Apple sells 47.5M iPhones in record-breaking Q3, revenue jumps 33% to $49.6B

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  • Reply 141 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Buy when others are afraid, sell when others are greedy.


    That's just standard contrarian investing mantra. What does that have to do with rationality (or efficiency)?

     

    I like -- and agree a lot with -- Buffet, btw.

  • Reply 142 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member

    The great tech seer Brian X. Chen of the New York Times now wanders into investing psychoanalysis territory: "While the quarter’s phone sales were one-third higher than a year ago, they fell short of analysts’ estimates, and the stock fell." http://nyti.ms/1TOWUK1

  • Reply 143 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,567member
    Um... no. I gave you a link from Robert Shiller, who won a Nobel Prize for his ideas on rational expectations and market efficiency.

    But you're certainly welcome to think that all links are the same. I can't stop that.

    They are all saying the same thing as far as definitions go. I don't know what you're so upset about. This is a simple concept. The disagreements aren't in what rationality is, or efficiency. They disagree as to whether they are efficient, or rational, or by how much, or when, or how we can tell. That's different. Then it does become complex.

    Is that what you're arguing here?
  • Reply 144 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post

     
     I don't know what you're so upset about. This is a simple concept. 


    I am not upset in the least. :) 

  • Reply 145 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,567member
    The great tech seer Brian X. Chen of the New York Times now wanders into investing psychoanalysis territory: "While the quarter’s phone sales were one-third higher than a year ago, they fell short of analysts’ estimates, and the stock fell." http://nyti.ms/1TOWUK1

    This isn't the first time Chen has said something stupid. He's not the only one. Some writers have problems in getting even the simplest thing correct.

    I read an article today about the electronic sim that Apple and Samsung are negotiating with the GSM group. He stated that this was a great idea, because not every one has the equipment and experience to change sims. Really, he said that!

    I told my daughter, and she began to laugh. So I suppose we can't all get the paper clip, or figure out how to stick it in the hole.

    It's too bad that some of these writers have influence, because people read these articles, and believe what's said.
  • Reply 146 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,567member
    I am not upset in the least. :)  

    Well, I hope not, because you seemed to be. But what about what I said in that post? What is your argument here, the definition, or the consequences? I don't mind discussing it.
  • Reply 147 of 187
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,567member
    sog35 wrote: »

    thats why you need to keep up with the stock and current tech trends.

    If Apple loses its edge it may be time to sell.  But I see no signs of that.  In fact I think Apple is more powerful and is run better now than ever before.  It has its tenticals in more areas then every before - Financial (ApplePay), Security (TouchID), Cars, TV, Home automation, wearables, ect.  Basically anything that has a computer Apple can disrupt.

    What I think isn't understood about Apple is that even though they have what I read as described as the best upper management team in the planet, they will make the occasional error. After all, they aren't robots. But they recover.

    And really, as a business, all they need to do is to be a little bit better than everyone else. And they certainly are that!
  • Reply 148 of 187
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,407member
    melgross wrote: »

    Well, I hope not, because you seemed to be. But what about what I said in that post? What is your argument here, the definition, or the consequences? I don't mind discussing it.

    I think I laid out my argument, definitions, and consequences quite clearly in Post #97 (sorry to have to refer you to Page #3 of this thread!).

    Anything more I have to say on this would simply be attempting to say the same thing. Differently.
  • Reply 149 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    yojimbo007 wrote: »
    And what is the perspective of those who get it? If you care to elaborate ?

    Just because the markets don't behave the way you expect doesn't mean that something strange let alone illegal is happening.
  • Reply 150 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    sog35 wrote: »

    I agree.  Apple would really need to mess up big time FOR MANY YEARS for it tank.

    They have $200 billion in cash, ridiculously loyal customers, and the most valuable brand and mind share in the world.

    Define tank. We've already seen the stock drop 40% after reporting lower YOY earnings. If that's not tanking then I would be curious to know your definition. I would also be interested to know how you believe their cash reserves might be used to mitigate the effects of declining earnings.
  • Reply 151 of 187
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 1,304member
    I can' think of one other company that Wall Street would be disappointed in with those earnings figures. I can think of thousands of other companies who would pray to have a quarter like that.
  • Reply 152 of 187
    Why does Apple have to grow? If they maintain the status quo, in 6 years they'll add 450 million in cash and basically can retire all of their stock.
  • Reply 153 of 187
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member

    what is bizarre but no longer surprising is that Apple's huge actual YOY jump in sales and profits is totally ignored by all those pundits who instead paint a negative outcome due to "expectations," while the same pundits react to MS's catastrophic quarterly results with "not so bad".

     

    not so bad? finally admitting that the Nokia take over was a total disaster resulting in a $7.5 BILLION write off? and that Windows Phone is clearly a total fail dead man walking on life support as a direct result?

     

    but i guess they already "expected" that. anyway, we all did.

     

    now it's time to start the Windows Phone Death (not the kind you wear) Watch.

  • Reply 154 of 187
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member

    I believe from wall street point of view there could be multiple reasons for stock going down.

    1)Weightage   of iPhone revenue in total Apple revenue.

    It seems that Analysts may be saying that 2/3rd of sales coming from  for company with  0.75 trillion dollar market cap is too much dependency on single product for such a big company.

    They may be expecting better diversification for continued long term sustainability of success.

    Not having bumper Watch sales may had little impact of about 1-2%  in today's decline. 

     

    2)Declining sequential growth from 2nd qtr to 3rd qtr from 2015 to 2014.

    For 2015, revenue declined from 2nd qtr to 3rd qtr was 23%

    For 2014, revenue declined from 2nd qtr to 3rd qtr was 17%

     

    Fear of iPhone sales topping out is always fear for every quarter for analyst.

    Particularly all major US carriers are promoting non contract pricing structure.

     

    There is no doubt that iPhone is very good quality phone and it can last way more then 2 years.

    So if you are getting  discount as non-contract plan and your phone is still very usable with almost latest tech, people may feel that they can delay purchasing for another 1-2 years.

    Proof 1:  Think of iPad as best example having six quarters of declines

    Proof 2:  Most of the growth for iPhones came from outside US Market/New Market. If you see US Market growth, it is almost saturated as far as growth is concerned for Apple.

     

    This may have contributed another 1-2% drop in price

     

    3)Everyone knew that people were waiting for larger screen iPhone and that will give exponential growth whenever it happens. 

    That happened now. Now We have large screen iPhone for over 8 months.

     

    Analyst may be saying that even for upcoming year, there will be good growth as people are normally on 2 year cycle, so 1 more year is still left on this growth cycle.

     

    Lets face the fact that now with iPhone 6 and upcoming 6S with higher ram/A9, phone is already ahead in almost all matrics compared to regular PC.

    What is the probability of person going from iPhone4/4s/5/5s to 6 or 6S vs person going from 6/6s to 7/7s

    More closer We approach to this scenario , more negativity will keep coming, unless Apple show some breakthrough in iPhone, which will convince people to upgrade their phone with same rate.

    This may had another 2-3% impact on price decline. 

     

    As said above, analyst sees that this is coming and that is the exact reason they want more diversification in revenue.

     

    Why apple was up 40% last year? Because every one expected that iPhone sales will go through roof once bigger screen phones comes out (In addition to new product Watch and Pay)

    Everyone knows apple is good at innovation and I believe whenever next innovation comes, stock will resume its uptrend.

     

    No need to flame me, I am just putting general analyst opinion from what I read at few good sites.

  • Reply 155 of 187

    it is interesting to see carriers move away from the subsidized model, though to what benefit for the consumer, it still doesn't seem to clear.  There are excellent prepaid plans in Ireland and UK for pay as you go users due to competition from companies like three and Meteor in Ireland, so paying for a phone up front isn't such a problem out there, but here, prepaid plans don't seem to be much better than the postpaid plans, but maybe this will change.

  • Reply 156 of 187
    shahhet2shahhet2 Posts: 149member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post

     



    I bought 5,000 shares back then in 2004. It didn't seem like a lot of money then. Well, it wasn't, at $16.93 a share. I've been sorry I didn't buy a lot more. I was going to buy 10,000, even more, but decided not to. Diversity, and all that. So it was fairly small investment for me. But it's become a big one over time.


    Are you telling us that you now own 5000*7 = 35000 stocks of Apple or holding over 4.5 million dollars of Apple stock?

    Lets say you have little diversified portfolio, where you have 50% appl stocks and 50% rest of stocks, you have your portfolio close to 10mil $.

    What are you doing here, go and enjoy your world cruise  or may be own one ;)

  • Reply 157 of 187
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,165member
    Just because the markets don't behave the way you expect doesn't mean that something strange let alone illegal is happening.

    You must be living under a rock or something if you dont think something strange has actually happened ...
  • Reply 158 of 187
    ds92jzds92jz Posts: 90member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post



    And we're down 8%. Why? Because we didn't crack 50M phones this quarter?! Give me a break...

    Who's "we"? You are part of Apple?!

  • Reply 159 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    yojimbo007 wrote: »
    You must be living under a rock or something if you dont think something strange has actually happened ...

    Excellent argument. You don't get it, so anyone who does, is living under a rock.
  • Reply 160 of 187
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    ...
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