BMO sees Apple selling 189M iPhones & 12M Watches in fiscal 2015, raises target to $110

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    IMO his target price of $110 is very low for his assumptions.

     

    That gives Apple a PE of 15.  Lower than right now.  Ridiculous.

     

    With his projectors Apple would be showing 20-25% EPS growth.  That deserves a PE between 17 and 19.

     

    My target price for 9.30.15 is $130


    I agree, none of these analyst ever go out on a limb on their target price. Why don't they be bold and say $150+? Anyone can say they think the price will go to 110, while it its currently at 100.

  • Reply 22 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

    As for AAPL, it's looking good today again!


    Bought some calls yesterday.... cashing out today, and planning a nice dinner out with the family over the weekend.... :smokey:

  • Reply 23 of 41
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    adonissmu wrote: »
    This analysis assumes the watch will be finished and sold. All predictions are all based on a base set of assumptions. I can't believe you guys are trying to drag the analyst because they assumed the watch would in fact be released in 2015 given Apple's recent history.

    What do you mean "givenApple's recent history"?
  • Reply 24 of 41
    joshajosha Posts: 901member

    Little respect for analyst predictions here, particularly for BMO. When I had a brokerage account at BMO they continually wanted me to dump my very risky Apple stocks, a very dumb suggestion which would have cost me lots of money.

    But they have hit on one thing right, the iPhone6+ will reduce sales of the iPad Mini, but by how much is just a big guess!

  • Reply 25 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JoshA View Post

     

    But they have hit on one thing right, the iPhone6+ will reduce sales of the iPad Mini....


    Yeah, you know this because you have perfect foresight...

  • Reply 26 of 41
    sog35 wrote: »
    That's a 26% growth in unit sales.  Thats a very nice number.

    Add the increase in Average Selling Pricing and we see 20-25% EPS growth.

    IMO many analysis are gun shy of giving Apple a $120-$140 target because they don't want to get embarassed like many did in 2012.  But looking at their revenue/profit estimates its clear to me there REAL price target is in the $120-$140 area.

    I was being a little sarcastic with the "paltry" 189 million figure. Analysts have typically never been happy with apple's performance even though no tech company matches them.
  • Reply 27 of 41
    flaneur wrote: »
    What do you mean "givenApple's recent history"?
    Apple has released always when they announced a new product. When was the last time gheyve cancelled a new product they planned to release.
  • Reply 28 of 41
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

     

    Bought some calls yesterday.... cashing out today, and planning a nice dinner out with the family over the weekend.... :smokey:


     

    I just bought some common yesterday.

     

    I have to look into options sometime, but I admit that it seems kind of foreign to me, with all this talk of theta, beta, delta etc.

     

    Things are looking good for AAPL right now going into monday. I often do the AAPL "poor man's algorithm", buying a little on friday and then selling on monday or tuesday, and that usually works out ok, more often than not.

     

    One thing that slightly concerns me is that I read that consumer reports will be releasing a video of their bend test on the new iPhones, and since they've historically been kind of anti-Apple in the past, we'll just have to see what the results are.

  • Reply 29 of 41
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    adonissmu wrote: »
    Apple has released always when they announced a new product. When was the last time gheyve cancelled a new product they planned to release.

    Right, agreed.
  • Reply 30 of 41
    apple ][ wrote: »
    I just bought some common yesterday.

    I have to look into options sometime, but I admit that it seems kind of foreign to me, with all this talk of theta, beta, delta etc.

    Things are looking good for AAPL right now going into monday. I often do the AAPL "poor man's algorithm", buying a little on friday and then selling on monday or tuesday, and that usually works out ok, more often than not.

    One thing that slightly concerns me is that I read that consumer reports will be releasing a video of their bend test on the new iPhones, and since they've historically been kind of anti-Apple in the past, we'll just have to see what the results are.

    Meh, tbh, it's a matter of luck, just as your strategy is. It's just that options give you a little bit of time to see what develops.... Buying a call option is essentially equivalent to taking on debt to buy the stock, without the hassle of actually taking out a loan or buying the stock.

    I stick to very basic strategies, such as buying a call or a put. With such strategies, the 'greeks' you mention are useless jargon meant to obfuscate more than anything else. Incidentally, many brokerages, such as Schwab, have excellent tutorials. Might be worth your time checking one of those out.

    I agree with you on CR.
  • Reply 31 of 41
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post



    I agree with you on CR.

     

    Good news for Apple!

     

    The consumer reports test just came out!

     

    They tested both iPhone 6s and also some phones from other manufacturers.

     

    Basically, the whole bend-gate crap was a big bunch of BS! 

     

    All the phones we tested showed themselves to be pretty tough. The iPhone 6 Plus, the more robust of the new iPhones in our testing, started to deform when we reached 90 pounds of force, and came apart with 110 pounds of force. With those numbers, it slightly outperformed the HTC One (which is largely regarded as a sturdy, solid phone), as well as the smaller iPhone 6, yet underperformed some other smart phones.

     

    http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2014/09/consumer-reports-tests-iphone-6-bendgate/index.htm

     

    I assume that this will be a front page story on AI pretty soon.

  • Reply 32 of 41
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    adonissmu wrote: »
    Apple has released always when they announced a new product. When was the last time gheyve cancelled a new product they planned to release.
    The open specification for FaceTime?

    ZFS support?

    Resolution independence?
  • Reply 33 of 41
    crowley wrote: »
    The open specification for FaceTime?

    ZFS support?

    Resolution independence?
    Have you seen the new apple store app and xcode6?
  • Reply 34 of 41
    joshajosha Posts: 901member
    sog35 wrote: »
    Apple would love to sell iPhones instead of an iPad Mini

    iPadMini average sell price = $450 x 30% GP = $135
    iPhone 6+ average sell price = $850 x 50% GP = $425

    Apple would literally have to sell 3 iPad mini's to get the same profit as a single 6+

    This is like worrying an iPhone is canibalizing iPod Touch sales.
    CANIBALIZE AWAY

    But in my case it's an iPhone 6+, instead of an iPhone 6 plus an iPad Mini.
    If your GP figures are correct I guess Apple should still be happy with me.
  • Reply 35 of 41
    Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

    Apple has released always when they announced a new product. When was the last time gheyve cancelled a new product they planned to release.



    Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

    The open specification for FaceTime?



    ZFS support?



    Resolution independence?

     

    Adding one more to this list:

     

    On Apple.com after the announcement of… geez, it was Leopard, I think…. there was a feature regarding Boot Camp that was the precursor for the modern state restoration in OS X.

     

    The website said that “When you reboot to OS X, all your applications will be open just as you left them before”. It was taken down within about an hour of being put up (because Apple clearly didn’t have it finalized and decided against it), and while it’s part of OS X now, it was NOT when it was promised.

     

    Oh, and remember the keynote featuring new features to Photo Booth? Remember Steve Jobs himself (and Phil Schiller) spent minutes on the feature that cut a mouth hole out of a portrait and let you be its mouth? Steve was George Washington and Phil was Steve Ballmer.

     

    That has never made it into any version of Photo Booth, which is a crying shame because it was my favorite part of that keynote.

  • Reply 36 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    The watch isn't finished yet. How can you predict anything on it.

     

    A completely inaccurate prediction based on absolutely nothing is still a prediction.

  • Reply 37 of 41
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,024member
    12M watches is waaaayy low....
  • Reply 38 of 41
    Originally Posted by thrang View Post

    12M watches is waaaayy low....



    As a nigh-forced accessory to the iPhone, it sounds about right.

  • Reply 39 of 41
    Adding one more to this list:

    On Apple.com after the announcement of… geez, it was Leopard, I think…. there was a feature regarding Boot Camp that was the precursor for the modern state restoration in OS X.

    The website said that “When you reboot to OS X, all your applications will be open just as you left them before”. It was taken down within about an hour of being put up (because Apple clearly didn’t have it finalized and decided against it), and while it’s part of OS X now, it was NOT when it was promised.

    Oh, and remember the keynote featuring new features to Photo Booth? Remember Steve Jobs himself (and Phil Schiller) spent minutes on the feature that cut a mouth hole out of a portrait and let you be its mouth? Steve was George Washington and Phil was Steve Ballmer.

    That has never made it into any version of Photo Booth, which is a crying shame because it was my favorite part of that keynote.

    That could be a great idea for a "Clutch Cargo"-style app.

  • Reply 40 of 41
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,024member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

     



    As a nigh-forced accessory to the iPhone, it sounds about right.




    If his estimate of 189M new iPhone sales is generally accurate, coupled with existing active (non-upgrading) iPhone users who are not part of the 189M  what might Apple's worldwide active user base be? I've seen estimates of 400-450M today, so this will only grow over the next year Perhaps 500M? Still, say 350M will be usable with the Apple Watch..

     

    An 5-7% buy in from a 350M available base would be 17.5-24.5M. I don't think 5-7% is unreasonable. Plus, the watch will provide basic functions on its own (time/day/date, possibly timer/stopwatch etc.) So while the main benefit is when paired, you can get analog-equivalent usefulness even without a iPhone. But none of us go anywhere without our phones much anyway, so the forced symbiotic nature of the Watch/Phone is not an issue for most customers.

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