This is the stupidest kind of hyperventilation over a meaningless "milestone" number. We should resist this kind of talk like we resist the rabid hooting of a group of juvenile beta-male chimps.
The only thing more obnoxious than triumphalism is anticipatory triumphalism.
There is a HUGE difference between Apple late 2012 and now.
First off from 2010- mid 2012 Apple was growing earnings/revenue at a massive pace. It was growing 50-100% a quarter. Than at the end of 2012 beginning of 2013 revenue growth all but stalled and earnings growth went negative. That is a HUGE SHIFT. Because of this tons of GROWTH investors and HEDGE FUNDS dumped their stock. It took a very long time for the VALUE investors to become fully invested in Apple. That transition destroyed Apple's stock price.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple again is growing earnings at 15-20%. But since most of the Growth investors are already out the price has been steady. Even if Apple has a bad quarter the stock will stabalize because of the massive buyback, nice dividend, and the shareholder profile of value/income investors.
Saying that one bad quarter of iPhone sales will tank the stock is stupidity. Thats like saying one bad quarter of hamburger sales at McDonalds will tank the stock or one bad quarter of oil sales will tank Exxon.
C'mon, be respectful, Rogifan's hardly a troll like some of the others here.
One bad quarter would have repercussions, and you know it. I doubt it'd lose half its value, but it would be a negative effect.
Exactly. My point is that fixating on a trillion dollars as some kind of goal or marker point is deeply irrational. It only has meaning, like all even numbers ending in zero, because we have ten fingers. That's how primitive this stuff is.
We can't do anything about it, but I'm saying that it's bad juju to participate in gloating about it. It's shameful, really, how grubby this number worship is. There are many warnings in literature about it. It falls under the "hubris" rubric. Shelley on contemplating the ruins of Ozymandias: "Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair."
It's all about iPhone. Apple has one bad quarter where iPhone sales aren't great or margins have declined and Wall Street will dump the stock in a hurry. There's nothing fundamentally different about Apple now as there was in the fall of 2012 when the stock started taking a nose dive. The stock market has never been rational when it comes to Apple.
You're half right. The market has never been rational when it comes to apple.
You're half wrong. There is a lot fundamentally different Apple:
Highest iphone sales in history and rising
Apple pay
Apple watch coming
Highest EPS and rising
Deal with all carriers in china
Vast expansion in India
Worlds largest capital return program
For apple to justify a trillion dollars it has to have at least 90-100B in PROFITS. Right now it has 60B. It would have to find a way to dump another 40B to its bottom line. No easy feat at this large number (yes law of large numbers does exist).
Not only would it have to find 100B in profits annually but it would have to show that it can sustain that level for at least 8 to 10 years. I'm not quite sure I see this as happening. Apple lives and dies by iphone now. ipad has fallen to the wayside and didn't make it to a consistent iPhone level seller.
For apple to have another huge upgrade cycle they have to find something. The something this time was simple. A large screen. It wasn't a gamble. Samsung and others proved this is what the market wanted. There is nothing out there now that Apple can trail that would create another huge upgrade cycle. I think a thicker phone with 2 to 3 day plus battery might be something or a folding screen. These could be 5 to 10 years off though.
If you are long you believe apple will sell iPhones for 10 years and grow yet another 50% from here and hold margin as well. That is the bet you are placing. I just can't drink that Kool-Aid. My advice for anyone long apple is to hold the stock and time your exit accordingly. At some point the stock will clearly not justify the risk whether that is a function of visibility or share price (or both).
One other investing goal I try to stick with is being in stocks I think at least could be a 5 or 10 bagger over the next 5 to 15 years. I can't see apple being a 3 trillion or 6 trillion market cap so it doesn't pass the bar for me. I'd rather be in something like Stratasys, a smaller biotech or BIDU. Something where the market cap and addressable market has 5, 10 or 20 bagger plus potential. At the very least I want my stocks to beat the index. How many people think Apple will outpace the index at these lofty heights over the next 3 to 10 years?
You can take my advice and analysis or leave it. That is what makes a market folks. Let the flaming begin!
Sure, but not in the next 13-and-a-half months. That's just crazy talk.
No, it's not, really!
Yes, a number of things would have to come together, but that doesn't make it impossible. I'm not so sure that it will hit that number by the end of the 2014 financial year, which we're now in. But I'm not clear on whether they mean by sometime in the 2015 financial year, as that would be "next year" for Apple if we're talking the financial year. If so, then yes, I can certainly see that.
So several factors.
One would be that Apple is still slightly below the P/E of its peers.
Two is that as Apple's net rises, the stock can rise in sync without the P/E also rising.
Three is whether all of Apple's major product lines will continue doing well, including the iPad, which has been seeing declines. So if the watch does well, even if it isn't a blockbuster, and their enterprise initiatives do well, though that's a multi-year initiative, and the iPad doesn't keep sliding, then the stock could rise by maybe 20%, or more this financial year. That could be conservative.
And if all of this remained true, and investors think it will continue remaining true, and vice Apple an extra multiple, say, to a 20 P/E, then the valuation could get close to a trillion, to be sure, as long as Apple doesn't increase the buyback program too much.
So, certain,y by the end of "next year", being the end of their 2015 financial year, we could see this. It would on,y need the current $670 billion to rise by 20% over the 2014 financial year to bring the valuation to $804 billion. and then the 2015 financial year could see another 20% bringing it to $967 billion. A bit of exuberance, and it could get there, assuming that Apple doesn't buy another $50-100 billion back in stock over that time.
Why does Apple need to make $100B? You are assigning them a PE of 10 with 15-20% earnings growth. Total BS.
Apple is generating $50-$60B in free cash flows and will have $200B in cash in 2 years.
Sans cash that's a market cap of $800B.
$800B divided by $60B free cash flow a year = 13.3 cash flow/stock price
The S&P500 average is about 17
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
Negative earnings growth in a 1-3 year timeframe? Stay off the crack.
For apple to justify a trillion dollars it has to have at least 90-100B in PROFITS. Right now it has 60B. It would have to find a way to dump another 40B to its bottom line. No easy feat at this large number (yes law of large numbers does exist).
Not only would it have to find 100B in profits annually but it would have to show that it can sustain that level for at least 8 to 10 years. I'm not quite sure I see this as happening. Apple lives and dies by iphone now. ipad has fallen to the wayside and didn't make it to a consistent iPhone level seller.
For apple to have another huge upgrade cycle they have to find something. The something this time was simple. A large screen. It wasn't a gamble. Samsung and others proved this is what the market wanted. There is nothing out there now that Apple can trail that would create another huge upgrade cycle. I think a thicker phone with 2 to 3 day plus battery might be something or a folding screen. These could be 5 to 10 years off though.
If you are long you believe apple will sell iPhones for 10 years and grow yet another 50% from here and hold margin as well. That is the bet you are placing. I just can't drink that Kool-Aid. My advice for anyone long apple is to hold the stock and time your exit accordingly. At some point the stock will clearly not justify the risk whether that is a function of visibility or share price (or both).
One other investing goal I try to stick with is being in stocks I think at least could be a 5 or 10 bagger over the next 5 to 15 years. I can't see apple being a 3 trillion or 6 trillion market cap so it doesn't pass the bar for me. I'd rather be in something like Stratasys, a smaller biotech or BIDU. Something where the market cap and addressable market has 5, 10 or 20 bagger plus potential. At the very least I want my stocks to beat the index. How many people think Apple will outpace the index at these lofty heights over the next 3 to 10 years?
You can take my advice and analysis or leave it. That is what makes a market folks. Let the flaming begin!
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need it.
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need it.
You'll also notice... like AAPL's forward p/e at one time, Amazon's forward p/e is slowly coming down.
Looking at stocks over a 10 year period it becomes more obvious that technical always trumps psychological... even if psychological plays a big part at times.
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
Negative in one year... hmmmm... three years... maybe.
You can emulate x86 on the chip itself, Transmeta did it with their RISC processor and Nvidias new K1 uses similiar technology, binary translation (dynamic recompilation) where it's binary translation layer runs in software, at a lower level than the operating system. In fact the K1 Denver was originally intended to support both ARM and x86 code morphing technology from Transmeta, but was changed to the ARMv8-A 64-bit instruction set because Nvidia could not obtain a license to Intel's patents. You can still access this software layer and even flash the K1 with a custom emulation layer. This is one of the reasons why I like my Nvidia Jetson board so much, I get to experiment with things like x86 emulation on ARM. I currently use Tiny QEMU that only takes up 2.1mb, even has a DirectFB (framebuffer) interface, cool stuff. I've managed to get Windows XP up and running fairly easily, actually works quite well. So Apple could easily design their next SOC to include a x86 translation layer, that is if they were to get access to Intels pantents of course.
It's all risk and stock holders choose what risk they want. You can't be rational about the stock market in a lot of aspects.
Carl Icahn was just saying yesterday that there will be a correction in the next 3-5 years, but he said he doesn't know. He said it could be tomorrow or in three days.
No one really knows where things will head and that is especially for Apple.
No sour grapes here. Happy with 401k in index funds at a risk level I'm willing to accept.
People get too giddy about a single stock and really start to believe it will grow a lot more. That's all belief. It's a little based on facts and a lot on emotion and feeling.
Comments
... or premature immaculation
OH GOD. Get an education.
There is a HUGE difference between Apple late 2012 and now.
First off from 2010- mid 2012 Apple was growing earnings/revenue at a massive pace. It was growing 50-100% a quarter. Than at the end of 2012 beginning of 2013 revenue growth all but stalled and earnings growth went negative. That is a HUGE SHIFT. Because of this tons of GROWTH investors and HEDGE FUNDS dumped their stock. It took a very long time for the VALUE investors to become fully invested in Apple. That transition destroyed Apple's stock price.
Fast forward to 2014. Apple again is growing earnings at 15-20%. But since most of the Growth investors are already out the price has been steady. Even if Apple has a bad quarter the stock will stabalize because of the massive buyback, nice dividend, and the shareholder profile of value/income investors.
Saying that one bad quarter of iPhone sales will tank the stock is stupidity. Thats like saying one bad quarter of hamburger sales at McDonalds will tank the stock or one bad quarter of oil sales will tank Exxon.
C'mon, be respectful, Rogifan's hardly a troll like some of the others here.
One bad quarter would have repercussions, and you know it. I doubt it'd lose half its value, but it would be a negative effect.
Exactly. My point is that fixating on a trillion dollars as some kind of goal or marker point is deeply irrational. It only has meaning, like all even numbers ending in zero, because we have ten fingers. That's how primitive this stuff is.
We can't do anything about it, but I'm saying that it's bad juju to participate in gloating about it. It's shameful, really, how grubby this number worship is. There are many warnings in literature about it. It falls under the "hubris" rubric. Shelley on contemplating the ruins of Ozymandias: "Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair."
You're half right. The market has never been rational when it comes to apple.
You're half wrong. There is a lot fundamentally different Apple:
Highest iphone sales in history and rising
Apple pay
Apple watch coming
Highest EPS and rising
Deal with all carriers in china
Vast expansion in India
Worlds largest capital return program
...To name just a few
For apple to justify a trillion dollars it has to have at least 90-100B in PROFITS. Right now it has 60B. It would have to find a way to dump another 40B to its bottom line. No easy feat at this large number (yes law of large numbers does exist).
Not only would it have to find 100B in profits annually but it would have to show that it can sustain that level for at least 8 to 10 years. I'm not quite sure I see this as happening. Apple lives and dies by iphone now. ipad has fallen to the wayside and didn't make it to a consistent iPhone level seller.
For apple to have another huge upgrade cycle they have to find something. The something this time was simple. A large screen. It wasn't a gamble. Samsung and others proved this is what the market wanted. There is nothing out there now that Apple can trail that would create another huge upgrade cycle. I think a thicker phone with 2 to 3 day plus battery might be something or a folding screen. These could be 5 to 10 years off though.
If you are long you believe apple will sell iPhones for 10 years and grow yet another 50% from here and hold margin as well. That is the bet you are placing. I just can't drink that Kool-Aid. My advice for anyone long apple is to hold the stock and time your exit accordingly. At some point the stock will clearly not justify the risk whether that is a function of visibility or share price (or both).
One other investing goal I try to stick with is being in stocks I think at least could be a 5 or 10 bagger over the next 5 to 15 years. I can't see apple being a 3 trillion or 6 trillion market cap so it doesn't pass the bar for me. I'd rather be in something like Stratasys, a smaller biotech or BIDU. Something where the market cap and addressable market has 5, 10 or 20 bagger plus potential. At the very least I want my stocks to beat the index. How many people think Apple will outpace the index at these lofty heights over the next 3 to 10 years?
You can take my advice and analysis or leave it. That is what makes a market folks. Let the flaming begin!
C'mon, be respectful, Rogifan's hardly a troll like some of the others here.
One bad quarter would have repercussions, and you know it. I doubt it'd lose half its value, but it would be a negative effect.
We all know which one of the two is actually a troll. lol
LOL (which I have never used until now, so I really mean it.)
No, it's not, really!
Yes, a number of things would have to come together, but that doesn't make it impossible. I'm not so sure that it will hit that number by the end of the 2014 financial year, which we're now in. But I'm not clear on whether they mean by sometime in the 2015 financial year, as that would be "next year" for Apple if we're talking the financial year. If so, then yes, I can certainly see that.
So several factors.
One would be that Apple is still slightly below the P/E of its peers.
Two is that as Apple's net rises, the stock can rise in sync without the P/E also rising.
Three is whether all of Apple's major product lines will continue doing well, including the iPad, which has been seeing declines. So if the watch does well, even if it isn't a blockbuster, and their enterprise initiatives do well, though that's a multi-year initiative, and the iPad doesn't keep sliding, then the stock could rise by maybe 20%, or more this financial year. That could be conservative.
And if all of this remained true, and investors think it will continue remaining true, and vice Apple an extra multiple, say, to a 20 P/E, then the valuation could get close to a trillion, to be sure, as long as Apple doesn't increase the buyback program too much.
So, certain,y by the end of "next year", being the end of their 2015 financial year, we could see this. It would on,y need the current $670 billion to rise by 20% over the 2014 financial year to bring the valuation to $804 billion. and then the 2015 financial year could see another 20% bringing it to $967 billion. A bit of exuberance, and it could get there, assuming that Apple doesn't buy another $50-100 billion back in stock over that time.
What flaming BS.
Why does Apple need to make $100B? You are assigning them a PE of 10 with 15-20% earnings growth. Total BS.
Apple is generating $50-$60B in free cash flows and will have $200B in cash in 2 years.
Sans cash that's a market cap of $800B.
$800B divided by $60B free cash flow a year = 13.3 cash flow/stock price
The S&P500 average is about 17
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
Negative earnings growth in a 1-3 year timeframe? Stay off the crack.
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need it.
I do hope you don't give investment advice.
No. That's not true. It doesn't work that way. Stock price is as much a psychological number as a technical one. Look at Amazon, and tell me why the stock is priced where it is. It's expectations that make a stock price as much as anything else.
Apple stands a very good chance of hitting a trillion. When exactly, is another story. Good luck with Stratasys, you'll need it.
You'll also notice... like AAPL's forward p/e at one time, Amazon's forward p/e is slowly coming down.
Looking at stocks over a 10 year period it becomes more obvious that technical always trumps psychological... even if psychological plays a big part at times.
Why? Because they won't have 15-20% earnings growth. IT will be zero or negative within 12-36 months. Mark my post and if it hasn't gone negative in that timeframe you can tell me it is BS. We already saw iphone sales fall before. You think it won't happen again? Trees don't grow to the sky
Negative in one year... hmmmm... three years... maybe.
I'll mark your post.
Oh, IDK ... at the current 5.865B shares outstanding ~$170 (~+55) would do the job ... and it's ~+22 since the split.
The big unknowns, IMO are ?Watch, ?TV, ?Pay and ?IBM ...
?Pay could provide tremendous entre/leverage to market/finance Apple products into emerging countries with populations in the billions ...
?IBM could result in massive penetration of iOS devices into IT, enterprise and institutions (and secondary sales to their employees for home use).
On another thread, @Relic posted that the Nvidia ARM chip is capable of acceptable emulation of x86 thru hardware/software ...
The A8X, likely, is capable of doing that too!
I guarantee you'll be wasting your time tracking such a broad guess.
the higher AAPL stock price is, Apple will buy less shares back, i guess. This will also be negative for AAPL in long term i guess.
It's all risk and stock holders choose what risk they want. You can't be rational about the stock market in a lot of aspects.
Carl Icahn was just saying yesterday that there will be a correction in the next 3-5 years, but he said he doesn't know. He said it could be tomorrow or in three days.
No one really knows where things will head and that is especially for Apple.
No sour grapes here. Happy with 401k in index funds at a risk level I'm willing to accept.
People get too giddy about a single stock and really start to believe it will grow a lot more. That's all belief. It's a little based on facts and a lot on emotion and feeling.
These stories are hilarious, though.
Amazon's PE was 3000 just a few quarters ago. Apple's is at 17.7.
Thank you for agreeing with me.