town that is The Microsoft Store tells a very different story.
Read the $!$ link. These are windows tablets by a number of vendors. Go to BestBuy, you will see people buying Windows (and Android, and Apple) tablets. Plus, where do people get this idea that manufacturers make things for the landfill? Who does this? Why do you think they do? Oh, forget it, believe what you want...
In a nutshell, a tad more honest results-based reporting than igriv, IDC, et al...
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2030986/microsoft-surface-sales-underwelm-at-an-estimated-1-5-million-units.html
NOTE: Those totals are the sum of both units (Surface RT and PRO) and span two quarters. In other words, since the original RT launch in October, and subsequent Pro launch in February, MS averaged about 250,000 units a month in real sales. So, 750,000 a quarter vs Apple's what, 19.5 million the last quarter alone?
In summary, the CONSISTENT reports across the 'net, indicate that Microsoft has been shipping about 3 million units per quarter and selling about a quarter of those (on average).
That isn't REMOTELY a 7.5% "market share", just based on what Apple reported sold alone, never mind the rest of the market (Amazon, Samsung). If Apple's numbers were equal to a 50% market share, then MS stands at less than 2%. Do you see how REALITY doesn't hold up to IDC's "reports"?
The disconnect of IDC's "shipped numbers = market sales" premise is clearly demonstrated, in just this example alone, to be so far off the mark as to be laughable. Extrapolate that to the rest of the market. Units shipped equals market share? Really?
I maintain my position that IDC are UNRELIABLE at best, and outright dishonest at worst. 'Nuff said, for sure.
[EDIT] Because I love math...
If MS shipped 3 million units, and earned a 7.5% market share, then 1 million units = a 2.5% share.
Based on that, it would mean that 40 million total units were SHIPPED into the market by all manufacturers over the quarter.
Apple reported 19.5 million iPads SOLD (not shipped) during that period. Almost half of all units shipped.
Apple likes to keep a few weeks worth of channel inventory at most. Assuming they'd mostly caught up with demand over the last quarter, and SHIPPED 'a few weeks of inventory' on top of units sold, they would have shipped closer to 25 million units, or a nearly 65% "market share" by this measure.
Sadly, the numbers from IDC and others don't add up. Apple reports "Sold" and they put that number in the "shipped" column… is it any wonder?
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical
In a nutshell, a tad more honest results-based reporting than igriv, IDC, et al...
http://www.pcworld.com/article/2030986/microsoft-surface-sales-underwelm-at-an-estimated-1-5-million-units.html
NOTE: Those totals are the sum of both units (Surface RT and PRO) and span two quarters. In other words, since the original RT launch in October, and subsequent Pro launch in February, MS averaged about 250,000 units a month in real sales. So, 750,000 a quarter vs Apple's what, 19.5 million the last quarter alone?
In summary, the CONSISTENT reports across the 'net, indicate that Microsoft has been shipping about 3 million units per quarter and selling about a quarter of those (on average).
That isn't REMOTELY a 7.5% "market share", just based on what Apple reported sold alone, never mind the rest of the market (Amazon, Samsung). If Apple's numbers were equal to a 50% market share, then MS stands at less than 2%. Do you see how REALITY doesn't hold up to IDC's "reports"?
The disconnect of IDC's "shipped numbers = market sales" premise is clearly demonstrated, in just this example alone, to be so far off the mark as to be laughable. Extrapolate that to the rest of the market. Units shipped equals market share? Really?
I maintain my position that IDC are UNRELIABLE at best, and outright dishonest at worst. 'Nuff said, for sure.
Are you intentionally lying or just can't read/ 7.5% is ALL WINDOWS TABLETS (as in Lenovo, Asus, Sony, Microsoft). Not to mention the fact that I explicitly did NOT attribute the numbers to IDC, but to Strategy Analytics. Oh, that's right, everyone is out to get Apple,...
(Phablet phones like the Samsung Galaxy Note.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by macpd
I would bet that those oversized phones are inflating the Android tablet numbers.
(Phablet phones like the Samsung Galaxy Note.)
Not in this case. From their website, explaining the charts:
"IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo's Yoga) are not counted as Tablets."