Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.
Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Right?
Considering Apple reports actual numbers AND breaks out channel inventory (what is shipped and not sold) AND turns their inventory every 7 days or so, you can't really make a comparison.
The whole "ships vs. sold" argument is only really useful when a company releases a new product and then makes some grandiose announcement of how many they shipped to retail stores (often from some unnamed executive or source). This is meant to show "demand" when it really is meaningless as an indicator of how much consumer demand there is for the product.
...then you hear the company report much lower shipments the next quarter, or there are rapid discounts applied.
A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.
India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.
India is totally irrelevant for the short term. From jan to march, 120,000 iPhones were sold in India. This has no bearing at all upon the overall iPhone numbers.
An analyst quoted in the article was also criticizing Apple for making the iPhone cheaper in India, which is exactly what I predicted would happen. Apple will be criticized regardless of what they do.
The country barely has 3G (let alone 4G). Most smartphones are useless in large parts of India.
Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.
Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
Go home, softeky.
It's a legitimate question. One I'm guessing by your retort that you don't have the answer to but you'll quickly question any Samsung sales numbers.
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
When you include carrier sales performance guarantees via contract (where the carrier agrees to either sell a minimum of x number of phones or else eat the cost), it's a very safe bet that shipments=sales in Apple's figures, especially since (as noted elsewhere) Apple provides separate channel numbers. The carriers agree to it (among other concessions, such as no nagware/adware, etc) because the iPhone is that much in demand.
This is much unlike the, say, Windows Phones, because as a minority player, Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, or etc cannot force such guarantees, and have the opposite problem of having to entice carriers.
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.
I'm not sure if embarrassed is the right word. I think more accurately, they don't want to report those numbers as it would give a real idea of where they stand and how they're really doing in the market....all of which can only serve to negatively affect them.
Personally I'm impressed that Apple's Q3 numbers are bound to be this good considering there has not been 1 single new iOS device since October of 2012. Excluding the negligible 128 GB iPad.
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
Nope. If you read Apple's quarterly statements and the 'fine print', they consider a sale to be at the point when the product is shipped. The same as every other hardware company, but with more ambiguous wording...
Nope. If you read Apple's quarterly statements and the 'fine print', they consider a sale to be at the point when the product is shipped. The same as every other hardware company, but with more ambiguous wording...
They also estimate channel inventory.
And are more transparent than other competitors, who rarely break out numbers, or just cherry pick data.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by avarma
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/hardware/Apple-iPhone-sales-see-sharp-fall-in-India/articleshow/21116370.cms
Troll comment especially for a first post. Where is your intelligent comments to go with the link?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ombra2105
So just so I get this:
Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.
Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Right?
Considering Apple reports actual numbers AND breaks out channel inventory (what is shipped and not sold) AND turns their inventory every 7 days or so, you can't really make a comparison.
The whole "ships vs. sold" argument is only really useful when a company releases a new product and then makes some grandiose announcement of how many they shipped to retail stores (often from some unnamed executive or source). This is meant to show "demand" when it really is meaningless as an indicator of how much consumer demand there is for the product.
...then you hear the company report much lower shipments the next quarter, or there are rapid discounts applied.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.
India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.
India is totally irrelevant for the short term. From jan to march, 120,000 iPhones were sold in India. This has no bearing at all upon the overall iPhone numbers.
An analyst quoted in the article was also criticizing Apple for making the iPhone cheaper in India, which is exactly what I predicted would happen. Apple will be criticized regardless of what they do.
The country barely has 3G (let alone 4G). Most smartphones are useless in large parts of India.
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
apple did not report anything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ombra2105
So just so I get this:
Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.
Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.
Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
Go home, softeky.
It's a legitimate question. One I'm guessing by your retort that you don't have the answer to but you'll quickly question any Samsung sales numbers.
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
That may or may not be true of others, but we really don't know, since they don't report volumes or channel data. One has to reasonably assume that they don't report because they're embarrassed to admit the number of unsold devices sitting on store shelves.
Too many fools in this thread. For those of you who asked "sale or shipment" This is Morgan Stanley's not Apple's. Fools.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Everyone reports 'shipments'. However, Apple is the only one that, in addition: (i) provides channel inventory data; and (ii) reports numbers (not just $ figures) shipped. As a result, we can fairly precisely estimate Apple's sales.
Based on that information, TS is right: Apple pretty much sells out its shipments.
When you include carrier sales performance guarantees via contract (where the carrier agrees to either sell a minimum of x number of phones or else eat the cost), it's a very safe bet that shipments=sales in Apple's figures, especially since (as noted elsewhere) Apple provides separate channel numbers. The carriers agree to it (among other concessions, such as no nagware/adware, etc) because the iPhone is that much in demand.
This is much unlike the, say, Windows Phones, because as a minority player, Microsoft, Nokia, HTC, or etc cannot force such guarantees, and have the opposite problem of having to entice carriers.
Everyone remember that Katy is the 2nd worst Apple analyst:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/02/17/apple-analysts-earnings-smackdown/
And she has been terrible for a really long time - back in 2009 she was bearish when Apple was at $77/share.
I'm an Apple bull, and have most of my net worth in Apple stock, but having an idiot like Huberty on your side means nothing.
For reference, here are last year numbers:
Q3,2012:
iphone: 26
ipad: 17
ipod: 6.7
mac: 4
EPS: $9.32
gross margins: 42.8%
operating margins: 33.4%
Thank you, that wasn't that hard, was it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69
.... that wasn't that hard, was it?
Wtf are you being snarky about?
I'm not sure if embarrassed is the right word. I think more accurately, they don't want to report those numbers as it would give a real idea of where they stand and how they're really doing in the market....all of which can only serve to negatively affect them.
Excluding the negligible 128 GB iPad.
It's dasanman.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
But I just saw today that an analyst reduced their price target. That means Apple is doomed, no?
No, Apple is not doomed, but AAPL is for till the end of 2013 at least.
It actually wasn't directed at you really, I appreciate you actually answering versus just saying "go away".
Probably aren't taking into consideration the impact of the rumored low cost iPhone is having either in a market like India.
Quote:
Originally Posted by softeky
"Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
Nope. If you read Apple's quarterly statements and the 'fine print', they consider a sale to be at the point when the product is shipped. The same as every other hardware company, but with more ambiguous wording...
They also estimate channel inventory.
And are more transparent than other competitors, who rarely break out numbers, or just cherry pick data.